# 📦 Imports
import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
import seaborn as sns

# ✅ Étape 1 - Récupération des données
data = yf.download('^GSPC', start='2000-01-01', end='2025-04-01')

# ✅ Étape 2 - Calcul des log-returns
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data = data.dropna()

# ✅ Étape 3 - Préparation des données pour le modèle
returns = data['Log_Returns'].values.reshape(-1, 1)

# ✅ Étape 4 - HMM à 3 états
model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=1000)
model.fit(returns)

# ✅ Étape 5 - Prédiction des états cachés
hidden_states = model.predict(returns)

# ✅ Étape 5 bis - Reclasser les régimes par ordre de volatilité
state_variances = [np.var(returns[hidden_states == i]) for i in range(3)]
sorted_states = np.argsort(state_variances)  # indices des régimes triés
remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sorted_states)}
remapped_states = np.vectorize(remap.get)(hidden_states)
data['Hidden_State'] = remapped_states

# ✅ Étape 6 - Visualisation des régimes
colors = ['green', 'orange', 'red']  # 0 = calme, 2 = crise
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 7))
for i in range(3):
    state = (data['Hidden_State'] == i)
    plt.plot(data.index[state], data['Log_Returns'][state], '.', label=f"Régime {i}", color=colors[i], alpha=0.6)

plt.title("Régimes de marché détectés par un HMM à 3 états sur le S&P 500")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel("Log-returns")
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# ✅ Étape 7 - Statistiques de chaque régime
print("Statistiques par régime détecté (classés par volatilité croissante) :\n")
for i in range(3):
    mask = (data['Hidden_State'] == i)
    mean = data['Log_Returns'][mask].mean()
    var = data['Log_Returns'][mask].var()
    print(f"Régime {i} : Moyenne = {mean:.5f}, Variance = {var:.5f}")

# ✅ Volatilité implicite estimée
data['Variance_estimee'] = [model.covars_[hidden_states[i]][0][0] for i in range(len(hidden_states))]
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 5))
plt.plot(data.index, np.sqrt(data['Variance_estimee']) * np.sqrt(252))  # Annualisée
plt.title("Volatilité implicite estimée par le HMM")
plt.ylabel("Volatilité (annualisée)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()

# ✅ Bande verticale colorée
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 6))
ax.plot(data.index, data['Log_Returns'], color='black', lw=0.5, label="Log-returns")
colors_map = {0: 'green', 1: 'orange', 2: 'red'}
hidden_colors = data['Hidden_State'].map(colors_map)
for i in range(len(data)):
    ax.axvline(data.index[i], color=hidden_colors[i], alpha=0.01)

ax.set_title("Log-Returns avec régimes de volatilité détectés (triés)")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# ✅ Durée moyenne par régime
print("\nDurée moyenne par régime :")
for i in range(3):
    durations = data['Hidden_State'].eq(i).astype(int).groupby((data['Hidden_State'] != i).cumsum()).sum()
    print(f"Régime {i} : {durations.mean():.2f} jours")

# ✅ Matrice de transition
# On réorganise les lignes/colonnes de la matrice pour correspondre au nouveau mapping
trans_mat_sorted = model.transmat_[sorted_states, :][:, sorted_states]
trans_df = pd.DataFrame(trans_mat_sorted, columns=[f'Régime {i}' for i in range(3)], index=[f'Régime {i}' for i in range(3)])
sns.heatmap(trans_df, annot=True, cmap='Blues', fmt=".2f")
plt.title("Matrice de transition du HMM (triée par volatilité)")
plt.show()

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
Model is not converging.  Current: 20505.439240821124 is not greater than 20505.443745915145. Delta is -0.0045050940207147505

Statistiques par régime détecté (classés par volatilité croissante) :

Régime 0 : Moyenne = 0.00088, Variance = 0.00004
Régime 1 : Moyenne = -0.00056, Variance = 0.00020
Régime 2 : Moyenne = -0.00250, Variance = 0.00134

Durée moyenne par régime :
Régime 0 : 1.44 jours
Régime 1 : 0.59 jours
Régime 2 : 0.04 jours

# Dernier état estimé
last_state = hidden_states[-1]

# Matrice de transition
A = model.transmat_

# Probabilité d'être dans chaque état demain
proba_next = A[last_state]

# Affichage
print("\n Prévision pour demain :")
for i, p in enumerate(proba_next):
    print(f"→ Probabilité d'être en Régime {i} : {p:.2%}")

# État le plus probable
regime_prevu = np.argmax(proba_next)
print(f"\n Régime le plus probable demain : Régime {regime_prevu}")

import seaborn as sns

plt.figure(figsize=(6, 4))
sns.barplot(x=[f"Régime {i}" for i in range(3)], y=proba_next, palette=colors)
plt.title("Probabilité de chaque régime demain")
plt.ylim(0, 1)
plt.ylabel("Probabilité")
plt.grid(True, axis='y')
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

 Prévision pour demain :
→ Probabilité d'être en Régime 0 : 2.23%
→ Probabilité d'être en Régime 1 : 0.44%
→ Probabilité d'être en Régime 2 : 97.34%

 Régime le plus probable demain : Régime 2

STATIC HMM

# On prédit le régime du lendemain pour chaque jour
predicted_next = []

for t in range(len(hidden_states) - 1):
    current_state = hidden_states[t]
    probs = model.transmat_[current_state]
    predicted_state = np.argmax(probs)
    predicted_next.append(predicted_state)

# Décalage pour aligner avec les returns de t+1
predicted_next = [np.nan] + predicted_next  # Ajout d'un NaN pour que ça fasse la même longueur
data['Predicted_Regime'] = predicted_next

# Stratégie : long uniquement si régime prédit = 0
data['Strategy_Returns'] = data['Log_Returns'] * (data['Predicted_Regime'] == 0)

# Cumul des rendements
data['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + data['Strategy_Returns']).cumprod()
data['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns']).cumprod()

# 📊 Visualisation de la perf
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
plt.plot(data.index, data['Cumulative_Market'], label='Buy & Hold (S&P500)', color='black', linestyle='--')
plt.plot(data.index, data['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='Stratégie HMM (long si régime 0)', color='green')
plt.title("Performance cumulée : HMM vs Buy & Hold")
plt.ylabel("Capital (base 1)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

perf = data[['Strategy_Returns', 'Log_Returns']].dropna()
mean_strategy = perf['Strategy_Returns'].mean() * 252
mean_market = perf['Log_Returns'].mean() * 252
vol_strategy = perf['Strategy_Returns'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
vol_market = perf['Log_Returns'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_strategy = mean_strategy / vol_strategy
sharpe_market = mean_market / vol_market

print("📊 Résumé des performances annualisées :")
print(f"Stratégie HMM : Rendement = {mean_strategy:.2%}, Volatilité = {vol_strategy:.2%}, Sharpe = {sharpe_strategy:.2f}")
print(f"Buy & Hold     : Rendement = {mean_market:.2%}, Volatilité = {vol_market:.2%}, Sharpe = {sharpe_market:.2f}")

📊 Résumé des performances annualisées :
Stratégie HMM : Rendement = 11.40%, Volatilité = 8.13%, Sharpe = 1.40
Buy & Hold     : Rendement = 5.36%, Volatilité = 19.39%, Sharpe = 0.28

# ✅ Prédiction du régime de demain pour chaque jour (multi-régime)
predicted_next = []

for t in range(len(hidden_states) - 1):
    current_state = hidden_states[t]
    next_probs = model.transmat_[current_state]
    next_state_pred = np.argmax(next_probs)
    # Re-mappe selon l’ordre trié
    next_state_remapped = remap[next_state_pred]
    predicted_next.append(next_state_remapped)

predicted_next = [np.nan] + predicted_next  # alignement temporel
data['Predicted_Regime'] = predicted_next

# ✅ Signal de position : +1 = long (régime 0), 0 = cash (régime 1), -1 = short (régime 2)
position = data['Predicted_Regime'].map({0: 1, 1: 0, 2: -1})
data['Position'] = position

# ✅ Calcul des rendements de la stratégie
data['Strategy_Multi'] = data['Log_Returns'] * data['Position']
data['Cumulative_Multi'] = (1 + data['Strategy_Multi']).cumprod()
data['Cumulative_BH'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns']).cumprod()

# ✅ Visualisation de la perf
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
plt.plot(data.index, data['Cumulative_BH'], label='Buy & Hold (S&P 500)', linestyle='--', color='gray')
plt.plot(data.index, data['Cumulative_Multi'], label='Stratégie HMM multi-régime', color='purple')
plt.title("Performance cumulée : stratégie multi-régime HMM vs Buy & Hold")
plt.ylabel("Capital (base 1)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# ✅ Résumé des performances annualisées
perf = data[['Strategy_Multi', 'Log_Returns']].dropna()

mean_multi = perf['Strategy_Multi'].mean() * 252
vol_multi = perf['Strategy_Multi'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_multi = mean_multi / vol_multi

mean_bh = perf['Log_Returns'].mean() * 252
vol_bh = perf['Log_Returns'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_bh = mean_bh / vol_bh

print("\n📊 Performances annualisées :")
print(f"Stratégie Multi-régime : Rendement = {mean_multi:.2%}, Volatilité = {vol_multi:.2f}, Sharpe = {sharpe_multi:.2f}")
print(f"Buy & Hold             : Rendement = {mean_bh:.2%}, Volatilité = {vol_bh:.2f}, Sharpe = {sharpe_bh:.2f}")

📊 Performances annualisées :
Stratégie Multi-régime : Rendement = 12.75%, Volatilité = 0.14, Sharpe = 0.92
Buy & Hold             : Rendement = 5.51%, Volatilité = 0.19, Sharpe = 0.28

pip install streamlit yfinance hmmlearn matplotlib seaborn numpy pandas

  Input In [51]
    pip install streamlit yfinance hmmlearn matplotlib seaborn numpy pandas
        ^
SyntaxError: invalid syntax

SV HMM STATIC

# 📦 Imports
import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
import seaborn as sns

# 📥 1. Données
data = yf.download('^GSPC', start='2000-01-01', end='2025-04-01')
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data.dropna(inplace=True)
returns = data['Log_Returns'].values.reshape(-1, 1)

# 🤖 2. HMM à 3 régimes + Viterbi
model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=1000)
model.fit(returns)
viterbi_states = model.predict(returns)  # Viterbi path

# 🔢 3. Trier les régimes par volatilité
variances = [np.var(returns[viterbi_states == i]) for i in range(3)]
sorted_states = np.argsort(variances)
remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sorted_states)}
S_t = np.vectorize(remap.get)(viterbi_states)
data['Regime'] = S_t

# 📊 4. Préparer log(R²) pour estimer h_t
data['Log_R2'] = np.log(data['Log_Returns'] ** 2 + 1e-8)

# 🔁 5. Estimation AR(1) par régime
params = {}
h_t = np.zeros(len(data))

for state in range(3):
    idx = data['Regime'] == state
    h_obs = data['Log_R2'][idx].values
    h_lag = np.roll(h_obs, 1)
    h_obs = h_obs[1:]
    h_lag = h_lag[1:]

    model_ar = LinearRegression()
    model_ar.fit(h_lag.reshape(-1, 1), h_obs)
    phi = model_ar.coef_[0]
    mu = model_ar.intercept_ / (1 - phi)
    resid = h_obs - model_ar.predict(h_lag.reshape(-1, 1))
    sigma_eta = np.std(resid)

    params[state] = {'mu': mu, 'phi': phi, 'sigma_eta': sigma_eta}

    indices = np.where(data['Regime'] == state)[0]
    h_t[indices[0]] = mu
    for i in range(1, len(indices)):
        t = indices[i]
        t_prev = indices[i - 1]
        if t == t_prev + 1:
            h_t[t] = mu + phi * (h_t[t - 1] - mu)
        else:
            h_t[t] = mu

# 🔢 6. Ajout de h_t et σ_t
data['h_t'] = h_t
data['Sigma_t'] = np.exp(h_t / 2)

# 📈 7. Volatilité implicite
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 5))
plt.plot(data.index, data['Sigma_t'] * np.sqrt(252), label='Vol. implicite annualisée')
plt.title("Volatilité implicite estimée (SV-HMM + Viterbi)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel("Vol annualisée")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 💼 8. Stratégie : long si régime 0, cash si 1, short si 2
position = data['Regime'].map({0: 1, 1: 0, 2: -1})
data['Strategy_SV'] = data['Log_Returns'] * position
data['Cumulative_SV'] = (1 + data['Strategy_SV']).cumprod()
data['Cumulative_BH'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns']).cumprod()

# 📊 9. Visualisation de la performance
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
plt.plot(data.index, data['Cumulative_BH'], label='Buy & Hold', linestyle='--', color='gray')
plt.plot(data.index, data['Cumulative_SV'], label='Stratégie SV-HMM + Viterbi', color='purple')
plt.title("Performance cumulée : stratégie SV-HMM (Viterbi) vs marché")
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 📈 10. Performances
perf = data[['Strategy_SV', 'Log_Returns']].dropna()
mean_sv = perf['Strategy_SV'].mean() * 252
vol_sv = perf['Strategy_SV'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_sv = mean_sv / vol_sv

mean_bh = perf['Log_Returns'].mean() * 252
vol_bh = perf['Log_Returns'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_bh = mean_bh / vol_bh

print("📊 Performances annualisées :")
print(f"Stratégie SV-HMM : Rendement = {mean_sv:.2%}, Vol = {vol_sv:.2f}, Sharpe = {sharpe_sv:.2f}")
print(f"Buy & Hold      : Rendement = {mean_bh:.2%}, Vol = {vol_bh:.2f}, Sharpe = {sharpe_bh:.2f}")

# 📊 11. Matrice de transition triée
mat_sorted = model.transmat_[sorted_states][:, sorted_states]
plt.figure(figsize=(4, 3))
sns.heatmap(mat_sorted, annot=True, cmap='Blues', fmt=".2f",
            xticklabels=[f"Régime {i}" for i in range(3)],
            yticklabels=[f"Régime {i}" for i in range(3)])
plt.title("🔁 Matrice de transition (triée)")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 📊 12. Durée moyenne par régime
print("\n⏱️ Durée moyenne par régime :")
for i in range(3):
    durations = data['Regime'].eq(i).astype(int).groupby((data['Regime'] != i).cumsum()).sum()
    print(f"Régime {i} : {durations.mean():.2f} jours")

# 📊 13. Statistiques par régime
print("\n📊 Statistiques par régime (log-returns) :")
for i in range(3):
    sub = data[data['Regime'] == i]
    mean = sub['Log_Returns'].mean()
    var = sub['Log_Returns'].var()
    ann_vol = np.sqrt(var) * np.sqrt(252)
    print(f"Régime {i} : Moyenne = {mean:.5f}, Variance = {var:.5f}, Vol. annualisée = {ann_vol:.2%}")

# 🎨 14. Visualisation des régimes
colors_map = {0: 'green', 1: 'orange', 2: 'red'}
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
for i in range(3):
    mask = data['Regime'] == i
    plt.plot(data.index[mask], data['Log_Returns'][mask], '.', label=f"Régime {i}", color=colors_map[i], alpha=0.5)

plt.title("Régimes de marché détectés par SV-HMM (Viterbi)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel("Log-returns")
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed

📊 Performances annualisées :
Stratégie SV-HMM : Rendement = 15.54%, Vol = 0.14, Sharpe = 1.13
Buy & Hold      : Rendement = 5.36%, Vol = 0.19, Sharpe = 0.28

/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_36578/2729300263.py:113: UserWarning: Glyph 128257 (\N{CLOCKWISE RIGHTWARDS AND LEFTWARDS OPEN CIRCLE ARROWS}) missing from current font.
  plt.tight_layout()
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/IPython/core/pylabtools.py:151: UserWarning: Glyph 128257 (\N{CLOCKWISE RIGHTWARDS AND LEFTWARDS OPEN CIRCLE ARROWS}) missing from current font.
  fig.canvas.print_figure(bytes_io, **kw)

⏱️ Durée moyenne par régime :
Régime 0 : 1.44 jours
Régime 1 : 0.59 jours
Régime 2 : 0.04 jours

📊 Statistiques par régime (log-returns) :
Régime 0 : Moyenne = 0.00088, Variance = 0.00004, Vol. annualisée = 10.19%
Régime 1 : Moyenne = -0.00055, Variance = 0.00020, Vol. annualisée = 22.30%
Régime 2 : Moyenne = -0.00273, Variance = 0.00139, Vol. annualisée = 59.16%

from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm

# Paramètres
rolling_window = 1000
refit_every = 10
positions = []
dates = []
returns_strategy = []

model_roll = None
viterbi_states = None
last_transmat = None
last_state = None
remap = None

# 📊 Boucle principale
loop_range = range(rolling_window, len(data) - 1)
for t in tqdm(loop_range, desc="⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes"):
    window_returns = returns[t - rolling_window:t]

    if (t - rolling_window) % refit_every == 0:
        try:
            if np.var(window_returns) < 1e-7:
                continue

            model_roll = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=100)
            model_roll.fit(window_returns)
            viterbi_states = model_roll.predict(window_returns)

            vols = [np.var(window_returns[viterbi_states == i]) for i in range(3)]
            order = np.argsort(vols)
            remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(order)}
            viterbi_states = np.vectorize(remap.get)(viterbi_states)

            last_state = viterbi_states[-1]
            last_transmat = model_roll.transmat_[order][:, order]

        except:
            continue

    if model_roll is None or last_transmat is None:
        continue

    # 🔮 Prédiction du régime de demain
    proba_next = last_transmat[last_state]
    pred_next_state = np.argmax(proba_next)
    last_state = pred_next_state

    # ✅ Stratégie : long = 0, cash = 1, short = 2
    pos = {0: 1, 1: 0, 2: -1}[pred_next_state]
    r_tomorrow = data['Log_Returns'].iloc[t + 1]

    positions.append(pos)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])
    returns_strategy.append(pos * r_tomorrow)

# 📊 Résultats
df_seq3 = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy
}).set_index('Date')

df_seq3['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df_seq3['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df_seq3['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df_seq3.index]).cumprod()

# 📈 Courbe de performance
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
plt.plot(df_seq3.index, df_seq3['Cumulative_Market'], label='Buy & Hold', linestyle='--', color='gray')
plt.plot(df_seq3.index, df_seq3['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='Stratégie HMM semi-séquentielle (3 régimes)', color='darkblue')
plt.title("Performance cumulée : stratégie HMM semi-séquentielle (3 régimes)")
plt.ylabel("Capital (base 1)")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 📊 Statistiques
mean_seq3 = df_seq3['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol_seq3 = df_seq3['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_seq3 = mean_seq3 / vol_seq3

print("\n📊 Performance HMM semi-séquentielle (3 régimes) :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé = {mean_seq3:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée = {vol_seq3:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe ratio = {sharpe_seq3:.2f}")

⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   0%|     | 11/5347 [00:00<02:31, 35.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   1%|     | 61/5347 [00:02<04:05, 21.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   1%|     | 71/5347 [00:02<03:37, 24.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2972.816267392168 is not greater than 2972.83005855996. Delta is -0.01379116779207834
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   2%|     | 81/5347 [00:02<02:48, 31.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2980.116576527204 is not greater than 2980.131311364781. Delta is -0.01473483757717986
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   2%|    | 101/5347 [00:03<02:48, 31.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2992.7304576005326 is not greater than 2992.7382328508456. Delta is -0.007775250312988646
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   2%|    | 111/5347 [00:03<02:26, 35.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2995.556788435407 is not greater than 2995.583686946169. Delta is -0.02689851076229388
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   2%|    | 121/5347 [00:03<02:03, 42.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2992.7542545515953 is not greater than 2992.792432381505. Delta is -0.038177829909727734
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   2%|    | 131/5347 [00:03<01:59, 43.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3001.605174413493 is not greater than 3001.6831901741157. Delta is -0.07801576062274762
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   3%|    | 141/5347 [00:03<01:49, 47.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3005.006315785663 is not greater than 3005.180246866017. Delta is -0.17393108035412297
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   3%|    | 151/5347 [00:04<01:42, 50.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2946.4424713664343 is not greater than 2946.5068795580974. Delta is -0.06440819166300571
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   3%|    | 161/5347 [00:04<01:36, 53.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3000.958741155782 is not greater than 3000.9718596462403. Delta is -0.013118490458509768
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   4%|▏   | 201/5347 [00:05<03:09, 27.13it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   4%|▏   | 211/5347 [00:06<03:22, 25.41it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   4%|▏   | 221/5347 [00:06<03:30, 24.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3037.153898778237 is not greater than 3037.1834437453786. Delta is -0.02954496714164634
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   5%|▏   | 241/5347 [00:07<03:07, 27.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3049.9118008469927 is not greater than 3049.987753456327. Delta is -0.07595260933430836
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   5%|▏   | 251/5347 [00:07<02:34, 33.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3067.503267097355 is not greater than 3067.8211171175567. Delta is -0.3178500202016039
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   5%|▏   | 261/5347 [00:07<02:14, 37.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3067.0342010869276 is not greater than 3067.035782511919. Delta is -0.0015814249914001266
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   5%|▏   | 271/5347 [00:07<02:09, 39.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3070.321991108488 is not greater than 3070.3670313917833. Delta is -0.04504028329529319
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   5%|▏   | 281/5347 [00:07<02:05, 40.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   5%|▏   | 291/5347 [00:08<02:30, 33.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3086.4775099207636 is not greater than 3086.596382995813. Delta is -0.11887307504957789
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   6%|▏   | 301/5347 [00:08<02:30, 33.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3098.7108969838405 is not greater than 3098.9562900929045. Delta is -0.24539310906402534
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   6%|▏   | 311/5347 [00:08<02:22, 35.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3100.5313879077044 is not greater than 3100.589279331648. Delta is -0.057891423943601694
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   6%|▏   | 321/5347 [00:09<02:22, 35.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3115.1565975821763 is not greater than 3115.157801409768. Delta is -0.001203827591780282
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   6%|▏   | 331/5347 [00:09<02:03, 40.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3108.508079673272 is not greater than 3108.6427537591867. Delta is -0.13467408591486674
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   6%|▎   | 341/5347 [00:09<01:48, 46.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3119.781632693958 is not greater than 3120.18284726186. Delta is -0.40121456790211596
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   7%|▎   | 361/5347 [00:09<01:28, 56.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3120.7410387760056 is not greater than 3120.833628196154. Delta is -0.09258942014866989
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   7%|▎   | 371/5347 [00:10<01:36, 51.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3132.0419502175178 is not greater than 3132.147272170916. Delta is -0.10532195339828831
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   7%|▎   | 381/5347 [00:10<01:29, 55.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3137.418290002255 is not greater than 3137.4380043785827. Delta is -0.019714376327556238
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   7%|▎   | 391/5347 [00:10<01:19, 62.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3140.948288297597 is not greater than 3142.552641654428. Delta is -1.6043533568308703
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   7%|▎   | 401/5347 [00:10<01:13, 66.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3145.7674176815153 is not greater than 3145.9093377084837. Delta is -0.14192002696836425
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   8%|▎   | 411/5347 [00:10<01:17, 63.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3146.2027133850343 is not greater than 3146.364286605644. Delta is -0.16157322060962542
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   8%|▎   | 431/5347 [00:11<01:40, 48.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3174.249249219069 is not greater than 3174.327495896866. Delta is -0.07824667779686933
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   8%|▎   | 441/5347 [00:11<02:01, 40.21it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   9%|▎   | 461/5347 [00:12<02:22, 34.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3183.5088674371186 is not greater than 3183.53190075876. Delta is -0.02303332164137828
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:   9%|▎   | 491/5347 [00:13<02:33, 31.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3193.8779103027005 is not greater than 3193.896625504423. Delta is -0.018715201722443453
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  10%|▍   | 521/5347 [00:13<02:21, 34.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  10%|▍   | 541/5347 [00:14<02:36, 30.62it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  10%|▍   | 551/5347 [00:14<02:40, 29.96it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  11%|▍   | 571/5347 [00:15<02:12, 36.13it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  11%|▍   | 591/5347 [00:16<02:31, 31.49it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  11%|▍   | 611/5347 [00:16<02:47, 28.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  12%|▍   | 641/5347 [00:17<02:20, 33.56it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  12%|▍   | 651/5347 [00:18<02:30, 31.16it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  12%|▍   | 661/5347 [00:18<02:32, 30.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3376.1586168549343 is not greater than 3376.1593663054873. Delta is -0.0007494505530303286
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  13%|▌   | 671/5347 [00:18<02:24, 32.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  13%|▌   | 681/5347 [00:18<02:14, 34.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3349.6817146922235 is not greater than 3349.777600809356. Delta is -0.09588611713252249
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  13%|▌   | 691/5347 [00:19<02:17, 33.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  13%|▌   | 701/5347 [00:19<02:08, 36.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3371.9393422235557 is not greater than 3372.1525954231206. Delta is -0.21325319956486055
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  13%|▌   | 711/5347 [00:19<01:49, 42.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3405.067670786138 is not greater than 3405.759165065533. Delta is -0.6914942793951013
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  13%|▌   | 721/5347 [00:19<01:40, 46.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3378.116847248016 is not greater than 3378.1891754697417. Delta is -0.07232822172591113
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  14%|▌   | 731/5347 [00:19<01:30, 50.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3413.162608006671 is not greater than 3413.590479457948. Delta is -0.42787145127704207
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  14%|▌   | 741/5347 [00:20<01:26, 53.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3435.036621794079 is not greater than 3435.1192387713704. Delta is -0.08261697729130901
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  14%|▌   | 751/5347 [00:20<01:22, 55.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3451.6619881792117 is not greater than 3451.664522417428. Delta is -0.002534238216412632
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  14%|▌   | 761/5347 [00:20<01:32, 49.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3469.42490584297 is not greater than 3469.734417831723. Delta is -0.3095119887530018
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  14%|▌   | 771/5347 [00:20<01:37, 46.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3476.5371740615506 is not greater than 3476.6470307375826. Delta is -0.10985667603199545
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  15%|▌   | 781/5347 [00:20<01:30, 50.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3492.7421987367034 is not greater than 3492.781779618074. Delta is -0.039580881370511634
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  15%|▌   | 791/5347 [00:21<01:31, 50.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3504.7293876321046 is not greater than 3504.9874719232075. Delta is -0.2580842911029322
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  15%|▌   | 801/5347 [00:21<01:26, 52.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3515.4087997477754 is not greater than 3515.6531834492685. Delta is -0.2443837014930068
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  15%|▌   | 811/5347 [00:21<01:24, 53.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3523.602398572256 is not greater than 3523.717619591568. Delta is -0.11522101931223006
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  15%|▌   | 821/5347 [00:21<01:17, 58.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3537.3600600347504 is not greater than 3537.450382623307. Delta is -0.09032258855677355
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  16%|▌   | 831/5347 [00:21<01:07, 66.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3543.304887483295 is not greater than 3543.318558691049. Delta is -0.013671207754214265
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  16%|▋   | 841/5347 [00:21<01:07, 66.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3551.3527863203462 is not greater than 3551.5313220548123. Delta is -0.17853573446609516
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  16%|▋   | 851/5347 [00:21<01:02, 72.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3556.769540179457 is not greater than 3556.8112748013405. Delta is -0.04173462188327903
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  16%|▋   | 861/5347 [00:22<00:59, 75.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3560.7795089874335 is not greater than 3560.916601104932. Delta is -0.13709211749846872
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  16%|▋   | 871/5347 [00:22<01:04, 69.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3543.962141272225 is not greater than 3544.3516581649133. Delta is -0.38951689268833434
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  16%|▋   | 881/5347 [00:22<01:02, 70.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3547.352828990802 is not greater than 3547.5882100621548. Delta is -0.23538107135254904
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  17%|▋   | 891/5347 [00:22<01:05, 68.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  17%|▋   | 901/5347 [00:22<01:24, 52.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  17%|▋   | 911/5347 [00:22<01:16, 57.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3530.7702267369446 is not greater than 3531.476469607134. Delta is -0.7062428701892713
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  17%|▋   | 921/5347 [00:23<01:39, 44.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3518.8532716916034 is not greater than 3519.0100497765334. Delta is -0.15677808493001066
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  17%|▋   | 931/5347 [00:23<01:52, 39.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3504.1864341739047 is not greater than 3504.2796881308914. Delta is -0.09325395698670036
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  18%|▋   | 941/5347 [00:23<01:52, 39.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3502.403396865153 is not greater than 3502.6483400905245. Delta is -0.24494322537157132
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  18%|▋   | 951/5347 [00:24<01:38, 44.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3524.7068843872607 is not greater than 3524.8213684916714. Delta is -0.11448410441062151
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  18%|▋   | 961/5347 [00:24<01:38, 44.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3518.884959127756 is not greater than 3519.219527520355. Delta is -0.334568392599067
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  18%|▋   | 971/5347 [00:24<01:26, 50.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  18%|▋   | 981/5347 [00:24<01:30, 48.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3507.576989542658 is not greater than 3509.4620811976138. Delta is -1.885091654955886
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  19%|▋   | 991/5347 [00:24<01:28, 49.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3454.8817363455187 is not greater than 3454.90537814934. Delta is -0.023641803821192298
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  19%|▌  | 1001/5347 [00:25<01:25, 50.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3471.2957197267688 is not greater than 3471.7838555896637. Delta is -0.48813586289497835
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  19%|▌  | 1011/5347 [00:25<01:22, 52.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3455.647125114272 is not greater than 3455.746633725786. Delta is -0.09950861151401114
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  19%|▌  | 1021/5347 [00:25<01:22, 52.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3438.770155786357 is not greater than 3439.0187991048588. Delta is -0.24864331850176313
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  19%|▌  | 1031/5347 [00:25<01:17, 55.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3472.3957456690873 is not greater than 3472.4816720899244. Delta is -0.0859264208370405
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  19%|▌  | 1041/5347 [00:25<01:31, 47.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3425.7712229533354 is not greater than 3425.913054489116. Delta is -0.14183153578051133
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  20%|▌  | 1051/5347 [00:25<01:23, 51.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3464.90142348777 is not greater than 3464.9274393811006. Delta is -0.02601589333062293
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  20%|▌  | 1061/5347 [00:26<01:23, 51.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3377.762897141111 is not greater than 3377.7755072395116. Delta is -0.01261009840072802
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  20%|▌  | 1081/5347 [00:27<03:36, 19.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3394.382031694076 is not greater than 3394.5964677866814. Delta is -0.21443609260541052
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  20%|▌  | 1091/5347 [00:28<03:17, 21.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3368.7609795062717 is not greater than 3368.938091933468. Delta is -0.17711242719633447
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  21%|▌  | 1101/5347 [00:28<03:17, 21.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3396.367453534485 is not greater than 3396.400093798517. Delta is -0.03264026403212483
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  21%|▌  | 1111/5347 [00:28<02:57, 23.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3384.999357234739 is not greater than 3385.061180823506. Delta is -0.061823588767310866
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  21%|▋  | 1121/5347 [00:29<02:59, 23.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3390.7917079496024 is not greater than 3390.8825581708657. Delta is -0.09085022126328113
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  21%|▋  | 1141/5347 [00:29<02:12, 31.64it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  22%|▋  | 1161/5347 [00:30<01:40, 41.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3340.6617787365294 is not greater than 3340.8073945198016. Delta is -0.1456157832722056
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  22%|▋  | 1171/5347 [00:30<01:29, 46.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3329.293665187009 is not greater than 3329.380454885847. Delta is -0.08678969883794707
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  22%|▋  | 1181/5347 [00:30<01:24, 49.02it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  22%|▋  | 1201/5347 [00:30<01:47, 38.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3271.729068111961 is not greater than 3271.753627196792. Delta is -0.024559084830798383
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  23%|▋  | 1211/5347 [00:31<02:10, 31.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3227.516359480602 is not greater than 3228.1008924592265. Delta is -0.5845329786243383
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  23%|▋  | 1221/5347 [00:31<01:51, 37.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3230.481200369087 is not greater than 3231.054677303933. Delta is -0.5734769348459849
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  23%|▋  | 1231/5347 [00:31<01:45, 38.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3188.073751185538 is not greater than 3188.23100408705. Delta is -0.15725290151203808
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  23%|▋  | 1241/5347 [00:31<01:32, 44.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3161.6503433420216 is not greater than 3161.698668912989. Delta is -0.04832557096733581
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  23%|▋  | 1251/5347 [00:32<01:32, 44.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3157.5350875910012 is not greater than 3157.62661737288. Delta is -0.09152978187876215
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  24%|▋  | 1261/5347 [00:32<01:20, 50.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3164.4814724394 is not greater than 3164.493449110321. Delta is -0.011976670920830657
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  24%|▋  | 1271/5347 [00:32<01:31, 44.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3133.832572633967 is not greater than 3134.4033979331457. Delta is -0.570825299178523
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  24%|▋  | 1291/5347 [00:33<01:31, 44.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3122.808196934162 is not greater than 3122.845511488025. Delta is -0.037314553862870525
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  25%|▋  | 1321/5347 [00:34<01:59, 33.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3059.7441273885465 is not greater than 3060.2280697906244. Delta is -0.4839424020779006
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  25%|▋  | 1331/5347 [00:34<01:48, 36.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3078.7080066911426 is not greater than 3078.854693015453. Delta is -0.1466863243103944
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  25%|▊  | 1351/5347 [00:34<01:44, 38.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3027.5059660638385 is not greater than 3027.6009137264846. Delta is -0.09494766264606369
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  25%|▊  | 1361/5347 [00:35<01:35, 41.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3036.331206183178 is not greater than 3036.3415978985727. Delta is -0.010391715394689527
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  26%|▊  | 1371/5347 [00:35<01:34, 42.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3028.307893132885 is not greater than 3028.3443122669973. Delta is -0.03641913411229325
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  26%|▊  | 1381/5347 [00:35<01:29, 44.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3019.5605491442557 is not greater than 3019.6490956395933. Delta is -0.08854649533759584
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  26%|▊  | 1401/5347 [00:35<01:17, 51.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2988.0703000477365 is not greater than 2988.1479251625296. Delta is -0.07762511479313616
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  26%|▊  | 1411/5347 [00:36<01:21, 48.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2999.4766102788153 is not greater than 2999.5101278061397. Delta is -0.03351752732442037
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  27%|▊  | 1431/5347 [00:36<01:40, 38.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2973.395050133332 is not greater than 2973.4150958288683. Delta is -0.020045695536282437
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  28%|▊  | 1471/5347 [00:37<01:39, 38.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2973.3744180514077 is not greater than 2973.3811019306872. Delta is -0.0066838792795351765
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  28%|▊  | 1481/5347 [00:37<01:40, 38.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2970.139199830572 is not greater than 2970.155002264591. Delta is -0.015802434018951317
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  28%|▊  | 1491/5347 [00:38<02:16, 28.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2966.03032875336 is not greater than 2966.102090724821. Delta is -0.07176197146100094
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  28%|▊  | 1501/5347 [00:38<01:58, 32.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2953.1392813613975 is not greater than 2953.405424662079. Delta is -0.26614330068150593
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  28%|▊  | 1511/5347 [00:38<01:50, 34.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2950.791004465094 is not greater than 2950.9508954913085. Delta is -0.15989102621460916
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  28%|▊  | 1521/5347 [00:39<02:07, 30.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2959.739839468056 is not greater than 2959.8310803944833. Delta is -0.09124092642741743
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  29%|▊  | 1541/5347 [00:39<01:53, 33.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2936.6382070244113 is not greater than 2936.981794246804. Delta is -0.3435872223926708
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  29%|▊  | 1551/5347 [00:40<01:38, 38.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2939.418585986774 is not greater than 2939.454165849393. Delta is -0.03557986261921542
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  29%|▉  | 1561/5347 [00:40<01:56, 32.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2946.904811910141 is not greater than 2947.429249722155. Delta is -0.5244378120141846
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  29%|▉  | 1571/5347 [00:40<02:10, 28.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2934.5268796165365 is not greater than 2934.6004726542137. Delta is -0.07359303767725578
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  30%|▉  | 1581/5347 [00:41<01:53, 33.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2933.5420814225463 is not greater than 2933.6713568534315. Delta is -0.12927543088517268
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  30%|▉  | 1591/5347 [00:41<01:40, 37.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2936.845852171855 is not greater than 2936.921389133198. Delta is -0.0755369613430048
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  30%|▉  | 1601/5347 [00:41<01:39, 37.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2927.101807854388 is not greater than 2927.124933826938. Delta is -0.023125972550133156
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  30%|▉  | 1621/5347 [00:42<02:50, 21.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2896.215316654641 is not greater than 2896.355637057425. Delta is -0.14032040278425484
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  31%|▉  | 1631/5347 [00:43<02:22, 26.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2896.876499845441 is not greater than 2897.0483383693418. Delta is -0.17183852390098764
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  31%|▉  | 1661/5347 [00:45<03:43, 16.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2876.5582990309977 is not greater than 2876.5780346769807. Delta is -0.019735645983018912
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  31%|▉  | 1671/5347 [00:45<03:04, 19.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2882.8732750064723 is not greater than 2882.900427816271. Delta is -0.02715280979873569
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  31%|▉  | 1681/5347 [00:45<02:28, 24.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2866.609868125833 is not greater than 2866.6594319955693. Delta is -0.04956386973617555
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  32%|▉  | 1701/5347 [00:46<02:12, 27.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2876.173244362237 is not greater than 2876.205310572254. Delta is -0.03206621001709209
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  32%|▉  | 1731/5347 [00:47<02:14, 26.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2870.443883746002 is not greater than 2870.542260999517. Delta is -0.09837725351508197
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  33%|▉  | 1741/5347 [00:47<01:47, 33.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2854.342383211017 is not greater than 2854.55117580038. Delta is -0.208792589362929
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  33%|▉  | 1761/5347 [00:48<01:55, 31.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2868.6639456217404 is not greater than 2868.681888329373. Delta is -0.017942707632755628
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  33%|▉  | 1771/5347 [00:48<01:37, 36.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2854.945314847314 is not greater than 2855.1789983935373. Delta is -0.23368354622334664
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  33%|█  | 1791/5347 [00:48<01:13, 48.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2859.781125708504 is not greater than 2859.94092685742. Delta is -0.15980114891590347
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  34%|█  | 1811/5347 [00:48<01:14, 47.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2852.508656685145 is not greater than 2852.785551037325. Delta is -0.2768943521800793
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  34%|█  | 1831/5347 [00:49<02:01, 28.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2854.3447317349023 is not greater than 2854.4108436015. Delta is -0.0661118665975664
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  34%|█  | 1841/5347 [00:50<01:42, 34.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2851.3836870042023 is not greater than 2851.5334193945855. Delta is -0.14973239038317843
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  35%|█  | 1861/5347 [00:50<01:24, 41.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2872.726055607889 is not greater than 2873.0767939474995. Delta is -0.350738339610416
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  35%|█  | 1871/5347 [00:50<01:21, 42.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2848.45915269267 is not greater than 2848.72997886735. Delta is -0.2708261746797689
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  35%|█  | 1881/5347 [00:50<01:09, 49.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2854.3473866909685 is not greater than 2854.489202466032. Delta is -0.14181577506360554
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  35%|█  | 1891/5347 [00:51<01:17, 44.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2849.8196761924887 is not greater than 2849.9686410264635. Delta is -0.14896483397478733
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  36%|█  | 1911/5347 [00:51<01:15, 45.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2843.7859163849866 is not greater than 2843.8012214950845. Delta is -0.015305110097870056
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  36%|█  | 1931/5347 [00:51<00:58, 58.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2852.5446798791936 is not greater than 2852.5746901930365. Delta is -0.030010313842922187
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  37%|█  | 1961/5347 [00:54<03:46, 14.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2831.4866138770135 is not greater than 2831.547021338447. Delta is -0.06040746143344222
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  37%|█  | 1971/5347 [00:54<03:06, 18.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2830.8958820136354 is not greater than 2830.9712157216763. Delta is -0.07533370804094375
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  37%|█  | 2001/5347 [00:55<02:47, 19.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2796.859669480098 is not greater than 2796.8617463339297. Delta is -0.0020768538315678597
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  38%|█▏ | 2021/5347 [00:56<01:55, 28.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2840.184624658866 is not greater than 2840.5016354369095. Delta is -0.3170107780433682
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  38%|█▏ | 2031/5347 [00:56<01:46, 31.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2816.4878819961873 is not greater than 2816.5190128780723. Delta is -0.031130881885019335
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  38%|█▏ | 2041/5347 [00:56<01:47, 30.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  39%|█▏ | 2081/5347 [00:59<02:50, 19.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2871.045659881922 is not greater than 2871.170064777464. Delta is -0.12440489554228407
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  39%|█▏ | 2091/5347 [00:59<02:17, 23.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2853.038308880026 is not greater than 2853.0386539742794. Delta is -0.00034509425358919543
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  39%|█▏ | 2111/5347 [01:00<02:11, 24.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  40%|█▏ | 2141/5347 [01:01<02:13, 23.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2863.235491531573 is not greater than 2863.2584411939392. Delta is -0.02294966236604523
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  41%|█▏ | 2191/5347 [01:03<02:02, 25.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2951.86236876031 is not greater than 2952.7150098849343. Delta is -0.8526411246243697
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  41%|█▏ | 2211/5347 [01:04<01:35, 32.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2979.220933808688 is not greater than 2979.3550334555857. Delta is -0.13409964689753906
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  42%|█▎ | 2231/5347 [01:04<01:37, 31.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3014.757247915925 is not greater than 3014.887798596343. Delta is -0.13055068041830964
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  42%|█▎ | 2241/5347 [01:04<01:30, 34.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3039.386023322812 is not greater than 3039.605233255175. Delta is -0.21920993236290087
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  42%|█▎ | 2251/5347 [01:05<01:20, 38.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3054.7626941652443 is not greater than 3055.0069504749868. Delta is -0.24425630974246815
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  42%|█▎ | 2261/5347 [01:05<01:27, 35.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3051.9974491806024 is not greater than 3052.0508803551925. Delta is -0.05343117459005953
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  43%|█▎ | 2291/5347 [01:06<01:40, 30.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3095.46027404695 is not greater than 3095.691377076901. Delta is -0.23110302995110032
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  43%|█▎ | 2311/5347 [01:07<01:37, 31.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3087.0515177868538 is not greater than 3087.0785226049975. Delta is -0.02700481814372324
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  44%|█▎ | 2351/5347 [01:07<01:06, 45.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3162.945426342907 is not greater than 3163.0851798461536. Delta is -0.13975350324653846
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  44%|█▎ | 2361/5347 [01:08<01:15, 39.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3186.7969907171787 is not greater than 3186.8211465850886. Delta is -0.024155867909939843
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  44%|█▎ | 2371/5347 [01:08<01:17, 38.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3188.0798308124567 is not greater than 3188.2752257987313. Delta is -0.19539498627455032
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  45%|█▎ | 2391/5347 [01:09<01:28, 33.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3197.3453045014107 is not greater than 3197.3604816008205. Delta is -0.01517709940981149
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  45%|█▎ | 2401/5347 [01:09<01:40, 29.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3188.0560315109474 is not greater than 3188.0801242462776. Delta is -0.024092735330214055
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  45%|█▎ | 2411/5347 [01:09<01:21, 36.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  45%|█▎ | 2421/5347 [01:10<01:24, 34.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3214.508147797888 is not greater than 3214.5229467389604. Delta is -0.014798941072513117
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  45%|█▎ | 2431/5347 [01:10<01:28, 33.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3216.7443737081167 is not greater than 3216.758555998414. Delta is -0.014182290297412692
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  46%|█▎ | 2441/5347 [01:10<01:19, 36.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  46%|█▍ | 2481/5347 [01:11<01:05, 43.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3239.042167349824 is not greater than 3239.084382365875. Delta is -0.04221501605115918
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  47%|█▍ | 2491/5347 [01:11<01:09, 41.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3243.1974833202376 is not greater than 3243.3411134320218. Delta is -0.14363011178420493
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  47%|█▍ | 2501/5347 [01:12<01:02, 45.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3248.218831543388 is not greater than 3248.2546313661187. Delta is -0.03579982273049609
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  47%|█▍ | 2511/5347 [01:12<01:16, 37.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3249.1015117502616 is not greater than 3249.1227501079698. Delta is -0.021238357708170952
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  47%|█▍ | 2521/5347 [01:12<01:14, 38.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3257.7005261307577 is not greater than 3257.7384742117733. Delta is -0.0379480810156565
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  47%|█▍ | 2531/5347 [01:12<01:17, 36.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3263.355785600042 is not greater than 3263.3935035357345. Delta is -0.037717935692398896
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  48%|█▍ | 2541/5347 [01:13<01:22, 33.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  48%|█▍ | 2551/5347 [01:13<01:25, 32.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3243.278145608253 is not greater than 3243.2832483264715. Delta is -0.0051027182184952835
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  48%|█▍ | 2561/5347 [01:13<01:20, 34.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3258.7118044689864 is not greater than 3258.7886384747712. Delta is -0.0768340057848036
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  48%|█▍ | 2581/5347 [01:14<01:24, 32.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3257.270132794815 is not greater than 3257.292473020366. Delta is -0.022340225551033654
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  48%|█▍ | 2591/5347 [01:15<01:39, 27.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3268.127990687704 is not greater than 3268.1620558248055. Delta is -0.034065137101606524
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  49%|█▍ | 2611/5347 [01:15<01:37, 28.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3293.3498442688515 is not greater than 3293.457760638696. Delta is -0.10791636984458819
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  49%|█▍ | 2621/5347 [01:16<01:40, 27.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3295.1260371036556 is not greater than 3295.1905980881716. Delta is -0.06456098451599246
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  49%|█▍ | 2641/5347 [01:16<01:34, 28.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3327.2132539697477 is not greater than 3327.2694997234667. Delta is -0.05624575371894025
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  50%|█▍ | 2651/5347 [01:17<01:27, 30.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3336.5646794386485 is not greater than 3336.6337553428066. Delta is -0.06907590415812592
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  50%|█▍ | 2661/5347 [01:17<01:19, 33.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  50%|█▍ | 2671/5347 [01:17<01:14, 36.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3344.0532514396527 is not greater than 3344.0548342245906. Delta is -0.0015827849379093095
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  50%|█▌ | 2681/5347 [01:17<01:10, 37.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3352.5211670698377 is not greater than 3352.577933236796. Delta is -0.05676616695836856
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  50%|█▌ | 2691/5347 [01:17<00:59, 44.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  51%|█▌ | 2701/5347 [01:18<01:10, 37.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3360.799495642319 is not greater than 3360.940398835165. Delta is -0.14090319284605357
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  51%|█▌ | 2721/5347 [01:19<01:29, 29.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3346.205472427035 is not greater than 3346.2214727762444. Delta is -0.016000349209207343
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  51%|█▌ | 2731/5347 [01:19<01:25, 30.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  51%|█▌ | 2741/5347 [01:19<01:22, 31.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3360.6018555789287 is not greater than 3360.6726878334275. Delta is -0.07083225449878228
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  51%|█▌ | 2751/5347 [01:19<01:21, 31.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3355.6073660853654 is not greater than 3355.6589673559615. Delta is -0.051601270596165705
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  52%|█▌ | 2761/5347 [01:20<01:26, 29.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3331.8954675386735 is not greater than 3331.946800523082. Delta is -0.05133298440841827
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  52%|█▌ | 2771/5347 [01:20<01:14, 34.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3337.51373740482 is not greater than 3337.7117949735975. Delta is -0.1980575687775854
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  52%|█▌ | 2781/5347 [01:20<01:14, 34.35it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3335.180703911569 is not greater than 3335.3369442234425. Delta is -0.15624031187371656
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  52%|█▌ | 2801/5347 [01:21<01:17, 33.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3324.37305541756 is not greater than 3324.3985204661817. Delta is -0.02546504862175425
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  53%|█▌ | 2821/5347 [01:22<01:19, 31.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  53%|█▌ | 2831/5347 [01:22<01:23, 30.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3326.853885892755 is not greater than 3326.88913635357. Delta is -0.0352504608149502
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  53%|█▌ | 2841/5347 [01:22<01:17, 32.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3342.223177404687 is not greater than 3342.7441643836128. Delta is -0.5209869789259756
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  54%|█▌ | 2861/5347 [01:23<01:09, 35.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3344.1901982855966 is not greater than 3344.2037877928565. Delta is -0.013589507259894162
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  54%|█▌ | 2881/5347 [01:23<01:03, 39.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3352.8597572523604 is not greater than 3353.0264887904686. Delta is -0.1667315381082517
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  54%|█▌ | 2891/5347 [01:23<01:05, 37.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3357.991666032136 is not greater than 3358.413476761935. Delta is -0.4218107297988354
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  54%|█▋ | 2911/5347 [01:24<01:15, 32.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  55%|█▋ | 2941/5347 [01:25<01:14, 32.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3387.142187167163 is not greater than 3387.229528275381. Delta is -0.08734110821842478
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  55%|█▋ | 2961/5347 [01:26<01:18, 30.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3400.0380826429137 is not greater than 3400.0703825924606. Delta is -0.032299949546995776
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  56%|█▋ | 2981/5347 [01:26<01:26, 27.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3414.4667947705507 is not greater than 3414.5195974003286. Delta is -0.052802629777943366
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  56%|█▋ | 2991/5347 [01:27<01:22, 28.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3426.3957974025943 is not greater than 3426.415171148077. Delta is -0.019373745482880622
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  56%|█▋ | 3001/5347 [01:27<01:23, 28.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3430.074828839266 is not greater than 3430.116910385197. Delta is -0.04208154593106883
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  56%|█▋ | 3011/5347 [01:28<01:33, 25.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3426.3029771832907 is not greater than 3426.342579720128. Delta is -0.03960253683726478
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  56%|█▋ | 3021/5347 [01:28<01:25, 27.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3416.495523048097 is not greater than 3416.73963277055. Delta is -0.24410972245323137
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  57%|█▋ | 3031/5347 [01:28<01:19, 29.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3398.864702459191 is not greater than 3398.893749824336. Delta is -0.029047365144833748
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  57%|█▋ | 3041/5347 [01:29<01:21, 28.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3388.3273977503018 is not greater than 3388.457685830946. Delta is -0.13028808064427722
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  57%|█▋ | 3051/5347 [01:29<01:16, 29.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3376.805779936336 is not greater than 3377.497172360675. Delta is -0.6913924243390284
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  57%|█▋ | 3061/5347 [01:29<01:13, 30.94it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  57%|█▋ | 3071/5347 [01:30<01:17, 29.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3375.453647586367 is not greater than 3375.4716765930384. Delta is -0.018029006671440584
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  58%|█▋ | 3081/5347 [01:30<01:26, 26.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3380.212511008049 is not greater than 3380.246366221344. Delta is -0.03385521329482799
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  58%|█▋ | 3091/5347 [01:30<01:24, 26.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3374.4656975835965 is not greater than 3374.5739741625057. Delta is -0.10827657890922637
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  58%|█▋ | 3111/5347 [01:31<01:24, 26.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3388.0279341001306 is not greater than 3388.0796475284683. Delta is -0.05171342833773451
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  58%|█▊ | 3121/5347 [01:32<01:21, 27.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3398.0712220840405 is not greater than 3398.1508105982434. Delta is -0.07958851420289648
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  59%|█▊ | 3131/5347 [01:32<01:18, 28.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  59%|█▊ | 3151/5347 [01:32<01:11, 30.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3410.397181548454 is not greater than 3410.454579482406. Delta is -0.05739793395241577
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  59%|█▊ | 3161/5347 [01:33<01:10, 30.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3406.9234073950875 is not greater than 3407.4763768824687. Delta is -0.5529694873812332
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  59%|█▊ | 3171/5347 [01:33<00:59, 36.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3407.1816528684044 is not greater than 3407.31228028847. Delta is -0.13062742006559347
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  59%|█▊ | 3181/5347 [01:33<01:01, 35.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3399.888975166001 is not greater than 3399.9159689859807. Delta is -0.02699381997990713
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  60%|█▊ | 3191/5347 [01:34<01:05, 32.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3405.83226994563 is not greater than 3406.0337363227554. Delta is -0.20146637712559823
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  60%|█▊ | 3201/5347 [01:34<01:05, 32.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3416.2219273733303 is not greater than 3417.45615883043. Delta is -1.2342314570996678
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  60%|█▊ | 3211/5347 [01:34<01:05, 32.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3401.28789122172 is not greater than 3401.5942217638008. Delta is -0.3063305420805591
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  60%|█▊ | 3221/5347 [01:35<01:04, 33.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3411.147442217919 is not greater than 3411.1671801959274. Delta is -0.019737978008379287
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  60%|█▊ | 3231/5347 [01:35<01:03, 33.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3417.166551524042 is not greater than 3417.2839040821627. Delta is -0.11735255812072865
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  61%|█▊ | 3241/5347 [01:35<01:01, 34.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3440.9920389025574 is not greater than 3444.174782224976. Delta is -3.182743322418446
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  61%|█▊ | 3261/5347 [01:36<01:11, 29.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3442.3084852672414 is not greater than 3443.830046511097. Delta is -1.5215612438555581
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  61%|█▊ | 3271/5347 [01:36<01:06, 31.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3445.4155766010817 is not greater than 3446.5828283961555. Delta is -1.1672517950737529
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  61%|█▊ | 3281/5347 [01:36<00:58, 35.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3433.066567061309 is not greater than 3433.200103979362. Delta is -0.13353691805332346
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  62%|█▊ | 3291/5347 [01:37<01:00, 34.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3429.4321753952454 is not greater than 3429.529800608782. Delta is -0.097625213536503
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  62%|█▊ | 3301/5347 [01:37<00:59, 34.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3435.7934897656373 is not greater than 3435.9548501952345. Delta is -0.1613604295971527
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  62%|█▊ | 3311/5347 [01:37<00:51, 39.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3431.2903987087975 is not greater than 3432.042357604146. Delta is -0.7519588953487073
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  62%|█▊ | 3321/5347 [01:37<00:52, 38.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3438.217168082069 is not greater than 3438.2850458826324. Delta is -0.06787780056356496
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  62%|█▊ | 3331/5347 [01:38<00:57, 34.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3446.283175569195 is not greater than 3446.298524163371. Delta is -0.01534859417597545
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  62%|█▊ | 3341/5347 [01:38<01:04, 31.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3452.2139937593206 is not greater than 3452.280854320551. Delta is -0.06686056123044182
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  63%|█▉ | 3361/5347 [01:39<01:05, 30.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3432.252840458492 is not greater than 3432.4315179514633. Delta is -0.17867749297147384
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  63%|█▉ | 3371/5347 [01:39<01:03, 31.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3477.736052724911 is not greater than 3478.119700302854. Delta is -0.3836475779430657
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  63%|█▉ | 3381/5347 [01:39<01:00, 32.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3483.0179407454507 is not greater than 3483.249599898598. Delta is -0.23165915314712038
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  63%|█▉ | 3391/5347 [01:40<00:59, 32.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3474.546431416411 is not greater than 3474.5534587211096. Delta is -0.007027304698567605
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  64%|█▉ | 3401/5347 [01:40<01:04, 30.30it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  64%|█▉ | 3411/5347 [01:40<01:00, 32.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3489.4177720561906 is not greater than 3489.446314338785. Delta is -0.02854228259457159
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  64%|█▉ | 3421/5347 [01:41<00:59, 32.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3509.9956287870596 is not greater than 3510.2251956728405. Delta is -0.22956688578096873
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  64%|█▉ | 3431/5347 [01:41<00:56, 34.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3487.0264171622052 is not greater than 3487.406330617062. Delta is -0.37991345485670536
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  64%|█▉ | 3441/5347 [01:41<01:01, 31.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3502.1691558836533 is not greater than 3503.345572617084. Delta is -1.1764167334308695
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  65%|█▉ | 3451/5347 [01:41<00:51, 36.65it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  65%|█▉ | 3461/5347 [01:42<00:47, 39.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3474.539903335599 is not greater than 3474.589482822788. Delta is -0.049579487189021165
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  65%|█▉ | 3471/5347 [01:42<00:42, 44.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  65%|█▉ | 3501/5347 [01:43<00:55, 33.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3532.957957479383 is not greater than 3537.9486551679547. Delta is -4.9906976885717995
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  66%|█▉ | 3511/5347 [01:43<00:55, 33.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  66%|█▉ | 3521/5347 [01:43<00:54, 33.46it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  66%|█▉ | 3541/5347 [01:44<00:57, 31.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3545.843509990962 is not greater than 3545.856327845436. Delta is -0.012817854474178603
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  66%|█▉ | 3551/5347 [01:44<01:04, 27.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3536.015673639611 is not greater than 3536.0207061681645. Delta is -0.00503252855332903
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  67%|█▉ | 3561/5347 [01:45<01:04, 27.56it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  67%|██ | 3571/5347 [01:45<01:10, 25.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3514.4052103019635 is not greater than 3514.849004949669. Delta is -0.4437946477055448
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  67%|██ | 3581/5347 [01:46<01:04, 27.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  67%|██ | 3591/5347 [01:46<00:58, 30.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  67%|██ | 3601/5347 [01:46<00:51, 34.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3512.7590194306995 is not greater than 3512.7714559577526. Delta is -0.012436527053068858
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  68%|██ | 3621/5347 [01:46<00:44, 38.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3493.660302460896 is not greater than 3494.6113491727597. Delta is -0.9510467118634551
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  68%|██ | 3631/5347 [01:47<00:36, 46.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  68%|██ | 3641/5347 [01:47<00:33, 51.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  68%|██ | 3651/5347 [01:47<00:34, 49.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3497.306029857304 is not greater than 3497.309691244964. Delta is -0.0036613876600313233
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  68%|██ | 3661/5347 [01:47<00:40, 41.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  69%|██ | 3671/5347 [01:47<00:36, 45.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  69%|██ | 3681/5347 [01:48<00:40, 41.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3458.3337047057785 is not greater than 3458.421401809449. Delta is -0.0876971036705072
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  69%|██ | 3691/5347 [01:48<00:42, 39.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3460.7568074777355 is not greater than 3460.9317201949016. Delta is -0.17491271716608026
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  69%|██ | 3701/5347 [01:48<00:35, 46.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  69%|██ | 3711/5347 [01:48<00:33, 49.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  70%|██ | 3721/5347 [01:49<00:33, 47.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  70%|██ | 3741/5347 [01:49<00:45, 34.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  70%|██ | 3751/5347 [01:50<00:55, 28.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  71%|██ | 3771/5347 [01:50<00:42, 36.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3485.751880424212 is not greater than 3485.754646490524. Delta is -0.0027660663122333062
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  71%|██ | 3781/5347 [01:51<00:49, 31.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3488.662139459022 is not greater than 3488.666644274013. Delta is -0.004504814990923478
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  72%|██▏| 3831/5347 [01:52<00:43, 35.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3494.3186333883164 is not greater than 3494.328455652106. Delta is -0.009822263789828867
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  72%|██▏| 3841/5347 [01:52<00:51, 29.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3497.1636998620183 is not greater than 3497.1873724964366. Delta is -0.023672634418289817
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  72%|██▏| 3851/5347 [01:53<00:44, 33.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  72%|██▏| 3861/5347 [01:53<00:37, 39.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3493.4987245125076 is not greater than 3493.5040821617113. Delta is -0.005357649203688197
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  73%|██▏| 3901/5347 [01:54<00:30, 48.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3492.568534700084 is not greater than 3492.684690743978. Delta is -0.11615604389407963
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  73%|██▏| 3911/5347 [01:54<00:39, 36.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3495.2109529781324 is not greater than 3495.3943883651214. Delta is -0.18343538698900375
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  73%|██▏| 3921/5347 [01:54<00:38, 36.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  74%|██▏| 3931/5347 [01:55<00:41, 34.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3502.9498324276783 is not greater than 3502.9546867747135. Delta is -0.004854347035234241
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  74%|██▏| 3951/5347 [01:55<00:39, 35.36it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  74%|██▏| 3961/5347 [01:55<00:35, 39.41it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  74%|██▏| 3981/5347 [01:56<00:48, 28.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  75%|██▎| 4011/5347 [01:57<00:30, 44.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3543.920219909535 is not greater than 3543.9409560227614. Delta is -0.02073611322657598
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  75%|██▎| 4021/5347 [01:57<00:26, 49.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3558.0068873189075 is not greater than 3558.2000730493614. Delta is -0.1931857304539335
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  75%|██▎| 4031/5347 [01:57<00:26, 50.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3569.674277432861 is not greater than 3569.7398002620484. Delta is -0.06552282918755736
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  76%|██▎| 4041/5347 [01:57<00:25, 50.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3576.220951969235 is not greater than 3576.226979594428. Delta is -0.006027625192928099
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  76%|██▎| 4051/5347 [01:57<00:25, 50.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  76%|██▎| 4061/5347 [01:58<00:24, 51.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3566.636858676767 is not greater than 3566.6698149794456. Delta is -0.03295630267848537
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  77%|██▎| 4091/5347 [01:58<00:29, 43.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3459.2432907758707 is not greater than 3460.0811556613153. Delta is -0.8378648854445601
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  77%|██▎| 4121/5347 [01:59<00:25, 47.54it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3467.9174832460412 is not greater than 3467.9543675659756. Delta is -0.036884319934415544
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  77%|██▎| 4131/5347 [01:59<00:27, 43.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3457.6621207225894 is not greater than 3457.726991019154. Delta is -0.06487029656454979
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  78%|██▎| 4171/5347 [02:00<00:28, 41.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3380.1208858866867 is not greater than 3380.172346495478. Delta is -0.05146060879133074
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  78%|██▎| 4191/5347 [02:00<00:22, 52.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  79%|██▎| 4221/5347 [02:01<00:19, 58.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3345.959954714236 is not greater than 3345.9713831031786. Delta is -0.011428388942476886
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  79%|██▍| 4241/5347 [02:02<00:27, 40.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3287.5247530976962 is not greater than 3287.58369688954. Delta is -0.058943791843830695
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  81%|██▍| 4341/5347 [02:05<00:31, 31.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3227.6160726530284 is not greater than 3228.041430323297. Delta is -0.42535767026856774
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  82%|██▍| 4391/5347 [02:07<00:36, 25.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3214.2082877459056 is not greater than 3214.3834021903276. Delta is -0.175114444421979
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  82%|██▍| 4411/5347 [02:07<00:28, 33.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  83%|██▍| 4421/5347 [02:07<00:24, 37.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3242.8297037750413 is not greater than 3243.093026134241. Delta is -0.26332235919971936
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  83%|██▍| 4451/5347 [02:08<00:20, 44.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3240.4057414136387 is not greater than 3240.4390777345875. Delta is -0.033336320948819775
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  84%|██▌| 4471/5347 [02:08<00:17, 50.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3233.2478682484716 is not greater than 3233.289643123076. Delta is -0.041774874604470824
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  84%|██▌| 4491/5347 [02:09<00:19, 44.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3220.1642285163857 is not greater than 3220.661799090603. Delta is -0.49757057421720674
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  84%|██▌| 4501/5347 [02:09<00:17, 47.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3222.630780166848 is not greater than 3222.717882801832. Delta is -0.08710263498369386
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  84%|██▌| 4511/5347 [02:09<00:15, 54.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3212.184766249754 is not greater than 3212.470377404361. Delta is -0.2856111546070679
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  85%|██▌| 4531/5347 [02:09<00:19, 42.54it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3195.7107383367243 is not greater than 3196.098027560996. Delta is -0.38728922427162615
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  85%|██▌| 4541/5347 [02:10<00:20, 38.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3192.574151881226 is not greater than 3192.654263060392. Delta is -0.0801111791661242
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  85%|██▌| 4561/5347 [02:10<00:21, 36.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3188.5459834826115 is not greater than 3188.5668305501076. Delta is -0.02084706749610632
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  86%|██▌| 4581/5347 [02:11<00:22, 33.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3179.637978426901 is not greater than 3179.6735531236136. Delta is -0.035574696712501463
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  86%|██▌| 4591/5347 [02:11<00:25, 30.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3179.4881669680863 is not greater than 3179.5486981225954. Delta is -0.060531154509135376
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  86%|██▌| 4601/5347 [02:12<00:26, 28.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3175.6952860185393 is not greater than 3175.762278837567. Delta is -0.06699281902774601
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  86%|██▌| 4611/5347 [02:12<00:25, 28.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3155.9614303502117 is not greater than 3156.0084188082756. Delta is -0.04698845806387908
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  86%|██▌| 4621/5347 [02:13<00:25, 28.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3138.8059090194447 is not greater than 3139.2698911204648. Delta is -0.4639821010200649
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  87%|██▌| 4631/5347 [02:13<00:24, 29.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3105.7112384337465 is not greater than 3105.784354209169. Delta is -0.07311577542259329
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  87%|██▌| 4641/5347 [02:13<00:22, 31.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3115.2914253382223 is not greater than 3115.3319528611646. Delta is -0.04052752294228412
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  87%|██▌| 4661/5347 [02:14<00:19, 35.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3089.294927424247 is not greater than 3089.4839965926735. Delta is -0.18906916842661303
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  88%|██▋| 4681/5347 [02:14<00:22, 29.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3081.048884944408 is not greater than 3081.0713633837277. Delta is -0.02247843931945681
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  88%|██▋| 4721/5347 [02:16<00:24, 25.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3037.3544887920875 is not greater than 3037.9394620619587. Delta is -0.5849732698711705
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  88%|██▋| 4731/5347 [02:16<00:23, 25.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3032.796604857516 is not greater than 3032.8039382205907. Delta is -0.007333363074849331
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  89%|██▋| 4741/5347 [02:16<00:19, 31.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3038.1917558637065 is not greater than 3038.194367325942. Delta is -0.002611462235563522
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  90%|██▋| 4811/5347 [02:19<00:20, 25.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3033.970617049625 is not greater than 3033.971032636518. Delta is -0.0004155868928137352
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  90%|██▋| 4831/5347 [02:20<00:21, 23.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3011.1496293442474 is not greater than 3011.3139517008553. Delta is -0.16432235660795413
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  91%|██▋| 4841/5347 [02:20<00:17, 29.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3023.4489985887258 is not greater than 3023.4635608469343. Delta is -0.01456225820857071
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  91%|██▋| 4861/5347 [02:20<00:12, 37.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3017.049753168416 is not greater than 3017.2186487742624. Delta is -0.16889560584650098
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  91%|██▋| 4871/5347 [02:21<00:13, 35.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3015.969563328517 is not greater than 3016.0487769072993. Delta is -0.07921357878240087
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  91%|██▋| 4881/5347 [02:21<00:12, 37.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3017.554224309324 is not greater than 3018.15560985765. Delta is -0.601385548325652
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  92%|██▋| 4901/5347 [02:22<00:13, 32.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3007.135689913348 is not greater than 3007.157163144026. Delta is -0.021473230678111577
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  92%|██▊| 4911/5347 [02:22<00:11, 37.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3017.493398921378 is not greater than 3017.6510910265715. Delta is -0.1576921051937461
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  92%|██▊| 4941/5347 [02:23<00:13, 29.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3033.5265150008568 is not greater than 3033.572899201. Delta is -0.0463842001431658
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  93%|██▊| 4951/5347 [02:23<00:13, 30.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3032.585243000059 is not greater than 3032.816380029651. Delta is -0.23113702959199145
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  93%|██▊| 4971/5347 [02:24<00:14, 25.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3034.183628910446 is not greater than 3034.209251727387. Delta is -0.025622816940995108
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  93%|██▊| 4991/5347 [02:25<00:13, 26.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3015.8442093382087 is not greater than 3015.9458835165997. Delta is -0.101674178391022
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  94%|██▊| 5011/5347 [02:25<00:11, 29.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3022.7570601503685 is not greater than 3022.8185771992585. Delta is -0.06151704888998211
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  94%|██▊| 5021/5347 [02:26<00:10, 30.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3011.568047513057 is not greater than 3011.5705843045685. Delta is -0.0025367915113747586
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  94%|██▊| 5051/5347 [02:27<00:10, 29.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3024.543754582268 is not greater than 3024.558187580082. Delta is -0.014432997814310511
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  95%|██▊| 5071/5347 [02:27<00:08, 32.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3061.313376670012 is not greater than 3061.436949673211. Delta is -0.12357300319899878
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  95%|██▊| 5081/5347 [02:28<00:07, 33.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3123.109338769677 is not greater than 3123.1162167739863. Delta is -0.006878004309328389
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  95%|██▊| 5091/5347 [02:28<00:07, 35.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  95%|██▊| 5101/5347 [02:28<00:07, 34.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  96%|██▊| 5111/5347 [02:28<00:06, 38.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  96%|██▉| 5141/5347 [02:29<00:05, 37.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3145.1654240589396 is not greater than 3145.1664677116028. Delta is -0.0010436526631565357
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  96%|██▉| 5151/5347 [02:29<00:04, 39.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3143.3653010143694 is not greater than 3143.3668736759078. Delta is -0.0015726615383755416
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  97%|██▉| 5161/5347 [02:29<00:04, 43.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3198.8467544032524 is not greater than 3199.5588908368227. Delta is -0.712136433570322
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  97%|██▉| 5171/5347 [02:30<00:03, 46.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3141.6527078835297 is not greater than 3141.6880320515124. Delta is -0.03532416798270788
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  97%|██▉| 5181/5347 [02:30<00:04, 41.36it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  97%|██▉| 5191/5347 [02:30<00:04, 35.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  97%|██▉| 5201/5347 [02:31<00:04, 34.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3195.738488706625 is not greater than 3197.296679228479. Delta is -1.5581905218541579
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  98%|██▉| 5241/5347 [02:31<00:02, 45.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3227.86111223587 is not greater than 3227.880287729301. Delta is -0.019175493430793722
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  98%|██▉| 5251/5347 [02:32<00:02, 36.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  98%|██▉| 5261/5347 [02:32<00:02, 36.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3225.213070487489 is not greater than 3225.261904394108. Delta is -0.048833906619165646
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  99%|██▉| 5271/5347 [02:32<00:02, 33.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3221.343081305773 is not greater than 3221.441661544426. Delta is -0.09858023865308496
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  99%|██▉| 5291/5347 [02:33<00:01, 33.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3222.3390726958073 is not greater than 3222.3449097192456. Delta is -0.0058370234382891795
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  99%|██▉| 5301/5347 [02:33<00:01, 36.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3224.9197513664335 is not greater than 3224.9455069911146. Delta is -0.02575562468109638
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes:  99%|██▉| 5311/5347 [02:33<00:00, 41.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3175.3912977741716 is not greater than 3175.4032642302705. Delta is -0.011966456098889466
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes: 100%|██▉| 5321/5347 [02:34<00:00, 41.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3180.45301952007 is not greater than 3180.5200206685417. Delta is -0.0670011484717179
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes: 100%|██▉| 5331/5347 [02:34<00:00, 45.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3218.7522471413463 is not greater than 3219.211871575418. Delta is -0.459624434071884
⏳ HMM semi-séquentiel à 3 régimes: 100%|███| 5347/5347 [02:34<00:00, 34.60it/s]

📊 Performance HMM semi-séquentielle (3 régimes) :
Rendement annualisé = 4.48%
Volatilité annualisée = 16.11%
Sharpe ratio = 0.28

HMM basic Static

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm
import yfinance as yf

# 📥 Données
data = yf.download('^GSPC', start='2000-01-01', end='2025-04-01')
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data.dropna(inplace=True)
returns = data['Log_Returns'].values.reshape(-1, 1)

# ⚙️ Paramètres
rolling_window = 500
refit_every = 5
positions = []
dates = []
returns_strategy = []
panic_flags = []

model_roll = None
viterbi_states = None
last_transmat = None
last_state = None
remap = None

# 🔐 Panic mode
panic_mode = False
panic_timer = 0

loop_range = range(rolling_window, len(data) - 1)
for t in tqdm(loop_range, desc="🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode"):

    window_returns = returns[t - rolling_window:t]

    if (t - rolling_window) % refit_every == 0:
        try:
            model_roll = GaussianHMM(n_components=4, covariance_type='full', n_iter=1000)
            model_roll.fit(window_returns)
            viterbi_states = model_roll.predict(window_returns)

            vols = [np.var(window_returns[viterbi_states == i]) for i in range(4)]
            order = np.argsort(vols)
            remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(order)}
            viterbi_states = np.vectorize(remap.get)(viterbi_states)

            last_state = viterbi_states[-1]
            last_transmat = model_roll.transmat_[order][:, order]

        except:
            continue

    if model_roll is None or last_transmat is None:
        continue

    # 📉 Stats marché récents
    rolling_vol = np.std(returns[t-20:t]) * np.sqrt(252)
    recent_return = np.mean(returns[t-5:t])

    # 🔥 1. Panic Mode déclenchement
    if not panic_mode and rolling_vol > 0.6 and recent_return < -0.01:
        panic_mode = True
        panic_timer = 30
        print(f"🛑 Panic mode ACTIVÉ le {data.index[t]}")

    # 🔓 2. Panic Mode désactivation
    elif panic_mode:
        if (rolling_vol < 0.3 and recent_return > 0) or panic_timer <= 0:
            panic_mode = False
            print(f"✅ Panic mode DÉSACTIVÉ le {data.index[t]}")
        else:
            panic_timer -= 1

    # 📈 3. Allocation
    if panic_mode:
        pos = 0  # 🛑 LOCK
        panic_flags.append(1)
    else:
        proba_next = last_transmat[last_state]
        pos = proba_next[0]*1 + proba_next[1]*0.5 + proba_next[2]*(-0.5) + proba_next[3]*(-1)
        last_state = np.argmax(proba_next)
        panic_flags.append(0)

    r_tomorrow = data['Log_Returns'].iloc[t + 1]
    positions.append(pos)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])
    returns_strategy.append(pos * r_tomorrow)

# 📊 Résultats
df_panic = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Panic_Mode': panic_flags
}).set_index('Date')

df_panic['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df_panic['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df_panic['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df_panic.index]).cumprod()

# 📈 Graphe perf + panic zones
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
plt.plot(df_panic.index, df_panic['Cumulative_Market'], label='Buy & Hold', linestyle='--', color='gray')
plt.plot(df_panic.index, df_panic['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='Stratégie HMM pondérée + Panic Mode', color='darkred')

# Barres rouges pour panic
for i in range(len(df_panic)):
    if df_panic['Panic_Mode'].iloc[i] == 1:
        plt.axvline(df_panic.index[i], color='red', alpha=0.02)

plt.title("Performance stratégie HMM pondérée à 4 régimes + Panic Mode")
plt.ylabel("Capital (base 1)")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 📊 Statistiques
mean = df_panic['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol = df_panic['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)

print("\n📊 Résultats finaux :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé : {mean:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée : {vol:.2%}")

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   0%|                                                                                                                                          | 0/5847 [00:00<?, ?it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1442.9777168634816 is not greater than 1443.3002048498747. Delta is -0.32248798639307097
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1439.9977997959459 is not greater than 1440.0049497286714. Delta is -0.00714993272549691
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   0%|▏                                                                                                                                | 11/5847 [00:00<01:04, 90.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1444.9131010474443 is not greater than 1445.1511722782927. Delta is -0.23807123084839077
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   0%|▍                                                                                                                                | 21/5847 [00:00<01:01, 94.35it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   1%|▋                                                                                                                                | 31/5847 [00:00<01:05, 88.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1448.5274301985862 is not greater than 1448.5833553759528. Delta is -0.055925177366589196
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   1%|▉                                                                                                                                | 41/5847 [00:00<01:03, 91.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1461.9929012934963 is not greater than 1461.9937667406962. Delta is -0.0008654471998852387
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   1%|█▏                                                                                                                               | 51/5847 [00:00<01:12, 80.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1456.1111792309337 is not greater than 1456.1812542663117. Delta is -0.0700750353780677
Model is not converging.  Current: 1453.5122713700675 is not greater than 1453.5229701281817. Delta is -0.010698758114131124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1470.2752765673908 is not greater than 1471.4008513647066. Delta is -1.1255747973157213
Model is not converging.  Current: 1462.1771424957665 is not greater than 1462.576673859996. Delta is -0.39953136422946045
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   1%|█▌                                                                                                                              | 71/5847 [00:00<00:52, 110.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1475.6009305021278 is not greater than 1475.652789965175. Delta is -0.0518594630473217
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.408116991528 is not greater than 1477.7748430906256. Delta is -0.3667260990976047
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   1%|█▉                                                                                                                              | 86/5847 [00:00<00:47, 120.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1473.684444688011 is not greater than 1473.7698568910164. Delta is -0.08541220300548957
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1461.7912793897674 is not greater than 1461.8209006449842. Delta is -0.02962125521685266
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   2%|██▏                                                                                                                             | 99/5847 [00:00<00:48, 118.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1470.2260674968459 is not greater than 1470.250259479469. Delta is -0.024191982623051445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.507732707825 is not greater than 1481.956128541495. Delta is -0.4483958336700198
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1473.328935875846 is not greater than 1473.9002915146875. Delta is -0.5713556388416237
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   2%|██▍                                                                                                                            | 112/5847 [00:01<00:51, 111.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.1474342250704 is not greater than 1477.2882516035993. Delta is -0.1408173785289364
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1476.7349242184641 is not greater than 1476.743063157575. Delta is -0.00813893911094965
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   2%|██▋                                                                                                                            | 124/5847 [00:01<00:52, 108.92it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1463.1631069000498 is not greater than 1463.2877273676747. Delta is -0.12462046762493628
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1466.1230698782654 is not greater than 1466.5632221452338. Delta is -0.44015226696842547
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   2%|███                                                                                                                            | 141/5847 [00:01<00:53, 106.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1445.784070370867 is not greater than 1445.810039181425. Delta is -0.025968810557969846
Model is not converging.  Current: 1445.0221840729662 is not greater than 1445.4965940962084. Delta is -0.4744100232421715
Model is not converging.  Current: 1434.319867522839 is not greater than 1434.9361484848107. Delta is -0.6162809619715972
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   3%|███▍                                                                                                                           | 156/5847 [00:01<00:49, 115.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1420.27351702758 is not greater than 1420.3486100457376. Delta is -0.07509301815753133
Model is not converging.  Current: 1424.7477527826109 is not greater than 1424.846418411702. Delta is -0.09866562909110144
Model is not converging.  Current: 1409.6231233998653 is not greater than 1409.6235374603968. Delta is -0.00041406053151149536
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   3%|███▋                                                                                                                           | 172/5847 [00:01<00:44, 127.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1410.3349784504348 is not greater than 1410.4732878534269. Delta is -0.13830940299203576
Model is not converging.  Current: 1405.9880311156244 is not greater than 1406.0058758532678. Delta is -0.017844737643372355
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   3%|████                                                                                                                           | 186/5847 [00:01<00:45, 124.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1412.7156270040425 is not greater than 1412.8154970051423. Delta is -0.09987000109981636
Model is not converging.  Current: 1391.4780867486716 is not greater than 1391.4878003246135. Delta is -0.009713575941987074
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   3%|████▎                                                                                                                          | 201/5847 [00:01<00:47, 119.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1384.5767963064548 is not greater than 1384.6140903269143. Delta is -0.03729402045951247
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   4%|████▋                                                                                                                          | 214/5847 [00:01<00:48, 116.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1388.9206660055972 is not greater than 1389.0249119351397. Delta is -0.10424592954245782
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   4%|████▉                                                                                                                          | 226/5847 [00:02<00:52, 106.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1374.0489815422616 is not greater than 1374.1565226595508. Delta is -0.10754111728920179
Model is not converging.  Current: 1387.636268325486 is not greater than 1387.6417955215743. Delta is -0.005527196088223718
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   4%|█████▏                                                                                                                         | 241/5847 [00:02<00:50, 110.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1416.6280594757075 is not greater than 1416.6360763329574. Delta is -0.0080168572499133
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1390.4047336832718 is not greater than 1390.4184234377549. Delta is -0.013689754483038996
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   4%|█████▌                                                                                                                         | 256/5847 [00:02<00:49, 113.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1394.4347421591333 is not greater than 1394.4370278959937. Delta is -0.0022857368603581563
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1391.912871329661 is not greater than 1391.9175889712835. Delta is -0.00471764162261934
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   5%|█████▉                                                                                                                         | 271/5847 [00:02<00:50, 109.64it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1392.259812659441 is not greater than 1392.26959391863. Delta is -0.009781259189139746
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   5%|██████▏                                                                                                                         | 283/5847 [00:02<01:01, 91.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   5%|██████▍                                                                                                                         | 293/5847 [00:02<01:00, 91.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   5%|██████▋                                                                                                                         | 303/5847 [00:02<01:04, 86.22it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1380.4348417566198 is not greater than 1380.4679682648582. Delta is -0.03312650823841068
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   5%|██████▊                                                                                                                         | 314/5847 [00:03<01:00, 91.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1422.2900784741819 is not greater than 1422.293091525543. Delta is -0.0030130513612220966
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   6%|███████                                                                                                                         | 324/5847 [00:03<01:07, 82.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   6%|███████▎                                                                                                                        | 333/5847 [00:03<01:14, 73.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   6%|███████▍                                                                                                                        | 341/5847 [00:03<01:16, 71.70it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   6%|███████▋                                                                                                                        | 351/5847 [00:03<01:20, 67.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1419.129079915395 is not greater than 1419.2046819582292. Delta is -0.07560204283413441
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   6%|████████                                                                                                                        | 366/5847 [00:03<01:12, 75.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1395.5237570538884 is not greater than 1395.5616078653682. Delta is -0.037850811479756885
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|████████▎                                                                                                                       | 381/5847 [00:03<01:01, 89.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1404.8468568801786 is not greater than 1404.9222604543934. Delta is -0.07540357421476074
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|████████▌                                                                                                                       | 391/5847 [00:03<01:01, 88.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1403.9294411265791 is not greater than 1404.0196514631589. Delta is -0.09021033657973021
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|████████▊                                                                                                                       | 401/5847 [00:04<01:00, 89.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|████████▉                                                                                                                       | 411/5847 [00:04<01:05, 83.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▏                                                                                                                      | 420/5847 [00:04<01:07, 80.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▍                                                                                                                      | 429/5847 [00:04<01:16, 70.93it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▌                                                                                                                      | 437/5847 [00:04<01:17, 69.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1415.539786348378 is not greater than 1415.563770662293. Delta is -0.023984313915207167
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   8%|█████████▊                                                                                                                      | 446/5847 [00:04<01:16, 70.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   8%|█████████▉                                                                                                                      | 456/5847 [00:04<01:09, 77.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▏                                                                                                                     | 466/5847 [00:04<01:07, 79.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▍                                                                                                                     | 476/5847 [00:05<01:06, 81.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▋                                                                                                                     | 486/5847 [00:05<01:08, 78.64it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▊                                                                                                                     | 496/5847 [00:05<01:10, 75.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1462.5435369264526 is not greater than 1462.5456089072989. Delta is -0.0020719808462672518
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   9%|███████████                                                                                                                     | 506/5847 [00:05<01:08, 78.06it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▍                                                                                                                    | 521/5847 [00:05<00:57, 92.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1467.671728100501 is not greater than 1467.7385298322545. Delta is -0.06680173175345772
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▌                                                                                                                    | 531/5847 [00:05<00:56, 93.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1433.4326846287022 is not greater than 1433.4518477173808. Delta is -0.019163088678624263
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▊                                                                                                                   | 546/5847 [00:05<00:51, 103.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1468.5933921977157 is not greater than 1468.6082169807187. Delta is -0.014824783002950426
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  10%|████████████▏                                                                                                                  | 561/5847 [00:05<00:48, 109.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1464.6054059020914 is not greater than 1464.6549363414933. Delta is -0.049530439401905824
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  10%|████████████▌                                                                                                                  | 576/5847 [00:06<00:47, 111.74it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  10%|████████████▊                                                                                                                  | 588/5847 [00:06<00:48, 108.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.916361122993 is not greater than 1491.066322990304. Delta is -0.14996186731082162
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.0122535394473 is not greater than 1490.0559327168244. Delta is -0.04367917737704374
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1450.1006420742037 is not greater than 1450.2042720526426. Delta is -0.10362997843890298
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  10%|█████████████                                                                                                                  | 601/5847 [00:06<00:50, 104.68it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  11%|█████████████▍                                                                                                                 | 616/5847 [00:06<00:50, 103.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1507.6517732527225 is not greater than 1507.7668402264846. Delta is -0.11506697376216835
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  11%|█████████████▌                                                                                                                 | 627/5847 [00:06<00:51, 101.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1522.0757869640263 is not greater than 1522.1844026215983. Delta is -0.10861565757204517
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  11%|█████████████▉                                                                                                                  | 638/5847 [00:06<00:54, 96.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.318199376594 is not greater than 1499.3369320054114. Delta is -0.01873262881736082
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.761136514053 is not greater than 1538.0800094038013. Delta is -0.31887288974826333
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▏                                                                                                                 | 648/5847 [00:06<00:57, 91.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.8563525929108 is not greater than 1535.8613501468417. Delta is -0.004997553930934373
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▍                                                                                                                 | 658/5847 [00:06<00:58, 88.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.4878816355958 is not greater than 1559.618028712507. Delta is -0.13014707691127114
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▋                                                                                                                 | 671/5847 [00:07<00:53, 96.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1573.3785550693763 is not greater than 1573.5232443895225. Delta is -0.14468932014619895
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1580.1975253910086 is not greater than 1580.7371903597984. Delta is -0.5396649687897934
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.3143399811436 is not greater than 1585.3359180350117. Delta is -0.021578053868097413
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████                                                                                                                | 691/5847 [00:07<00:44, 115.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1579.052115340721 is not greater than 1579.132323213915. Delta is -0.08020787319401279
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1603.7913601331245 is not greater than 1604.3432447478344. Delta is -0.5518846147099339
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████▎                                                                                                               | 703/5847 [00:07<00:45, 113.95it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1604.9332500135104 is not greater than 1604.953936236221. Delta is -0.02068622271053755
Model is not converging.  Current: 1605.2207269945457 is not greater than 1605.3968189739064. Delta is -0.1760919793607627
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1609.4840163618985 is not greater than 1609.5698514438698. Delta is -0.08583508197125411
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████▌                                                                                                               | 716/5847 [00:07<00:45, 113.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1615.2015545913277 is not greater than 1615.2197491558843. Delta is -0.018194564556551995
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.709102284394 is not greater than 1624.2072352278074. Delta is -0.4981329434133386
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  13%|███████████████▉                                                                                                               | 731/5847 [00:07<00:42, 119.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.210937971597 is not greater than 1633.2980675950848. Delta is -0.08712962348772635
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.1991834599621 is not greater than 1635.7699878484443. Delta is -0.5708043884822018
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  13%|████████████████▎                                                                                                              | 751/5847 [00:07<00:40, 125.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1634.6050617835988 is not greater than 1634.6128934382987. Delta is -0.007831654699884893
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  13%|████████████████▋                                                                                                              | 766/5847 [00:07<00:42, 120.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1618.028310577241 is not greater than 1618.1412991435811. Delta is -0.11298856634016374
Model is not converging.  Current: 1668.794207568593 is not greater than 1668.9768793740593. Delta is -0.1826718054662706
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  13%|████████████████▉                                                                                                              | 781/5847 [00:07<00:41, 122.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1674.5529234292967 is not greater than 1675.2492139864494. Delta is -0.696290557152679
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1678.930803033681 is not greater than 1679.2393062320778. Delta is -0.3085031983966928
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1680.8693647201574 is not greater than 1681.266965815099. Delta is -0.39760109494159224
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  14%|█████████████████▎                                                                                                             | 796/5847 [00:08<00:41, 121.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  14%|█████████████████▌                                                                                                             | 809/5847 [00:08<00:41, 121.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  14%|█████████████████▊                                                                                                             | 822/5847 [00:08<00:43, 114.82it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  14%|██████████████████▏                                                                                                            | 836/5847 [00:08<00:42, 118.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1728.172765840468 is not greater than 1728.1753881054099. Delta is -0.0026222649419196387
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  15%|██████████████████▍                                                                                                            | 851/5847 [00:08<00:39, 125.66it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  15%|██████████████████▊                                                                                                            | 866/5847 [00:08<00:38, 130.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  15%|███████████████████▏                                                                                                           | 881/5847 [00:08<00:36, 134.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  15%|███████████████████▍                                                                                                           | 896/5847 [00:08<00:35, 138.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  16%|███████████████████▊                                                                                                           | 911/5847 [00:08<00:35, 139.62it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  16%|████████████████████▏                                                                                                          | 931/5847 [00:09<00:33, 146.69it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  16%|████████████████████▌                                                                                                          | 946/5847 [00:09<00:33, 144.16it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  17%|████████████████████▉                                                                                                          | 966/5847 [00:09<00:32, 150.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  17%|█████████████████████▎                                                                                                         | 981/5847 [00:09<00:33, 144.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  17%|█████████████████████▋                                                                                                         | 996/5847 [00:09<00:35, 137.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  17%|█████████████████████▊                                                                                                        | 1011/5847 [00:09<00:34, 138.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  18%|██████████████████████                                                                                                        | 1026/5847 [00:09<00:34, 138.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  18%|██████████████████████▍                                                                                                       | 1041/5847 [00:09<00:34, 137.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  18%|██████████████████████▊                                                                                                       | 1056/5847 [00:09<00:34, 139.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  18%|███████████████████████                                                                                                       | 1071/5847 [00:10<00:35, 135.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  19%|███████████████████████▍                                                                                                      | 1086/5847 [00:10<00:34, 137.35it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  19%|███████████████████████▊                                                                                                      | 1106/5847 [00:10<00:32, 143.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  19%|████████████████████████▏                                                                                                     | 1125/5847 [00:10<00:30, 156.08it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  20%|████████████████████████▌                                                                                                     | 1141/5847 [00:10<00:32, 146.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  20%|████████████████████████▉                                                                                                     | 1156/5847 [00:10<00:32, 144.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  20%|█████████████████████████▎                                                                                                    | 1173/5847 [00:10<00:30, 151.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  20%|█████████████████████████▌                                                                                                    | 1189/5847 [00:10<00:31, 147.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  21%|█████████████████████████▉                                                                                                    | 1204/5847 [00:10<00:32, 143.77it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1793.3166380279272 is not greater than 1793.3188708674274. Delta is -0.0022328395002659818
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  21%|██████████████████████████▎                                                                                                   | 1219/5847 [00:11<00:33, 140.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  21%|██████████████████████████▌                                                                                                   | 1234/5847 [00:11<00:34, 135.65it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  21%|██████████████████████████▉                                                                                                   | 1248/5847 [00:11<00:34, 132.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  22%|███████████████████████████▏                                                                                                  | 1262/5847 [00:11<00:34, 134.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  22%|███████████████████████████▍                                                                                                  | 1276/5847 [00:11<00:34, 132.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  22%|███████████████████████████▊                                                                                                  | 1291/5847 [00:11<00:34, 132.08it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1797.9345314124043 is not greater than 1798.138923356599. Delta is -0.20439194419464002
Model is not converging.  Current: 1767.5243857129458 is not greater than 1767.9251526784315. Delta is -0.4007669654856727
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  22%|████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                 | 1306/5847 [00:11<00:34, 132.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1789.7384340311587 is not greater than 1789.7431759445305. Delta is -0.00474191337184493
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  23%|████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                 | 1321/5847 [00:11<00:35, 125.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1794.8488611367288 is not greater than 1795.0276415610901. Delta is -0.1787804243613209
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1769.0312854740139 is not greater than 1769.6041603676679. Delta is -0.5728748936539887
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1741.1027494004052 is not greater than 1741.229369288665. Delta is -0.1266198882599383
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  23%|████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                 | 1336/5847 [00:12<00:36, 124.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1775.6833017119045 is not greater than 1775.9281239220365. Delta is -0.24482221013204253
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1777.5719834266183 is not greater than 1777.914106575089. Delta is -0.34212314847059133
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  23%|█████████████████████████████                                                                                                 | 1351/5847 [00:12<00:37, 121.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1810.0716548353894 is not greater than 1810.0972017164847. Delta is -0.025546881095351637
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1776.5243890954284 is not greater than 1776.7261936353439. Delta is -0.2018045399154289
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1808.9319125772122 is not greater than 1809.120910952885. Delta is -0.18899837567278155
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  23%|█████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                | 1366/5847 [00:12<00:34, 128.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1799.8893238460682 is not greater than 1799.912445387392. Delta is -0.0231215413236896
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1797.6831387010589 is not greater than 1797.9166421133025. Delta is -0.23350341224363547
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  24%|█████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                | 1381/5847 [00:12<00:33, 131.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1799.506634769119 is not greater than 1799.7546644386935. Delta is -0.2480296695744073
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1793.5264518840754 is not greater than 1793.5511789030809. Delta is -0.02472701900546781
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1794.4058728966183 is not greater than 1794.680734537287. Delta is -0.2748616406686324
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  24%|██████████████████████████████                                                                                                | 1396/5847 [00:12<00:33, 133.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1781.9220023944417 is not greater than 1782.6103278099624. Delta is -0.6883254155206942
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1778.893480009512 is not greater than 1779.1701719650791. Delta is -0.27669195556723025
Model is not converging.  Current: 1759.5779317106321 is not greater than 1760.054991412171. Delta is -0.47705970153879207
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  24%|██████████████████████████████▍                                                                                               | 1411/5847 [00:12<00:33, 132.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1756.6451171280337 is not greater than 1756.6559013866463. Delta is -0.01078425861260257
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  24%|██████████████████████████████▋                                                                                               | 1426/5847 [00:12<00:33, 133.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1737.699189809615 is not greater than 1738.412576803812. Delta is -0.7133869941969806
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  25%|███████████████████████████████                                                                                               | 1441/5847 [00:12<00:33, 130.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1729.7279887208083 is not greater than 1730.1578616488741. Delta is -0.42987292806583355
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1707.3394225414836 is not greater than 1707.7083580481399. Delta is -0.3689355066562712
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1707.8192442877262 is not greater than 1708.0492588878737. Delta is -0.23001460014756958
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  25%|███████████████████████████████▍                                                                                              | 1456/5847 [00:12<00:33, 132.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1728.7272751012101 is not greater than 1730.6462681556739. Delta is -1.9189930544637264
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1708.9206616337522 is not greater than 1709.2337479863966. Delta is -0.31308635264440454
Model is not converging.  Current: 1729.7604808825913 is not greater than 1730.132423256209. Delta is -0.371942373617685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  25%|███████████████████████████████▋                                                                                              | 1471/5847 [00:13<00:32, 133.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1720.318076834024 is not greater than 1720.824093394625. Delta is -0.5060165606009832
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1713.217137238742 is not greater than 1714.0542882776151. Delta is -0.8371510388731167
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1692.9611523664234 is not greater than 1693.8766543601191. Delta is -0.9155019936956705
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  26%|████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                             | 1491/5847 [00:13<00:31, 138.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1691.8303394423106 is not greater than 1692.9833155706563. Delta is -1.1529761283456992
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1684.081457269291 is not greater than 1684.38668197399. Delta is -0.30522470469918517
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  26%|████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                             | 1506/5847 [00:13<00:31, 138.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1675.4197311216237 is not greater than 1677.4123643227788. Delta is -1.9926332011550585
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1672.4569633532592 is not greater than 1674.442812627178. Delta is -1.9858492739188023
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  26%|████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                             | 1521/5847 [00:13<00:31, 137.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1676.5051619127325 is not greater than 1678.7435708629246. Delta is -2.2384089501920243
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.9177901287505 is not greater than 1639.989062766857. Delta is -0.07127263810639306
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  26%|█████████████████████████████████                                                                                             | 1536/5847 [00:13<00:30, 140.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1642.3891265689242 is not greater than 1643.01217280546. Delta is -0.6230462365358562
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  27%|█████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                            | 1551/5847 [00:13<00:31, 134.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1618.2633907314835 is not greater than 1619.6218630231795. Delta is -1.358472291695989
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  27%|█████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                            | 1566/5847 [00:13<00:34, 124.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1611.8452684025924 is not greater than 1611.9052580796163. Delta is -0.05998967702385016
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1621.466889102843 is not greater than 1622.6795735324934. Delta is -1.2126844296503805
Model is not converging.  Current: 1587.4376100964996 is not greater than 1587.4453339195304. Delta is -0.0077238230308012135
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  27%|██████████████████████████████████                                                                                            | 1581/5847 [00:13<00:33, 127.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.4093466211623 is not greater than 1583.5673460818298. Delta is -0.15799946066749726
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  27%|██████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                           | 1596/5847 [00:13<00:32, 132.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1593.0202848891445 is not greater than 1594.5863119857272. Delta is -1.5660270965827294
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1595.0074667627514 is not greater than 1595.3944964318955. Delta is -0.38702966914411263
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1582.957838095319 is not greater than 1583.5406862192642. Delta is -0.5828481239452685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1601.3345710075155 is not greater than 1601.465905567771. Delta is -0.13133456025548185
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  28%|██████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                           | 1616/5847 [00:14<00:30, 140.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1593.5546728601946 is not greater than 1594.3123292290807. Delta is -0.757656368886046
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1590.5010978102725 is not greater than 1591.763947513278. Delta is -1.262849703005486
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  28%|███████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                          | 1631/5847 [00:14<00:29, 141.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1574.9475776579272 is not greater than 1575.0937681404575. Delta is -0.14619048253030087
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1572.070051200119 is not greater than 1572.0712882419991. Delta is -0.0012370418801310734
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  28%|███████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                          | 1646/5847 [00:14<00:34, 120.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.4339973057768 is not greater than 1585.6803804592162. Delta is -0.2463831534394103
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1578.591686404207 is not greater than 1578.6172152585598. Delta is -0.025528854352842245
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  28%|███████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                          | 1659/5847 [00:14<00:35, 119.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1565.081170183478 is not greater than 1565.1484504130342. Delta is -0.06728022955621782
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1567.0002985792328 is not greater than 1567.211075190821. Delta is -0.21077661158824412
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1562.2050684604396 is not greater than 1563.0062375813543. Delta is -0.8011691209146647
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  29%|████████████████████████████████████                                                                                          | 1672/5847 [00:14<00:39, 104.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.1154202925516 is not greater than 1555.23909849715. Delta is -0.12367820459849099
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  29%|████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                         | 1683/5847 [00:14<00:40, 103.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.0332662213414 is not greater than 1529.0831795715792. Delta is -1.04991335023783
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  29%|████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                         | 1696/5847 [00:14<00:39, 104.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1509.7289670542013 is not greater than 1509.7495035279524. Delta is -0.02053647375100809
Model is not converging.  Current: 1504.6105727486583 is not greater than 1504.6968733357478. Delta is -0.08630058708945398
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  29%|█████████████████████████████████████                                                                                          | 1707/5847 [00:15<00:44, 93.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.6084158977978 is not greater than 1492.6355122536454. Delta is -0.027096355847561426
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  29%|█████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                         | 1717/5847 [00:15<00:43, 94.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1478.0008729824735 is not greater than 1478.050459248889. Delta is -0.04958626641541741
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1466.5923368909462 is not greater than 1466.631881036847. Delta is -0.039544145900890726

🛑 Panic mode ACTIVÉ le 2008-10-10 00:00:00

🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  30%|█████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                         | 1727/5847 [00:15<00:43, 95.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1457.615289416039 is not greater than 1457.6587443921355. Delta is -0.043454976096427345
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  30%|█████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                         | 1737/5847 [00:15<00:46, 89.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1442.993516049562 is not greater than 1442.9981194057739. Delta is -0.004603356211873688
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  30%|█████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                         | 1747/5847 [00:15<00:45, 89.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)

✅ Panic mode DÉSACTIVÉ le 2008-11-26 00:00:00

Model is not converging.  Current: 1416.4186092986847 is not greater than 1416.4268034567042. Delta is -0.008194158019477982
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  30%|██████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                        | 1757/5847 [00:15<00:46, 88.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1413.1202625581122 is not greater than 1413.134873074203. Delta is -0.01461051609066999
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  30%|██████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                        | 1766/5847 [00:15<00:47, 85.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1400.1085368682948 is not greater than 1400.1342153351309. Delta is -0.02567846683609787
Model is not converging.  Current: 1388.5140010450605 is not greater than 1388.661734985592. Delta is -0.1477339405314524
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  30%|██████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                        | 1780/5847 [00:15<00:40, 99.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1375.4512432844926 is not greater than 1375.4904914576293. Delta is -0.03924817313668427
Model is not converging.  Current: 1366.516324668704 is not greater than 1366.5345651981188. Delta is -0.01824052941469745
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  31%|██████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                        | 1791/5847 [00:16<00:49, 82.13it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  31%|███████████████████████████████████████                                                                                        | 1800/5847 [00:16<00:48, 83.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1344.8495825009948 is not greater than 1344.8523589922365. Delta is -0.0027764912417751475
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  31%|███████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                       | 1809/5847 [00:16<00:52, 76.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  31%|███████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                       | 1818/5847 [00:16<00:52, 76.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  31%|███████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                       | 1826/5847 [00:16<01:01, 65.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1322.498245430733 is not greater than 1322.510839539258. Delta is -0.012594108525036063
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  31%|███████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                       | 1836/5847 [00:16<00:59, 67.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  32%|████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                       | 1846/5847 [00:16<00:56, 70.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1307.0931162086924 is not greater than 1307.1482237566008. Delta is -0.05510754790839201
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  32%|████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                      | 1861/5847 [00:16<00:51, 77.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  32%|████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                      | 1871/5847 [00:17<00:53, 73.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  32%|████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                      | 1881/5847 [00:17<00:54, 72.59it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  32%|█████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                      | 1891/5847 [00:17<00:54, 73.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1281.781265755994 is not greater than 1281.7818172877135. Delta is -0.0005515317195659009
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  33%|█████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                     | 1911/5847 [00:17<00:52, 75.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  33%|█████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                     | 1926/5847 [00:17<00:47, 82.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  33%|██████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                     | 1936/5847 [00:17<00:48, 80.20it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  33%|██████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                    | 1956/5847 [00:18<00:49, 79.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  34%|██████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                    | 1966/5847 [00:18<00:48, 79.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  34%|███████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                    | 1984/5847 [00:18<01:02, 62.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  34%|███████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                   | 1991/5847 [00:18<01:04, 59.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1289.206075233807 is not greater than 1289.4634255084686. Delta is -0.2573502746615759
Model is not converging.  Current: 1298.0866741624402 is not greater than 1298.0867978281906. Delta is -0.00012366575037958683
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  34%|███████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                   | 2006/5847 [00:18<00:54, 70.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  34%|███████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                   | 2016/5847 [00:19<00:52, 72.74it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  35%|████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                   | 2026/5847 [00:19<00:52, 72.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1311.3008315212496 is not greater than 1311.3018702057839. Delta is -0.0010386845342509332
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  35%|████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                  | 2036/5847 [00:19<00:53, 71.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  35%|████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                  | 2046/5847 [00:19<00:54, 69.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1308.783525102104 is not greater than 1308.7880231190184. Delta is -0.004498016914340042
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  35%|████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                  | 2056/5847 [00:19<00:50, 75.79it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  35%|████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                  | 2066/5847 [00:19<00:51, 73.66it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  36%|█████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                  | 2076/5847 [00:19<00:54, 69.22it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  36%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                 | 2086/5847 [00:20<01:01, 61.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1341.4667840235757 is not greater than 1341.467367691967. Delta is -0.0005836683913003071
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  36%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                 | 2096/5847 [00:20<01:01, 61.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1333.037266000477 is not greater than 1333.046168331974. Delta is -0.008902331496983606
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  36%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                 | 2116/5847 [00:20<00:58, 63.93it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  36%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                | 2131/5847 [00:20<00:50, 72.98it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  37%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                | 2141/5847 [00:20<00:54, 68.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  37%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                | 2161/5847 [00:21<00:51, 71.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1328.5186813350504 is not greater than 1328.8219778680486. Delta is -0.3032965329982744
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  37%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                               | 2171/5847 [00:21<00:49, 74.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  37%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                               | 2181/5847 [00:21<00:51, 71.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1332.5075195026552 is not greater than 1332.5302774729598. Delta is -0.022757970304610353
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  37%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                               | 2191/5847 [00:21<00:49, 74.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  38%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                               | 2206/5847 [00:21<00:42, 85.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1367.6497266626 is not greater than 1367.6708730045887. Delta is -0.021146341988696804
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  38%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                              | 2216/5847 [00:21<00:41, 86.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  38%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                              | 2226/5847 [00:22<00:47, 75.93it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  38%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                              | 2234/5847 [00:22<00:47, 76.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1413.9444526117704 is not greater than 1414.3194313334984. Delta is -0.3749787217279845
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1398.1764641823104 is not greater than 1398.2364129547948. Delta is -0.05994877248440389
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  38%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                              | 2242/5847 [00:22<00:47, 75.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1407.634557103159 is not greater than 1407.868840603814. Delta is -0.23428350065501036
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  38%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                              | 2251/5847 [00:22<00:50, 71.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1412.9031971654226 is not greater than 1412.9072330778065. Delta is -0.0040359123838698
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  39%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                              | 2261/5847 [00:22<00:48, 73.36it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1465.000232861974 is not greater than 1465.0263283672498. Delta is -0.026095505275861797
Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.4702440123835 is not greater than 1446.712961200113. Delta is -0.24271718772956774
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  39%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                             | 2276/5847 [00:22<00:40, 88.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1473.6031837961432 is not greater than 1473.7053476889168. Delta is -0.10216389277366034
Model is not converging.  Current: 1458.1984676428935 is not greater than 1458.2507608500403. Delta is -0.052293207146703935
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  39%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                             | 2286/5847 [00:22<00:40, 87.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.1733601894014 is not greater than 1492.2052419605604. Delta is -0.0318817711590782
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  39%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                             | 2296/5847 [00:22<00:43, 81.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.6998963969656 is not greater than 1481.762039423969. Delta is -0.062143027003457973
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  39%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                             | 2306/5847 [00:23<00:42, 82.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.9384022664717 is not greater than 1491.950594567239. Delta is -0.012192300767310371
Model is not converging.  Current: 1505.939456641264 is not greater than 1506.192459862029. Delta is -0.25300322076486736
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  40%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                            | 2316/5847 [00:23<00:40, 86.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1511.875681692493 is not greater than 1512.0160455038924. Delta is -0.14036381139953846
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.7761700899093 is not greater than 1523.862049206484. Delta is -0.08587911657468794
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.6749726499077 is not greater than 1529.7511432014726. Delta is -1.0761705515649282
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  40%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                           | 2331/5847 [00:23<00:34, 102.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1527.0416808245989 is not greater than 1527.047283989495. Delta is -0.005603164896228918
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.953213678514 is not greater than 1539.4136363492648. Delta is -0.46042267075085874
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  40%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                           | 2346/5847 [00:23<00:32, 107.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1547.2920138841287 is not greater than 1547.4048878353692. Delta is -0.11287395124054456
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.32492849549 is not greater than 1549.3435602747354. Delta is -0.018631779245424696
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1569.1727004882025 is not greater than 1570.383803992364. Delta is -1.2111035041614286
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  40%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                           | 2361/5847 [00:23<00:29, 116.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1558.9608293027168 is not greater than 1559.0787639049556. Delta is -0.11793460223884722
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1576.365834861867 is not greater than 1576.8792463088666. Delta is -0.5134114469997257
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1571.73864507219 is not greater than 1573.7156047813337. Delta is -1.9769597091437845
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  41%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                          | 2376/5847 [00:23<00:28, 120.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1570.878125134343 is not greater than 1571.2803820525228. Delta is -0.4022569181797735
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.9379531550812 is not greater than 1585.1673638022467. Delta is -1.2294106471654231
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  41%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                          | 2391/5847 [00:23<00:28, 122.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1579.0363183259788 is not greater than 1579.5393606656637. Delta is -0.5030423396849528
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1584.8233631221055 is not greater than 1584.9498715322527. Delta is -0.12650841014715297
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1575.292349465099 is not greater than 1575.6395081038036. Delta is -0.3471586387045136
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  41%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                          | 2406/5847 [00:23<00:28, 120.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.453161658938 is not greater than 1581.5492211908409. Delta is -0.09605953190293803
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  41%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                         | 2421/5847 [00:23<00:29, 115.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.7815065855682 is not greater than 1560.0204052095166. Delta is -0.23889862394844386
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.9961089219007 is not greater than 1545.5426496589084. Delta is -0.5465407370077173
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  42%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                         | 2436/5847 [00:24<00:28, 119.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.4403127530063 is not greater than 1538.5925260684842. Delta is -0.15221331547786576
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  42%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                         | 2449/5847 [00:24<00:30, 109.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1534.3558999530621 is not greater than 1534.5001866861269. Delta is -0.14428673306474593
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.2778062645355 is not greater than 1525.5008275717419. Delta is -0.2230213072064089
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  42%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                         | 2461/5847 [00:24<00:31, 107.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.4251148790781 is not greater than 1516.483205039643. Delta is -0.058090160564916005
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  42%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                        | 2476/5847 [00:24<00:30, 110.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1505.895627256051 is not greater than 1506.0030040166475. Delta is -0.10737676059648038
Model is not converging.  Current: 1503.1973381197108 is not greater than 1503.2219172994637. Delta is -0.024579179752890923
Model is not converging.  Current: 1502.5468892749507 is not greater than 1502.6213101719788. Delta is -0.07442089702817611
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  43%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                        | 2491/5847 [00:24<00:30, 111.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.5030865001927 is not greater than 1528.6519021904319. Delta is -0.14881569023918928
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.5507288092033 is not greater than 1490.8454621904243. Delta is -0.2947333812210218
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  43%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                        | 2503/5847 [00:24<00:30, 109.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.227038437286 is not greater than 1489.2467126317986. Delta is -0.01967419451261776
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1475.4637290579672 is not greater than 1476.0368947892605. Delta is -0.5731657312933294
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  43%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                       | 2516/5847 [00:24<00:32, 101.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.870401827148 is not greater than 1485.9690498909072. Delta is -0.09864806375912849
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.3406446220688 is not greater than 1483.5507047501849. Delta is -0.21006012811608343
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  43%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                       | 2527/5847 [00:24<00:32, 103.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.3734473497552 is not greater than 1481.3863850200187. Delta is -0.012937670263454493
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.696515118106 is not greater than 1483.8426777066209. Delta is -0.14616258851492603
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  43%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                       | 2538/5847 [00:25<00:36, 91.40it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1497.1988040819526 is not greater than 1497.2072531892848. Delta is -0.008449107332126005
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  44%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                       | 2548/5847 [00:25<00:40, 82.15it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  44%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                       | 2557/5847 [00:25<00:39, 83.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.2151704748105 is not greater than 1495.336203103716. Delta is -0.12103262890536826
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1498.1427163568994 is not greater than 1498.3931665163252. Delta is -0.25045015942578175
Model is not converging.  Current: 1482.7089444871542 is not greater than 1482.7726841894828. Delta is -0.06373970232857573
Model is not converging.  Current: 1498.0699048479503 is not greater than 1498.2213474293947. Delta is -0.15144258144437117
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  44%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                      | 2587/5847 [00:25<00:34, 94.38it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.8701931995365 is not greater than 1495.01641794491. Delta is -0.14622474537350172
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  44%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                      | 2601/5847 [00:25<00:36, 89.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1508.9501753529785 is not greater than 1508.9534549959828. Delta is -0.0032796430043617875
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.841206208497 is not greater than 1514.849733708751. Delta is -0.00852750025410387
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  45%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                      | 2611/5847 [00:25<00:36, 88.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1515.6450825281026 is not greater than 1515.694682539741. Delta is -0.049600011638403885
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  45%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                      | 2626/5847 [00:26<00:35, 91.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.387096315193 is not greater than 1525.5111680155007. Delta is -0.12407170030769521
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  45%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                     | 2641/5847 [00:26<00:34, 93.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.1132408993547 is not greater than 1519.1463746006107. Delta is -0.033133701256019776
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  46%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                    | 2661/5847 [00:26<00:30, 105.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1534.0010119259794 is not greater than 1534.0980065663657. Delta is -0.09699464038635597
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  46%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                    | 2672/5847 [00:26<00:29, 106.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1584.4512131170163 is not greater than 1584.521133508581. Delta is -0.0699203915646649
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  46%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                    | 2686/5847 [00:26<00:29, 108.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.1806934140145 is not greater than 1541.2006427503106. Delta is -0.019949336296122056
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.7083259446845 is not greater than 1537.7950857882422. Delta is -0.08675984355772925
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  46%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                   | 2700/5847 [00:26<00:27, 116.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.750431092717 is not greater than 1554.052762721918. Delta is -0.30233162920103496
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.4746193999765 is not greater than 1550.656637676058. Delta is -0.18201827608140775
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  46%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                   | 2712/5847 [00:26<00:27, 112.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.3296487060322 is not greater than 1553.719948412016. Delta is -0.39029970598380714
Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.2610568213092 is not greater than 1551.2790909242847. Delta is -0.018034102975434507
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  47%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                   | 2726/5847 [00:26<00:29, 107.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  47%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                   | 2741/5847 [00:27<00:27, 112.79it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  47%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                  | 2753/5847 [00:27<00:28, 110.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.7580351666206 is not greater than 1552.0742521452473. Delta is -0.3162169786266986
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  47%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                  | 2766/5847 [00:27<00:28, 107.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.6319773237717 is not greater than 1548.7307526850584. Delta is -0.09877536128669817
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1577.9454294995794 is not greater than 1577.968837353142. Delta is -0.023407853562503078
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                  | 2781/5847 [00:27<00:29, 105.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.042779298345 is not greater than 1537.1770730701512. Delta is -0.1342937718061421
Model is not converging.  Current: 1534.8337858873897 is not greater than 1534.8763131229161. Delta is -0.04252723552644966
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  48%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                 | 2796/5847 [00:27<00:30, 101.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.876342855555 is not greater than 1554.3306225615393. Delta is -0.45427970598416323
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.6698217587912 is not greater than 1548.9024327874658. Delta is -0.23261102867468253
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  48%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                 | 2811/5847 [00:27<00:28, 106.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  48%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                 | 2826/5847 [00:27<00:27, 109.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  49%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                | 2841/5847 [00:28<00:25, 116.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.7583567969423 is not greater than 1548.7818237505576. Delta is -0.023466953615297825
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.993133476304 is not greater than 1543.0750624644888. Delta is -0.08192898818492722
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.4478706870177 is not greater than 1549.4641245589924. Delta is -0.016253871974640788
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  49%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                | 2856/5847 [00:28<00:25, 117.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.2504283136964 is not greater than 1548.337334944486. Delta is -0.08690663078959915
Model is not converging.  Current: 1587.307882905096 is not greater than 1587.7364135565629. Delta is -0.42853065146687186
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.4280751123981 is not greater than 1553.4606623651187. Delta is -0.03258725272053198
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  49%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                | 2876/5847 [00:28<00:23, 126.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1588.2104867384126 is not greater than 1588.251457098341. Delta is -0.04097035992845122
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  49%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                               | 2891/5847 [00:28<00:23, 127.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  50%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                               | 2906/5847 [00:28<00:23, 125.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.656051536551 is not greater than 1551.836115055953. Delta is -0.18006351940198329
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.026556101797 is not greater than 1553.1630552183371. Delta is -0.13649911654010793
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  50%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                               | 2926/5847 [00:28<00:21, 133.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1584.3890528851523 is not greater than 1584.6372055066688. Delta is -0.2481526215165104
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1608.7541404091498 is not greater than 1609.0220972038114. Delta is -0.2679567946615862
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  50%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                              | 2941/5847 [00:28<00:21, 137.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1615.2581912497758 is not greater than 1615.4656253438038. Delta is -0.2074340940280308
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.7165234865631 is not greater than 1633.7524663402528. Delta is -0.03594285368967576
Model is not converging.  Current: 1638.6910319981907 is not greater than 1638.824299778167. Delta is -0.1332677799762223
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  51%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                              | 2956/5847 [00:28<00:21, 131.77it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1647.9006907374617 is not greater than 1647.97560683342. Delta is -0.07491609595831505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1658.19717257643 is not greater than 1660.0025381667988. Delta is -1.805365590368865
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  51%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                              | 2971/5847 [00:29<00:22, 129.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1649.9982356045266 is not greater than 1650.0322036143807. Delta is -0.03396800985410664
Model is not converging.  Current: 1657.963349271184 is not greater than 1658.3055007733508. Delta is -0.34215150216687107
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  51%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                             | 2986/5847 [00:29<00:22, 124.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1690.026988087224 is not greater than 1690.2073376236422. Delta is -0.18034953641813445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  51%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                             | 3000/5847 [00:29<00:22, 128.67it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                             | 3013/5847 [00:29<00:24, 114.97it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  52%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                            | 3026/5847 [00:29<00:27, 104.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  52%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                             | 3037/5847 [00:29<00:29, 95.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  52%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                            | 3051/5847 [00:29<00:27, 100.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  52%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                            | 3066/5847 [00:29<00:26, 104.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                           | 3077/5847 [00:30<00:27, 102.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                           | 3088/5847 [00:30<00:26, 103.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                           | 3101/5847 [00:30<00:24, 110.07it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  53%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                          | 3116/5847 [00:30<00:22, 119.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1724.0441414017534 is not greater than 1724.466545335596. Delta is -0.42240393384258823
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                          | 3131/5847 [00:30<00:22, 119.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                          | 3144/5847 [00:30<00:22, 121.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  54%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                          | 3157/5847 [00:30<00:25, 103.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1757.2212116066623 is not greater than 1757.2468702262158. Delta is -0.025658619553496465
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  54%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                         | 3171/5847 [00:30<00:26, 101.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1758.6118850669202 is not greater than 1758.850925050844. Delta is -0.2390399839237034
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  54%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                         | 3186/5847 [00:31<00:23, 112.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                         | 3201/5847 [00:31<00:22, 119.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1761.4973515549805 is not greater than 1761.569295181432. Delta is -0.07194362645145702
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  55%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                        | 3219/5847 [00:31<00:19, 135.49it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  55%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                        | 3234/5847 [00:31<00:20, 125.00it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1758.9677688510885 is not greater than 1758.9819792954015. Delta is -0.014210444312993786
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1761.7126829311812 is not greater than 1762.28629356303. Delta is -0.573610631848851
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  56%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                        | 3251/5847 [00:31<00:20, 125.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  56%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                       | 3266/5847 [00:31<00:19, 129.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1735.9474008710722 is not greater than 1735.951978127171. Delta is -0.004577256098855287
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  56%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                       | 3281/5847 [00:31<00:20, 123.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1744.23832023695 is not greater than 1744.3541680312285. Delta is -0.11584779427857939
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  56%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                       | 3296/5847 [00:31<00:20, 125.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                      | 3311/5847 [00:31<00:20, 122.02it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                      | 3326/5847 [00:32<00:21, 115.96it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                      | 3341/5847 [00:32<00:21, 118.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  57%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                     | 3356/5847 [00:32<00:20, 119.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                     | 3371/5847 [00:32<00:21, 114.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                     | 3386/5847 [00:32<00:20, 119.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  58%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                    | 3401/5847 [00:32<00:19, 123.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  58%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                    | 3416/5847 [00:32<00:19, 126.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  59%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                    | 3431/5847 [00:32<00:19, 124.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  59%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                   | 3444/5847 [00:33<00:19, 122.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1716.7902900483052 is not greater than 1716.8141822700352. Delta is -0.023892221729965968
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  59%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                    | 3457/5847 [00:33<00:24, 95.82it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  59%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                   | 3468/5847 [00:33<00:27, 87.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                   | 3481/5847 [00:33<00:26, 89.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                   | 3496/5847 [00:33<00:24, 97.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1690.5253556056482 is not greater than 1690.5426613444358. Delta is -0.01730573878762698
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  60%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                  | 3507/5847 [00:33<00:25, 92.40it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1686.0109091474644 is not greater than 1686.0961178089374. Delta is -0.08520866147296147
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  60%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                  | 3521/5847 [00:33<00:24, 95.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  60%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                  | 3531/5847 [00:34<00:25, 91.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.048747712569 is not greater than 1663.0752003545613. Delta is -0.02645264199236408
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                 | 3546/5847 [00:34<00:22, 102.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1658.0006310126096 is not greater than 1658.0628923787963. Delta is -0.062261366186703526
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1653.332182411849 is not greater than 1655.445187095761. Delta is -2.1130046839118677
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.8117600285993 is not greater than 1653.2804703321465. Delta is -0.46871030354714094
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                 | 3566/5847 [00:34<00:20, 109.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.327389583566 is not greater than 1650.9325550922674. Delta is -0.6051655087014751
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  61%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                | 3581/5847 [00:34<00:20, 108.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  62%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                | 3596/5847 [00:34<00:20, 110.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1653.1678628685243 is not greater than 1653.7722176580787. Delta is -0.6043547895544634
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.3075009700162 is not greater than 1652.4880294224586. Delta is -0.1805284524423314
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  62%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                | 3611/5847 [00:34<00:19, 115.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1645.1086082956836 is not greater than 1645.9978834484646. Delta is -0.8892751527810105
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  62%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                | 3623/5847 [00:34<00:20, 109.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  62%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                               | 3636/5847 [00:35<00:20, 108.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1617.2489040576863 is not greater than 1617.2956931076528. Delta is -0.0467890499664918
Model is not converging.  Current: 1634.1722161318485 is not greater than 1634.7973263522745. Delta is -0.6251102204259951
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1634.5519894299905 is not greater than 1634.6265465591996. Delta is -0.07455712920909718
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.1466264891835 is not greater than 1635.2837856616432. Delta is -0.13715917245963283
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  63%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                               | 3656/5847 [00:35<00:18, 119.55it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1632.9269404279569 is not greater than 1632.9953431084484. Delta is -0.06840268049154474
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.3051945436068 is not greater than 1637.1534760076256. Delta is -1.8482814640187826
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                               | 3671/5847 [00:35<00:17, 121.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1638.9811670210213 is not greater than 1640.6168568163714. Delta is -1.6356897953501175
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.923949678939 is not greater than 1643.1605137320469. Delta is -3.2365640531079407
Model is not converging.  Current: 1636.9366595642202 is not greater than 1637.33600772103. Delta is -0.399348156809765
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.0207159285985 is not greater than 1641.0348825059602. Delta is -2.0141665773617206
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                              | 3691/5847 [00:35<00:16, 134.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1640.7695189351846 is not greater than 1640.7715045269413. Delta is -0.001985591756692884
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.684193710682 is not greater than 1634.3246868324513. Delta is -0.6404931217693957
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                              | 3706/5847 [00:35<00:16, 131.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1619.6573106709152 is not greater than 1619.6756419889498. Delta is -0.018331318034597643
Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.7976978195054 is not greater than 1640.219307241505. Delta is -0.42160942199961937
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1627.2801544626154 is not greater than 1627.3841760036164. Delta is -0.10402154100097505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                             | 3721/5847 [00:35<00:16, 129.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1656.1718452295447 is not greater than 1656.3252847788724. Delta is -0.1534395493276861
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                             | 3736/5847 [00:35<00:16, 125.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1643.2988017644916 is not greater than 1643.4979769649397. Delta is -0.19917520044805315
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1646.721864340967 is not greater than 1646.7824353948242. Delta is -0.060571053857302104
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1641.8156677020122 is not greater than 1642.1388210242947. Delta is -0.32315332228245097
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                             | 3751/5847 [00:35<00:16, 129.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1631.055797128877 is not greater than 1631.125101126242. Delta is -0.06930399736506843
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.0821696734079 is not greater than 1652.0901867846624. Delta is -0.008017111254503106
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  64%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                            | 3766/5847 [00:36<00:17, 118.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1636.0656637862032 is not greater than 1636.096169716656. Delta is -0.030505930452818575
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1655.5614323424522 is not greater than 1655.5623078369724. Delta is -0.0008754945201872033
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1657.9909753055053 is not greater than 1658.0498951160384. Delta is -0.058919810533097916
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  65%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                            | 3781/5847 [00:36<00:17, 118.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.015089754277 is not greater than 1664.5686520812767. Delta is -1.5535623269997814
Model is not converging.  Current: 1647.4487078972973 is not greater than 1647.6049699435646. Delta is -0.15626204626732942
Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.9185384837301 is not greater than 1623.9782803988155. Delta is -0.05974191508539661
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  65%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                            | 3796/5847 [00:36<00:16, 125.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1669.6116443193403 is not greater than 1669.624927245421. Delta is -0.01328292608081938
Model is not converging.  Current: 1653.6373116220038 is not greater than 1653.6870479421734. Delta is -0.04973632016958618
Model is not converging.  Current: 1642.2062422758927 is not greater than 1642.211436185349. Delta is -0.0051939094562385435
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  65%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                           | 3811/5847 [00:36<00:15, 131.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1671.290110260173 is not greater than 1671.4272752662735. Delta is -0.13716500610053117
Model is not converging.  Current: 1681.521746093643 is not greater than 1687.1408472964727. Delta is -5.619101202829597
Model is not converging.  Current: 1684.5853359930534 is not greater than 1684.594013111367. Delta is -0.008677118313698884
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  66%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                           | 3830/5847 [00:36<00:13, 147.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1677.6324302171988 is not greater than 1677.6777902830127. Delta is -0.045360065813838446
Model is not converging.  Current: 1691.763051795371 is not greater than 1693.8052945651648. Delta is -2.042242769793802
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1689.9127164957022 is not greater than 1691.8262726587632. Delta is -1.9135561630610027
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1661.047081826949 is not greater than 1661.1013533846362. Delta is -0.054271557687343375
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  66%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                           | 3846/5847 [00:36<00:14, 134.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1662.8263213318014 is not greater than 1663.0696728072382. Delta is -0.24335147543683888
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  66%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                          | 3861/5847 [00:36<00:14, 137.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.9098593595093 is not greater than 1664.0535836094057. Delta is -0.1437242498964224
Model is not converging.  Current: 1683.0768627376422 is not greater than 1683.1926647711102. Delta is -0.11580203346807139
Model is not converging.  Current: 1682.6826603356799 is not greater than 1683.538864001248. Delta is -0.8562036655680458
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  66%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                          | 3876/5847 [00:36<00:14, 133.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1665.0945911735373 is not greater than 1665.1890258817793. Delta is -0.0944347082420336
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1694.8945876976177 is not greater than 1695.6120600434979. Delta is -0.7174723458801964
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1687.6339486010072 is not greater than 1687.7368520571279. Delta is -0.10290345612065721
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  67%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                          | 3891/5847 [00:36<00:14, 132.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1700.5109208754668 is not greater than 1702.3943544143328. Delta is -1.8834335388660293
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1697.9760101587929 is not greater than 1698.0345822372833. Delta is -0.058572078490442436
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                         | 3906/5847 [00:37<00:14, 133.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1675.5316778738138 is not greater than 1675.5587618829222. Delta is -0.027084009108421014
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                         | 3921/5847 [00:37<00:14, 130.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1683.9314978506752 is not greater than 1684.174251285063. Delta is -0.24275343438785058
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1718.6167364652786 is not greater than 1720.0983653858095. Delta is -1.4816289205309658
Model is not converging.  Current: 1729.5130926122742 is not greater than 1732.6175363077023. Delta is -3.1044436954280172
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                         | 3941/5847 [00:37<00:13, 138.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1734.8358755264476 is not greater than 1734.9125401121362. Delta is -0.07666458568860435
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1734.5729932397198 is not greater than 1734.7371540251393. Delta is -0.16416078541942625
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1741.9429029975709 is not greater than 1742.4351697877585. Delta is -0.4922667901876139
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                        | 3956/5847 [00:37<00:13, 139.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1750.4242161662096 is not greater than 1750.952811507605. Delta is -0.5285953413954303
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1752.7120931818422 is not greater than 1753.1384976665252. Delta is -0.426404484682962
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1727.1537630988228 is not greater than 1727.2708065272277. Delta is -0.11704342840494064
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                        | 3971/5847 [00:37<00:13, 138.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1731.7110311010756 is not greater than 1731.7199878307913. Delta is -0.008956729715691836
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1749.9606141040508 is not greater than 1750.2797083855364. Delta is -0.31909428148560437
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1734.10192680354 is not greater than 1734.881324399468. Delta is -0.7793975959280033
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                        | 3986/5847 [00:37<00:13, 141.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1735.6544706859615 is not greater than 1736.0112614753048. Delta is -0.35679078934322206
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1714.0331732701136 is not greater than 1714.1446041337106. Delta is -0.11143086359697918
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1740.5120441329764 is not greater than 1740.9620654674163. Delta is -0.4500213344399526
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  68%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                       | 4001/5847 [00:37<00:13, 137.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1776.7572416083622 is not greater than 1776.8455671915515. Delta is -0.0883255831893166
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1787.2378905573582 is not greater than 1788.0472550178367. Delta is -0.8093644604784913
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1758.1344413869435 is not greater than 1758.6589246134558. Delta is -0.5244832265123023
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1761.2657539504314 is not greater than 1761.4823754136646. Delta is -0.21662146323319575
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  69%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                       | 4021/5847 [00:37<00:12, 147.40it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1818.7204180724061 is not greater than 1818.8103983239535. Delta is -0.08998025154733114
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1843.5568118971655 is not greater than 1846.4540840723294. Delta is -2.8972721751638346
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  69%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                       | 4041/5847 [00:37<00:12, 149.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1852.944850291495 is not greater than 1853.2612372268727. Delta is -0.31638693537775
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1852.2002695706396 is not greater than 1852.3551319446358. Delta is -0.15486237399613856
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  69%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                      | 4057/5847 [00:38<00:11, 152.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1808.882512393319 is not greater than 1808.894270494741. Delta is -0.011758101421946776
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1848.8701179435977 is not greater than 1851.9660674256418. Delta is -3.095949482044034
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  70%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                      | 4073/5847 [00:38<00:11, 150.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1847.5089517911517 is not greater than 1848.836112375013. Delta is -1.327160583861314
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1752.5425064509473 is not greater than 1753.0908161608481. Delta is -0.5483097099008774
Model is not converging.  Current: 1835.1904691658958 is not greater than 1835.3443090283126. Delta is -0.1538398624168167
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                     | 4091/5847 [00:38<00:12, 144.15it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1822.4690544693096 is not greater than 1822.4756238328312. Delta is -0.006569363521521154
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                     | 4106/5847 [00:38<00:13, 133.01it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                     | 4121/5847 [00:38<00:13, 129.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1725.7745635693368 is not greater than 1725.980657719682. Delta is -0.20609415034527956
Model is not converging.  Current: 1754.298406484124 is not greater than 1754.4303259471155. Delta is -0.13191946299161827
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                    | 4141/5847 [00:38<00:12, 140.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                    | 4156/5847 [00:38<00:12, 131.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1829.8858715654783 is not greater than 1829.896394941107. Delta is -0.010523375628736176
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1735.7208080050327 is not greater than 1735.726550159956. Delta is -0.005742154923382259
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                    | 4171/5847 [00:38<00:12, 131.27it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1768.9158613361185 is not greater than 1769.4822217589272. Delta is -0.566360422808657
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1823.5538825867811 is not greater than 1824.2964616087243. Delta is -0.7425790219431292
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1826.238624163969 is not greater than 1826.2552030595527. Delta is -0.016578895583734266
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  72%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                   | 4191/5847 [00:39<00:11, 140.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1825.02904992982 is not greater than 1827.5304849086301. Delta is -2.501434978810039
Model is not converging.  Current: 1836.7064986156117 is not greater than 1837.149753895251. Delta is -0.44325527963928835
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  72%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                   | 4206/5847 [00:39<00:11, 142.26it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  72%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                   | 4221/5847 [00:39<00:11, 142.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1766.860527496532 is not greater than 1767.06923164068. Delta is -0.20870414414798688
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  72%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                  | 4236/5847 [00:39<00:11, 141.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1757.8713129821037 is not greater than 1757.8974439549063. Delta is -0.026130972802548058
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  73%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                  | 4251/5847 [00:39<00:11, 136.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1785.7372266515695 is not greater than 1786.9206289408858. Delta is -1.183402289316291
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1732.0504270542963 is not greater than 1732.4455240067828. Delta is -0.39509695248648313
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1763.790361980388 is not greater than 1764.1972689000327. Delta is -0.406906919644598
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                  | 4271/5847 [00:39<00:11, 142.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1665.8514380448346 is not greater than 1666.0990837593213. Delta is -0.24764571448667994
Model is not converging.  Current: 1745.4785680111117 is not greater than 1746.333907589028. Delta is -0.8553395779163111
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                 | 4286/5847 [00:39<00:11, 140.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1678.183142314476 is not greater than 1678.8010457954779. Delta is -0.6179034810018038
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  74%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                 | 4301/5847 [00:39<00:11, 134.74it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  74%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                 | 4316/5847 [00:40<00:12, 126.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1683.8613348874342 is not greater than 1684.1683762706843. Delta is -0.30704138325017993
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  74%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                | 4331/5847 [00:40<00:11, 128.92it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1733.0017218526732 is not greater than 1734.073859562785. Delta is -1.0721377101117469
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  74%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                | 4346/5847 [00:40<00:11, 130.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1674.6795931606785 is not greater than 1674.8060205594002. Delta is -0.1264273987217166
Model is not converging.  Current: 1671.1707120931642 is not greater than 1671.4710385331753. Delta is -0.30032644001107656
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  75%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                | 4361/5847 [00:40<00:11, 127.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1638.773313789058 is not greater than 1638.8181430483576. Delta is -0.04482925929960402
Model is not converging.  Current: 1673.5882791742251 is not greater than 1673.643671073159. Delta is -0.055391898933976336
Model is not converging.  Current: 1664.897657386108 is not greater than 1664.97374771203. Delta is -0.07609032592199583
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  75%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                               | 4381/5847 [00:40<00:10, 136.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1699.3229367967547 is not greater than 1699.3498443521628. Delta is -0.026907555408115513
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1700.0110183770953 is not greater than 1700.175545211474. Delta is -0.16452683437864835
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  75%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                               | 4401/5847 [00:40<00:10, 138.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1703.3083248132868 is not greater than 1705.5438858514726. Delta is -2.2355610381857787
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.651128003865 is not greater than 1695.8756691081865. Delta is -0.22454110432136076
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                              | 4416/5847 [00:40<00:10, 141.08it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1701.8928946575193 is not greater than 1703.4052404056774. Delta is -1.5123457481581681
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1689.8051363216077 is not greater than 1690.670050803969. Delta is -0.8649144823612005
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                              | 4436/5847 [00:40<00:09, 143.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1645.8647838084114 is not greater than 1646.6907299504517. Delta is -0.8259461420402658
Model is not converging.  Current: 1632.7053360340065 is not greater than 1632.9642064683292. Delta is -0.2588704343227164
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                              | 4451/5847 [00:40<00:09, 143.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1636.6925958464356 is not greater than 1636.9878887991647. Delta is -0.2952929527291417
Model is not converging.  Current: 1664.3597942722297 is not greater than 1664.6016736315514. Delta is -0.24187935932172877
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1668.5093092085012 is not greater than 1669.1006184086739. Delta is -0.5913092001726454
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1670.1481493393342 is not greater than 1671.8335098169289. Delta is -1.6853604775947133
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  76%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                             | 4471/5847 [00:41<00:09, 151.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1600.8374663989323 is not greater than 1601.0088350526719. Delta is -0.17136865373959154
Model is not converging.  Current: 1666.1362510871625 is not greater than 1669.0929671634783. Delta is -2.9567160763158427
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  77%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                             | 4487/5847 [00:41<00:09, 147.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.703291909598 is not greater than 1624.0558067572254. Delta is -0.3525148476273898
Model is not converging.  Current: 1659.4888532252908 is not greater than 1660.0346017086113. Delta is -0.5457484833204944
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1660.1351036318765 is not greater than 1660.3489224044981. Delta is -0.21381877262160742
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                             | 4506/5847 [00:41<00:08, 150.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1622.477989047212 is not greater than 1622.720841751439. Delta is -0.24285270422683425
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.9385093935928 is not greater than 1600.205987518474. Delta is -0.26747812488133604
Model is not converging.  Current: 1659.5183884051787 is not greater than 1660.077950970906. Delta is -0.5595625657272194
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                            | 4526/5847 [00:41<00:08, 155.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1619.4778179140596 is not greater than 1619.8839403825218. Delta is -0.40612246846217204
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.9967193139864 is not greater than 1653.527685044293. Delta is -0.5309657303066615
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1621.784675490901 is not greater than 1621.8254086435668. Delta is -0.040733152665779926
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  78%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                            | 4542/5847 [00:41<00:08, 154.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1621.0872547860629 is not greater than 1621.2927791617687. Delta is -0.20552437570586335
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1662.570255738233 is not greater than 1663.1371479239156. Delta is -0.5668921856824909
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1634.7147443505953 is not greater than 1635.1507665581125. Delta is -0.436022207517226
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1616.288032193935 is not greater than 1616.506599748607. Delta is -0.21856755467206312
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  78%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                           | 4561/5847 [00:41<00:08, 147.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  78%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                           | 4576/5847 [00:41<00:09, 137.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1607.0789839224299 is not greater than 1607.4350687106264. Delta is -0.3560847881965401
Model is not converging.  Current: 1629.7877863746926 is not greater than 1629.9906420586897. Delta is -0.2028556839970861
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1629.92828806832 is not greater than 1630.1417883882639. Delta is -0.21350031994393248
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  79%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                           | 4591/5847 [00:41<00:09, 127.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.2007687522196 is not greater than 1634.3199005975757. Delta is -1.1191318453561507

🛑 Panic mode ACTIVÉ le 2020-03-16 00:00:00

🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  79%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                          | 4604/5847 [00:42<00:10, 122.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1612.9790459297617 is not greater than 1613.0975230307877. Delta is -0.11847710102597375
Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.0671491217722 is not greater than 1599.1462529773326. Delta is -0.07910385556033361
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  79%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                          | 4617/5847 [00:42<00:11, 104.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.1730095817293 is not greater than 1540.2929969626296. Delta is -0.11998738090028382
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  79%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                          | 4631/5847 [00:42<00:11, 102.09it/s]

✅ Panic mode DÉSACTIVÉ le 2020-04-29 00:00:00

Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.2711840334866 is not greater than 1555.4565078682815. Delta is -0.1853238347948718
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  79%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                          | 4642/5847 [00:42<00:12, 97.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1554.7607953071783 is not greater than 1554.795009897185. Delta is -0.034214590006740764
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                          | 4652/5847 [00:42<00:12, 96.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1547.363833435419 is not greater than 1547.5964909250656. Delta is -0.23265748964649902
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.8100139205676 is not greater than 1517.9980673338225. Delta is -0.1880534132549201
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.0351152094806 is not greater than 1541.053731636447. Delta is -0.018616426966445943
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                         | 4666/5847 [00:42<00:12, 93.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.176731406102 is not greater than 1542.20794944578. Delta is -0.0312180396781514
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.4714764829876 is not greater than 1517.6986867937248. Delta is -0.22721031073729137
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.8752582343357 is not greater than 1542.8759910442832. Delta is -0.0007328099475216732
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                         | 4681/5847 [00:42<00:12, 93.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.1890031890832 is not greater than 1499.752002277058. Delta is -0.5629990879747311
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.0036280010622 is not greater than 1533.4227233690438. Delta is -0.4190953679815266
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.5125525320557 is not greater than 1549.6055823189554. Delta is -0.09302978689970587
Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.213714184499 is not greater than 1514.4712215563065. Delta is -0.2575073718076055
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                        | 4701/5847 [00:43<00:10, 109.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  81%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                        | 4713/5847 [00:43<00:10, 103.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.4563767063855 is not greater than 1493.536183849114. Delta is -0.07980714272844125
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                        | 4724/5847 [00:43<00:12, 87.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.3946463386221 is not greater than 1516.5485349060336. Delta is -0.15388856741151358
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.1252759303416 is not greater than 1519.5526005948952. Delta is -0.4273246645536801
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.0825071498882 is not greater than 1524.0904222476015. Delta is -0.007915097713294017
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                        | 4736/5847 [00:43<00:12, 87.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.0986974439415 is not greater than 1477.280357691445. Delta is -0.18166024750348697
Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.3140022350385 is not greater than 1494.3568278951332. Delta is -0.04282566009464972
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  81%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                       | 4751/5847 [00:43<00:11, 98.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.6986443447497 is not greater than 1524.7238261764815. Delta is -0.025181831731742932
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  81%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                       | 4762/5847 [00:43<00:11, 93.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.4163124277266 is not greater than 1549.5763680210798. Delta is -0.16005559335326325
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  82%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                       | 4776/5847 [00:43<00:10, 98.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.7377621613184 is not greater than 1555.8869882296246. Delta is -0.14922606830623408
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  82%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                      | 4787/5847 [00:44<00:10, 100.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.8934446506894 is not greater than 1558.0351120715302. Delta is -0.14166742084080397
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1558.9519036873016 is not greater than 1560.5385881496702. Delta is -1.5866844623685665
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.3538162803159 is not greater than 1557.4484588750684. Delta is -0.09464259475248582
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                      | 4801/5847 [00:44<00:10, 97.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1545.9504687158199 is not greater than 1546.727869212001. Delta is -0.7774004961811443
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                      | 4811/5847 [00:44<00:10, 96.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.0554393151738 is not greater than 1551.4002407347082. Delta is -0.3448014195344058
Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.0487686068957 is not greater than 1544.0698626191518. Delta is -0.021094012256071437
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                      | 4821/5847 [00:44<00:11, 90.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.1526895148106 is not greater than 1544.2393644888834. Delta is -0.08667497407282099
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.9092461865514 is not greater than 1539.9845645270932. Delta is -0.07531834054179853
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  83%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                      | 4831/5847 [00:44<00:12, 82.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.7902191646401 is not greater than 1540.914128696097. Delta is -0.12390953145677486
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                     | 4841/5847 [00:44<00:12, 83.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.2062013888599 is not greater than 1520.2805412329824. Delta is -0.07433984412250538
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.9369047334374 is not greater than 1539.9742553125568. Delta is -0.0373505791194475
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.6160013250728 is not greater than 1532.5354523558035. Delta is -0.91945103073067
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                     | 4856/5847 [00:44<00:10, 97.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.482743393563 is not greater than 1538.4884194836682. Delta is -0.0056760901052257395
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                     | 4866/5847 [00:44<00:12, 79.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.8121682314506 is not greater than 1536.5715425404787. Delta is -0.7593743090280896
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.4652300895264 is not greater than 1517.5513604694393. Delta is -0.08613037991290184
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.9405163426943 is not greater than 1525.4869795772045. Delta is -0.5464632345101563
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.9025592791504 is not greater than 1541.0387394477566. Delta is -0.1361801686061881
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                    | 4886/5847 [00:45<00:09, 99.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.288396598925 is not greater than 1541.4066934830507. Delta is -0.11829688412581163
Model is not converging.  Current: 1521.9443825296896 is not greater than 1522.1311089437054. Delta is -0.18672641401576584
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  84%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                    | 4901/5847 [00:45<00:08, 105.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.7506139877728 is not greater than 1540.79540376314. Delta is -0.04478977536723505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.9337008053246 is not greater than 1539.9990105829206. Delta is -0.065309777595985
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.2500769839432 is not greater than 1529.4378962715095. Delta is -0.18781928756629895
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  84%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                    | 4916/5847 [00:45<00:08, 112.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.474432887114 is not greater than 1536.5117040796324. Delta is -0.03727119251834665
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.4058017135178 is not greater than 1528.5220087511348. Delta is -0.1162070376169595
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                   | 4930/5847 [00:45<00:07, 118.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1543.3083294716469 is not greater than 1543.3965046403293. Delta is -0.08817516868248276
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  85%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                   | 4946/5847 [00:45<00:08, 106.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.2621967180198 is not greater than 1552.7777416166211. Delta is -0.5155448986013198
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.3328409176936 is not greater than 1557.4950174456587. Delta is -0.16217652796512994
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.4695075850173 is not greater than 1556.9511852259502. Delta is -0.48167764093295773
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  85%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                   | 4961/5847 [00:45<00:08, 110.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.9122321796153 is not greater than 1553.2922719738253. Delta is -0.3800397942100062
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.0917312071838 is not greater than 1538.2680275315597. Delta is -0.1762963243759259
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.8014196436518 is not greater than 1548.815958827525. Delta is -0.01453918387323938
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  85%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                  | 4980/5847 [00:45<00:06, 129.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.703746884755 is not greater than 1557.8901701732655. Delta is -0.1864232885104684
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  85%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                  | 4994/5847 [00:46<00:08, 103.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.4709400582474 is not greater than 1550.7874690321776. Delta is -0.31652897393018975
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.5690811244394 is not greater than 1552.7380204135338. Delta is -0.16893928909439637
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.8006860707487 is not greater than 1555.8198585388402. Delta is -0.019172468091483097
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  86%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                  | 5006/5847 [00:46<00:10, 79.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1554.1269008013196 is not greater than 1554.244304967938. Delta is -0.11740416661837116
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.2721097490266 is not greater than 1548.8029756731275. Delta is -0.5308659241009082
Model is not converging.  Current: 1543.1732340566014 is not greater than 1543.4513420152978. Delta is -0.2781079586964097
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                  | 5021/5847 [00:46<00:09, 86.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.1074858767847 is not greater than 1537.185387551614. Delta is -0.07790167482926336
Model is not converging.  Current: 1532.8546125645448 is not greater than 1533.1427088033367. Delta is -0.2880962387919226
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                 | 5033/5847 [00:46<00:08, 92.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1532.5792106769202 is not greater than 1532.6146973062316. Delta is -0.035486629311435536
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.1200379583227 is not greater than 1531.2244470103396. Delta is -0.10440905201699024
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.4027200368573 is not greater than 1524.1404872203937. Delta is -0.7377671835363344
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                 | 5046/5847 [00:46<00:08, 96.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.8781789051775 is not greater than 1494.891067532653. Delta is -0.012888627475604153
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.8101255200431 is not greater than 1523.9128425800639. Delta is -0.10271706002072278
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.6468369064164 is not greater than 1519.7581078700644. Delta is -0.11127096364793942
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  87%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                 | 5061/5847 [00:46<00:07, 108.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.2829820525021 is not greater than 1520.4417107772542. Delta is -0.15872872475210897
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.3721909969602 is not greater than 1496.9403677153584. Delta is -0.5681767183982629
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  87%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                | 5076/5847 [00:46<00:07, 107.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.5667492403943 is not greater than 1523.6626284628398. Delta is -0.09587922244554647
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.2493771640898 is not greater than 1542.2520662460304. Delta is -0.0026890819406162336
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  87%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                | 5088/5847 [00:47<00:07, 107.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  87%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                | 5100/5847 [00:47<00:07, 103.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.1319838368631 is not greater than 1550.575464896262. Delta is -0.4434810593988914
Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.9738976154058 is not greater than 1560.0238151270712. Delta is -0.049917511665398706
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1572.5905674691355 is not greater than 1572.5973259161. Delta is -0.006758446964568066
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  87%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                | 5111/5847 [00:47<00:07, 92.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏               | 5121/5847 [00:47<00:08, 83.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1563.5832012602502 is not greater than 1564.6887029414158. Delta is -1.105501681165606
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1561.3518539463223 is not greater than 1561.8690138958166. Delta is -0.5171599494942711
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌               | 5136/5847 [00:47<00:07, 94.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.5225951609539 is not greater than 1558.7732505341842. Delta is -1.2506553732303018
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.4598820150145 is not greater than 1554.134568385966. Delta is -0.6746863709515765
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1545.6329995833476 is not greater than 1546.0117097515647. Delta is -0.37871016821713965
Model is not converging.  Current: 1562.7780547121752 is not greater than 1564.7953697924374. Delta is -2.0173150802622786
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████               | 5156/5847 [00:47<00:05, 116.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.534483780919 is not greater than 1557.563348116883. Delta is -0.028864335964044585
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.902266250452 is not greater than 1535.920274969193. Delta is -0.01800871874115728
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍              | 5171/5847 [00:47<00:05, 119.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.5923741320232 is not greater than 1529.7245117491473. Delta is -0.13213761712404448
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.85481265206 is not greater than 1539.8727793305818. Delta is -0.017966678521815993
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  89%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊              | 5186/5847 [00:47<00:05, 118.82it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  89%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████              | 5199/5847 [00:48<00:05, 114.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1527.1919135603682 is not greater than 1527.204074090296. Delta is -0.012160529927768948
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.0459549154407 is not greater than 1538.7119876803258. Delta is -1.6660327648851307
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  89%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎             | 5211/5847 [00:48<00:06, 102.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1532.5039117714812 is not greater than 1532.5459855661552. Delta is -0.04207379467402461
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.0092168530932 is not greater than 1520.0724645879175. Delta is -0.06324773482424462
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  89%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌             | 5226/5847 [00:48<00:06, 102.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1508.0288966768805 is not greater than 1508.8448067182817. Delta is -0.8159100414011391
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.0612392086637 is not greater than 1516.266501780217. Delta is -0.20526257155324856
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  90%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊             | 5237/5847 [00:48<00:05, 103.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1505.7187949347367 is not greater than 1505.807911240758. Delta is -0.08911630602119658
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  90%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉             | 5248/5847 [00:48<00:06, 97.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.5972883567642 is not greater than 1517.1803816248862. Delta is -0.5830932681219565
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.3640857962262 is not greater than 1489.3666585791407. Delta is -0.0025727829145125725
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1508.949962022501 is not greater than 1509.1335945676587. Delta is -0.18363254515770677
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎            | 5261/5847 [00:48<00:06, 97.08it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.2591501340135 is not greater than 1501.2997305553351. Delta is -0.040580421321692484
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍            | 5271/5847 [00:48<00:06, 91.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.9050410918721 is not greater than 1499.9182763366762. Delta is -0.013235244804036483
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋            | 5281/5847 [00:48<00:06, 92.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.0866029848405 is not greater than 1499.9903120800557. Delta is -0.903709095215163
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.4302773478346 is not greater than 1488.648521040333. Delta is -0.21824369249839037
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.240963560603 is not greater than 1492.8891826708418. Delta is -0.6482191102388697
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.5226751182058 is not greater than 1493.8537187821914. Delta is -0.3310436639856107
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  91%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏           | 5301/5847 [00:49<00:04, 112.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.7993647694018 is not greater than 1497.0950661808133. Delta is -0.29570141141152817
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.3021735627067 is not greater than 1489.3602882732207. Delta is -0.05811471051401895
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.0711964937739 is not greater than 1491.1264116863929. Delta is -0.05521519261901631
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  91%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌           | 5316/5847 [00:49<00:04, 112.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.8667856732473 is not greater than 1495.9097176803843. Delta is -1.0429320071370967
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.92182840803 is not greater than 1488.0001988786094. Delta is -0.07837047057932978
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.6470387626557 is not greater than 1495.6557478703046. Delta is -0.008709107648883219
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  91%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉           | 5331/5847 [00:49<00:04, 117.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1505.458123775918 is not greater than 1505.781147071699. Delta is -0.3230232957810131
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.6497611841191 is not greater than 1491.3168488933786. Delta is -0.6670877092594765
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.3364997544718 is not greater than 1485.3617668448858. Delta is -0.025267090413990445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  91%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎          | 5350/5847 [00:49<00:03, 136.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.6508507118851 is not greater than 1484.6721349485094. Delta is -0.021284236624296682
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.7679643262184 is not greater than 1483.8861286589465. Delta is -0.1181643327281563
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  92%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋          | 5366/5847 [00:49<00:03, 138.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1486.3806179543174 is not greater than 1486.4050370572224. Delta is -0.02441910290508531
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.8159286629934 is not greater than 1491.9689415060625. Delta is -0.15301284306906382
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.0966118473093 is not greater than 1493.4085066229445. Delta is -0.31189477563520995
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  92%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉          | 5381/5847 [00:49<00:03, 141.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.1513462778905 is not greater than 1477.19866827537. Delta is -0.04732199747945742
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.9485570996926 is not greater than 1491.313483829863. Delta is -0.3649267301702821
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.7568189346782 is not greater than 1488.8368865220828. Delta is -0.08006758740452824
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.2015533526394 is not greater than 1485.1445410225729. Delta is -0.9429876699334727
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  92%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍         | 5401/5847 [00:49<00:02, 149.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.3631503817526 is not greater than 1483.3734171506972. Delta is -0.010266768944575233
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.9734105382645 is not greater than 1490.0055974554386. Delta is -0.032186917174158225
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  93%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋         | 5416/5847 [00:49<00:02, 145.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.3707102591034 is not greater than 1495.4789426975558. Delta is -0.10823243845243269
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1486.2002034797367 is not greater than 1486.548672402784. Delta is -0.3484689230472213
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.4879889244319 is not greater than 1483.6843363670016. Delta is -0.19634744256973136
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.1394290134035 is not greater than 1494.36526219081. Delta is -0.22583317740645725
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  93%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏        | 5436/5847 [00:50<00:02, 152.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.0752123001776 is not greater than 1485.258229648484. Delta is -0.18301734830652094
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.6888389496808 is not greater than 1491.7521062687042. Delta is -0.06326731902345273
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.2485050692858 is not greater than 1488.2851413171718. Delta is -0.03663624788600828
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  93%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍        | 5452/5847 [00:50<00:02, 147.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.2267595906658 is not greater than 1489.5516038440085. Delta is -0.3248442533426896
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1482.062097236833 is not greater than 1482.083413159961. Delta is -0.021315923127986025
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  94%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊        | 5467/5847 [00:50<00:02, 141.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.914023361938 is not greater than 1489.0064937621657. Delta is -0.09247040022773945
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.9318858376257 is not greater than 1488.388132742426. Delta is -0.4562469048003095
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  94%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏       | 5482/5847 [00:50<00:02, 139.52it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.6134067624212 is not greater than 1487.7639747033006. Delta is -0.1505679408794549
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1486.7132772721106 is not greater than 1486.947144037026. Delta is -0.23386676491531944
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  94%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍       | 5496/5847 [00:50<00:02, 139.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1480.3458726394276 is not greater than 1480.6252462014477. Delta is -0.27937356202005503
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.5221472654414 is not greater than 1483.7158736822685. Delta is -0.1937264168270758
Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.3988790088604 is not greater than 1477.439622408021. Delta is -0.04074339916064673
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  94%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊       | 5511/5847 [00:50<00:02, 140.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.421549860626 is not greater than 1493.640651376852. Delta is -0.2191015162259191
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.0935019281521 is not greater than 1493.3806667066199. Delta is -0.2871647784677407
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  95%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████       | 5526/5847 [00:50<00:02, 133.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.2826987939877 is not greater than 1489.2961360159927. Delta is -0.01343722200499542
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.6597848221727 is not greater than 1485.798399908763. Delta is -0.1386150865903346
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.4038217158716 is not greater than 1494.4860822979504. Delta is -0.0822605820787885
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  95%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌      | 5546/5847 [00:50<00:02, 140.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.430936270503 is not greater than 1501.4653336172992. Delta is -0.03439734679614048
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1502.6697231741507 is not greater than 1502.686789335528. Delta is -0.017066161377215394
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  95%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊      | 5561/5847 [00:50<00:02, 142.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1506.4413765253946 is not greater than 1507.5172361867446. Delta is -1.075859661350023
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1503.5320838257846 is not greater than 1504.6594201025475. Delta is -1.1273362767628896
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1509.015964893034 is not greater than 1509.0255382269775. Delta is -0.009573333943535545
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  95%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎     | 5581/5847 [00:51<00:01, 139.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.4064201831002 is not greater than 1514.665881229836. Delta is -0.2594610467358507
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.981123773474 is not greater than 1532.1670816192297. Delta is -0.18595784575563812
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1530.7971896273643 is not greater than 1531.0724571924147. Delta is -0.27526756505039884
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.4727177257557 is not greater than 1531.8161128094619. Delta is -0.3433950837061275
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  96%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋     | 5601/5847 [00:51<00:01, 149.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.3740836102309 is not greater than 1533.7428688149255. Delta is -0.36878520469463183
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  96%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████     | 5616/5847 [00:51<00:01, 146.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.069037962604 is not greater than 1549.5342530504208. Delta is -1.4652150878168868
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.6882082928053 is not greater than 1533.785543872034. Delta is -0.09733557922868386
Model is not converging.  Current: 1567.84925248997 is not greater than 1569.0411111773142. Delta is -1.1918586873441654
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  96%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍    | 5636/5847 [00:51<00:01, 159.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1571.7387052152408 is not greater than 1571.8581970527134. Delta is -0.11949183747265124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1582.145109931944 is not greater than 1582.227293253071. Delta is -0.08218332112687676
Model is not converging.  Current: 1568.7431160453368 is not greater than 1568.941446307837. Delta is -0.19833026250012153
Model is not converging.  Current: 1588.9476990183155 is not greater than 1589.1128092450151. Delta is -0.16511022669965314
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  97%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉    | 5656/5847 [00:51<00:01, 161.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1602.7523331549328 is not greater than 1603.0353673115017. Delta is -0.2830341565688741
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1604.5765132777694 is not greater than 1604.6547416047704. Delta is -0.07822832700094295
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1595.926707929232 is not greater than 1596.2205419007269. Delta is -0.2938339714949052
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  97%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎   | 5673/5847 [00:51<00:01, 159.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1597.1764117470534 is not greater than 1597.610800915918. Delta is -0.43438916886452716
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1611.6244533295599 is not greater than 1612.3718173066957. Delta is -0.7473639771358194
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1578.4030137466284 is not greater than 1578.558739348875. Delta is -0.15572560224654808
Model is not converging.  Current: 1602.5000228394972 is not greater than 1603.101226815127. Delta is -0.6012039756296872
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  97%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋   | 5691/5847 [00:51<00:00, 159.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1592.3128943681897 is not greater than 1592.9054635443783. Delta is -0.5925691761885901
Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.697423134815 is not greater than 1583.8154736017916. Delta is -0.11805046697668331
Model is not converging.  Current: 1610.629119347124 is not greater than 1611.8655954435903. Delta is -1.2364760964662764
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  98%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████   | 5709/5847 [00:51<00:00, 165.08it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1617.9938646874102 is not greater than 1618.084541288806. Delta is -0.09067660139567124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.153296551757 is not greater than 1623.5649490633039. Delta is -0.4116525115468903
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1622.0082596406694 is not greater than 1622.0459851924281. Delta is -0.03772555175874004
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  98%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍  | 5726/5847 [00:51<00:00, 153.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1641.4099724428636 is not greater than 1641.6108529325354. Delta is -0.20088048967181749
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.9854586334604 is not greater than 1651.4928651667578. Delta is -0.5074065332973987
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1657.317659363346 is not greater than 1657.6747373678882. Delta is -0.35707800454224525
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1648.9464895137432 is not greater than 1649.0134389876146. Delta is -0.06694947387131833
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  98%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊  | 5746/5847 [00:52<00:00, 150.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  99%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏ | 5762/5847 [00:52<00:00, 144.74it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1690.2138126733205 is not greater than 1690.2710640506655. Delta is -0.05725137734498276
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1687.8859977986033 is not greater than 1687.9529453591858. Delta is -0.06694756058254825
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  99%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌ | 5781/5847 [00:52<00:00, 146.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  99%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉ | 5796/5847 [00:52<00:00, 143.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode:  99%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎| 5816/5847 [00:52<00:00, 148.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode: 100%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋| 5831/5847 [00:52<00:00, 144.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1694.2400232020177 is not greater than 1694.3184337157345. Delta is -0.07841051371678986
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🚨 HMM 4 régimes + Real Panic Mode: 100%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████| 5847/5847 [00:52<00:00, 110.66it/s]

📊 Résultats finaux :
Rendement annualisé : 4.20%
Volatilité annualisée : 13.84%

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
import yfinance as yf

# 📥 Données
data = yf.download('^GSPC', start='2000-01-01', end='2025-04-01')
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data.dropna(inplace=True)
returns = data['Log_Returns'].values.reshape(-1, 1)

# 🔁 Comparaison pour différents nombres d'états
log_likelihoods = []
aics = []
bics = []
K_range = range(1, 6)
n_obs = len(returns)

for k in K_range:
    try:
        model = GaussianHMM(n_components=k, covariance_type='full', n_iter=1000, random_state=42)
        model.fit(returns)
        log_likelihood = model.score(returns)

        # ⚙️ Nombre de paramètres :
        # (k-1) pour startprob, k(k-1) pour transmat, k pour variances, k pour moyennes
        n_params = (k - 1) + (k * (k - 1)) + k + k

        aic = -2 * log_likelihood + 2 * n_params
        bic = -2 * log_likelihood + n_params * np.log(n_obs)

        log_likelihoods.append(log_likelihood)
        aics.append(aic)
        bics.append(bic)

    except Exception as e:
        print(f"Erreur pour {k} états : {e}")
        log_likelihoods.append(np.nan)
        aics.append(np.nan)
        bics.append(np.nan)

# 📈 Graphe comparatif
# 📊 Replot en 2 graphes pour meilleure lisibilité
fig, ax = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(10, 10), sharex=True)

# Graph 1 : log-vraisemblance
ax[0].plot(K_range, log_likelihoods, marker='o', color='blue')
ax[0].set_title("Log-vraisemblance selon le nombre d'états")
ax[0].set_ylabel("Log-likelihood")
ax[0].grid(True)

# Graph 2 : AIC / BIC
ax[1].plot(K_range, aics, marker='s', label='AIC', color='orange')
ax[1].plot(K_range, bics, marker='^', label='BIC', color='green')
ax[1].set_title("AIC et BIC selon le nombre d'états")
ax[1].set_xlabel("Nombre d'états")
ax[1].set_ylabel("Score")
ax[1].legend()
ax[1].grid(True)

plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# ✅ Meilleur modèle selon BIC
best_k = K_range[np.nanargmin(bics)]
print(f"\n✅ Nombre optimal d'états selon le BIC : {best_k}")

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
Model is not converging.  Current: 20518.16033456869 is not greater than 20518.193354419054. Delta is -0.03301985036523547
Model is not converging.  Current: 20258.857946280088 is not greater than 20258.871339733112. Delta is -0.013393453024036717

✅ Nombre optimal d'états selon le BIC : 4

# Paramètres à tester
window_sizes = [250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250]
sharpe_scores = []

for rw in tqdm(window_sizes, desc="🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre"):

    model = None
    positions = []
    returns_strategy = []
    last_transmat = None
    last_state = None

    for t in range(rw, len(returns) - 1):
        window_returns = returns[t - rw:t]

        # Réestimation tous les 20 jours
        if (t - rw) % 20 == 0:
            try:
                model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=100)
                model.fit(window_returns)
                viterbi = model.predict(window_returns)
                vols = [np.var(window_returns[viterbi == i]) for i in range(3)]
                order = np.argsort(vols)
                last_transmat = model.transmat_[order][:, order]
                last_state = order.tolist().index(viterbi[-1])
            except:
                continue

        if model is None or last_transmat is None:
            continue

        # Prédiction du régime de demain
        p_next = last_transmat[last_state]
        pos = p_next[0]*1 + p_next[1]*0 + p_next[2]*(-1)
        last_state = np.argmax(p_next)

        r_tomorrow = data['Log_Returns'].iloc[t + 1]
        returns_strategy.append(pos * r_tomorrow)
        positions.append(pos)

    # Calcul du Sharpe
    strat = pd.Series(returns_strategy)
    sharpe = strat.mean() * 252 / (strat.std() * np.sqrt(252))
    sharpe_scores.append(sharpe)

# 🔍 Résultats
df_opt = pd.DataFrame({'Rolling_Window': window_sizes, 'Sharpe': sharpe_scores})

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(df_opt['Rolling_Window'], df_opt['Sharpe'], marker='o')
plt.title("Sharpe ratio en fonction de la taille de la fenêtre")
plt.xlabel("Taille de la rolling window (jours)")
plt.ylabel("Sharpe ratio annualisé")
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

best_rw = df_opt.loc[df_opt['Sharpe'].idxmax(), 'Rolling_Window']
print(f"🏆 Meilleure taille de rolling window : {int(best_rw)} jours")

🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre:   0%|                      | 0/5 [00:00<?, ?it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 709.2492717088172 is not greater than 709.3104839499724. Delta is -0.06121224115520363
Model is not converging.  Current: 715.0031243892861 is not greater than 715.1053951762071. Delta is -0.10227078692105351
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 710.2997775650008 is not greater than 710.3106510212154. Delta is -0.010873456214653743
Model is not converging.  Current: 715.948413853711 is not greater than 716.156691247261. Delta is -0.20827739355001995
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 721.4377110500759 is not greater than 721.760204255468. Delta is -0.3224932053921066
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 721.222047527686 is not greater than 721.5012580117931. Delta is -0.279210484107125
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 720.5752527377964 is not greater than 720.6550807115725. Delta is -0.07982797377610495
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 708.6821658663822 is not greater than 708.6910133603095. Delta is -0.00884749392730555
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 732.4536267364954 is not greater than 732.8146884206469. Delta is -0.3610616841515366
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 732.3980572123454 is not greater than 732.4941751179141. Delta is -0.09611790556868982
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 735.3381353536743 is not greater than 735.3398247493448. Delta is -0.0016893956704961965
Model is not converging.  Current: 750.9911316109875 is not greater than 751.0380607014357. Delta is -0.04692909044820226
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 735.9536004513373 is not greater than 736.0325021229386. Delta is -0.07890167160132933
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 700.9660684849994 is not greater than 701.0300088187563. Delta is -0.06394033375693198
Model is not converging.  Current: 693.3145189777854 is not greater than 693.3157584748952. Delta is -0.0012394971098501628
Model is not converging.  Current: 679.172261487011 is not greater than 679.2702298916352. Delta is -0.09796840462411183
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 684.852372850499 is not greater than 684.863779986184. Delta is -0.01140713568497631
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 666.5528823209709 is not greater than 666.5905240557329. Delta is -0.03764173476201904
Model is not converging.  Current: 674.4662189443745 is not greater than 675.1795725045381. Delta is -0.7133535601635685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 655.9679888627788 is not greater than 655.9718569733944. Delta is -0.0038681106155991074
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 662.9121980822536 is not greater than 662.9260628449447. Delta is -0.013864762691127908
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 707.1490381612089 is not greater than 707.1804684417264. Delta is -0.03143028051749752
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 813.249271830684 is not greater than 813.6483460212106. Delta is -0.39907419052656223
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 811.4934799123788 is not greater than 811.4949120997073. Delta is -0.0014321873285325637
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 886.0940673547431 is not greater than 886.2864500148324. Delta is -0.192382660089379
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 888.755361247133 is not greater than 888.9907845404908. Delta is -0.23542329335782597
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 819.6349273791817 is not greater than 819.670466789629. Delta is -0.03553941044731346
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 833.5819046777514 is not greater than 833.9097485296409. Delta is -0.3278438518894973
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 821.7826814869892 is not greater than 821.9745156999394. Delta is -0.19183421295019798
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 772.0234447816251 is not greater than 772.0673892059737. Delta is -0.04394442434852408
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 713.1641811066809 is not greater than 713.4484463411627. Delta is -0.28426523448183616
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 605.9382910531266 is not greater than 606.0985765839782. Delta is -0.1602855308516382
Model is not converging.  Current: 583.5333495901485 is not greater than 583.5345519885052. Delta is -0.0012023983566677998
Model is not converging.  Current: 574.3908591348128 is not greater than 574.492931152001. Delta is -0.10207201718822034
Model is not converging.  Current: 567.6370614988729 is not greater than 567.7311457731867. Delta is -0.09408427431378641
Model is not converging.  Current: 563.7159810133206 is not greater than 563.766928572306. Delta is -0.050947558985399155
Model is not converging.  Current: 564.996244894236 is not greater than 565.269094946323. Delta is -0.27285005208693747
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 676.6348035844259 is not greater than 676.7007753813674. Delta is -0.06597179694153965
Model is not converging.  Current: 704.2539275065341 is not greater than 704.3085145642192. Delta is -0.05458705768512573
Model is not converging.  Current: 741.825487236502 is not greater than 741.8436017273966. Delta is -0.01811449089461803
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 751.0397905931497 is not greater than 751.1632324330819. Delta is -0.12344183993218394
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 758.7664585503705 is not greater than 758.8746047560985. Delta is -0.1081462057279623
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 773.8639388557721 is not greater than 773.9607160181589. Delta is -0.09677716238684297
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 768.8764026572678 is not greater than 768.9908285479956. Delta is -0.11442589072782994
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 765.0829193310702 is not greater than 765.6841739081531. Delta is -0.601254577082841
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 720.6160809857175 is not greater than 721.0936073839855. Delta is -0.47752639826796894
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 719.9173232211075 is not greater than 719.9326445990814. Delta is -0.01532137797391897
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 709.9832768446425 is not greater than 710.0161266724198. Delta is -0.03284982777722689
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 747.5408002224775 is not greater than 747.5408661877021. Delta is -6.59652246213227e-05
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 805.6334109062733 is not greater than 805.9318222459007. Delta is -0.2984113396273642
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 812.5519756743552 is not greater than 813.041535079516. Delta is -0.4895594051608896
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 777.7374750857255 is not greater than 777.7398887775108. Delta is -0.0024136917853638806
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 780.2284928216496 is not greater than 780.2291258342316. Delta is -0.0006330125819431487
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 775.209111016896 is not greater than 775.9037911421223. Delta is -0.6946801252262276
Model is not converging.  Current: 772.4359347271733 is not greater than 772.5410146047545. Delta is -0.10507987758126092
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 818.6010257536029 is not greater than 818.6196480697197. Delta is -0.018622316116761795
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 883.7333922693737 is not greater than 884.5033719880088. Delta is -0.7699797186351134
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 891.9463872364031 is not greater than 891.950922188763. Delta is -0.0045349523599043096
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 896.5785209233782 is not greater than 897.0093679266402. Delta is -0.430847003261988
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 899.7525928760808 is not greater than 900.1392584411238. Delta is -0.3866655650430175
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 903.1658407430396 is not greater than 903.588877124228. Delta is -0.4230363811884672
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 924.451770861701 is not greater than 924.7220173236632. Delta is -0.2702464619621878
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 839.8266595107517 is not greater than 840.6673520772412. Delta is -0.8406925664894516
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 829.8005853456876 is not greater than 830.2722795540377. Delta is -0.4716942083500726
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 829.389853202724 is not greater than 829.5310385802095. Delta is -0.14118537748549898
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 828.0177280338254 is not greater than 828.0486865764848. Delta is -0.03095854265939124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 854.4360620183693 is not greater than 854.724377521193. Delta is -0.288315502823707
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 839.1530794120738 is not greater than 839.9146860752134. Delta is -0.7616066631395597
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 812.2288189408523 is not greater than 812.5126137014671. Delta is -0.28379476061479636
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.6353522943688 is not greater than 795.0424973748649. Delta is -0.4071450804960932
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 767.0066878353769 is not greater than 767.1750714183536. Delta is -0.1683835829767304
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 785.2517584154964 is not greater than 785.7815661147973. Delta is -0.5298076993009317
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 796.7734985444658 is not greater than 797.4726489655761. Delta is -0.6991504211102892
Model is not converging.  Current: 813.480481867792 is not greater than 813.5351709751197. Delta is -0.05468910732770382
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 811.8712393846714 is not greater than 813.0998809603316. Delta is -1.2286415756601627
Model is not converging.  Current: 788.107962568123 is not greater than 788.4622091576755. Delta is -0.3542465895525311
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 806.3643553964694 is not greater than 807.581186790872. Delta is -1.216831394402675
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 784.7438795051225 is not greater than 785.2084557383408. Delta is -0.46457623321828123
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 779.8566327714418 is not greater than 780.7967314076088. Delta is -0.940098636167022
Model is not converging.  Current: 782.6697214291404 is not greater than 782.8739575795188. Delta is -0.20423615037839227
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 819.4085704378099 is not greater than 820.256788375168. Delta is -0.848217937358072
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 839.3568848530812 is not greater than 839.4732755436565. Delta is -0.11639069057537199
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 796.2539589056788 is not greater than 796.3027778016896. Delta is -0.04881889601074363
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 708.8241292957873 is not greater than 709.2092059462335. Delta is -0.38507665044619444
Model is not converging.  Current: 715.6177971725162 is not greater than 715.8225691674527. Delta is -0.20477199493643639
Model is not converging.  Current: 718.2995146345579 is not greater than 718.3322858099388. Delta is -0.0327711753808444
Model is not converging.  Current: 708.9631122979065 is not greater than 709.3991863020361. Delta is -0.4360740041296367
Model is not converging.  Current: 693.5345151546987 is not greater than 693.7011029982698. Delta is -0.16658784357105105
Model is not converging.  Current: 680.5257710594319 is not greater than 680.7466233096046. Delta is -0.2208522501726975
Model is not converging.  Current: 689.9020230957673 is not greater than 689.9464186756393. Delta is -0.0443955798720026
Model is not converging.  Current: 704.7361313799711 is not greater than 705.1388169080386. Delta is -0.4026855280675363
Model is not converging.  Current: 752.811430770457 is not greater than 752.9535604391656. Delta is -0.1421296687085487
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 773.0508402498517 is not greater than 773.1455037421197. Delta is -0.09466349226795501
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 785.8233748796808 is not greater than 785.9654933877662. Delta is -0.142118508085332
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 802.6667950599405 is not greater than 802.8208683226878. Delta is -0.15407326274737443
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 802.9144936520091 is not greater than 803.1329562728317. Delta is -0.21846262082260637
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 807.9836886383038 is not greater than 807.9871826712014. Delta is -0.003494032897606303
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 742.4235797034736 is not greater than 742.4487538069952. Delta is -0.025174103521635516
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 712.2318186018141 is not greater than 712.2663735734777. Delta is -0.0345549716636242
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 726.8185876921349 is not greater than 726.8314850641004. Delta is -0.01289737196555052
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 746.3161866668854 is not greater than 746.4325830662193. Delta is -0.1163963993338939
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 755.7688224067457 is not greater than 755.8029735813509. Delta is -0.03415117460519923
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 763.6264514995135 is not greater than 763.6371852101504. Delta is -0.010733710636941396
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 763.5690239418021 is not greater than 763.6516865978363. Delta is -0.08266265603413103
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 783.6224096045225 is not greater than 783.6461436774352. Delta is -0.023734072912702686
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 844.4712081719506 is not greater than 844.6539829961037. Delta is -0.18277482415305712
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 801.3245724924078 is not greater than 801.3333977115656. Delta is -0.008825219157756692
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre:  20%|██▊           | 1/5 [00:36<02:26, 36.63s/it]Model is not converging.  Current: 1441.3916982703859 is not greater than 1441.407479924162. Delta is -0.015781653776230087
Model is not converging.  Current: 1449.4453616630515 is not greater than 1449.4554350005758. Delta is -0.010073337524318049
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1450.2685490489891 is not greater than 1450.3781561007922. Delta is -0.1096070518030956
Model is not converging.  Current: 1466.539792579191 is not greater than 1467.0715715855272. Delta is -0.5317790063361372
Model is not converging.  Current: 1476.0897309520149 is not greater than 1476.1075750885184. Delta is -0.017844136503526897
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1467.158898669621 is not greater than 1467.2109353625024. Delta is -0.05203669288130186
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1389.9705324482552 is not greater than 1389.9882760521252. Delta is -0.01774360387003071
Model is not converging.  Current: 1392.5541066088258 is not greater than 1392.6772927890856. Delta is -0.12318618025983596
Model is not converging.  Current: 1392.88146588395 is not greater than 1392.89286876256. Delta is -0.01140287860994249
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1476.7335405309232 is not greater than 1476.8389618179367. Delta is -0.10542128701354159
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.0425389724044 is not greater than 1446.0583013748906. Delta is -0.015762402486188876
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.1191169448007 is not greater than 1553.3248092902095. Delta is -0.20569234540880643
Model is not converging.  Current: 1576.529407912627 is not greater than 1576.6471425112788. Delta is -0.11773459865185032
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1632.3457355309706 is not greater than 1632.5302147862053. Delta is -0.18447925523469166
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.5417256136268 is not greater than 1652.6897533925157. Delta is -0.14802777888894525
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1678.251884156794 is not greater than 1678.9568076110909. Delta is -0.7049234542969316
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1792.2904670355947 is not greater than 1792.3375347931299. Delta is -0.047067757535160126
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1775.409523485829 is not greater than 1775.9276919427614. Delta is -0.5181684569324716
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1809.5741114414218 is not greater than 1809.6924314319733. Delta is -0.11831999055152664
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1783.729274511621 is not greater than 1783.7624760785573. Delta is -0.03320156693621357
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1723.705382860016 is not greater than 1724.0423267820313. Delta is -0.3369439220152799
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1733.5651298252767 is not greater than 1733.5712370784586. Delta is -0.006107253181880878
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1734.0036938956941 is not greater than 1734.9155152615094. Delta is -0.9118213658152854
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1668.651158561981 is not greater than 1669.6739401341738. Delta is -1.0227815721927982
Model is not converging.  Current: 1647.96680061343 is not greater than 1648.1753532217351. Delta is -0.20855260830512634
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1621.229515548159 is not greater than 1621.3666899895425. Delta is -0.13717444138342216
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1607.676613668174 is not greater than 1607.7287373271267. Delta is -0.05212365895272342
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1598.635375082947 is not greater than 1599.0156113009612. Delta is -0.3802362180142609
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.1112792981849 is not greater than 1599.1322001887472. Delta is -0.020920890562365457
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1591.6973708885796 is not greater than 1591.9772206807502. Delta is -0.27984979217058026
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1575.0366550487363 is not greater than 1575.7085283793192. Delta is -0.6718733305829119
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1515.0482305678986 is not greater than 1515.1373658906678. Delta is -0.08913532276915248
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1382.3670198325121 is not greater than 1382.6235305812856. Delta is -0.25651074877350766
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1293.8293924357129 is not greater than 1293.8498035578707. Delta is -0.02041112215783869
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1301.4599804987547 is not greater than 1301.4648032206283. Delta is -0.004822721873551927
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1311.088643439353 is not greater than 1311.0959138426715. Delta is -0.007270403318443641
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1320.9039346008233 is not greater than 1320.9778005241371. Delta is -0.07386592331386055
Model is not converging.  Current: 1421.0717601037786 is not greater than 1421.268453457956. Delta is -0.19669335417734146
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.8381434093437 is not greater than 1488.247904904538. Delta is -0.4097614951942887
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1565.1519290132371 is not greater than 1565.3709659864633. Delta is -0.2190369732261388
Model is not converging.  Current: 1576.9862169820083 is not greater than 1577.0185117082904. Delta is -0.03229472628208896
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1563.2923295284095 is not greater than 1563.3990552485768. Delta is -0.10672572016733284
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.4960941806999 is not greater than 1499.5425500747115. Delta is -0.04645589401161487
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1478.816814611151 is not greater than 1478.8724146035368. Delta is -0.05559999238585078
Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.49415492093 is not greater than 1501.558273317324. Delta is -0.06411839639395112
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.2825532380475 is not greater than 1539.2962065158742. Delta is -0.013653277826733756
Model is not converging.  Current: 1592.9411357060321 is not greater than 1593.0235455295604. Delta is -0.08240982352822357
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1615.2783105620533 is not greater than 1615.325761558982. Delta is -0.04745099692877375
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.4372435069008 is not greater than 1651.6474156659826. Delta is -1.2101721590818215
Model is not converging.  Current: 1674.5274551295975 is not greater than 1674.5677688233638. Delta is -0.040313693766393044
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1716.5272934653092 is not greater than 1716.5421997190708. Delta is -0.014906253761637345
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1747.3741258280506 is not greater than 1748.6630475906059. Delta is -1.2889217625552192
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1706.1029618752123 is not greater than 1706.226852640955. Delta is -0.12389076574277169
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.1501684809618 is not greater than 1669.2680955530766. Delta is -2.117927072114753
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.850859607517 is not greater than 1650.8546976326263. Delta is -0.003838025109416776
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.7228592316396 is not greater than 1654.6395024350263. Delta is -3.916643203386684
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.0645269301287 is not greater than 1635.2022908223532. Delta is -0.13776389222448415
Model is not converging.  Current: 1637.8316139750746 is not greater than 1637.8998091638928. Delta is -0.06819518881820841
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1628.300409925579 is not greater than 1629.0992353196777. Delta is -0.7988253940986851
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.5338137471874 is not greater than 1654.4730775678006. Delta is -1.9392638206131778
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1672.4634638281382 is not greater than 1672.582694113296. Delta is -0.11923028515775513
Model is not converging.  Current: 1661.985816208896 is not greater than 1664.2732147118418. Delta is -2.2873985029457344
Model is not converging.  Current: 1685.3196137112768 is not greater than 1685.574783186842. Delta is -0.2551694755652534
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1688.4103999711404 is not greater than 1688.4557539909813. Delta is -0.04535401984094278
Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.3428200602498 is not greater than 1695.591516281705. Delta is -0.24869622145524772
Model is not converging.  Current: 1701.7118600895617 is not greater than 1701.8994168039258. Delta is -0.18755671436406374
Model is not converging.  Current: 1733.5183201461757 is not greater than 1734.7719422212203. Delta is -1.2536220750446319
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1747.4486419756615 is not greater than 1747.458928667502. Delta is -0.01028669184051978
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1763.7587348986815 is not greater than 1764.5298441891928. Delta is -0.7711092905112764
Model is not converging.  Current: 1797.938885622748 is not greater than 1798.482719584919. Delta is -0.5438339621709929
Model is not converging.  Current: 1814.6744881990226 is not greater than 1814.8947611925082. Delta is -0.22027299348565066
Model is not converging.  Current: 1846.9691761092977 is not greater than 1848.0219240075064. Delta is -1.052747898208736
Model is not converging.  Current: 1851.368589906049 is not greater than 1852.2006224580552. Delta is -0.8320325520062397
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1844.5326861271299 is not greater than 1844.713398404133. Delta is -0.18071227700306736
Model is not converging.  Current: 1820.0677900261917 is not greater than 1820.0832193608878. Delta is -0.01542933469613672
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1818.9021318994203 is not greater than 1819.8899016038627. Delta is -0.9877697044423712
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1816.4640399383934 is not greater than 1816.5758729927381. Delta is -0.11183305434474278
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1760.1353586258292 is not greater than 1760.1488113766818. Delta is -0.013452750852593454
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1720.2007969213453 is not greater than 1720.6801247974417. Delta is -0.47932787609647676
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1653.4836164920212 is not greater than 1653.649857166695. Delta is -0.1662406746738725
Model is not converging.  Current: 1656.618220384518 is not greater than 1656.8496675683277. Delta is -0.23144718380967788
Model is not converging.  Current: 1640.3824549913234 is not greater than 1640.6815545105483. Delta is -0.2990995192249102
Model is not converging.  Current: 1661.244663624494 is not greater than 1662.4759029848035. Delta is -1.2312393603094733
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.9659665756765 is not greater than 1669.2913866925933. Delta is -1.3254201169168027
Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.1223935641929 is not greater than 1633.9228951834095. Delta is -0.800501619216675
Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.576818994107 is not greater than 1586.296787178914. Delta is -0.7199681848069304
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.6095661248507 is not greater than 1550.7579458822586. Delta is -0.14837975740783804
Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.1481586740274 is not greater than 1529.6400018321997. Delta is -0.4918431581722871
Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.5270428940692 is not greater than 1536.602207827167. Delta is -0.07516493309776706
Model is not converging.  Current: 1509.1014564682455 is not greater than 1509.2644669267. Delta is -0.16301045845443696
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.5002428352152 is not greater than 1557.7601803749385. Delta is -0.25993753972329614
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.3143144495987 is not greater than 1557.378487356992. Delta is -0.06417290739341297
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.908780859447 is not greater than 1542.7108583177157. Delta is -0.8020774582687409
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.5056476232035 is not greater than 1535.664722048843. Delta is -0.15907442563957375
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.0189094645789 is not greater than 1537.2646029027067. Delta is -0.24569343812777333
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.4395306171862 is not greater than 1540.5347868078404. Delta is -0.09525619065425417
Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.3688561150068 is not greater than 1525.6292527376042. Delta is -0.26039662259745455
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.3139081194356 is not greater than 1556.4012463492695. Delta is -0.08733822983390382
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.6459465575786 is not greater than 1556.7024588242032. Delta is -0.0565122666246225
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.5063636803077 is not greater than 1555.6720225304236. Delta is -0.16565885011596038
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.5972765241404 is not greater than 1550.6902126486516. Delta is -0.0929361245111977
Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.9208057941457 is not greater than 1529.5759514480012. Delta is -0.6551456538554703
Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.0626083426366 is not greater than 1516.180279800716. Delta is -0.11767145807948509
Model is not converging.  Current: 1569.351424152211 is not greater than 1570.610817481628. Delta is -1.2593933294169801
Model is not converging.  Current: 1546.9932012833503 is not greater than 1547.2235360529717. Delta is -0.23033476962132227
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.2539363223266 is not greater than 1529.268895891236. Delta is -0.014959568909489462
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.9693138598868 is not greater than 1525.3249866179237. Delta is -0.355672758036917
Model is not converging.  Current: 1506.9552107363997 is not greater than 1507.027920047005. Delta is -0.07270931060520525
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.6830317886127 is not greater than 1488.7640581524367. Delta is -0.081026363824094
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.9096774438835 is not greater than 1494.0921787047766. Delta is -0.1825012608931047
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.1972641637574 is not greater than 1492.5522793604587. Delta is -0.355015196701288
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1497.7674054511212 is not greater than 1497.832603248939. Delta is -0.0651977978177456
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.978684104763 is not greater than 1486.0016233636363. Delta is -0.02293925887329351
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.8889041010993 is not greater than 1497.0707549865676. Delta is -0.1818508854682932
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.7412342902978 is not greater than 1488.972490290075. Delta is -0.23125599977720412
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.4356001594679 is not greater than 1492.9392698698891. Delta is -0.5036697104212635
Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.0618153118917 is not greater than 1481.1621352068653. Delta is -0.10031989497360883
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.0238876160436 is not greater than 1491.1456727933835. Delta is -0.12178517733991612
Model is not converging.  Current: 1479.2827238633033 is not greater than 1479.3330811919402. Delta is -0.05035732863689191
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.6949541109016 is not greater than 1490.7071194418452. Delta is -0.012165330943616937
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.4907355245057 is not greater than 1491.5759198113428. Delta is -0.08518428683714774
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.0337820628445 is not greater than 1496.0811203755618. Delta is -0.047338312717329245
Model is not converging.  Current: 1509.1555490925682 is not greater than 1509.3075060163394. Delta is -0.15195692377119485
Model is not converging.  Current: 1518.0527220562274 is not greater than 1518.056932492887. Delta is -0.004210436659604966
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.6846873311144 is not greater than 1538.8138708873212. Delta is -0.12918355620672628
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1602.9592612961897 is not greater than 1603.302829458455. Delta is -0.3435681622654556
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1610.748003925318 is not greater than 1610.8633648899001. Delta is -0.11536096458212342
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1630.5573304468417 is not greater than 1630.8506016113497. Delta is -0.2932711645080417
Model is not converging.  Current: 1657.3898728811732 is not greater than 1657.4132591678208. Delta is -0.023386286647564702
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1687.8576098339902 is not greater than 1687.9418503586467. Delta is -0.08424052465647947
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1703.9993038311104 is not greater than 1704.0511333037475. Delta is -0.051829472637109575
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1693.8257767245102 is not greater than 1693.9918062025542. Delta is -0.16602947804403811
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre:  40%|█████▌        | 2/5 [01:46<02:47, 55.97s/it]Model is not converging.  Current: 2108.421609529769 is not greater than 2108.4241291983026. Delta is -0.0025196685337505187
Model is not converging.  Current: 2128.6699008808355 is not greater than 2128.6850233391997. Delta is -0.01512245836420334
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2137.4036940604174 is not greater than 2137.473411440834. Delta is -0.06971738041647768
Model is not converging.  Current: 2208.5205002998937 is not greater than 2208.524070610418. Delta is -0.00357031052453749
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2224.6398336671737 is not greater than 2224.690446421445. Delta is -0.05061275427124201
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2276.4059332408365 is not greater than 2276.6184816902282. Delta is -0.2125484493917611
Model is not converging.  Current: 2300.0326024700576 is not greater than 2300.0745806464915. Delta is -0.041978176433985936
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2338.4382536657668 is not greater than 2338.5718846203818. Delta is -0.13363095461500052
Model is not converging.  Current: 2333.1529092782994 is not greater than 2333.498999800078. Delta is -0.34609052177847843
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2381.5930043354797 is not greater than 2381.729089345364. Delta is -0.13608500988448213
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2471.739893428606 is not greater than 2472.5623235620515. Delta is -0.822430133445323
Model is not converging.  Current: 2493.6692658536954 is not greater than 2493.808895798282. Delta is -0.13962994458643152
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2485.9486753573588 is not greater than 2486.14417594658. Delta is -0.19550058922141034
Model is not converging.  Current: 2514.0058635298824 is not greater than 2514.734426487312. Delta is -0.7285629574294035
Model is not converging.  Current: 2525.807526528915 is not greater than 2526.051717437295. Delta is -0.24419090838000557
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2575.458904738606 is not greater than 2575.742618367537. Delta is -0.2837136289308546
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2667.955609995363 is not greater than 2668.0430999502. Delta is -0.08748995483711042
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2699.1734663515886 is not greater than 2699.3702421272737. Delta is -0.19677577568518245
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2703.6276884515987 is not greater than 2703.76173552348. Delta is -0.13404707188146858
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2700.025119830786 is not greater than 2700.0328586249498. Delta is -0.007738794163742568
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2691.793800138666 is not greater than 2691.973070553455. Delta is -0.1792704147887889
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2641.9326559910755 is not greater than 2642.3624527491174. Delta is -0.42979675804190265
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2618.6147286360874 is not greater than 2618.629846966488. Delta is -0.015118330400582636
Model is not converging.  Current: 2613.3533958344115 is not greater than 2613.562715285412. Delta is -0.2093194510007379
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2634.554838611213 is not greater than 2635.724485808143. Delta is -1.1696471969298727
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2603.683572918827 is not greater than 2604.6011660389213. Delta is -0.9175931200943523
Model is not converging.  Current: 2583.8110822815183 is not greater than 2583.9432161651744. Delta is -0.1321338836560244
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2554.9864641094136 is not greater than 2555.02796866238. Delta is -0.04150455296621658
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2498.095930371034 is not greater than 2498.220116677315. Delta is -0.12418630628144456
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2484.929062680212 is not greater than 2484.979106254779. Delta is -0.050043574566643656
Model is not converging.  Current: 2451.709001200507 is not greater than 2451.8131165128852. Delta is -0.10411531237832605
Model is not converging.  Current: 2435.428716081639 is not greater than 2435.6718534600413. Delta is -0.24313737840247995
Model is not converging.  Current: 2419.220752442772 is not greater than 2419.2488739923806. Delta is -0.028121549608385976
Model is not converging.  Current: 2373.723020270306 is not greater than 2374.3657290136352. Delta is -0.6427087433294218
Model is not converging.  Current: 2288.391530516695 is not greater than 2288.6270267692516. Delta is -0.23549625255645878
Model is not converging.  Current: 2261.2042300278313 is not greater than 2261.500556866699. Delta is -0.2963268388675715
Model is not converging.  Current: 2242.1591110144423 is not greater than 2242.629677797356. Delta is -0.4705667829139202
Model is not converging.  Current: 2184.388200788886 is not greater than 2184.490964868274. Delta is -0.10276407938818011
Model is not converging.  Current: 2136.015828988291 is not greater than 2136.0350871672495. Delta is -0.0192581789583528
Model is not converging.  Current: 2124.4915306458815 is not greater than 2124.748517477645. Delta is -0.25698683176324266
Model is not converging.  Current: 2119.5483381147974 is not greater than 2119.5814200084565. Delta is -0.0330818936590731
Model is not converging.  Current: 2108.611201365649 is not greater than 2108.6872579596834. Delta is -0.07605659403452592
Model is not converging.  Current: 2101.885971420325 is not greater than 2102.0004443383345. Delta is -0.11447291800959647
Model is not converging.  Current: 2090.254201830185 is not greater than 2090.299512401291. Delta is -0.0453105711058015
Model is not converging.  Current: 2041.2316431158938 is not greater than 2041.235358640722. Delta is -0.003715524828294292
Model is not converging.  Current: 2044.8785692404663 is not greater than 2044.9331303636927. Delta is -0.054561123226449126
Model is not converging.  Current: 2055.7265781705933 is not greater than 2055.728206783554. Delta is -0.0016286129607578914
Model is not converging.  Current: 2076.4665001398494 is not greater than 2076.4799427120497. Delta is -0.013442572200347058
Model is not converging.  Current: 2116.017979105119 is not greater than 2116.2967898230618. Delta is -0.27881071794263335
Model is not converging.  Current: 2129.365891630119 is not greater than 2129.371720758683. Delta is -0.005829128563618724
Model is not converging.  Current: 2123.4262233724126 is not greater than 2123.4840305217886. Delta is -0.05780714937600351
Model is not converging.  Current: 2128.4024507107033 is not greater than 2128.43572413247. Delta is -0.03327342176680759
Model is not converging.  Current: 2164.4160097788535 is not greater than 2164.6938003886025. Delta is -0.2777906097489904
Model is not converging.  Current: 2178.6672897246226 is not greater than 2178.6687644094613. Delta is -0.0014746848387403588
Model is not converging.  Current: 2227.824369082055 is not greater than 2227.8748574541523. Delta is -0.05048837209733392
Model is not converging.  Current: 2271.5386581106377 is not greater than 2271.587884887822. Delta is -0.04922677718423074
Model is not converging.  Current: 2321.7459604936785 is not greater than 2321.757452780004. Delta is -0.011492286325392342
Model is not converging.  Current: 2322.6200687887745 is not greater than 2322.662579647764. Delta is -0.04251085898931706
Model is not converging.  Current: 2331.103993637304 is not greater than 2331.314054897324. Delta is -0.21006126001975645
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2335.19374575021 is not greater than 2335.3307003719383. Delta is -0.13695462172836415
Model is not converging.  Current: 2340.4930701099865 is not greater than 2340.5257059777737. Delta is -0.03263586778712124
Model is not converging.  Current: 2349.4022469223305 is not greater than 2349.4495486334017. Delta is -0.047301711071213504
Model is not converging.  Current: 2365.2961254222005 is not greater than 2365.4210134683426. Delta is -0.12488804614213223
Model is not converging.  Current: 2365.3509990924613 is not greater than 2365.396769480497. Delta is -0.045770388035634824
Model is not converging.  Current: 2359.595237768283 is not greater than 2359.615261913839. Delta is -0.020024145555908035
Model is not converging.  Current: 2377.5718625171 is not greater than 2377.7297247526. Delta is -0.15786223550003342
Model is not converging.  Current: 2384.6017280282717 is not greater than 2384.6164207338525. Delta is -0.014692705580728216
Model is not converging.  Current: 2410.3791701737787 is not greater than 2410.4767253067107. Delta is -0.09755513293202966
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2433.8515450316727 is not greater than 2433.9254324221115. Delta is -0.07388739043881287
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2455.5587183967527 is not greater than 2455.5595311523616. Delta is -0.0008127556088766141
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2522.168882843684 is not greater than 2522.1837940743926. Delta is -0.014911230708548828
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2524.565222403882 is not greater than 2524.5760247785306. Delta is -0.010802374648392288
Model is not converging.  Current: 2567.3781039000974 is not greater than 2568.457947161926. Delta is -1.0798432618285005
Model is not converging.  Current: 2603.469618968104 is not greater than 2604.942693273534. Delta is -1.4730743054301456
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2592.5582925789863 is not greater than 2592.580180443251. Delta is -0.021887864264499513
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2595.994899512394 is not greater than 2596.348481563735. Delta is -0.35358205134070886
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2596.13699381628 is not greater than 2597.193404757139. Delta is -1.0564109408587683
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2581.550869287455 is not greater than 2581.6219352100043. Delta is -0.07106592254922361
Model is not converging.  Current: 2581.827271965841 is not greater than 2582.7830139708517. Delta is -0.9557420050105065
Model is not converging.  Current: 2563.7191898184856 is not greater than 2563.7334065322325. Delta is -0.014216713746918686
Model is not converging.  Current: 2530.4974637292844 is not greater than 2530.575805035726. Delta is -0.07834130644141624
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2532.3190786414966 is not greater than 2532.429166211341. Delta is -0.1100875698443815
Model is not converging.  Current: 2529.6918122568163 is not greater than 2529.7377515699013. Delta is -0.04593931308500032
Model is not converging.  Current: 2554.1679607528436 is not greater than 2556.9738661533347. Delta is -2.805905400491156
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2527.6970710761298 is not greater than 2527.709543728551. Delta is -0.012472652421365638
Model is not converging.  Current: 2523.4773433114615 is not greater than 2524.5209599436093. Delta is -1.0436166321478595
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2531.3730489265936 is not greater than 2531.4231439821224. Delta is -0.0500950555288
Model is not converging.  Current: 2487.8160992616667 is not greater than 2487.8487904297626. Delta is -0.03269116809588013
Model is not converging.  Current: 2536.791097147039 is not greater than 2537.208219789565. Delta is -0.41712264252601017
Model is not converging.  Current: 2557.211199018493 is not greater than 2558.5545747532187. Delta is -1.3433757347256687
Model is not converging.  Current: 2567.9177197846266 is not greater than 2568.342568957503. Delta is -0.42484917287629287
Model is not converging.  Current: 2563.870635563787 is not greater than 2563.9109890240497. Delta is -0.040353460262849694
Model is not converging.  Current: 2591.4127465236684 is not greater than 2595.3779715338205. Delta is -3.965225010152153
Model is not converging.  Current: 2565.55465252082 is not greater than 2565.601321195536. Delta is -0.04666867471587466
Model is not converging.  Current: 2609.6659005094334 is not greater than 2610.7069201519316. Delta is -1.0410196424982132
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2635.0325936715567 is not greater than 2635.0739188797197. Delta is -0.041325208163016214
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2576.2498698519535 is not greater than 2576.8471511519897. Delta is -0.5972813000362294
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2644.9109288400186 is not greater than 2644.9790609835586. Delta is -0.06813214353996955
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2685.996700364886 is not greater than 2686.013392150329. Delta is -0.01669178544307215
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2682.6533113472 is not greater than 2682.683125649475. Delta is -0.02981430227509918
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2683.0942962848067 is not greater than 2683.127023699487. Delta is -0.03272741468026652
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2689.7707588921553 is not greater than 2689.8877753670236. Delta is -0.11701647486825095
Model is not converging.  Current: 2673.4005659169 is not greater than 2677.458782895715. Delta is -4.058216978814926
Model is not converging.  Current: 2692.349755754242 is not greater than 2692.3644148522935. Delta is -0.014659098051652109
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2650.8926594182863 is not greater than 2651.318078151507. Delta is -0.4254187332207948
Model is not converging.  Current: 2640.312765414936 is not greater than 2640.342694395992. Delta is -0.02992898105594577
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2659.104217163062 is not greater than 2659.4650381076103. Delta is -0.3608209445483226
Model is not converging.  Current: 2660.833430449204 is not greater than 2660.8348654372553. Delta is -0.001434988051187247
Model is not converging.  Current: 2631.9768870193857 is not greater than 2632.029613984417. Delta is -0.05272696503152474
Model is not converging.  Current: 2499.568055394428 is not greater than 2500.1323996541037. Delta is -0.5643442596756358
Model is not converging.  Current: 2431.160423670831 is not greater than 2431.8715108749893. Delta is -0.7110872041585026
Model is not converging.  Current: 2390.7169493658766 is not greater than 2391.1231805360594. Delta is -0.4062311701827639
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2318.514471161335 is not greater than 2319.1935663953063. Delta is -0.6790952339711112
Model is not converging.  Current: 2323.3007053040205 is not greater than 2323.745357553744. Delta is -0.4446522497232763
Model is not converging.  Current: 2363.6362646366415 is not greater than 2364.633452851316. Delta is -0.9971882146746793
Model is not converging.  Current: 2364.088613508266 is not greater than 2364.207673884108. Delta is -0.1190603758418547
Model is not converging.  Current: 2361.7334823440788 is not greater than 2361.8225563702517. Delta is -0.08907402617296611
Model is not converging.  Current: 2364.328859296858 is not greater than 2364.3780035909735. Delta is -0.049144294115649245
Model is not converging.  Current: 2374.335449391892 is not greater than 2374.5034702997987. Delta is -0.16802090790679358
Model is not converging.  Current: 2395.0759489289658 is not greater than 2395.142630857165. Delta is -0.0666819281991593
Model is not converging.  Current: 2391.1526970594887 is not greater than 2391.5332746879662. Delta is -0.3805776284775675
Model is not converging.  Current: 2383.353271927445 is not greater than 2383.451092559568. Delta is -0.09782063212333014
Model is not converging.  Current: 2345.707910711753 is not greater than 2345.8614327168157. Delta is -0.15352200506276859
Model is not converging.  Current: 2332.075355745136 is not greater than 2332.1746163062535. Delta is -0.09926056111726211
Model is not converging.  Current: 2314.7913022531898 is not greater than 2314.9324807983367. Delta is -0.14117854514688588
Model is not converging.  Current: 2266.0074972677335 is not greater than 2266.0611897861677. Delta is -0.05369251843421807
Model is not converging.  Current: 2254.707417917448 is not greater than 2254.8914674014127. Delta is -0.18404948396482723
Model is not converging.  Current: 2206.230590383275 is not greater than 2206.4943938139995. Delta is -0.2638034307246926
Model is not converging.  Current: 2192.786152427771 is not greater than 2192.8023389276423. Delta is -0.016186499871309934
Model is not converging.  Current: 2174.1910708593696 is not greater than 2174.1929238862326. Delta is -0.0018530268630456703
Model is not converging.  Current: 2243.2294950709343 is not greater than 2243.2624276301813. Delta is -0.032932559247001336
Model is not converging.  Current: 2268.761303670986 is not greater than 2269.148767256338. Delta is -0.3874635853521795
Model is not converging.  Current: 2284.8338544388653 is not greater than 2284.841232932629. Delta is -0.007378493763553706
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2289.1073458816077 is not greater than 2289.128875162329. Delta is -0.021529280721551913
Model is not converging.  Current: 2306.253157093309 is not greater than 2306.29883997554. Delta is -0.045682882231176336
Model is not converging.  Current: 2294.6882716704063 is not greater than 2294.725081318626. Delta is -0.03680964821978705
Model is not converging.  Current: 2315.5212616871627 is not greater than 2315.595601366529. Delta is -0.07433967936640329
Model is not converging.  Current: 2319.468625686843 is not greater than 2319.5092427816953. Delta is -0.04061709485222309
Model is not converging.  Current: 2315.428016425324 is not greater than 2315.453460865198. Delta is -0.025444439873808733
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 2373.8015371093247 is not greater than 2374.064738886533. Delta is -0.26320177720845095
Model is not converging.  Current: 2330.682728924807 is not greater than 2330.760448334163. Delta is -0.07771940935572275
Model is not converging.  Current: 2333.2741636724204 is not greater than 2333.3755723351005. Delta is -0.1014086626801145
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 2326.836671716606 is not greater than 2327.0616444601487. Delta is -0.22497274354282126
Model is not converging.  Current: 2314.5096510915255 is not greater than 2314.5875979970574. Delta is -0.07794690553191685
Model is not converging.  Current: 2329.7307284723797 is not greater than 2329.770742143175. Delta is -0.04001367079536067
Model is not converging.  Current: 2358.450530697602 is not greater than 2358.471098402979. Delta is -0.020567705376834056
🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre:  60%|████████▍     | 3/5 [02:49<01:58, 59.15s/it]Model is not converging.  Current: 2891.6767199434944 is not greater than 2891.687070314946. Delta is -0.010350371451750107
Model is not converging.  Current: 2915.3637755974064 is not greater than 2915.3782747935197. Delta is -0.014499196113320068
Model is not converging.  Current: 3004.715158894345 is not greater than 3005.062561493079. Delta is -0.34740259873387913
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3002.8809463710836 is not greater than 3002.8908928217506. Delta is -0.009946450667030149
Model is not converging.  Current: 3030.099522477847 is not greater than 3030.102009139265. Delta is -0.002486661418060976
Model is not converging.  Current: 3040.720100303592 is not greater than 3040.761877358165. Delta is -0.04177705457277625
Model is not converging.  Current: 3066.105085018164 is not greater than 3066.1419110802044. Delta is -0.03682606204029071
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3089.1182338153376 is not greater than 3089.183631874346. Delta is -0.06539805900820284
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3100.0487013561938 is not greater than 3100.17651529259. Delta is -0.12781393639625094
Model is not converging.  Current: 3109.409443336798 is not greater than 3109.415045485758. Delta is -0.005602148959951592
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3125.617853795322 is not greater than 3125.6546732712454. Delta is -0.03681947592349388
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3176.5962051848737 is not greater than 3176.889029966503. Delta is -0.29282478162940606
Model is not converging.  Current: 3213.847010985469 is not greater than 3213.8482426562987. Delta is -0.0012316708298385493
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 3193.881087721499 is not greater than 3194.014302232629. Delta is -0.13321451112960858
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3375.9339226102297 is not greater than 3375.9351096471682. Delta is -0.0011870369385178492
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3426.0847789132144 is not greater than 3426.1155480654443. Delta is -0.030769152229822794
Model is not converging.  Current: 3449.243364656757 is not greater than 3449.3300595539195. Delta is -0.0866948971624879
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3504.2380205342365 is not greater than 3504.9821150590014. Delta is -0.7440945247649324
Model is not converging.  Current: 3522.848221844663 is not greater than 3522.992355433829. Delta is -0.14413358916590369
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 3543.3827832163693 is not greater than 3543.6969769026496. Delta is -0.314193686280305
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3543.3649892946264 is not greater than 3543.581855434356. Delta is -0.21686613972951818
Model is not converging.  Current: 3531.3184133325026 is not greater than 3531.3510179854466. Delta is -0.03260465294397363
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3526.3168954304947 is not greater than 3526.3388890970837. Delta is -0.021993666588969063
Model is not converging.  Current: 3521.5848453985586 is not greater than 3521.714285283603. Delta is -0.12943988504457593
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3504.007642773459 is not greater than 3504.245211396781. Delta is -0.23756862332220408
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3501.6595586335093 is not greater than 3501.681214370286. Delta is -0.021655736776665435
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 3472.163599881494 is not greater than 3472.1706164659977. Delta is -0.007016584503617196
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3395.749756327706 is not greater than 3395.8888479732514. Delta is -0.13909164554524978
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 3441.999448315937 is not greater than 3442.11352350196. Delta is -0.11407518602300115
Model is not converging.  Current: 3382.671539012434 is not greater than 3382.676576220399. Delta is -0.005037207964960544
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3409.4271443611105 is not greater than 3411.7180234559855. Delta is -2.290879094874981
Model is not converging.  Current: 3322.1066901611302 is not greater than 3322.3883695803625. Delta is -0.28167941923220496
Model is not converging.  Current: 3389.9783417363265 is not greater than 3389.9860652263783. Delta is -0.007723490051830595
Model is not converging.  Current: 3252.053427238752 is not greater than 3252.0634991987035. Delta is -0.010071959951346798
Model is not converging.  Current: 3213.4851826250233 is not greater than 3213.52601131264. Delta is -0.04082868761679492
Model is not converging.  Current: 3091.1241246624627 is not greater than 3091.1671939847006. Delta is -0.04306932223789772
Model is not converging.  Current: 3077.033089044076 is not greater than 3077.1043731698214. Delta is -0.07128412574547838
Model is not converging.  Current: 3011.3890180327608 is not greater than 3011.424051772695. Delta is -0.03503373993407877
Model is not converging.  Current: 2981.7550216692484 is not greater than 2981.8200438122353. Delta is -0.06502214298689069
Model is not converging.  Current: 2992.3359679672317 is not greater than 2992.3596276087014. Delta is -0.02365964146974875
Model is not converging.  Current: 2988.4222072617654 is not greater than 2988.428621867715. Delta is -0.006414605949430552
Model is not converging.  Current: 2965.187742963179 is not greater than 2965.482847890413. Delta is -0.29510492723375137
Model is not converging.  Current: 2952.830279771791 is not greater than 2952.94446789694. Delta is -0.11418812514875754
Model is not converging.  Current: 2945.67222094551 is not greater than 2945.9960869863617. Delta is -0.32386604085149884
Model is not converging.  Current: 2949.684341381812 is not greater than 2949.7022616444297. Delta is -0.017920262617735716
Model is not converging.  Current: 2940.659068843491 is not greater than 2940.860430897016. Delta is -0.20136205352537218
Model is not converging.  Current: 2937.9424501591966 is not greater than 2938.316678922181. Delta is -0.3742287629843304
Model is not converging.  Current: 2916.3134590036248 is not greater than 2916.3173304252778. Delta is -0.0038714216530024714
Model is not converging.  Current: 2891.6088284463 is not greater than 2891.7418795953304. Delta is -0.13305114903050708
Model is not converging.  Current: 2870.7798493668024 is not greater than 2870.8494398691646. Delta is -0.069590502362189
Model is not converging.  Current: 2880.878349564046 is not greater than 2880.8784136235085. Delta is -6.405946260201745e-05
Model is not converging.  Current: 2862.444516641004 is not greater than 2862.445697861072. Delta is -0.0011812200677923101
Model is not converging.  Current: 2869.18717882243 is not greater than 2869.352529737255. Delta is -0.1653509148250123
Model is not converging.  Current: 2853.0406300544155 is not greater than 2853.1664003591172. Delta is -0.12577030470174577
Model is not converging.  Current: 2859.548488512243 is not greater than 2859.569783912034. Delta is -0.0212953997911427
Model is not converging.  Current: 2850.8737667649557 is not greater than 2851.364339702239. Delta is -0.4905729372831047
Model is not converging.  Current: 2852.4737778196186 is not greater than 2852.7066639879376. Delta is -0.2328861683190553
Model is not converging.  Current: 2860.10037432905 is not greater than 2860.1830829752207. Delta is -0.08270864617088591
Model is not converging.  Current: 2840.5741019208795 is not greater than 2840.666404495105. Delta is -0.09230257422541399
Model is not converging.  Current: 2820.8136849891926 is not greater than 2820.8186545135054. Delta is -0.004969524312855356
Model is not converging.  Current: 2798.8339712922843 is not greater than 2798.8412073991503. Delta is -0.007236106866002956
Model is not converging.  Current: 2798.190495163551 is not greater than 2798.2146252288053. Delta is -0.02413006525421224
Model is not converging.  Current: 2794.277434578235 is not greater than 2794.403304508782. Delta is -0.12586993054719642
Model is not converging.  Current: 2811.179655272307 is not greater than 2811.2177013418686. Delta is -0.03804606956146017
Model is not converging.  Current: 2852.709114996904 is not greater than 2852.7202860032417. Delta is -0.01117100633746304
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 2863.7570345545546 is not greater than 2863.7613310157412. Delta is -0.004296461186640954
Model is not converging.  Current: 3015.632211726566 is not greater than 3015.7385271843827. Delta is -0.10631545781689056
Model is not converging.  Current: 3038.619861367592 is not greater than 3038.6467480892898. Delta is -0.026886721697792382
Model is not converging.  Current: 3069.7904921830823 is not greater than 3069.8402647202897. Delta is -0.049772537207445566
Model is not converging.  Current: 3095.358143318394 is not greater than 3095.7551724107857. Delta is -0.3970290923916764
Model is not converging.  Current: 3189.620897479008 is not greater than 3189.6594900182827. Delta is -0.038592539274759474
Model is not converging.  Current: 3188.124356157798 is not greater than 3188.2344174829373. Delta is -0.1100613251392133
Model is not converging.  Current: 3212.0958479607084 is not greater than 3212.550376780306. Delta is -0.4545288195977264
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3218.7545493871494 is not greater than 3218.836086704805. Delta is -0.08153731765560224
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3255.967799081948 is not greater than 3256.671575366006. Delta is -0.703776284057767
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3335.933725088549 is not greater than 3336.2201037854593. Delta is -0.28637869691010565
Model is not converging.  Current: 3347.516690933572 is not greater than 3347.585609011518. Delta is -0.06891807794590932
Model is not converging.  Current: 3346.900827683205 is not greater than 3347.133569905703. Delta is -0.23274222249801824
Model is not converging.  Current: 3353.9766164793887 is not greater than 3354.0071040618227. Delta is -0.030487582434034266
Model is not converging.  Current: 3350.68655429501 is not greater than 3350.689744185748. Delta is -0.0031898907382128527
Model is not converging.  Current: 3334.961966971631 is not greater than 3335.007197358255. Delta is -0.045230386623643426
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3339.9537988693082 is not greater than 3340.0350992595695. Delta is -0.08130039026127633
Model is not converging.  Current: 3338.0008440725064 is not greater than 3338.1030106864027. Delta is -0.10216661389631554
Model is not converging.  Current: 3349.943440562065 is not greater than 3350.0401040935703. Delta is -0.09666353150532814
Model is not converging.  Current: 3355.795812842052 is not greater than 3355.968312829665. Delta is -0.17249998761326424
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 3371.495781110903 is not greater than 3371.5035521445093. Delta is -0.007771033606331912
Model is not converging.  Current: 3394.531869563068 is not greater than 3394.638534978953. Delta is -0.10666541588489054
Model is not converging.  Current: 3392.862447399085 is not greater than 3392.8796657617195. Delta is -0.017218362634594087
Model is not converging.  Current: 3430.133178670272 is not greater than 3430.9773216391345. Delta is -0.844142968862343
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3427.007878588056 is not greater than 3427.1824806181608. Delta is -0.17460203010477926
Model is not converging.  Current: 3399.8065288421703 is not greater than 3401.8857623475465. Delta is -2.0792335053761235
Model is not converging.  Current: 3420.6804214649655 is not greater than 3420.9553416410195. Delta is -0.27492017605391084
Model is not converging.  Current: 3386.2300419142807 is not greater than 3386.2413071573583. Delta is -0.011265243077559717
Model is not converging.  Current: 3392.692469736617 is not greater than 3392.757064269638. Delta is -0.06459453302068141
Model is not converging.  Current: 3390.7346370522346 is not greater than 3390.756941773024. Delta is -0.022304720789634302
Model is not converging.  Current: 3406.004939187632 is not greater than 3406.121509985605. Delta is -0.11657079797305414
Model is not converging.  Current: 3418.3291652227595 is not greater than 3418.3473174471046. Delta is -0.018152224345158174
Model is not converging.  Current: 3418.926163876275 is not greater than 3418.9696078715874. Delta is -0.04344399531237286
Model is not converging.  Current: 3427.647414634186 is not greater than 3427.6532422826876. Delta is -0.00582764850150852
Model is not converging.  Current: 3448.6656799248267 is not greater than 3450.3624809478765. Delta is -1.6968010230498294
Model is not converging.  Current: 3421.553876252992 is not greater than 3421.7335537835397. Delta is -0.17967753054790592
Model is not converging.  Current: 3449.1450987906223 is not greater than 3449.192276426842. Delta is -0.04717763621965787
Model is not converging.  Current: 3460.6763237208033 is not greater than 3460.837455411616. Delta is -0.1611316908124536
Model is not converging.  Current: 3471.959906294798 is not greater than 3472.062116023974. Delta is -0.1022097291756836
Model is not converging.  Current: 3485.908784013404 is not greater than 3485.9183261430267. Delta is -0.009542129622786888
Model is not converging.  Current: 3491.5692626370533 is not greater than 3491.5883886626993. Delta is -0.019126025646073685
Model is not converging.  Current: 3489.7991199302382 is not greater than 3490.0285441839305. Delta is -0.22942425369228658
Model is not converging.  Current: 3520.991212517039 is not greater than 3521.04858916275. Delta is -0.05737664571097412
Model is not converging.  Current: 3531.0495703549336 is not greater than 3531.054876871294. Delta is -0.005306516360178648
Model is not converging.  Current: 3543.45920647706 is not greater than 3544.5245427427844. Delta is -1.0653362657244543
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3486.984421148691 is not greater than 3487.0127639219922. Delta is -0.02834277330111945
Model is not converging.  Current: 3366.4076541350723 is not greater than 3366.4179857470617. Delta is -0.010331611989386147
Model is not converging.  Current: 3522.022478543737 is not greater than 3523.3266015620234. Delta is -1.304123018286191
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3502.4173277296677 is not greater than 3502.5035063718087. Delta is -0.08617864214102156
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3502.9437574107637 is not greater than 3502.9461527637345. Delta is -0.0023953529707796406
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3514.274417994028 is not greater than 3514.2790182910485. Delta is -0.0046002970202607685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3514.062341202207 is not greater than 3514.12639614448. Delta is -0.06405494227328745
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3402.2550812086592 is not greater than 3402.677009424708. Delta is -0.42192821604885467
Model is not converging.  Current: 3569.585579649034 is not greater than 3569.6110961502723. Delta is -0.025516501238143974
Model is not converging.  Current: 3574.831086134231 is not greater than 3575.21855293976. Delta is -0.38746680552867474
Model is not converging.  Current: 3502.4699719830446 is not greater than 3502.528756986702. Delta is -0.058785003657249035
Model is not converging.  Current: 3457.660395952609 is not greater than 3457.7007077716016. Delta is -0.040311818992449844
Model is not converging.  Current: 3378.745403538382 is not greater than 3378.748845891361. Delta is -0.0034423529787090956
Model is not converging.  Current: 3297.299777667066 is not greater than 3298.6713310950327. Delta is -1.3715534279667736
Model is not converging.  Current: 3263.273824645033 is not greater than 3263.436776218205. Delta is -0.16295157317199482
Model is not converging.  Current: 3214.9959041772777 is not greater than 3215.3074715052535. Delta is -0.31156732797580844
Model is not converging.  Current: 3296.0366152002443 is not greater than 3296.066610275006. Delta is -0.02999507476170038
Model is not converging.  Current: 3227.1450219571316 is not greater than 3227.506798099141. Delta is -0.36177614200960306
Model is not converging.  Current: 3183.4066560608003 is not greater than 3183.651071263242. Delta is -0.24441520244181447
Model is not converging.  Current: 3175.4570669379623 is not greater than 3175.501024568369. Delta is -0.04395763040656675
Model is not converging.  Current: 3157.022206892932 is not greater than 3157.039198458781. Delta is -0.016991565848911705
Model is not converging.  Current: 3085.259274358839 is not greater than 3085.4603063672985. Delta is -0.201032008459606
Model is not converging.  Current: 3034.972752930171 is not greater than 3034.9997741464854. Delta is -0.027021216314551566
Model is not converging.  Current: 3050.24288802672 is not greater than 3050.247487072636. Delta is -0.004599045916165778
Model is not converging.  Current: 3017.2679223947616 is not greater than 3017.5266019360474. Delta is -0.25867954128580095
Model is not converging.  Current: 3024.506428285413 is not greater than 3024.5085827512216. Delta is -0.0021544658084167168
Model is not converging.  Current: 3015.13150259233 is not greater than 3015.2461123858634. Delta is -0.11460979353341827
Model is not converging.  Current: 3019.1488461210856 is not greater than 3019.2731783134827. Delta is -0.12433219239710525
Model is not converging.  Current: 3037.1526457911714 is not greater than 3037.3665123598184. Delta is -0.2138665686470631
Model is not converging.  Current: 3023.4180388808463 is not greater than 3023.464635876467. Delta is -0.04659699562080277
Model is not converging.  Current: 3026.9865848059508 is not greater than 3027.7835862441375. Delta is -0.7970014381867259
Model is not converging.  Current: 3023.0482376092814 is not greater than 3023.1460218050916. Delta is -0.09778419581016351
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 3089.669457809331 is not greater than 3089.7010943644864. Delta is -0.03163655515527353
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3181.6891340978777 is not greater than 3181.859481950237. Delta is -0.17034785235910022
Model is not converging.  Current: 3199.860711235556 is not greater than 3199.9074132619185. Delta is -0.0467020263622544
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 3174.639089546838 is not greater than 3174.7151503747564. Delta is -0.07606082791835433
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre:  80%|███████████▏  | 4/5 [04:05<01:05, 65.93s/it]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 3890.6662481213866 is not greater than 3890.674097956289. Delta is -0.007849834902572184
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 3941.0959690151367 is not greater than 3941.112508411742. Delta is -0.016539396605367074
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4112.861149281943 is not greater than 4112.974085179827. Delta is -0.11293589788419922
Model is not converging.  Current: 4128.059334281538 is not greater than 4128.1926002193995. Delta is -0.13326593786132435
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4158.883006062819 is not greater than 4158.889299902814. Delta is -0.006293839995123562
Model is not converging.  Current: 4173.839933784106 is not greater than 4173.847047367849. Delta is -0.007113583743375784
Model is not converging.  Current: 4190.557459287168 is not greater than 4190.686284676848. Delta is -0.12882538968005974
Model is not converging.  Current: 4209.3653306936185 is not greater than 4209.470917132482. Delta is -0.10558643886361097
Model is not converging.  Current: 4220.901633271439 is not greater than 4220.90417824356. Delta is -0.002544972120631428
Model is not converging.  Current: 4256.839475981176 is not greater than 4256.852894498882. Delta is -0.013418517705758859
Model is not converging.  Current: 4260.8666970924605 is not greater than 4260.95552275865. Delta is -0.08882566618922283
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4239.10008173196 is not greater than 4239.104802810604. Delta is -0.004721078644251975
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4291.46328847931 is not greater than 4291.487569668656. Delta is -0.024281189345856546
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4237.913190459847 is not greater than 4238.604569674161. Delta is -0.6913792143141109
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4234.862503768732 is not greater than 4235.037689070453. Delta is -0.1751853017212852
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4251.59323686935 is not greater than 4251.815820763569. Delta is -0.22258389421858737
Model is not converging.  Current: 4285.555163425568 is not greater than 4285.571724668624. Delta is -0.016561243055548402
Model is not converging.  Current: 4288.624265604494 is not greater than 4288.641196318418. Delta is -0.016930713924011798
Model is not converging.  Current: 4290.834102007808 is not greater than 4290.879783974471. Delta is -0.04568196666332369
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4213.688818202892 is not greater than 4213.80906713409. Delta is -0.12024893119723856
Model is not converging.  Current: 4270.978178777625 is not greater than 4270.985595302892. Delta is -0.0074165252672173665
Model is not converging.  Current: 4254.413982967948 is not greater than 4254.471513224124. Delta is -0.05753025617559615
Model is not converging.  Current: 4076.279629081278 is not greater than 4077.0532138778653. Delta is -0.773584796587329
Model is not converging.  Current: 4140.144712971105 is not greater than 4140.155632709041. Delta is -0.010919737936092133
Model is not converging.  Current: 4045.5765436004876 is not greater than 4045.90721701074. Delta is -0.3306734102525297
Model is not converging.  Current: 3985.2636933014496 is not greater than 3985.4454001633953. Delta is -0.18170686194571317
Model is not converging.  Current: 3945.1979728028164 is not greater than 3945.7245323709967. Delta is -0.5265595681803461
Model is not converging.  Current: 3888.1391347281274 is not greater than 3888.20129428387. Delta is -0.06215955574270993
Model is not converging.  Current: 3884.6198849373677 is not greater than 3884.675195417562. Delta is -0.05531048019429363
Model is not converging.  Current: 3838.132349510242 is not greater than 3838.1653888587175. Delta is -0.033039348475540464
Model is not converging.  Current: 3840.857020322539 is not greater than 3840.863462501726. Delta is -0.006442179187160946
Model is not converging.  Current: 3851.305490341922 is not greater than 3851.335841956689. Delta is -0.03035161476691428
Model is not converging.  Current: 3791.8080373114462 is not greater than 3791.846648086702. Delta is -0.038610775255619956
Model is not converging.  Current: 3759.08397950108 is not greater than 3759.113842411989. Delta is -0.02986291090883242
Model is not converging.  Current: 3759.1899610076516 is not greater than 3759.2609580665044. Delta is -0.07099705885275398
Model is not converging.  Current: 3724.707102878293 is not greater than 3724.9120630084967. Delta is -0.20496013020374448
Model is not converging.  Current: 3731.431613134746 is not greater than 3731.433794639742. Delta is -0.0021815049958604504
Model is not converging.  Current: 3738.7062168238053 is not greater than 3738.7282131494135. Delta is -0.021996325608142797
Model is not converging.  Current: 3712.007256628206 is not greater than 3712.5258575257567. Delta is -0.5186008975506411
Model is not converging.  Current: 3699.833483309091 is not greater than 3699.8408284402153. Delta is -0.007345131124111504
Model is not converging.  Current: 3666.465003186376 is not greater than 3666.4889611607837. Delta is -0.023957974407494476
Model is not converging.  Current: 3656.430095593298 is not greater than 3656.439703627136. Delta is -0.009608033838048868
Model is not converging.  Current: 3618.0374432010476 is not greater than 3618.157788430147. Delta is -0.12034522909925727
Model is not converging.  Current: 3602.1698797559475 is not greater than 3602.1716568072534. Delta is -0.001777051305907662
Model is not converging.  Current: 3608.5401337576295 is not greater than 3608.5626443615115. Delta is -0.022510603881983116
Model is not converging.  Current: 3575.970673208861 is not greater than 3575.9747656604527. Delta is -0.0040924515915321535
Model is not converging.  Current: 3598.1704123024974 is not greater than 3598.173314848616. Delta is -0.0029025461185483437
Model is not converging.  Current: 3639.7229310612092 is not greater than 3639.73813543357. Delta is -0.015204372360585694
Model is not converging.  Current: 3672.205815948532 is not greater than 3672.223828059367. Delta is -0.01801211083511589
Model is not converging.  Current: 3721.157360370578 is not greater than 3721.185184853043. Delta is -0.02782448246534841
Model is not converging.  Current: 3850.2933736711134 is not greater than 3850.3968601649917. Delta is -0.10348649387833575
Model is not converging.  Current: 3900.814592108461 is not greater than 3900.823730106064. Delta is -0.009137997602920223
Model is not converging.  Current: 3924.9404542498883 is not greater than 3925.2002993533224. Delta is -0.25984510343414513
Model is not converging.  Current: 3950.7220885096026 is not greater than 3950.7464829778864. Delta is -0.024394468283844617
Model is not converging.  Current: 3966.583545339078 is not greater than 3966.6266931036757. Delta is -0.04314776459796121
Model is not converging.  Current: 4017.1935028098137 is not greater than 4017.2134927019006. Delta is -0.019989892086869077
Model is not converging.  Current: 4002.1605724454666 is not greater than 4002.231126632586. Delta is -0.0705541871193418
Model is not converging.  Current: 4078.451645328837 is not greater than 4078.491151616845. Delta is -0.0395062880079422
Model is not converging.  Current: 4097.709228150831 is not greater than 4097.826739205999. Delta is -0.11751105516759708
Model is not converging.  Current: 4095.084650351316 is not greater than 4095.3310321286995. Delta is -0.24638177738324885
Model is not converging.  Current: 4107.901293015623 is not greater than 4108.378707669139. Delta is -0.47741465351555235
Model is not converging.  Current: 4127.66305567964 is not greater than 4127.719467863854. Delta is -0.05641218421442318
Model is not converging.  Current: 4130.242156446758 is not greater than 4130.827892430835. Delta is -0.5857359840774734
Model is not converging.  Current: 4131.108991400632 is not greater than 4131.471571239102. Delta is -0.3625798384700829
Model is not converging.  Current: 4124.128234283959 is not greater than 4124.360595592178. Delta is -0.2323613082189695
Model is not converging.  Current: 4139.771610360822 is not greater than 4139.799445255088. Delta is -0.027834894266561605
Model is not converging.  Current: 4138.591554132175 is not greater than 4138.832854827574. Delta is -0.24130069539933174
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4146.020086738028 is not greater than 4146.177603448393. Delta is -0.15751671036468906
Model is not converging.  Current: 4168.551568218078 is not greater than 4168.603976783532. Delta is -0.05240856545424322
Model is not converging.  Current: 4185.95933060909 is not greater than 4186.050529495775. Delta is -0.09119888668465137
Model is not converging.  Current: 4200.888299433765 is not greater than 4200.924282999855. Delta is -0.03598356609018083
Model is not converging.  Current: 4208.390814320875 is not greater than 4208.766412946489. Delta is -0.37559862561465707
Model is not converging.  Current: 4198.040155057916 is not greater than 4198.178725081009. Delta is -0.13857002309305244
Model is not converging.  Current: 4167.81609750443 is not greater than 4167.865524941272. Delta is -0.049427436842051975
Model is not converging.  Current: 4188.389704659737 is not greater than 4188.4191901264185. Delta is -0.029485466681762773
Model is not converging.  Current: 4175.707721114779 is not greater than 4175.82344816203. Delta is -0.11572704725131189
Model is not converging.  Current: 4157.438785393951 is not greater than 4157.445477228046. Delta is -0.006691834095363447
Model is not converging.  Current: 4140.340814722993 is not greater than 4140.373464538552. Delta is -0.03264981555912527
Model is not converging.  Current: 4137.09294594046 is not greater than 4137.221267826176. Delta is -0.1283218857161046
Model is not converging.  Current: 4133.269501097696 is not greater than 4133.584183170825. Delta is -0.3146820731290063
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4145.319421313881 is not greater than 4145.36104388737. Delta is -0.04162257348889398
Model is not converging.  Current: 4184.21691063837 is not greater than 4184.301877427098. Delta is -0.0849667887277974
Model is not converging.  Current: 4204.371572833149 is not greater than 4204.530470486319. Delta is -0.15889765317024285
Model is not converging.  Current: 4226.853820330911 is not greater than 4226.868900370702. Delta is -0.015080039791428135
Model is not converging.  Current: 4249.516108607164 is not greater than 4249.5837992586075. Delta is -0.06769065144362685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 4279.476247794528 is not greater than 4279.543630563445. Delta is -0.06738276891701389
Model is not converging.  Current: 4293.483825272632 is not greater than 4294.067826662266. Delta is -0.5840013896340679
Model is not converging.  Current: 4293.154531807573 is not greater than 4293.533014942177. Delta is -0.3784831346038118
Model is not converging.  Current: 4295.718172443971 is not greater than 4295.75082533568. Delta is -0.032652891709403775
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 4340.272332208031 is not greater than 4341.234159883163. Delta is -0.9618276751316444
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 4399.279801178131 is not greater than 4401.6458055659095. Delta is -2.3660043877789576
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 4412.383661672908 is not greater than 4412.399512648592. Delta is -0.01585097568386118
Model is not converging.  Current: 4386.308045737729 is not greater than 4386.5007917348885. Delta is -0.19274599715936347
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4396.29726748203 is not greater than 4396.305450028038. Delta is -0.008182546007446945
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 4396.314294686579 is not greater than 4396.717519208686. Delta is -0.4032245221069388
Model is not converging.  Current: 4408.580277815243 is not greater than 4408.668106008409. Delta is -0.08782819316638779
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4416.769334549075 is not greater than 4417.020575424224. Delta is -0.25124087514905113
Model is not converging.  Current: 4411.366227544495 is not greater than 4411.370682072522. Delta is -0.004454528027054039
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4387.312816545826 is not greater than 4387.511608029764. Delta is -0.19879148393829382
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4371.060089918384 is not greater than 4371.067321551293. Delta is -0.00723163290967932
Model is not converging.  Current: 4382.00786028061 is not greater than 4382.070065760267. Delta is -0.06220547965767764
Model is not converging.  Current: 4369.926017764179 is not greater than 4370.2282736640855. Delta is -0.3022558999064131
Model is not converging.  Current: 4358.305500862716 is not greater than 4358.332974776501. Delta is -0.027473913784888282
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3787: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:163: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:198: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in scalar divide
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 4350.984447244536 is not greater than 4351.075398090779. Delta is -0.0909508462436861
Model is not converging.  Current: 4349.158766816959 is not greater than 4349.186294577683. Delta is -0.027527760724296968
Model is not converging.  Current: 4366.431268045115 is not greater than 4366.631189429365. Delta is -0.19992138425004669
Model is not converging.  Current: 4382.623556315292 is not greater than 4382.6673343275015. Delta is -0.04377801220925903
Model is not converging.  Current: 4365.85838217982 is not greater than 4365.898007599267. Delta is -0.0396254194465655
Model is not converging.  Current: 4324.373266514783 is not greater than 4324.42784297148. Delta is -0.05457645669685007
Model is not converging.  Current: 4260.095865161051 is not greater than 4260.104493487399. Delta is -0.008628326348116389
Model is not converging.  Current: 4206.665232865255 is not greater than 4207.201371626418. Delta is -0.5361387611628743
Model is not converging.  Current: 4258.751845952809 is not greater than 4258.753500859667. Delta is -0.0016549068577660364
Model is not converging.  Current: 4126.746607702169 is not greater than 4126.850276626147. Delta is -0.10366892397814809
Model is not converging.  Current: 4113.364988309429 is not greater than 4113.410079741696. Delta is -0.045091432267327036
Model is not converging.  Current: 3925.8188679870054 is not greater than 3925.844337048405. Delta is -0.025469061399689963
Model is not converging.  Current: 3877.71639825615 is not greater than 3877.730280701946. Delta is -0.013882445795843523
Model is not converging.  Current: 3811.640225386131 is not greater than 3811.8095962485777. Delta is -0.1693708624466126
Model is not converging.  Current: 3820.596142986753 is not greater than 3821.022078338395. Delta is -0.42593535164223795
Model is not converging.  Current: 3839.7927066648826 is not greater than 3840.023399864705. Delta is -0.23069319982232628
Model is not converging.  Current: 3842.128529540867 is not greater than 3842.13148040843. Delta is -0.0029508675629585923
Model is not converging.  Current: 3910.0792136697637 is not greater than 3910.0797594644914. Delta is -0.0005457947277136554
Model is not converging.  Current: 3840.3136097917636 is not greater than 3840.345952887669. Delta is -0.032343095905162045
Model is not converging.  Current: 3846.820361727736 is not greater than 3846.9803640857785. Delta is -0.16000235804267504
Model is not converging.  Current: 3877.023977905258 is not greater than 3877.0484368621055. Delta is -0.024458956847411173
Model is not converging.  Current: 3870.5871176368446 is not greater than 3870.723803055761. Delta is -0.13668541891638597
Model is not converging.  Current: 3887.5233404522983 is not greater than 3887.539939006127. Delta is -0.0165985538287714
Model is not converging.  Current: 3880.534736869652 is not greater than 3880.8868211428844. Delta is -0.3520842732323217
Model is not converging.  Current: 3882.5571311480503 is not greater than 3882.693498193363. Delta is -0.13636704531290889
Model is not converging.  Current: 3882.480588383458 is not greater than 3882.4956101510784. Delta is -0.015021767620510218
Model is not converging.  Current: 3879.283906078458 is not greater than 3879.296500759889. Delta is -0.012594681430982746
🔍 Optimisation de la fenêtre: 100%|██████████████| 5/5 [05:35<00:00, 67.02s/it]

🏆 Meilleure taille de rolling window : 500 jours

HMM test Static

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm
import yfinance as yf

# 📥 Données
data = yf.download('^GSPC', start='2000-01-01', end='2025-04-01')
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data.dropna(inplace=True)
returns = data['Log_Returns'].values.reshape(-1, 1)

# ⚙️ Paramètres
rolling_window = 500
refit_every = 3
n_states = 4

positions = []
dates = []
returns_strategy = []
panic_flags = []

model = None
remap = None
last_state = None
last_transmat = None

# Panic mode
panic_mode = False
panic_timer = 0

# 🔁 Boucle principale
for t in tqdm(range(rolling_window, len(returns) - 1), desc="📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode"):

    window_returns = returns[t - rolling_window:t]

    if (t - rolling_window) % refit_every == 0:
        try:
            model = GaussianHMM(n_components=n_states, covariance_type='full', n_iter=100)
            model.fit(window_returns)

            if np.any(model.transmat_.sum(axis=1) == 0):
                continue

            viterbi = model.predict(window_returns)
            vols = [np.var(window_returns[viterbi == i]) for i in range(n_states)]
            order = np.argsort(vols)
            remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(order)}
            last_state = remap[viterbi[-1]]
            last_transmat = model.transmat_[order][:, order]
        except:
            continue

    if model is None or last_transmat is None:
        continue

    # 🔍 Analyse marché récente
    rolling_vol = np.std(returns[t-20:t]) * np.sqrt(252)
    recent_return = np.mean(returns[t-5:t])

    # 🔥 Panic Mode déclenchement
    if not panic_mode and rolling_vol > 0.6 and recent_return < -0.01:
        panic_mode = True
        panic_timer = 30
        print(f"🛑 Panic mode ACTIVÉ le {data.index[t]}")

    # 🔓 Désactivation
    elif panic_mode:
        if (rolling_vol < 0.3 and recent_return > 0) or panic_timer <= 0:
            panic_mode = False
            print(f"✅ Panic mode DÉSACTIVÉ le {data.index[t]}")
        else:
            panic_timer -= 1

    # ⚖️ Position
    if panic_mode:
        pos = 0  # 🛑 full cash
        panic_flags.append(1)
    else:
        proba_next = last_transmat[last_state]
        pos = proba_next[0]*1 + proba_next[1]*0.5 + proba_next[2]*(-0.5) + proba_next[3]*(-1)
        last_state = np.argmax(proba_next)
        panic_flags.append(0)

    r_tomorrow = data['Log_Returns'].iloc[t + 1]
    returns_strategy.append(pos * r_tomorrow)
    positions.append(pos)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])

# 📊 Résultats
df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Panic_Mode': panic_flags
}).set_index('Date')

df['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df.index]).cumprod()

# 📈 Graphe de perf + panic zone
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
plt.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Market'], linestyle='--', color='gray', label='Buy & Hold')
plt.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Strategy'], color='brown', label='Stratégie HMM pondérée + Panic Mode')

for i in range(len(df)):
    if df['Panic_Mode'].iloc[i] == 1:
        plt.axvline(df.index[i], color='red', alpha=0.02)

plt.title("Stratégie HMM pondérée (4 régimes) + Panic Mode")
plt.ylabel("Capital (base 1)")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 📊 Statistiques finales
mean = df['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol = df['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)

print("\n📊 Résultats finaux :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé : {mean:.2%}")

print(f"Volatilité annualisée : {vol:.2f}")

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   0%|                                                                                                                                               | 0/5847 [00:00<?, ?it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.5072509638278 is not greater than 1446.764777477584. Delta is -0.2575265137561473
Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.1188205712363 is not greater than 1446.1293105021546. Delta is -0.010489930918311074
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   0%|▏                                                                                                                                      | 7/5847 [00:00<01:36, 60.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.2906844694546 is not greater than 1446.3137472714266. Delta is -0.0230628019719461
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1451.0875434079758 is not greater than 1451.686427632731. Delta is -0.5988842247552384
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1449.6796854182353 is not greater than 1449.840461060999. Delta is -0.16077564276361045
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   0%|▎                                                                                                                                     | 16/5847 [00:00<01:15, 76.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1443.2417547954262 is not greater than 1443.5451786277665. Delta is -0.303423832340286
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1447.1784695622598 is not greater than 1447.3983111484472. Delta is -0.21984158618738547
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.2933851743305 is not greater than 1446.406776949906. Delta is -0.11339177557556468
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1449.326238442056 is not greater than 1449.486870115003. Delta is -0.1606316729471473
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   0%|▋                                                                                                                                     | 28/5847 [00:00<01:10, 82.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1445.0001670643703 is not greater than 1445.3848546169856. Delta is -0.3846875526153326
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1449.2051530350504 is not greater than 1449.3908431549874. Delta is -0.18569011993690765
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   1%|▊                                                                                                                                     | 37/5847 [00:00<01:12, 80.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1441.5200333777598 is not greater than 1441.7650927338084. Delta is -0.24505935604861406
Model is not converging.  Current: 1453.0264075656062 is not greater than 1453.6132737477144. Delta is -0.5868661821082242
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1445.8437867530565 is not greater than 1445.9916289393861. Delta is -0.1478421863296262
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   1%|█                                                                                                                                     | 49/5847 [00:00<01:06, 86.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1446.946479116369 is not greater than 1446.9660446719759. Delta is -0.019565555606959606
Model is not converging.  Current: 1462.6052030193725 is not greater than 1462.7605188080165. Delta is -0.15531578864397488
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1456.4400259458732 is not greater than 1456.4751967011791. Delta is -0.03517075530589864
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1455.3964995372028 is not greater than 1455.4610791725036. Delta is -0.06457963530078814
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   1%|█▍                                                                                                                                    | 61/5847 [00:00<01:06, 87.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1462.3962000926274 is not greater than 1462.4376892126902. Delta is -0.04148912006280625
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1454.246710026718 is not greater than 1454.2485546856612. Delta is -0.0018446589433551708
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1471.4506326742953 is not greater than 1472.3614473034743. Delta is -0.9108146291789581
Model is not converging.  Current: 1465.3726796063881 is not greater than 1465.497500393181. Delta is -0.12482078679295228
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   1%|█▋                                                                                                                                    | 73/5847 [00:00<01:05, 87.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1474.081420098087 is not greater than 1474.1301311778311. Delta is -0.0487110797441801
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1479.7822730833602 is not greater than 1479.8827544572898. Delta is -0.10048137392959688
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1475.6803526056374 is not greater than 1476.091289284425. Delta is -0.41093667878772067
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   1%|█▉                                                                                                                                    | 82/5847 [00:00<01:06, 86.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1476.8294404858125 is not greater than 1477.2259497504162. Delta is -0.3965092646037647
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.4228652637098 is not greater than 1477.6053294188184. Delta is -0.1824641551086188
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1467.7192720338758 is not greater than 1467.746066625212. Delta is -0.026794591336283702
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   2%|██                                                                                                                                    | 91/5847 [00:01<01:08, 84.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1470.4891127958483 is not greater than 1470.7864371300473. Delta is -0.2973243341989473
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1478.488487147221 is not greater than 1478.6100023665063. Delta is -0.12151521928535658
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   2%|██▎                                                                                                                                  | 100/5847 [00:01<01:08, 84.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.6930189655698 is not greater than 1481.7528595380327. Delta is -0.05984057246291741
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1480.3807692881494 is not greater than 1480.5537100391423. Delta is -0.1729407509928933
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1479.52230672649 is not greater than 1479.8905607782788. Delta is -0.36825405178888104
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   2%|██▍                                                                                                                                  | 109/5847 [00:01<01:08, 83.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   2%|██▋                                                                                                                                  | 118/5847 [00:01<01:14, 76.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1476.375715315282 is not greater than 1476.4069747668866. Delta is -0.03125945160468291
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1476.6780501642136 is not greater than 1477.174719341732. Delta is -0.49666917751846995
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1471.3167619449127 is not greater than 1471.6588223314372. Delta is -0.34206038652450843
Model is not converging.  Current: 1463.2219813650452 is not greater than 1463.240612404504. Delta is -0.018631039458796295
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   2%|██▉                                                                                                                                  | 130/5847 [00:01<01:10, 80.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1459.1236952890208 is not greater than 1459.148477663821. Delta is -0.024782374800224716
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1463.5658328464317 is not greater than 1463.7327792379772. Delta is -0.16694639154547986
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1443.063098313674 is not greater than 1443.0838467184306. Delta is -0.02074840475665951
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   2%|███▏                                                                                                                                 | 139/5847 [00:01<01:08, 82.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1443.5153379794795 is not greater than 1443.5519175891504. Delta is -0.03657960967098006
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1439.3799183074186 is not greater than 1439.56857381251. Delta is -0.18865550509144668
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   3%|███▎                                                                                                                                 | 148/5847 [00:01<01:09, 81.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1429.6207909089517 is not greater than 1430.1609093908314. Delta is -0.5401184818797446
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   3%|███▌                                                                                                                                 | 157/5847 [00:01<01:14, 76.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1425.3042497464187 is not greater than 1425.3291377685919. Delta is -0.02488802217317243
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   3%|███▊                                                                                                                                 | 169/5847 [00:02<01:09, 82.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1409.5965197558942 is not greater than 1409.6028480353243. Delta is -0.006328279430135808
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   3%|████                                                                                                                                 | 178/5847 [00:02<01:09, 81.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1414.6724246388576 is not greater than 1415.0023408794666. Delta is -0.32991624060900904
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1400.053196126657 is not greater than 1400.0756244982197. Delta is -0.022428371562682514
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   3%|████▎                                                                                                                                | 190/5847 [00:02<01:08, 82.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1395.5406022931654 is not greater than 1395.6783240735829. Delta is -0.13772178041745065
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1389.735545903698 is not greater than 1389.737905171676. Delta is -0.00235926797790853
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1386.4309724914137 is not greater than 1386.472748986763. Delta is -0.04177649534926786
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   3%|████▌                                                                                                                                | 199/5847 [00:02<01:07, 84.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1383.8622301016 is not greater than 1383.9014397940123. Delta is -0.03920969241221428
Model is not converging.  Current: 1381.9536595603386 is not greater than 1381.958237220145. Delta is -0.004577659806500378
Model is not converging.  Current: 1408.6219832912632 is not greater than 1408.7196714766144. Delta is -0.09768818535121682
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1416.2350929355562 is not greater than 1416.2380918309616. Delta is -0.002998895405426083
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   4%|████▊                                                                                                                                | 211/5847 [00:02<01:05, 86.06it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1389.5228821046292 is not greater than 1389.5489842288998. Delta is -0.026102124270664717
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1384.1547337051559 is not greater than 1384.296300399158. Delta is -0.141566694002222
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   4%|█████                                                                                                                                | 220/5847 [00:02<01:05, 85.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1375.9812937278425 is not greater than 1376.0125129440253. Delta is -0.031219216182762466
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   4%|█████▎                                                                                                                               | 232/5847 [00:02<01:07, 83.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1411.82564282702 is not greater than 1412.2915856692885. Delta is -0.46594284226853233
Model is not converging.  Current: 1390.029567912419 is not greater than 1390.03157144879. Delta is -0.0020035363709212106
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   4%|█████▍                                                                                                                               | 241/5847 [00:02<01:06, 84.65it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1399.9918003030755 is not greater than 1400.0256508701934. Delta is -0.03385056711795187
Model is not converging.  Current: 1411.3096534858068 is not greater than 1411.4368973159253. Delta is -0.1272438301184593
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   4%|█████▋                                                                                                                               | 250/5847 [00:03<01:08, 82.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1416.2866655371263 is not greater than 1416.66384558053. Delta is -0.37718004340376865
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1393.3539046214196 is not greater than 1393.5067432143435. Delta is -0.15283859292389934
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   4%|█████▉                                                                                                                               | 262/5847 [00:03<01:06, 83.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1393.7207747559523 is not greater than 1393.7292430134585. Delta is -0.008468257506137888
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   5%|██████▏                                                                                                                              | 271/5847 [00:03<01:07, 82.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1406.4598490749167 is not greater than 1406.5564525328798. Delta is -0.09660345796305592
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   5%|██████▎                                                                                                                              | 280/5847 [00:03<01:10, 78.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1390.8007959841823 is not greater than 1390.8966334258719. Delta is -0.09583744168958219
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   5%|██████▌                                                                                                                              | 289/5847 [00:03<01:19, 70.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1392.3725311239095 is not greater than 1392.4939745375584. Delta is -0.12144341364887623
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   5%|██████▊                                                                                                                              | 298/5847 [00:03<01:17, 71.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1393.3574093579346 is not greater than 1393.4363833496284. Delta is -0.0789739916938288
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1401.1804246423171 is not greater than 1401.3800202696648. Delta is -0.19959562734766223
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1413.0786215858323 is not greater than 1413.0794237186694. Delta is -0.0008021328371796699
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   5%|███████                                                                                                                              | 310/5847 [00:03<01:12, 76.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1418.1532817282916 is not greater than 1418.2036988238297. Delta is -0.050417095538023204
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   5%|███████▎                                                                                                                             | 319/5847 [00:03<01:12, 76.20it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|███████▍                                                                                                                             | 327/5847 [00:04<01:17, 71.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1424.7920185576284 is not greater than 1424.7920330669228. Delta is -1.4509294487652369e-05
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1418.1187198757991 is not greater than 1418.2161165396994. Delta is -0.09739666390032653
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|███████▌                                                                                                                             | 335/5847 [00:04<01:16, 72.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1423.5677105032348 is not greater than 1423.608454000376. Delta is -0.040743497141193075
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|███████▊                                                                                                                             | 343/5847 [00:04<01:29, 61.62it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1420.0326021580322 is not greater than 1420.2797781577929. Delta is -0.24717599976065685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|████████                                                                                                                             | 352/5847 [00:04<01:20, 68.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1424.066459482559 is not greater than 1424.0724806940173. Delta is -0.006021211458346443
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|████████▏                                                                                                                            | 360/5847 [00:04<01:18, 70.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1401.1846307831386 is not greater than 1401.191825857146. Delta is -0.007195074007313451
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|████████▎                                                                                                                            | 368/5847 [00:04<01:26, 63.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1393.6101188035204 is not greater than 1393.6205307855203. Delta is -0.010411981999823183
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   6%|████████▌                                                                                                                            | 376/5847 [00:04<01:26, 63.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|████████▋                                                                                                                            | 383/5847 [00:04<01:31, 59.52it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|████████▉                                                                                                                            | 391/5847 [00:05<01:27, 62.00it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1417.8502186060425 is not greater than 1417.85122567811. Delta is -0.0010070720675230405
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▏                                                                                                                           | 403/5847 [00:05<01:18, 69.30it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▎                                                                                                                           | 412/5847 [00:05<01:21, 66.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1402.5305007266281 is not greater than 1402.5552052880525. Delta is -0.02470456142441435
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▌                                                                                                                           | 421/5847 [00:05<01:23, 64.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1436.4755230537266 is not greater than 1436.4761325876486. Delta is -0.000609533921988259
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1400.4597009761085 is not greater than 1400.4822533449803. Delta is -0.022552368871856743
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▊                                                                                                                           | 430/5847 [00:05<01:18, 68.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1439.927084986605 is not greater than 1440.0127694773928. Delta is -0.0856844907877985
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   7%|█████████▉                                                                                                                           | 437/5847 [00:05<01:20, 67.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|██████████                                                                                                                           | 445/5847 [00:05<01:19, 67.94it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▎                                                                                                                          | 454/5847 [00:06<01:19, 67.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1426.0969028267834 is not greater than 1426.1098346928552. Delta is -0.012931866071767217
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1452.5934367995599 is not greater than 1453.686866927717. Delta is -1.0934301281570242
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▌                                                                                                                          | 463/5847 [00:06<01:17, 69.20it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▋                                                                                                                          | 470/5847 [00:06<01:18, 68.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1428.15418412389 is not greater than 1428.185338739371. Delta is -0.031154615481000292
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|██████████▊                                                                                                                          | 477/5847 [00:06<01:30, 59.50it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|███████████                                                                                                                          | 484/5847 [00:06<01:53, 47.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|███████████▏                                                                                                                         | 490/5847 [00:06<01:47, 49.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   8%|███████████▎                                                                                                                         | 496/5847 [00:06<01:49, 48.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1432.802946560008 is not greater than 1432.8346511665172. Delta is -0.03170460650926543
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▍                                                                                                                         | 502/5847 [00:06<01:51, 47.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1453.4568719954434 is not greater than 1454.142628953145. Delta is -0.685756957701642
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▌                                                                                                                         | 508/5847 [00:07<01:45, 50.41it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▋                                                                                                                         | 514/5847 [00:07<02:00, 44.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▊                                                                                                                         | 520/5847 [00:07<01:54, 46.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|███████████▉                                                                                                                         | 526/5847 [00:07<01:51, 47.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1466.0293637537259 is not greater than 1466.0397468215317. Delta is -0.01038306780583298
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|████████████                                                                                                                         | 531/5847 [00:07<01:52, 47.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1466.4333651397392 is not greater than 1466.4503121720675. Delta is -0.016947032328289424
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|████████████▏                                                                                                                        | 536/5847 [00:07<01:55, 45.94it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|████████████▎                                                                                                                        | 541/5847 [00:07<02:07, 41.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1444.8905477607002 is not greater than 1444.8908870267192. Delta is -0.0003392660189547314
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:   9%|████████████▍                                                                                                                        | 547/5847 [00:07<01:54, 46.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1471.0071732759745 is not greater than 1472.209005717345. Delta is -1.2018324413704704
Model is not converging.  Current: 1438.4259589831315 is not greater than 1438.5370322942256. Delta is -0.11107331109406005
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|████████████▋                                                                                                                        | 556/5847 [00:08<01:40, 52.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|████████████▊                                                                                                                        | 565/5847 [00:08<01:34, 56.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1479.6131551051267 is not greater than 1479.6810504673733. Delta is -0.06789536224664516
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|█████████████                                                                                                                        | 574/5847 [00:08<01:26, 61.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|█████████████▏                                                                                                                       | 581/5847 [00:08<01:25, 61.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.0779605198898 is not greater than 1483.4140740715568. Delta is -0.33611355166704016
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|█████████████▍                                                                                                                       | 589/5847 [00:08<01:22, 64.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1432.7651649498687 is not greater than 1432.8406250770013. Delta is -0.07546012713260097
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|█████████████▌                                                                                                                       | 598/5847 [00:08<01:17, 67.94it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.5492788822594 is not greater than 1493.4893198923003. Delta is -0.9400410100408862
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.9896858358952 is not greater than 1491.1143765204133. Delta is -0.12469068451810017
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  10%|█████████████▊                                                                                                                       | 607/5847 [00:08<01:18, 66.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|█████████████▉                                                                                                                       | 614/5847 [00:08<01:19, 65.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1500.4197740147201 is not greater than 1500.4883924990236. Delta is -0.06861848430344253
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1457.7875815857237 is not greater than 1457.8169644170005. Delta is -0.029382831276734578
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▏                                                                                                                      | 622/5847 [00:09<01:16, 68.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1512.3316138759421 is not greater than 1512.3588781956391. Delta is -0.02726431969699661
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1455.7087800190875 is not greater than 1455.9479347059669. Delta is -0.2391546868793739
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1513.2439257243873 is not greater than 1513.2800660124424. Delta is -0.03614028805509406
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▎                                                                                                                      | 631/5847 [00:09<01:10, 73.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1467.7675107501138 is not greater than 1467.7986776871292. Delta is -0.031166937015314033
Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.300252506637 is not greater than 1529.4779973436787. Delta is -0.17774483704170052
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▌                                                                                                                      | 640/5847 [00:09<01:12, 71.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.3761721825394 is not greater than 1536.5632940237172. Delta is -0.18712184117771358
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.9028678058312 is not greater than 1545.2173469094855. Delta is -0.3144791036543211
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▊                                                                                                                      | 649/5847 [00:09<01:12, 72.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.4825999840868 is not greater than 1516.662238583177. Delta is -0.1796385990901399
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.0968544405969 is not greater than 1517.1482824749946. Delta is -0.05142803439775889
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.4619237522586 is not greater than 1539.5634006282623. Delta is -0.10147687600374411
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|██████████████▉                                                                                                                      | 658/5847 [00:09<01:08, 75.36it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  11%|███████████████▏                                                                                                                     | 667/5847 [00:09<01:10, 73.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.3276481592904 is not greater than 1524.3783617548597. Delta is -0.05071359556927746
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1568.0345888972163 is not greater than 1568.035769667516. Delta is -0.0011807702996975422
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1569.2121601781523 is not greater than 1571.5243526163356. Delta is -2.312192438183274
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████▍                                                                                                                     | 676/5847 [00:09<01:06, 77.98it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1576.091582913793 is not greater than 1576.272291293984. Delta is -0.1807083801909357
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████▌                                                                                                                     | 685/5847 [00:09<01:07, 76.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.0871209719417 is not greater than 1581.1296660443054. Delta is -0.042545072363736836
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████▊                                                                                                                     | 694/5847 [00:10<01:10, 73.54it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1593.8637425650948 is not greater than 1593.8997284809411. Delta is -0.03598591584636779
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|███████████████▉                                                                                                                     | 702/5847 [00:10<01:09, 74.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1604.7441942848338 is not greater than 1604.8616616837767. Delta is -0.11746739894283564
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1606.4079934827548 is not greater than 1606.6779630837138. Delta is -0.2699696009590298
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|████████████████▏                                                                                                                    | 712/5847 [00:10<01:09, 74.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1614.350291078181 is not greater than 1616.4233682674408. Delta is -2.0730771892597204
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1615.1327761995608 is not greater than 1615.153454503278. Delta is -0.02067830371720447
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|████████████████▍                                                                                                                    | 721/5847 [00:10<01:07, 75.98it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1594.990889048544 is not greater than 1595.0234625166352. Delta is -0.03257346809118644
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  12%|████████████████▌                                                                                                                    | 730/5847 [00:10<01:05, 78.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1626.5495869106182 is not greater than 1627.5082209160714. Delta is -0.9586340054531775
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1628.086407867654 is not greater than 1628.413500130652. Delta is -0.32709226299789407
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1630.1946999917818 is not greater than 1630.2250721268. Delta is -0.030372135018069457
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  13%|████████████████▊                                                                                                                    | 739/5847 [00:10<01:05, 77.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.2836289393936 is not greater than 1635.488115353617. Delta is -0.2044864142235383
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.4919831172688 is not greater than 1635.5320296002878. Delta is -0.040046483019068546
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1636.139957251357 is not greater than 1636.2985002425592. Delta is -0.15854299120223914
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  13%|█████████████████                                                                                                                    | 748/5847 [00:10<01:02, 80.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.0999007298437 is not greater than 1640.1032423106492. Delta is -1.0033415808054542
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1646.8896683558473 is not greater than 1647.613312868482. Delta is -0.7236445126345643
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  13%|█████████████████▏                                                                                                                   | 757/5847 [00:10<01:03, 79.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1665.113654283086 is not greater than 1666.1504040787622. Delta is -1.0367497956763145
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  13%|█████████████████▍                                                                                                                   | 766/5847 [00:10<01:01, 82.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1654.4070975270768 is not greater than 1656.3461308010603. Delta is -1.9390332739835685
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  13%|█████████████████▋                                                                                                                   | 775/5847 [00:11<01:00, 83.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.3271261906655 is not greater than 1667.5646572104356. Delta is -0.23753101977013102
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  13%|█████████████████▊                                                                                                                   | 784/5847 [00:11<01:02, 81.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1678.080270070745 is not greater than 1678.0842809711883. Delta is -0.004010900443290666
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1662.2780104473543 is not greater than 1662.2918297550136. Delta is -0.01381930765933248
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1679.268688710257 is not greater than 1679.7416065186783. Delta is -0.47291780842124354
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  14%|██████████████████                                                                                                                   | 793/5847 [00:11<01:02, 81.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.389865823515 is not greater than 1663.8275259556522. Delta is -0.4376601321371254
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  14%|██████████████████▏                                                                                                                  | 802/5847 [00:11<01:04, 77.82it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  14%|██████████████████▍                                                                                                                  | 811/5847 [00:11<01:02, 80.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  14%|██████████████████▋                                                                                                                  | 823/5847 [00:11<00:59, 84.31it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  14%|██████████████████▉                                                                                                                  | 834/5847 [00:11<00:55, 91.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  14%|███████████████████▏                                                                                                                 | 844/5847 [00:11<00:59, 83.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  15%|███████████████████▍                                                                                                                 | 853/5847 [00:11<00:59, 84.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  15%|███████████████████▌                                                                                                                 | 862/5847 [00:12<00:59, 83.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  15%|███████████████████▉                                                                                                                 | 874/5847 [00:12<00:57, 87.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  15%|████████████████████                                                                                                                 | 883/5847 [00:12<00:57, 87.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  15%|████████████████████▎                                                                                                                | 892/5847 [00:12<00:58, 85.19it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  15%|████████████████████▌                                                                                                                | 904/5847 [00:12<00:55, 89.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  16%|████████████████████▊                                                                                                                | 913/5847 [00:12<00:55, 89.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  16%|█████████████████████                                                                                                                | 925/5847 [00:12<00:54, 90.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  16%|█████████████████████▎                                                                                                               | 935/5847 [00:12<00:55, 88.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  16%|█████████████████████▌                                                                                                               | 946/5847 [00:13<00:55, 88.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  16%|█████████████████████▋                                                                                                               | 955/5847 [00:13<00:55, 87.70it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  17%|█████████████████████▉                                                                                                               | 967/5847 [00:13<00:55, 87.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  17%|██████████████████████▏                                                                                                              | 976/5847 [00:13<00:55, 87.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  17%|██████████████████████▍                                                                                                              | 985/5847 [00:13<00:56, 85.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  17%|██████████████████████▋                                                                                                              | 997/5847 [00:13<00:54, 89.56it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  17%|██████████████████████▋                                                                                                             | 1006/5847 [00:13<00:54, 88.59it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  17%|██████████████████████▉                                                                                                             | 1015/5847 [00:13<00:57, 84.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  18%|███████████████████████                                                                                                             | 1024/5847 [00:13<00:57, 83.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  18%|███████████████████████▍                                                                                                            | 1036/5847 [00:14<00:53, 89.56it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  18%|███████████████████████▌                                                                                                            | 1045/5847 [00:14<00:55, 86.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  18%|███████████████████████▊                                                                                                            | 1054/5847 [00:14<00:55, 86.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  18%|███████████████████████▉                                                                                                            | 1063/5847 [00:14<00:57, 82.62it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  18%|████████████████████████▎                                                                                                           | 1075/5847 [00:14<00:55, 86.31it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|████████████████████████▍                                                                                                           | 1084/5847 [00:14<00:59, 79.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|████████████████████████▋                                                                                                           | 1093/5847 [00:14<01:02, 76.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|████████████████████████▊                                                                                                           | 1101/5847 [00:14<01:04, 74.07it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|█████████████████████████                                                                                                           | 1109/5847 [00:15<01:10, 67.68it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|█████████████████████████▏                                                                                                          | 1116/5847 [00:15<01:09, 68.07it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|█████████████████████████▎                                                                                                          | 1123/5847 [00:15<01:18, 60.49it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  19%|█████████████████████████▌                                                                                                          | 1130/5847 [00:15<01:15, 62.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|█████████████████████████▊                                                                                                          | 1141/5847 [00:15<01:06, 70.49it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|█████████████████████████▉                                                                                                          | 1150/5847 [00:15<01:05, 71.20it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|██████████████████████████▏                                                                                                         | 1158/5847 [00:15<01:05, 71.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|██████████████████████████▎                                                                                                         | 1166/5847 [00:15<01:07, 69.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|██████████████████████████▌                                                                                                         | 1174/5847 [00:15<01:04, 72.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|██████████████████████████▋                                                                                                         | 1183/5847 [00:16<01:01, 76.07it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  20%|██████████████████████████▉                                                                                                         | 1192/5847 [00:16<00:59, 77.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  21%|███████████████████████████                                                                                                         | 1201/5847 [00:16<00:58, 79.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  21%|███████████████████████████▎                                                                                                        | 1210/5847 [00:16<00:57, 81.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  21%|███████████████████████████▌                                                                                                        | 1222/5847 [00:16<00:50, 91.56it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  21%|███████████████████████████▊                                                                                                        | 1232/5847 [00:16<00:49, 92.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  21%|████████████████████████████                                                                                                        | 1242/5847 [00:16<00:50, 90.62it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  21%|████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                       | 1252/5847 [00:16<00:56, 80.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  22%|████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                       | 1261/5847 [00:16<00:55, 82.21it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  22%|████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                       | 1273/5847 [00:17<00:54, 84.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  22%|████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                       | 1282/5847 [00:17<00:53, 85.89it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  22%|█████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                      | 1294/5847 [00:17<00:50, 91.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1768.4428402915355 is not greater than 1768.9945980432624. Delta is -0.5517577517268819
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1797.1479788333745 is not greater than 1797.5349034885962. Delta is -0.38692465522171915
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1793.2580508590324 is not greater than 1793.7544270508786. Delta is -0.4963761918461387
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  22%|█████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                      | 1306/5847 [00:17<00:48, 93.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1732.765528195402 is not greater than 1732.8621886147446. Delta is -0.09666041934247005
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1762.7560166139856 is not greater than 1763.3752482557657. Delta is -0.6192316417800612
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1731.6440772368376 is not greater than 1731.6655884649335. Delta is -0.021511228095960178
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1762.0599650215593 is not greater than 1762.2341417341943. Delta is -0.17417671263501688
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|█████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                      | 1318/5847 [00:17<00:47, 94.92it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1792.9765135440734 is not greater than 1793.1218484341357. Delta is -0.14533489006225864
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1764.4203030218289 is not greater than 1765.2169411034386. Delta is -0.7966380816096716
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|█████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                      | 1328/5847 [00:17<00:49, 91.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1797.7220658724273 is not greater than 1797.8673348676791. Delta is -0.145268995251854
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1771.3992251071134 is not greater than 1772.1717003594756. Delta is -0.7724752523622556
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|██████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                     | 1338/5847 [00:17<00:55, 81.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1742.7116558710684 is not greater than 1742.8031907477468. Delta is -0.09153487667845184
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1777.5392017600836 is not greater than 1777.6873011400712. Delta is -0.1480993799875705
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|██████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                     | 1347/5847 [00:17<00:59, 75.68it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1808.753193815058 is not greater than 1808.9224982984492. Delta is -0.1693044833912154
Model is not converging.  Current: 1777.3137914119125 is not greater than 1777.9548238451473. Delta is -0.6410324332348409
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1777.0849972788337 is not greater than 1777.5338850503865. Delta is -0.4488877715527906
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|██████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                     | 1355/5847 [00:18<01:04, 69.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1778.339161856397 is not greater than 1778.59260361566. Delta is -0.2534417592630689
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|██████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                     | 1363/5847 [00:18<01:03, 71.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1777.596300577606 is not greater than 1777.9091084359147. Delta is -0.3128078583088154
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1803.902831051781 is not greater than 1804.073559640096. Delta is -0.17072858831488702
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1768.129124812445 is not greater than 1768.8247658372368. Delta is -0.695641024791712
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  23%|██████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                     | 1372/5847 [00:18<01:01, 72.20it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1799.7514716958074 is not greater than 1799.9533057385981. Delta is -0.20183404279077877
Model is not converging.  Current: 1735.0763286829879 is not greater than 1735.3130461028911. Delta is -0.23671741990324335
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1766.7132147264779 is not greater than 1766.8244900151144. Delta is -0.11127528863653424
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1798.2689068441146 is not greater than 1798.404635059645. Delta is -0.13572821553043468
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  24%|███████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                    | 1384/5847 [00:18<00:57, 77.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1799.1534494685684 is not greater than 1799.427599817219. Delta is -0.27415034865066445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1794.185277301574 is not greater than 1794.3170933679085. Delta is -0.13181606633452247
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  24%|███████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                    | 1393/5847 [00:18<01:05, 68.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1794.3208986659167 is not greater than 1794.5473798850235. Delta is -0.2264812191067449
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1788.8347126517365 is not greater than 1788.8750909964892. Delta is -0.04037834475275304
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  24%|███████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                    | 1401/5847 [00:18<01:06, 67.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1776.7735883974212 is not greater than 1776.833215081693. Delta is -0.05962668427173412
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1752.4958884335083 is not greater than 1752.4989166566893. Delta is -0.003028223180990608
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1768.0346755269004 is not greater than 1768.1736729212578. Delta is -0.13899739435737501
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  24%|███████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                    | 1408/5847 [00:18<01:07, 65.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1733.485065163333 is not greater than 1733.84185128664. Delta is -0.356786123306847
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1731.2779624418536 is not greater than 1731.4750626524958. Delta is -0.19710021064224748
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1725.1499914671203 is not greater than 1725.8781062669213. Delta is -0.7281147998010056
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  24%|███████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                    | 1417/5847 [00:19<01:03, 69.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1722.866027748065 is not greater than 1723.3537906264444. Delta is -0.48776287837927157
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1747.3602309849373 is not greater than 1749.0640717134493. Delta is -1.7038407285119774
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  24%|████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                   | 1429/5847 [00:19<00:58, 75.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1731.3258289581859 is not greater than 1731.4354712890472. Delta is -0.1096423308613339
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1735.321966699977 is not greater than 1735.8942269384977. Delta is -0.5722602385205846
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1731.6260662751945 is not greater than 1732.2559284986844. Delta is -0.6298622234899085
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  25%|████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                   | 1441/5847 [00:19<00:54, 81.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1730.512667776319 is not greater than 1730.9043636518256. Delta is -0.3916958755066844
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1731.4543032914385 is not greater than 1731.4635593675584. Delta is -0.009256076119982026
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1733.4740736750264 is not greater than 1733.9468153788248. Delta is -0.4727417037984196
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  25%|████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                   | 1450/5847 [00:19<00:53, 82.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1706.456740946205 is not greater than 1706.695766472794. Delta is -0.2390255265891028
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1737.248446213632 is not greater than 1737.5492269868269. Delta is -0.3007807731949015
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  25%|████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                   | 1459/5847 [00:19<00:57, 76.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1706.938731452979 is not greater than 1707.0042854413555. Delta is -0.06555398837645043
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1709.3699334156972 is not greater than 1709.614305545465. Delta is -0.2443721297677257
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1738.3833497849612 is not greater than 1738.9450986693907. Delta is -0.5617488844295622
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  25%|█████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                  | 1471/5847 [00:19<00:56, 77.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1718.9622802946217 is not greater than 1719.757601502059. Delta is -0.7953212074373823
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1724.2488509444993 is not greater than 1724.8158350018432. Delta is -0.566984057343916
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1687.071329937756 is not greater than 1687.5479151831275. Delta is -0.47658524537155245
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1711.8902389052505 is not greater than 1712.0608781050412. Delta is -0.17063919979068487
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  25%|█████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                  | 1483/5847 [00:19<00:54, 80.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1682.2280922122477 is not greater than 1684.1277856891245. Delta is -1.8996934768767915
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1699.2387556266597 is not greater than 1699.8873312070016. Delta is -0.6485755803419124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1697.463815230076 is not greater than 1698.2500960203722. Delta is -0.7862807902961322
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|█████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                  | 1492/5847 [00:19<00:57, 75.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1690.06696545527 is not greater than 1690.497326181418. Delta is -0.4303607261479101
Model is not converging.  Current: 1706.1268196316582 is not greater than 1706.2713388344598. Delta is -0.14451920280157537
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1684.734631780565 is not greater than 1685.0098836128527. Delta is -0.2752518322877222
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|█████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                  | 1501/5847 [00:20<00:59, 73.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|██████████████████████████████████                                                                                                  | 1509/5847 [00:20<01:01, 70.54it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1688.780742015166 is not greater than 1689.6871640301094. Delta is -0.9064220149434732
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1679.2524589832733 is not greater than 1679.2529338018164. Delta is -0.000474818543125366
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.9114317496706 is not greater than 1669.494649135419. Delta is -1.5832173857484122
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|██████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                 | 1517/5847 [00:20<01:07, 64.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1669.6542931360914 is not greater than 1669.8239115269173. Delta is -0.16961839082591723
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1665.9522205836165 is not greater than 1666.4265188978177. Delta is -0.4742983142011781
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|██████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                 | 1524/5847 [00:20<01:11, 60.67it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1648.864918525997 is not greater than 1648.98400651135. Delta is -0.11908798535296228
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1655.4092813752245 is not greater than 1655.5561700077815. Delta is -0.1468886325569656
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|██████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                 | 1531/5847 [00:20<01:14, 57.79it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1645.5194514599054 is not greater than 1646.507673089275. Delta is -0.988221629369491
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1651.8432668211335 is not greater than 1653.5661536541206. Delta is -1.7228868329871148
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|██████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                 | 1540/5847 [00:20<01:07, 63.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  26%|██████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                 | 1547/5847 [00:20<01:07, 64.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1646.9456863704904 is not greater than 1647.1069440289657. Delta is -0.16125765847527873
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1640.1604201931325 is not greater than 1641.2324155635326. Delta is -1.0719953704001455
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  27%|███████████████████████████████████                                                                                                 | 1555/5847 [00:20<01:05, 65.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.100518768774 is not greater than 1638.6653444326048. Delta is -3.5648256638307885
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1611.593879245103 is not greater than 1613.1135226831586. Delta is -1.5196434380557093
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  27%|███████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                | 1566/5847 [00:21<00:55, 77.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1602.2582696744726 is not greater than 1602.9811242269695. Delta is -0.7228545524969832
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1579.996368246009 is not greater than 1580.0025111654122. Delta is -0.006142919403146152
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1607.439710318879 is not greater than 1607.7852980099958. Delta is -0.3455876911168616
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  27%|███████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                | 1574/5847 [00:21<00:56, 75.68it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1589.3608182686417 is not greater than 1589.459277080868. Delta is -0.09845881222645403
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1588.3975720862413 is not greater than 1588.6767430326004. Delta is -0.27917094635904505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  27%|███████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                | 1582/5847 [00:21<00:58, 73.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1602.0277649410482 is not greater than 1602.1338081305587. Delta is -0.10604318951050118
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.9666302303267 is not greater than 1584.1324650798165. Delta is -0.16583484948978366
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1584.2927919635067 is not greater than 1584.6737199092208. Delta is -0.38092794571412014
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  27%|███████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                | 1591/5847 [00:21<00:57, 74.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1609.8140135590213 is not greater than 1609.816646958889. Delta is -0.0026333998675909243
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.0628164568623 is not greater than 1581.2826800113721. Delta is -0.21986355450985684
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  27%|████████████████████████████████████                                                                                                | 1600/5847 [00:21<00:56, 75.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1601.4728556388693 is not greater than 1601.538998251415. Delta is -0.0661426125457183
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1598.7932741205916 is not greater than 1599.2639139072844. Delta is -0.47063978669280004
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.499355021181 is not greater than 1600.4383336820301. Delta is -0.9389786608492159
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  28%|████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                               | 1609/5847 [00:21<00:55, 77.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.4207041240263 is not greater than 1583.4658292625338. Delta is -0.045125138507501106
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1595.138429946034 is not greater than 1596.3662289886045. Delta is -1.2277990425704957
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1603.8772401566491 is not greater than 1603.9584374650267. Delta is -0.08119730837756833
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  28%|████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                               | 1621/5847 [00:21<00:53, 78.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1580.7180612540712 is not greater than 1580.8654299773195. Delta is -0.14736872324829164
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.3607320416756 is not greater than 1582.5459277495706. Delta is -1.1851957078949908
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1593.622492594878 is not greater than 1593.7142054339058. Delta is -0.09171283902787764
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.2822665333665 is not greater than 1601.3180435002846. Delta is -2.0357769669180925
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  28%|████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                               | 1633/5847 [00:21<00:49, 84.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1578.8363522172547 is not greater than 1578.931244383941. Delta is -0.09489216668634981
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1596.1696915298994 is not greater than 1597.813523114449. Delta is -1.6438315845496163
Model is not converging.  Current: 1590.9536343655284 is not greater than 1591.4362486780954. Delta is -0.48261431256696596
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  28%|█████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                              | 1645/5847 [00:22<00:47, 89.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1588.9144869923146 is not greater than 1589.291240703027. Delta is -0.3767537107123644
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1578.994973437312 is not greater than 1579.8374149597428. Delta is -0.8424415224308177
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  28%|█████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                              | 1654/5847 [00:22<00:51, 80.69it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1567.7145469856057 is not greater than 1569.1794810409315. Delta is -1.4649340553257844
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  28%|█████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                              | 1663/5847 [00:22<00:51, 81.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1563.4965179936873 is not greater than 1563.5643706321284. Delta is -0.06785263844108158
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  29%|█████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                              | 1672/5847 [00:22<00:54, 77.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1560.8040704260711 is not greater than 1560.8120856853252. Delta is -0.008015259254079865
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.3913237875968 is not greater than 1548.5633644663938. Delta is -0.17204067879697504
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.6185686971091 is not greater than 1550.9067710337167. Delta is -0.28820233660758277
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.7214164350494 is not greater than 1548.9558905831789. Delta is -0.2344741481294932
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  29%|██████████████████████████████████████                                                                                              | 1684/5847 [00:22<00:50, 82.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.1452809360999 is not greater than 1531.3225219803824. Delta is -0.1772410442824821
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  29%|██████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                             | 1693/5847 [00:22<00:51, 80.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.0356023819816 is not greater than 1529.1349791995049. Delta is -0.09937681752330718
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  29%|██████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                             | 1702/5847 [00:22<00:53, 76.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1513.3859901090686 is not greater than 1513.386204370499. Delta is -0.00021426143030112144
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  29%|██████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                             | 1710/5847 [00:22<00:58, 70.17it/s]

🛑 Panic mode ACTIVÉ le 2008-10-10 00:00:00

Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.7022283063689 is not greater than 1499.7046752237202. Delta is -0.002446917351335287
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.8045153438447 is not greater than 1487.8207964549026. Delta is -0.01628111105787866
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.6287138784983 is not greater than 1483.7351605687431. Delta is -0.10644669024486575
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  29%|██████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                             | 1718/5847 [00:23<01:08, 60.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|██████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                             | 1725/5847 [00:23<01:08, 60.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1460.6357311885658 is not greater than 1460.637371756666. Delta is -0.001640568100128803
Model is not converging.  Current: 1465.7021425197868 is not greater than 1465.7696693813045. Delta is -0.06752686151776288
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1459.934508628062 is not greater than 1459.9372962311038. Delta is -0.002787603041724651
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████                                                                                             | 1732/5847 [00:23<01:17, 53.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1453.0349582753784 is not greater than 1453.088510359599. Delta is -0.05355208422065516
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                            | 1741/5847 [00:23<01:14, 55.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1430.6381321919364 is not greater than 1430.6441786591774. Delta is -0.006046467241048958
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                            | 1747/5847 [00:23<01:13, 55.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1424.6935111150078 is not greater than 1424.7041204596746. Delta is -0.010609344666818288

✅ Panic mode DÉSACTIVÉ le 2008-11-26 00:00:00

📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                            | 1753/5847 [00:23<01:22, 49.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1411.9604320803292 is not greater than 1412.0729635420757. Delta is -0.11253146174658468
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1410.9404109383677 is not greater than 1410.9540459052932. Delta is -0.013634966925565095
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                            | 1762/5847 [00:23<01:12, 56.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1406.1429348132144 is not greater than 1406.1771696907535. Delta is -0.034234877539120134
Model is not converging.  Current: 1400.2520951321376 is not greater than 1400.3332556012238. Delta is -0.08116046908617136
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                            | 1771/5847 [00:24<01:05, 62.64it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  30%|████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                           | 1778/5847 [00:24<01:05, 61.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1372.142325077347 is not greater than 1372.3501329267067. Delta is -0.20780784935959673
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                           | 1786/5847 [00:24<01:04, 63.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1371.558214411323 is not greater than 1371.8135117207814. Delta is -0.25529730945845586
Model is not converging.  Current: 1369.6627111300309 is not greater than 1369.7099445214517. Delta is -0.04723339142083205
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                           | 1795/5847 [00:24<01:05, 61.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                           | 1804/5847 [00:24<01:02, 64.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                           | 1811/5847 [00:24<01:01, 65.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1346.493771501828 is not greater than 1346.498375309467. Delta is -0.004603807639114166
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|█████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                           | 1818/5847 [00:24<01:06, 60.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|█████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                          | 1825/5847 [00:24<01:11, 56.22it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|█████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                          | 1831/5847 [00:25<01:17, 52.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  31%|█████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                          | 1837/5847 [00:25<01:19, 50.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|█████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                          | 1852/5847 [00:25<01:16, 52.41it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|█████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                          | 1858/5847 [00:25<01:14, 53.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1295.1995004085443 is not greater than 1295.224404181779. Delta is -0.02490377323465509
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                         | 1867/5847 [00:25<01:11, 55.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                         | 1873/5847 [00:25<01:11, 55.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1282.106317020067 is not greater than 1282.1224643464143. Delta is -0.016147326347208946
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                         | 1879/5847 [00:25<01:14, 53.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                         | 1885/5847 [00:26<01:13, 54.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                         | 1897/5847 [00:26<01:16, 51.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1286.3134024762528 is not greater than 1286.6043905460624. Delta is -0.29098806980960035
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|███████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                         | 1906/5847 [00:26<01:07, 58.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1290.9619881765486 is not greater than 1290.9764668591354. Delta is -0.014478682586741343
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|███████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                        | 1918/5847 [00:26<01:16, 51.16it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1292.4460023034578 is not greater than 1292.449538332867. Delta is -0.0035360294091333344
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|███████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                        | 1927/5847 [00:26<01:11, 54.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|███████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                        | 1936/5847 [00:27<01:04, 60.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|███████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                        | 1943/5847 [00:27<01:03, 61.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                        | 1951/5847 [00:27<01:04, 60.59it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  33%|████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                       | 1958/5847 [00:27<01:02, 62.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1291.8785654212058 is not greater than 1291.9007429258963. Delta is -0.022177504690489513
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                       | 1965/5847 [00:27<01:00, 64.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1292.601341861322 is not greater than 1292.6211326682237. Delta is -0.01979080690171031
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                       | 1972/5847 [00:27<01:13, 52.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                       | 1981/5847 [00:27<01:08, 56.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1293.2300218377452 is not greater than 1293.2380995216151. Delta is -0.00807768386994212
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1285.7638784648937 is not greater than 1285.9331622686502. Delta is -0.1692838037565707
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                       | 1987/5847 [00:27<01:13, 52.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|█████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                       | 1996/5847 [00:28<01:10, 54.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                      | 2008/5847 [00:28<01:09, 55.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  34%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                      | 2014/5847 [00:28<01:12, 53.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1305.4380877685594 is not greater than 1305.4624141696436. Delta is -0.02432640108418127
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                      | 2020/5847 [00:28<01:20, 47.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                      | 2026/5847 [00:28<01:17, 49.22it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                      | 2035/5847 [00:28<01:09, 54.94it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                     | 2044/5847 [00:28<01:02, 60.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                     | 2051/5847 [00:29<01:02, 61.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1315.6967963899265 is not greater than 1315.7352734082854. Delta is -0.038477018358889836
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                     | 2059/5847 [00:29<01:04, 59.06it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1331.9962240863565 is not greater than 1331.9991492310592. Delta is -0.0029251447026581445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                     | 2068/5847 [00:29<01:03, 59.77it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                     | 2075/5847 [00:29<01:03, 59.30it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                     | 2083/5847 [00:29<01:03, 59.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                    | 2089/5847 [00:29<01:07, 56.08it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                    | 2095/5847 [00:29<01:28, 42.30it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                    | 2101/5847 [00:30<01:22, 45.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                    | 2107/5847 [00:30<01:18, 47.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1323.307880904748 is not greater than 1323.3088932193075. Delta is -0.0010123145596026006
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                    | 2113/5847 [00:30<01:18, 47.31it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                    | 2119/5847 [00:30<01:22, 45.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1310.6940102285078 is not greater than 1310.6982383825139. Delta is -0.004228154006113982
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                    | 2125/5847 [00:30<01:16, 48.67it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  36%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                   | 2134/5847 [00:30<01:09, 53.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1312.4938293032105 is not greater than 1312.4952551498393. Delta is -0.0014258466287628835
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                   | 2140/5847 [00:30<01:14, 49.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1308.1260580028304 is not greater than 1308.1420219026784. Delta is -0.01596389984797497
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                   | 2149/5847 [00:30<01:08, 53.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1310.7684844142466 is not greater than 1310.7782568352025. Delta is -0.009772420955869165
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                   | 2161/5847 [00:31<01:14, 49.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1316.0445460465878 is not greater than 1316.0492019343044. Delta is -0.004655887716580764
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1315.7809724321423 is not greater than 1315.7816036663494. Delta is -0.000631234207048692
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                   | 2170/5847 [00:31<01:07, 54.49it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                   | 2176/5847 [00:31<01:09, 52.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1318.706324622267 is not greater than 1318.74600578863. Delta is -0.03968116636315244
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                  | 2182/5847 [00:31<01:11, 51.38it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1325.6082433755544 is not greater than 1325.6202085336745. Delta is -0.011965158120119668
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  37%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                  | 2191/5847 [00:31<01:03, 57.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                  | 2197/5847 [00:31<01:05, 55.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1354.0023200074593 is not greater than 1354.0221385268785. Delta is -0.01981851941923196
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                  | 2206/5847 [00:32<01:01, 59.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1368.6700752156132 is not greater than 1368.6723224283523. Delta is -0.002247212739121096
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                  | 2212/5847 [00:32<01:03, 57.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1374.706585257508 is not greater than 1374.7939744998318. Delta is -0.08738924232375211
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1384.3269822116135 is not greater than 1384.3592311383413. Delta is -0.032248926727788785
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                 | 2221/5847 [00:32<01:00, 60.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1390.3769466233996 is not greater than 1390.4544603702732. Delta is -0.07751374687359203
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                 | 2230/5847 [00:32<00:56, 64.23it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1415.1912179494102 is not greater than 1415.2589894508328. Delta is -0.06777150142261235
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                 | 2237/5847 [00:32<00:56, 63.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1423.7095513518288 is not greater than 1423.7124017263068. Delta is -0.0028503744779300177
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1430.1834414334278 is not greater than 1430.1976793589802. Delta is -0.014237925552379238
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                 | 2244/5847 [00:32<00:55, 64.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1409.999073043059 is not greater than 1410.2084443188157. Delta is -0.20937127575666636
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  38%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                 | 2251/5847 [00:32<00:59, 60.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1442.384741614109 is not greater than 1442.4136312665764. Delta is -0.028889652467341875
Model is not converging.  Current: 1424.7333233171282 is not greater than 1424.7551860185015. Delta is -0.021862701373265736
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                 | 2260/5847 [00:32<00:56, 63.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1427.409405026394 is not greater than 1427.7467905852507. Delta is -0.3373855588565675
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                | 2269/5847 [00:32<00:52, 68.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1439.7107413096107 is not greater than 1440.049401520117. Delta is -0.3386602105063048
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1437.3727847573293 is not greater than 1437.4508569937038. Delta is -0.07807223637450988
Model is not converging.  Current: 1442.084638316217 is not greater than 1442.2263206843618. Delta is -0.14168236814475677
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                | 2278/5847 [00:33<00:49, 72.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1445.055783555125 is not greater than 1445.2608863764565. Delta is -0.20510282133159308
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1471.9362435824373 is not greater than 1472.2199391724232. Delta is -0.2836955899858822
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                | 2287/5847 [00:33<00:46, 77.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1466.0944628470934 is not greater than 1466.1061413390137. Delta is -0.0116784919202928
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                | 2295/5847 [00:33<00:46, 75.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1451.7775586478635 is not greater than 1451.8641950300473. Delta is -0.08663638218376946
Model is not converging.  Current: 1503.948428624223 is not greater than 1503.9490765473245. Delta is -0.0006479231014964171
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.32859666763 is not greater than 1485.350225944241. Delta is -0.021629276610838133
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                | 2303/5847 [00:33<00:48, 73.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.7773073369551 is not greater than 1493.1307030073342. Delta is -0.35339567037908637
Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.122055384976 is not greater than 1477.2078635718015. Delta is -0.08580818682548852
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                               | 2311/5847 [00:33<00:50, 70.38it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1515.720272694001 is not greater than 1516.5528330688794. Delta is -0.8325603748783124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                               | 2320/5847 [00:33<00:48, 72.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1518.3385365042486 is not greater than 1518.41407028277. Delta is -0.07553377852127596
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.306470876323 is not greater than 1523.4799796265265. Delta is -0.17350875020360945
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.1371068462315 is not greater than 1528.2413591769841. Delta is -0.10425233075261531
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                               | 2329/5847 [00:33<00:49, 70.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.6715354656867 is not greater than 1524.8396645771359. Delta is -0.16812911144916143
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.1481771113147 is not greater than 1535.2874757044126. Delta is -0.13929859309791937
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                               | 2338/5847 [00:33<00:50, 69.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.7955522126429 is not greater than 1539.8283207405732. Delta is -0.03276852793032958
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.9134110376274 is not greater than 1554.1090579545785. Delta is -0.19564691695109104
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                               | 2347/5847 [00:34<00:49, 70.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.7757631832224 is not greater than 1557.9483345972244. Delta is -0.17257141400205
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                              | 2355/5847 [00:34<00:49, 71.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.4707851486312 is not greater than 1559.8048171880723. Delta is -0.33403203944112647
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.5752144366795 is not greater than 1551.6322739061218. Delta is -0.057059469442265254
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.6937258042608 is not greater than 1552.8725659965435. Delta is -0.1788401922826779
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  40%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                              | 2363/5847 [00:34<00:48, 71.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1572.8450115915657 is not greater than 1574.297886641464. Delta is -1.452875049898239
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1558.5142231158452 is not greater than 1558.5348344702982. Delta is -0.020611354452967134
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1570.4973309474076 is not greater than 1570.716037290587. Delta is -0.21870634317951954
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                              | 2371/5847 [00:34<00:53, 65.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1565.9805154349224 is not greater than 1565.9949185948676. Delta is -0.014403159945231891
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                              | 2378/5847 [00:34<00:54, 63.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1571.9180238431225 is not greater than 1572.52357142838. Delta is -0.6055475852574546
Model is not converging.  Current: 1577.0748668097078 is not greater than 1577.3176674426393. Delta is -0.2428006329314485
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.8443522854254 is not greater than 1581.8816649508133. Delta is -0.03731266538784439
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                              | 2386/5847 [00:34<00:54, 63.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.8323247331584 is not greater than 1582.8425860763487. Delta is -1.0102613431902228
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1576.8750528853204 is not greater than 1577.159501016006. Delta is -0.28444813068563235
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                              | 2395/5847 [00:34<00:53, 64.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.2945790783865 is not greater than 1585.3202828720264. Delta is -0.025703793639877404
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1586.0930630225107 is not greater than 1586.1555537473973. Delta is -0.06249072488662932
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                             | 2404/5847 [00:34<00:51, 67.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1546.118251457504 is not greater than 1546.1315425431765. Delta is -0.013291085672562986
Model is not converging.  Current: 1581.9437596029588 is not greater than 1582.53931639504. Delta is -0.5955567920811973
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1568.3854477938723 is not greater than 1568.6147294000873. Delta is -0.22928160621495408
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                             | 2413/5847 [00:35<00:48, 70.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1575.847704168914 is not greater than 1577.7334883415. Delta is -1.8857841725859998
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.9543003731474 is not greater than 1556.0997744695012. Delta is -0.145474096353837
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  41%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                             | 2421/5847 [00:35<00:48, 70.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1571.840251479386 is not greater than 1572.1015423898068. Delta is -0.26129091042071195
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.7490830399977 is not greater than 1551.805402402827. Delta is -0.05631936282929928
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.334554137424 is not greater than 1544.373483015126. Delta is -0.03892887770211928
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                             | 2429/5847 [00:35<00:50, 67.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.4859351405134 is not greater than 1555.5718255823597. Delta is -0.08589044184623162
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                             | 2436/5847 [00:35<00:56, 60.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.7240234233016 is not greater than 1549.017068182777. Delta is -0.29304475947537867
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.7920808803642 is not greater than 1542.2621962390765. Delta is -0.4701153587122917
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                            | 2443/5847 [00:35<01:08, 49.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.201539139359 is not greater than 1539.2521345692685. Delta is -0.05059542990943555
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.3411405015884 is not greater than 1541.0643957876603. Delta is -0.7232552860718897
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                            | 2449/5847 [00:35<01:08, 49.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.8159593797875 is not greater than 1533.9606994661615. Delta is -0.14474008637398583
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                            | 2455/5847 [00:35<01:08, 49.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1513.6627366116572 is not greater than 1513.6666072598048. Delta is -0.0038706481475401233
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.6297454781943 is not greater than 1523.7364070637389. Delta is -0.10666158554454341
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1508.6559577754363 is not greater than 1508.6913360085096. Delta is -0.03537823307328836
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                            | 2464/5847 [00:35<01:01, 54.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1509.9011636413659 is not greater than 1510.0155235716563. Delta is -0.11435993029044766
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.2891939668766 is not greater than 1519.6192447795004. Delta is -0.33005081262376734
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                            | 2473/5847 [00:36<00:54, 61.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.7858434225516 is not greater than 1515.3101638601595. Delta is -0.524320437607912
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                            | 2480/5847 [00:36<00:54, 61.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1505.405247600206 is not greater than 1505.4064174250593. Delta is -0.0011698248533775768
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.7745899886168 is not greater than 1531.9341245337728. Delta is -0.1595345451560206
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                           | 2488/5847 [00:36<00:54, 61.66it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                           | 2497/5847 [00:36<00:49, 67.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.5751563059289 is not greater than 1489.5918007192763. Delta is -0.016644413347421505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.2566553677568 is not greater than 1501.3009564594386. Delta is -0.044301091681745675
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.3702460118925 is not greater than 1487.511575715392. Delta is -0.14132970349942298
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.6091817189665 is not greater than 1483.7017601506004. Delta is -0.09257843163391044
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                           | 2509/5847 [00:36<00:42, 77.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.1588048774372 is not greater than 1487.1639176545232. Delta is -0.0051127770859693555
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.564311381128 is not greater than 1490.1050609672886. Delta is -0.5407495861607003
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                           | 2517/5847 [00:36<00:43, 76.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.861323119595 is not greater than 1484.862052090049. Delta is -0.0007289704540198727
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                           | 2525/5847 [00:36<00:46, 71.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1486.026327382191 is not greater than 1486.2048914233699. Delta is -0.1785640411787881
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.4505854437514 is not greater than 1489.622061677728. Delta is -0.17147623397659117
Model is not converging.  Current: 1518.640318308928 is not greater than 1518.8243572174324. Delta is -0.18403890850436255
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                          | 2533/5847 [00:36<00:47, 69.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.2051778162152 is not greater than 1483.440971736358. Delta is -0.23579392014289624
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  43%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                          | 2541/5847 [00:37<00:54, 61.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.4181619897927 is not greater than 1488.5019098236949. Delta is -0.08374783390217999
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.6425188421015 is not greater than 1496.8338531477327. Delta is -0.1913343056312442
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  44%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                          | 2548/5847 [00:37<00:54, 60.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.976337562236 is not greater than 1502.2412796368028. Delta is -0.2649420745667612
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  44%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                          | 2557/5847 [00:37<00:49, 65.93it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.8549461310881 is not greater than 1499.910670569874. Delta is -0.0557244387857736
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  44%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                          | 2566/5847 [00:37<00:51, 64.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.3052118680566 is not greater than 1523.3574066621957. Delta is -0.05219479413904082
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.2531814523468 is not greater than 1496.3158062091768. Delta is -0.06262475683001867
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  44%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                         | 2575/5847 [00:37<00:46, 70.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.7754052830016 is not greater than 1526.7846774054744. Delta is -0.009272122472793853
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.8980623076127 is not greater than 1494.9561706435961. Delta is -0.05810833598343379
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.5706987931162 is not greater than 1496.5771643629907. Delta is -0.006465569874535504
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  44%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                         | 2584/5847 [00:37<00:46, 69.95it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.5422037948786 is not greater than 1494.141890812346. Delta is -0.5996870174674314
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  44%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                         | 2593/5847 [00:37<00:45, 71.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.9549235026934 is not greater than 1495.0168828971268. Delta is -0.06195939443341558
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.7075694932637 is not greater than 1499.8609746928687. Delta is -0.15340519960500387
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                         | 2602/5847 [00:37<00:45, 70.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1511.5268623388267 is not greater than 1511.8703799734305. Delta is -0.34351763460381335
Model is not converging.  Current: 1511.6476083021137 is not greater than 1512.0074023288003. Delta is -0.3597940266865862
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                         | 2611/5847 [00:38<00:49, 66.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.0061574592542 is not greater than 1514.116454938657. Delta is -0.11029747940278867
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1534.2737913028575 is not greater than 1535.2084688458187. Delta is -0.9346775429612535
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                        | 2623/5847 [00:38<00:45, 70.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.9515428494292 is not greater than 1553.9574618423967. Delta is -0.0059189929675085295
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                        | 2632/5847 [00:38<00:44, 72.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1527.5660619629753 is not greater than 1527.5759755548593. Delta is -0.00991359188401475
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                        | 2641/5847 [00:38<00:43, 73.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.3704421844245 is not greater than 1531.3726590922936. Delta is -0.0022169078690694732
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.6006155834407 is not greater than 1533.6657945265742. Delta is -0.0651789431335601
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                        | 2650/5847 [00:38<00:42, 76.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.6145242391765 is not greater than 1535.6825853883427. Delta is -0.06806114916616934
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  45%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                        | 2658/5847 [00:38<00:45, 69.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.943227389095 is not greater than 1538.0446733321191. Delta is -0.10144594302414589
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.3020942431644 is not greater than 1533.3362130351838. Delta is -0.034118792019398825
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                       | 2666/5847 [00:38<00:57, 55.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.3601563338677 is not greater than 1536.36313847207. Delta is -0.002982138202241913
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                       | 2674/5847 [00:39<00:53, 58.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.4102997153145 is not greater than 1539.5406989094097. Delta is -0.13039919409516187
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                       | 2681/5847 [00:39<00:52, 60.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.3048440308237 is not greater than 1537.385793310452. Delta is -0.08094927962838483
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.0545151522426 is not greater than 1548.0889896401459. Delta is -0.03447448790325325
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.8302715851298 is not greater than 1553.9605431371915. Delta is -0.13027155206168572
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                       | 2689/5847 [00:39<00:51, 61.52it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                       | 2696/5847 [00:39<00:52, 60.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.5849870542552 is not greater than 1551.6996222395767. Delta is -0.11463518532150374
Model is not converging.  Current: 1547.9967832960574 is not greater than 1548.5094104953396. Delta is -0.5126271992821785
Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.0220343853882 is not greater than 1552.1284473003095. Delta is -0.10641291492129312
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                       | 2704/5847 [00:39<00:50, 62.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.1547193961258 is not greater than 1544.4214462213197. Delta is -0.26672682519392765
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1543.4812982828385 is not greater than 1543.6407652413561. Delta is -0.1594669585176689
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  46%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                      | 2713/5847 [00:39<00:45, 69.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  47%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                      | 2722/5847 [00:39<00:46, 67.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  47%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                      | 2731/5847 [00:39<00:46, 67.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.515385843282 is not greater than 1550.2182456893522. Delta is -0.7028598460701687
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  47%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                      | 2740/5847 [00:40<00:43, 70.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.4936636864327 is not greater than 1557.8580792141. Delta is -0.3644155276672336
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.1996990078378 is not greater than 1537.2659252904468. Delta is -0.06622628260902275
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.8220523663451 is not greater than 1541.8547507746794. Delta is -0.03269840833422677
Model is not converging.  Current: 1548.7103864481992 is not greater than 1548.8191475423346. Delta is -0.1087610941353887
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  47%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                     | 2752/5847 [00:40<00:39, 78.01it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.505154424014 is not greater than 1553.6238807303573. Delta is -0.11872630634320558
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.4886583892398 is not greater than 1542.691960181302. Delta is -0.2033017920621205
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  47%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                     | 2761/5847 [00:40<00:39, 78.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.933201402034 is not greater than 1542.0561943634284. Delta is -0.1229929613944023
Model is not converging.  Current: 1545.6207928691842 is not greater than 1545.7898576030511. Delta is -0.16906473386688958
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  47%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                     | 2770/5847 [00:40<00:39, 78.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.163001278249 is not greater than 1536.6149963543926. Delta is -0.45199507614347567
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  48%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                     | 2782/5847 [00:40<00:38, 80.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1545.8133174940954 is not greater than 1545.8168635640902. Delta is -0.003546069994854406
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.1902694398218 is not greater than 1549.342765915144. Delta is -0.15249647532209565
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                     | 2791/5847 [00:40<00:39, 77.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.7608842848451 is not greater than 1485.913446397246. Delta is -0.1525621124008012
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                    | 2800/5847 [00:40<00:38, 79.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                    | 2812/5847 [00:40<00:37, 81.26it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.8092209085062 is not greater than 1553.8552083053162. Delta is -0.04598739681000552
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                    | 2821/5847 [00:41<00:38, 78.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1546.8055153326854 is not greater than 1546.881046695066. Delta is -0.07553136238061597
Model is not converging.  Current: 1547.892011993569 is not greater than 1547.9581829621272. Delta is -0.06617096855825366
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                    | 2830/5847 [00:41<00:40, 74.15it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1554.246068520194 is not greater than 1554.332379829542. Delta is -0.08631130934804787
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                    | 2839/5847 [00:41<00:41, 73.24it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.3136708582174 is not greater than 1550.4582045951806. Delta is -0.1445337369632398
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                   | 2848/5847 [00:41<00:42, 70.40it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.18363832591 is not greater than 1553.4464663158112. Delta is -0.26282798990132505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                   | 2857/5847 [00:41<00:41, 72.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.8451295106188 is not greater than 1540.9331974576842. Delta is -0.08806794706538312
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.3259874220696 is not greater than 1550.4858446067435. Delta is -0.15985718467391052
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.8740800307153 is not greater than 1556.9686728045228. Delta is -0.09459277380756248
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                   | 2866/5847 [00:41<00:38, 76.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.286623489329 is not greater than 1556.52753283191. Delta is -0.24090934258106245
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                   | 2875/5847 [00:41<00:40, 73.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.216097584064 is not greater than 1542.5514735523052. Delta is -0.3353759682411237
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                   | 2884/5847 [00:41<00:39, 75.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.9737440089905 is not greater than 1543.194590395234. Delta is -0.22084638624346553
Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.214096371813 is not greater than 1585.2257753871645. Delta is -0.011679015351546695
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  49%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                  | 2893/5847 [00:42<00:38, 76.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  50%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                  | 2902/5847 [00:42<00:39, 75.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1554.1538375200828 is not greater than 1554.3476597535184. Delta is -0.19382223343563965
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.3529352979629 is not greater than 1552.4140819921638. Delta is -0.061146694200942875
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  50%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                  | 2911/5847 [00:42<00:39, 74.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1566.472786321429 is not greater than 1566.5597601002232. Delta is -0.0869737787941176
Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.2663961110222 is not greater than 1585.3542067221335. Delta is -0.08781061111130839
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  50%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                  | 2920/5847 [00:42<00:40, 73.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1585.0384697803922 is not greater than 1585.4005127854655. Delta is -0.3620430050732466
Model is not converging.  Current: 1616.3170561420388 is not greater than 1616.3237884480457. Delta is -0.006732306006824729
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  50%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                  | 2929/5847 [00:42<00:38, 76.77it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  50%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                 | 2938/5847 [00:42<00:38, 75.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1597.947814487469 is not greater than 1598.0511708717402. Delta is -0.10335638427113736
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  50%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                 | 2947/5847 [00:42<00:38, 74.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1592.4053314438504 is not greater than 1592.425452129518. Delta is -0.020120685667507132
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.1507001850416 is not greater than 1651.040176033755. Delta is -0.8894758487133458
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  51%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                 | 2959/5847 [00:42<00:35, 82.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.9132599850416 is not greater than 1633.9925533732728. Delta is -0.07929338823123544
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.1595365551275 is not greater than 1639.1910734604198. Delta is -0.031536905292341544
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  51%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                 | 2971/5847 [00:43<00:32, 88.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1644.0058455531837 is not greater than 1644.4397148755972. Delta is -0.4338693224135568
Model is not converging.  Current: 1670.7688890620814 is not greater than 1670.9882101663115. Delta is -0.21932110423017548
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1674.1454612347684 is not greater than 1674.3321416482718. Delta is -0.18668041350338171
Model is not converging.  Current: 1683.3794850504216 is not greater than 1683.4573627709417. Delta is -0.07787772052006403
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  51%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                | 2983/5847 [00:43<00:29, 95.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1666.8342712403087 is not greater than 1666.9238939294717. Delta is -0.08962268916297944
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1687.3440413829283 is not greater than 1687.6808864106958. Delta is -0.33684502776759473
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  51%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                | 2995/5847 [00:43<00:29, 97.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  51%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                | 3005/5847 [00:43<00:29, 97.14it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                | 3015/5847 [00:43<00:44, 64.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                               | 3025/5847 [00:43<00:41, 68.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                               | 3037/5847 [00:43<00:36, 77.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                               | 3049/5847 [00:43<00:34, 81.66it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  52%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                               | 3061/5847 [00:44<00:32, 85.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  53%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                              | 3071/5847 [00:44<00:31, 88.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  53%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                              | 3082/5847 [00:44<00:31, 88.21it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  53%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                              | 3092/5847 [00:44<00:31, 88.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                              | 3103/5847 [00:44<00:31, 88.46it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                             | 3115/5847 [00:44<00:29, 91.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1723.8220240723213 is not greater than 1724.0197891049281. Delta is -0.19776503260686695
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                             | 3127/5847 [00:44<00:28, 94.22it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  54%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                             | 3137/5847 [00:44<00:33, 82.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1745.499210140321 is not greater than 1745.503584693688. Delta is -0.004374553366915279
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                             | 3146/5847 [00:45<00:35, 75.83it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                            | 3154/5847 [00:45<00:35, 75.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                            | 3163/5847 [00:45<00:35, 76.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1736.6585777587895 is not greater than 1736.6609306022706. Delta is -0.0023528434810486942
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                            | 3172/5847 [00:45<00:34, 77.65it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                            | 3181/5847 [00:45<00:34, 78.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                            | 3190/5847 [00:45<00:33, 79.69it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1765.3938440879772 is not greater than 1765.9253943660915. Delta is -0.5315502781143095
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                           | 3199/5847 [00:45<00:38, 69.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                           | 3208/5847 [00:45<00:36, 72.77it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                           | 3217/5847 [00:46<00:35, 74.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1746.9815425782874 is not greater than 1746.9902031136999. Delta is -0.008660535412445824
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                           | 3227/5847 [00:46<00:32, 81.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  55%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                           | 3236/5847 [00:46<00:32, 80.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1754.7182578959098 is not greater than 1754.7751694079848. Delta is -0.05691151207497569
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1760.7327420103422 is not greater than 1760.766336251309. Delta is -0.03359424096674957
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                          | 3247/5847 [00:46<00:30, 86.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                          | 3256/5847 [00:46<00:30, 84.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1757.913051388921 is not greater than 1758.4720650615893. Delta is -0.5590136726682431
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                          | 3265/5847 [00:46<00:30, 85.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                          | 3274/5847 [00:46<00:31, 82.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1753.358773893927 is not greater than 1754.2565453895945. Delta is -0.8977714956674845
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  56%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                         | 3286/5847 [00:46<00:30, 84.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  56%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                         | 3295/5847 [00:46<00:30, 83.87it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                         | 3304/5847 [00:47<00:31, 80.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                         | 3316/5847 [00:47<00:28, 87.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                         | 3325/5847 [00:47<00:29, 86.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                        | 3334/5847 [00:47<00:29, 85.96it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                        | 3343/5847 [00:47<00:29, 85.40it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                        | 3352/5847 [00:47<00:29, 85.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                        | 3361/5847 [00:47<00:29, 83.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                        | 3370/5847 [00:47<00:29, 84.58it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                       | 3379/5847 [00:47<00:29, 82.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                       | 3388/5847 [00:48<00:30, 80.01it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                       | 3397/5847 [00:48<00:30, 81.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                       | 3406/5847 [00:48<00:32, 75.53it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  58%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                       | 3415/5847 [00:48<00:33, 72.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                      | 3424/5847 [00:48<00:32, 73.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                      | 3433/5847 [00:48<00:32, 73.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                      | 3442/5847 [00:48<00:32, 73.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1715.0061576345347 is not greater than 1717.4823939753242. Delta is -2.4762363407894554
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                      | 3450/5847 [00:48<00:32, 73.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1706.7697641351747 is not greater than 1707.9870374743991. Delta is -1.2172733392244481
Model is not converging.  Current: 1715.6407165141436 is not greater than 1716.1259584166644. Delta is -0.4852419025207837
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                      | 3460/5847 [00:49<00:32, 74.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1702.9770030386328 is not greater than 1703.4214638221686. Delta is -0.44446078353576013
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                     | 3469/5847 [00:49<00:34, 69.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  59%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                     | 3478/5847 [00:49<00:33, 70.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1703.057187180334 is not greater than 1703.2509462922246. Delta is -0.1937591118905857
Model is not converging.  Current: 1693.5369916545724 is not greater than 1693.6849260989397. Delta is -0.14793444436736536
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                     | 3487/5847 [00:49<00:32, 72.13it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                     | 3496/5847 [00:49<00:32, 71.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                     | 3504/5847 [00:49<00:33, 70.25it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1673.8898951588176 is not greater than 1673.9216547007466. Delta is -0.03175954192897734
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                    | 3512/5847 [00:49<00:32, 72.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1685.144611993432 is not greater than 1685.2839287397408. Delta is -0.13931674630885027
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                    | 3520/5847 [00:49<00:34, 67.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                    | 3527/5847 [00:50<00:34, 67.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1666.5400491917628 is not greater than 1667.7098837804447. Delta is -1.1698345886818515
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                    | 3535/5847 [00:50<00:33, 68.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1670.265211186263 is not greater than 1672.7845773239976. Delta is -2.5193661377345506
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1661.0037788556879 is not greater than 1661.0189607403352. Delta is -0.015181884647290644
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                    | 3544/5847 [00:50<00:33, 68.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1616.7114322136104 is not greater than 1616.758490457441. Delta is -0.04705824383063373
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                   | 3553/5847 [00:50<00:31, 73.38it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                   | 3562/5847 [00:50<00:32, 70.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1645.6642736258818 is not greater than 1645.739106234663. Delta is -0.07483260878120745
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                   | 3570/5847 [00:50<00:35, 64.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                   | 3577/5847 [00:50<00:37, 60.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1631.7773484277202 is not greater than 1631.8208844660398. Delta is -0.04353603831964392
Model is not converging.  Current: 1651.5318000847958 is not greater than 1652.5668001358727. Delta is -1.0350000510768496
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                   | 3586/5847 [00:50<00:35, 63.28it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.2117802404282 is not greater than 1653.8529867944644. Delta is -1.6412065540362164
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  61%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                  | 3595/5847 [00:51<00:36, 61.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  62%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                  | 3604/5847 [00:51<00:34, 64.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1625.4838212771535 is not greater than 1625.5968915555247. Delta is -0.11307027837119676
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1649.7776236200896 is not greater than 1651.0980294354183. Delta is -1.3204058153287406
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  62%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                  | 3616/5847 [00:51<00:29, 75.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1647.1353819726316 is not greater than 1647.4280207650024. Delta is -0.2926387923707807
Model is not converging.  Current: 1646.7558385103712 is not greater than 1646.7983243354486. Delta is -0.04248582507739229
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  62%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                  | 3625/5847 [00:51<00:28, 76.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1648.042376940758 is not greater than 1648.043588104151. Delta is -0.0012111633930089738
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1648.4835473897288 is not greater than 1649.732298520618. Delta is -1.2487511308893318
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  62%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                  | 3634/5847 [00:51<00:29, 75.96it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1632.531028220343 is not greater than 1632.8818786262732. Delta is -0.3508504059302595
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  62%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                 | 3643/5847 [00:51<00:27, 79.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1645.7405040286965 is not greater than 1646.3383474208144. Delta is -0.5978433921179658
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1625.6702181695252 is not greater than 1625.89308983688. Delta is -0.22287166735486608
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1637.4987889521715 is not greater than 1638.8996443144458. Delta is -1.400855362274342
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1634.4673255092353 is not greater than 1634.5193317141823. Delta is -0.052006204947019796
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                 | 3655/5847 [00:51<00:25, 84.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1633.291695357491 is not greater than 1633.847761329613. Delta is -0.5560659721218144
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1618.3486306172465 is not greater than 1618.3853788952315. Delta is -0.03674827798499791
Model is not converging.  Current: 1617.8889259332057 is not greater than 1618.0187103839746. Delta is -0.12978445076896605
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                 | 3664/5847 [00:51<00:25, 85.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.9349627021716 is not greater than 1641.5044066515582. Delta is -1.5694439493865957
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                 | 3673/5847 [00:52<00:25, 85.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1638.5321032784866 is not greater than 1638.6211601881496. Delta is -0.08905690966298607
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1632.9496422811892 is not greater than 1633.1862346589323. Delta is -0.23659237774313624
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1636.8601658656942 is not greater than 1637.0519929574225. Delta is -0.19182709172832801
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                 | 3682/5847 [00:52<00:26, 81.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1622.6658490078212 is not greater than 1622.7226051216708. Delta is -0.056756113849587564
Model is not converging.  Current: 1640.438477158175 is not greater than 1640.4553861454792. Delta is -0.0169089873043049
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                | 3691/5847 [00:52<00:26, 81.95it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1622.9251974613471 is not greater than 1623.1085755029376. Delta is -0.18337804159045845
Model is not converging.  Current: 1630.490716094186 is not greater than 1631.3872763028246. Delta is -0.8965602086386752
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                | 3700/5847 [00:52<00:26, 80.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1630.1518566668278 is not greater than 1630.2281310712622. Delta is -0.07627440443434352
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1636.4592758164415 is not greater than 1636.4742179172679. Delta is -0.014942100826374372
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1631.2831764672833 is not greater than 1631.3241106859637. Delta is -0.040934218680376944
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                | 3709/5847 [00:52<00:32, 66.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1622.7161923209367 is not greater than 1622.7690270479616. Delta is -0.05283472702490144
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1641.6968901470964 is not greater than 1641.8433888371023. Delta is -0.14649869000595572
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                | 3718/5847 [00:52<00:31, 66.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1627.5058984341674 is not greater than 1628.6514425122161. Delta is -1.1455440780487152
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1647.0143744072698 is not greater than 1648.4761990359134. Delta is -1.461824628643626
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                               | 3727/5847 [00:52<00:31, 67.69it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1632.622192250223 is not greater than 1632.789014933725. Delta is -0.16682268350200502
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                               | 3734/5847 [00:52<00:31, 66.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1631.4177525739294 is not greater than 1631.7749899261562. Delta is -0.35723735222677533
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1647.5249452909734 is not greater than 1647.569894012239. Delta is -0.04494872126565497
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1644.3577583947733 is not greater than 1644.5420432009744. Delta is -0.18428480620104892
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                               | 3742/5847 [00:53<00:30, 69.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1605.3646881346087 is not greater than 1605.3822701015856. Delta is -0.017581966976877084
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                               | 3750/5847 [00:53<00:29, 70.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1627.3243855015855 is not greater than 1627.6733767170897. Delta is -0.34899121550415657
Model is not converging.  Current: 1641.2052733642845 is not greater than 1641.342976868473. Delta is -0.13770350418849375
Model is not converging.  Current: 1639.4207201729864 is not greater than 1639.8039337818368. Delta is -0.383213608850383
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                               | 3758/5847 [00:53<00:31, 66.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.939878129637 is not greater than 1636.49990190281. Delta is -0.5600237731730431
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  64%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                               | 3767/5847 [00:53<00:28, 72.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.0703454529057 is not greater than 1652.1317034017206. Delta is -0.06135794881492984
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1655.4865366537097 is not greater than 1657.0591834096424. Delta is -1.5726467559327375
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1659.7801921353844 is not greater than 1659.8268428116503. Delta is -0.04665067626592645
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                              | 3775/5847 [00:53<00:28, 71.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1626.5782004315636 is not greater than 1626.8483749782856. Delta is -0.2701745467220462
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                              | 3784/5847 [00:53<00:27, 74.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.8806020680308 is not greater than 1667.9021234889258. Delta is -0.02152142089494191
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1652.02108316996 is not greater than 1654.748712893824. Delta is -2.7276297238638563
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                              | 3793/5847 [00:53<00:28, 71.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1670.9965452860818 is not greater than 1671.0907363486267. Delta is -0.09419106254495091
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1651.9639819221384 is not greater than 1652.1998727412088. Delta is -0.23589081907039144
Model is not converging.  Current: 1678.7655881802134 is not greater than 1678.893109919425. Delta is -0.12752173921148824
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                              | 3802/5847 [00:53<00:30, 67.66it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1655.3207743365035 is not greater than 1655.6353595376052. Delta is -0.3145852011016359
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1670.5139400581431 is not greater than 1670.6208597961422. Delta is -0.10691973799907828
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                              | 3811/5847 [00:54<00:28, 71.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1646.841860779593 is not greater than 1647.458095884364. Delta is -0.6162351047710217
Model is not converging.  Current: 1670.63393533008 is not greater than 1670.6536782280295. Delta is -0.019742897949527105
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                             | 3819/5847 [00:54<00:28, 70.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1690.9166634376393 is not greater than 1693.0864336106076. Delta is -2.169770172968356
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  65%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                             | 3827/5847 [00:54<00:27, 72.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1685.4605390363474 is not greater than 1685.4962823787275. Delta is -0.03574334238010124
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  66%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                             | 3835/5847 [00:54<00:27, 73.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  66%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                             | 3844/5847 [00:54<00:27, 72.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1664.0856191334549 is not greater than 1664.11233082743. Delta is -0.0267116939751304
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  66%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                             | 3853/5847 [00:54<00:25, 76.94it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1684.935289767698 is not greater than 1685.0500407823013. Delta is -0.114751014603371
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1698.2381444852917 is not greater than 1699.4392509140905. Delta is -1.2011064287987665
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1687.816293238781 is not greater than 1687.9345117863375. Delta is -0.11821854755635286
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  66%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                            | 3862/5847 [00:54<00:24, 79.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1697.5712106431758 is not greater than 1697.723115113302. Delta is -0.15190447012605546
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1688.9771403095015 is not greater than 1689.0444925886022. Delta is -0.06735227910075992
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1683.497760300934 is not greater than 1683.7247349123454. Delta is -0.22697461141137865
Model is not converging.  Current: 1690.1477468528808 is not greater than 1691.3381205515518. Delta is -1.19037369867101
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  66%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                            | 3874/5847 [00:54<00:22, 87.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1686.5679567836858 is not greater than 1686.6930036333574. Delta is -0.12504684967166213
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1693.7959747578896 is not greater than 1694.9471066498463. Delta is -1.1511318919567657
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  66%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                            | 3883/5847 [00:54<00:22, 87.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.0199258233322 is not greater than 1695.116781831069. Delta is -0.09685600773673286
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1691.613774614106 is not greater than 1691.6684063991297. Delta is -0.05463178502373012
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  67%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                            | 3892/5847 [00:54<00:22, 86.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1693.6211948457685 is not greater than 1693.732566239137. Delta is -0.11137139336847213
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1676.8115046214627 is not greater than 1677.6137495707098. Delta is -0.8022449492470969
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.2497716355294 is not greater than 1695.31627020706. Delta is -0.06649857153047378
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                            | 3901/5847 [00:55<00:22, 85.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1703.615849428987 is not greater than 1705.4230682988048. Delta is -1.8072188698176888
Model is not converging.  Current: 1704.102988688388 is not greater than 1704.1065947636941. Delta is -0.003606075306151979
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1701.168296550341 is not greater than 1702.974057224255. Delta is -1.8057606739139374
Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.0376565604754 is not greater than 1695.0513443511145. Delta is -0.01368779063909642
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                           | 3913/5847 [00:55<00:22, 87.52it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1701.235632149165 is not greater than 1701.4366721579852. Delta is -0.20104000882020046
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                           | 3925/5847 [00:55<00:21, 88.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1711.3124938600213 is not greater than 1713.4356170223382. Delta is -2.123123162316915
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1679.7619245085768 is not greater than 1679.814051524581. Delta is -0.05212701600407854
Model is not converging.  Current: 1709.3481229618385 is not greater than 1712.3048624532937. Delta is -2.9567394914552096
Model is not converging.  Current: 1716.8297407296695 is not greater than 1718.5959140351163. Delta is -1.7661733054467277
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  67%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                           | 3937/5847 [00:55<00:20, 92.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1729.2144528461808 is not greater than 1731.6639571758453. Delta is -2.449504329664478
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1701.6671901801515 is not greater than 1701.969318264028. Delta is -0.30212808387659607
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1736.0610394346681 is not greater than 1736.2025632232464. Delta is -0.14152378857829717
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1735.6663441118599 is not greater than 1738.2087737909767. Delta is -2.5424296791168217
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                          | 3949/5847 [00:55<00:20, 94.11it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1744.773179418926 is not greater than 1745.5143776453253. Delta is -0.7411982263993195
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1743.5680399812647 is not greater than 1744.7376335733995. Delta is -1.1695935921347882
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1727.8255572701203 is not greater than 1728.5929939585583. Delta is -0.7674366884380106
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                          | 3961/5847 [00:55<00:19, 94.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1751.977946672545 is not greater than 1752.0526820720843. Delta is -0.0747353995393496
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1755.7658159353691 is not greater than 1758.8922870629003. Delta is -3.126471127531204
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                          | 3971/5847 [00:55<00:20, 91.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1703.3462267904492 is not greater than 1703.3810084202157. Delta is -0.03478162976648491
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1772.298718501767 is not greater than 1772.923718547727. Delta is -0.6250000459599505
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1764.7435669382396 is not greater than 1765.1081965900505. Delta is -0.3646296518109011
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  68%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                          | 3981/5847 [00:55<00:20, 92.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1733.5643142891427 is not greater than 1733.8576229977327. Delta is -0.2933087085900752
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1732.6231573682562 is not greater than 1733.0111373995796. Delta is -0.38798003132342274
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1762.0715433915263 is not greater than 1764.3442993137537. Delta is -2.2727559222273612
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  68%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                          | 3991/5847 [00:56<00:21, 86.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1790.3890782412664 is not greater than 1796.124216160108. Delta is -5.735137918841701
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1790.8344479936297 is not greater than 1795.9622054019792. Delta is -5.127757408349453
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  68%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                         | 4000/5847 [00:56<00:21, 86.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1770.961883856713 is not greater than 1771.081018912091. Delta is -0.11913505537791025
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1745.3310414018265 is not greater than 1745.7150943832544. Delta is -0.38405298142788524
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1780.2672003732723 is not greater than 1781.601962153324. Delta is -1.3347617800516218
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1751.1214771429775 is not greater than 1751.3699709972232. Delta is -0.24849385424568027
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  69%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                         | 4012/5847 [00:56<00:20, 88.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1757.017824965689 is not greater than 1758.2696087155666. Delta is -1.2517837498776316
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1760.1001926565448 is not greater than 1760.4595256580992. Delta is -0.3593330015544325
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1763.9987735830189 is not greater than 1764.0115468704. Delta is -0.012773287381151022
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  69%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                         | 4021/5847 [00:56<00:20, 87.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1822.085321640491 is not greater than 1826.7743795317417. Delta is -4.689057891250741
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  69%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                         | 4030/5847 [00:56<00:20, 86.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1831.7400390956832 is not greater than 1835.55961585143. Delta is -3.819576755746766
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1787.910618320436 is not greater than 1788.033341001825. Delta is -0.12272268138895015
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1792.1224653969807 is not greater than 1792.41236788475. Delta is -0.2899024877692682
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  69%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                        | 4039/5847 [00:56<00:21, 85.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1849.3918793094513 is not greater than 1849.552609623395. Delta is -0.16073031394375903
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1851.5622327986528 is not greater than 1851.7808208890924. Delta is -0.21858809043965266
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1806.1038216081447 is not greater than 1806.1435898041009. Delta is -0.03976819595618508
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1851.4419839532427 is not greater than 1851.6747368844553. Delta is -0.2327529312126444
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  69%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                        | 4051/5847 [00:56<00:20, 87.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1852.3869295590541 is not greater than 1852.419164016743. Delta is -0.032234457688900875
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1851.5121621506783 is not greater than 1852.3566959287882. Delta is -0.8445337781099624
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1852.0449421737758 is not greater than 1854.868201898199. Delta is -2.823259724423224
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1855.0721829148229 is not greater than 1855.199682168549. Delta is -0.12749925372622783
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  69%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                        | 4063/5847 [00:56<00:19, 89.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1851.7589238152004 is not greater than 1852.6615381740548. Delta is -0.9026143588544073
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1795.3066359908585 is not greater than 1795.7939400565467. Delta is -0.48730406568824947
Model is not converging.  Current: 1849.3741620972157 is not greater than 1849.616914855739. Delta is -0.2427527585232383
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  70%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                        | 4072/5847 [00:57<00:20, 86.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1849.3647552332948 is not greater than 1849.4046698368313. Delta is -0.039914603536544746
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1844.4615529750902 is not greater than 1844.9084895304195. Delta is -0.4469365553293301
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                       | 4081/5847 [00:57<00:20, 86.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1839.700600440519 is not greater than 1840.921007853013. Delta is -1.2204074124938415
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                       | 4090/5847 [00:57<00:21, 82.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1766.286154596294 is not greater than 1766.5459480594873. Delta is -0.25979346319331853
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1824.5065797076293 is not greater than 1827.3837742014798. Delta is -2.8771944938505385
Model is not converging.  Current: 1758.977995221287 is not greater than 1759.0402235939825. Delta is -0.06222837269547199
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                       | 4102/5847 [00:57<00:20, 84.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1816.9473091496525 is not greater than 1816.983832920294. Delta is -0.03652377064145185
Model is not converging.  Current: 1768.2868070225684 is not greater than 1768.6851170798743. Delta is -0.3983100573059346
Model is not converging.  Current: 1813.163573138984 is not greater than 1813.4823798923162. Delta is -0.3188067533321828
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                       | 4111/5847 [00:57<00:22, 76.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1722.673206544621 is not greater than 1723.179712267379. Delta is -0.5065057227579928
Model is not converging.  Current: 1815.3250340462296 is not greater than 1816.4432431414334. Delta is -1.118209095203838
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1772.617977516479 is not greater than 1774.4802132695788. Delta is -1.862235753099867
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                       | 4123/5847 [00:57<00:20, 82.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1781.0916166136667 is not greater than 1781.184461635665. Delta is -0.09284502199830058
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                      | 4132/5847 [00:57<00:21, 78.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1813.2207141479475 is not greater than 1813.2441500314558. Delta is -0.023435883508227562
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                      | 4141/5847 [00:57<00:21, 80.15it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1824.957614860201 is not greater than 1826.8469832582562. Delta is -1.8893683980552396
Model is not converging.  Current: 1776.4809223496218 is not greater than 1777.242703524861. Delta is -0.7617811752393209
Model is not converging.  Current: 1825.3228713152823 is not greater than 1826.195073252199. Delta is -0.872201936916781
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                      | 4153/5847 [00:57<00:19, 88.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1830.9281499328556 is not greater than 1835.462101550126. Delta is -4.533951617270304
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  71%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                      | 4165/5847 [00:58<00:18, 92.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1826.8864329696041 is not greater than 1829.6728277625202. Delta is -2.7863947929160986
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1825.8132441155087 is not greater than 1827.4252918669445. Delta is -1.612047751435739
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  71%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                     | 4177/5847 [00:58<00:18, 92.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1826.3419937657634 is not greater than 1826.3629053170068. Delta is -0.020911551243443682
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1771.741029028293 is not greater than 1771.7552396882381. Delta is -0.01421065994509263
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1820.8261496873097 is not greater than 1823.1226459746374. Delta is -2.2964962873277273
Model is not converging.  Current: 1779.1753962921196 is not greater than 1780.0832495120712. Delta is -0.9078532199516758
Model is not converging.  Current: 1768.7271232716234 is not greater than 1769.2498043231153. Delta is -0.5226810514918725
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  72%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                     | 4192/5847 [00:58<00:16, 101.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1825.1875267212872 is not greater than 1825.2916061235208. Delta is -0.10407940223353762
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  72%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                     | 4203/5847 [00:58<00:17, 95.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1751.023481370383 is not greater than 1752.7432936806413. Delta is -1.7198123102582485
Model is not converging.  Current: 1778.9296724632786 is not greater than 1779.271208937522. Delta is -0.34153647424341216
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1839.8281254346532 is not greater than 1840.0437905715846. Delta is -0.21566513693142042
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  72%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                     | 4213/5847 [00:58<00:18, 87.50it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1847.7528044223116 is not greater than 1848.2383745377588. Delta is -0.4855701154472172
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  72%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                    | 4225/5847 [00:58<00:18, 87.89it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1828.6579143622396 is not greater than 1828.658496727839. Delta is -0.0005823655994845467
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  72%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                    | 4237/5847 [00:58<00:17, 89.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1714.6679550744423 is not greater than 1714.8308772769092. Delta is -0.16292220246691613
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  73%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                    | 4247/5847 [00:59<00:17, 90.12it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                    | 4257/5847 [00:59<00:17, 89.66it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1780.5382922931337 is not greater than 1780.9573459276617. Delta is -0.419053634527927
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                   | 4266/5847 [00:59<00:17, 88.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1792.6449068295315 is not greater than 1792.7466793768224. Delta is -0.10177254729092056
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1756.166255800296 is not greater than 1756.6556491467873. Delta is -0.4893933464911697
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                   | 4276/5847 [00:59<00:18, 87.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1763.5476526509428 is not greater than 1766.5573060538213. Delta is -3.0096534028784845
Model is not converging.  Current: 1775.8096553967107 is not greater than 1775.8171891232614. Delta is -0.007533726550718711
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1747.388232507134 is not greater than 1747.8527224104296. Delta is -0.4644899032955436
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                   | 4288/5847 [00:59<00:17, 89.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1739.8012731549056 is not greater than 1742.8089039621007. Delta is -3.007630807195028
Model is not converging.  Current: 1691.100252818659 is not greater than 1691.1603744119577. Delta is -0.06012159329861788
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  73%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                   | 4297/5847 [00:59<00:17, 88.06it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  74%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                  | 4306/5847 [00:59<00:18, 83.43it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1737.7323210311492 is not greater than 1742.3003443166524. Delta is -4.568023285503159
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  74%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                  | 4318/5847 [00:59<00:17, 86.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1699.507573454648 is not greater than 1699.9124262245107. Delta is -0.4048527698626003
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1675.3736227041277 is not greater than 1675.4908856301354. Delta is -0.11726292600769739
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  74%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                  | 4330/5847 [00:59<00:16, 91.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1736.2137424599255 is not greater than 1738.6009510915974. Delta is -2.3872086316719106
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1725.2906633173623 is not greater than 1726.1280107747484. Delta is -0.8373474573861586
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  74%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                  | 4342/5847 [01:00<00:15, 95.16it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  74%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                 | 4352/5847 [01:00<00:15, 93.71it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1673.6134319453233 is not greater than 1674.0476376090992. Delta is -0.434205663775856
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  75%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                 | 4362/5847 [01:00<00:15, 94.69it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1680.3582906379995 is not greater than 1681.2577121284792. Delta is -0.8994214904796536
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  75%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                 | 4372/5847 [01:00<00:16, 88.33it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1679.6277902531244 is not greater than 1680.7909128216427. Delta is -1.1631225685182471
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  75%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                 | 4384/5847 [01:00<00:16, 89.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1713.9468853828496 is not greater than 1714.214250616585. Delta is -0.2673652337355179
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1631.9215906109055 is not greater than 1632.326071624364. Delta is -0.40448101345850773
Model is not converging.  Current: 1669.3751824530962 is not greater than 1669.5464180161086. Delta is -0.17123556301248755
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  75%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                | 4396/5847 [01:00<00:15, 94.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1659.8444713205029 is not greater than 1660.2057343428098. Delta is -0.3612630223069573
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1662.7321668850086 is not greater than 1662.743219240189. Delta is -0.011052355180481754
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  75%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                | 4406/5847 [01:00<00:15, 94.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1703.499980923881 is not greater than 1704.7397970999593. Delta is -1.2398161760784205
Model is not converging.  Current: 1660.3480655570365 is not greater than 1660.6420142636907. Delta is -0.2939487066541915
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1660.2315932597778 is not greater than 1660.3131250566398. Delta is -0.08153179686200929
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                | 4417/5847 [01:00<00:15, 93.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1678.193914022183 is not greater than 1678.284085091619. Delta is -0.09017106943610997
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.24634643498 is not greater than 1695.824148170045. Delta is -0.5778017350648952
Model is not converging.  Current: 1686.1406642272334 is not greater than 1686.7691429782237. Delta is -0.6284787509903254
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                | 4429/5847 [01:00<00:14, 96.49it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1694.8017231140802 is not greater than 1696.6164177637622. Delta is -1.8146946496819965
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  76%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                               | 4439/5847 [01:01<00:14, 97.30it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1686.7837507896481 is not greater than 1688.8380258382144. Delta is -2.0542750485662964
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  76%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                               | 4450/5847 [01:01<00:14, 94.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1666.807022616137 is not greater than 1667.5603905634075. Delta is -0.7533679472705899
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.2980148379565 is not greater than 1667.5811583704478. Delta is -0.28314353249129454
Model is not converging.  Current: 1612.913238322943 is not greater than 1612.9290168126815. Delta is -0.015778489738522694
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  76%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                               | 4462/5847 [01:01<00:15, 91.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1609.4549685048357 is not greater than 1609.470108645039. Delta is -0.015140140203357078
Model is not converging.  Current: 1627.5164144708601 is not greater than 1627.8658511323883. Delta is -0.34943666152821606
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1661.1225454488426 is not greater than 1661.7836995334044. Delta is -0.6611540845617583
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1662.1435368028194 is not greater than 1664.2918331532005. Delta is -2.148296350381088
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                               | 4474/5847 [01:01<00:14, 93.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1657.913025190396 is not greater than 1657.950595953018. Delta is -0.03757076262195369
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1621.8893318232995 is not greater than 1622.3955150957318. Delta is -0.5061832724322812
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                              | 4484/5847 [01:01<00:14, 93.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1628.1206784720844 is not greater than 1628.2546570630864. Delta is -0.1339785910020055
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1668.9128439814267 is not greater than 1669.3112090614118. Delta is -0.3983650799850693
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.4822528508612 is not greater than 1665.2850798825252. Delta is -1.8028270316640373
Model is not converging.  Current: 1660.4812249241436 is not greater than 1662.468870842267. Delta is -1.9876459181234623
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                              | 4495/5847 [01:01<00:14, 93.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.616600617862 is not greater than 1623.7124747196249. Delta is -0.09587410176277444
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                              | 4505/5847 [01:01<00:14, 93.54it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1675.3102617528637 is not greater than 1676.0741301405278. Delta is -0.7638683876641608
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1625.5908514990153 is not greater than 1626.183469553219. Delta is -0.59261805420374
Model is not converging.  Current: 1649.4510915757016 is not greater than 1649.8050088858845. Delta is -0.353917310182851
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1625.0222938516902 is not greater than 1625.123749666419. Delta is -0.10145581472875165
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                              | 4516/5847 [01:01<00:14, 89.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.4305717563898 is not greater than 1600.2489479923051. Delta is -0.8183762359153661
Model is not converging.  Current: 1656.6833374334367 is not greater than 1657.8956189753653. Delta is -1.2122815419286326
Model is not converging.  Current: 1658.4400728347832 is not greater than 1660.149803638505. Delta is -1.7097308037218681
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.5885798152 is not greater than 1665.2678820721494. Delta is -1.6793022569493132
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  77%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                             | 4528/5847 [01:02<00:14, 90.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1631.4021385304013 is not greater than 1631.419261876879. Delta is -0.01712334647777425
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1635.2683497539122 is not greater than 1635.9333423604721. Delta is -0.664992606559963
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1657.6714128240262 is not greater than 1658.5402918467714. Delta is -0.8688790227452046
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1662.0124516483147 is not greater than 1663.3604058169105. Delta is -1.3479541685958338
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  78%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                             | 4540/5847 [01:02<00:14, 92.94it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1621.5111378697782 is not greater than 1622.0123141275553. Delta is -0.5011762577771606
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  78%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                             | 4550/5847 [01:02<00:14, 86.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1658.7765672460212 is not greater than 1659.0668332397709. Delta is -0.2902659937496992
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1612.2806794682751 is not greater than 1612.6317687858718. Delta is -0.3510893175966885
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1637.1797536642139 is not greater than 1637.195339674693. Delta is -0.015586010479182733
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  78%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                             | 4559/5847 [01:02<00:15, 84.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1634.569953815616 is not greater than 1634.5976847240404. Delta is -0.027730908424473455
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1638.5308926228895 is not greater than 1639.4000845269688. Delta is -0.8691919040793437
Model is not converging.  Current: 1668.5125910347836 is not greater than 1670.0472712943695. Delta is -1.5346802595859117
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  78%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                            | 4568/5847 [01:02<00:15, 84.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1667.5091973787444 is not greater than 1669.6341722673244. Delta is -2.1249748885800273
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.7345560336314 is not greater than 1624.1913938313105. Delta is -0.4568377976790998
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  78%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                            | 4579/5847 [01:02<00:15, 83.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1649.929788594311 is not greater than 1652.1708198626397. Delta is -2.2410312683286975
Model is not converging.  Current: 1615.974865941174 is not greater than 1616.0131354566406. Delta is -0.03826951546670898
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  78%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                            | 4588/5847 [01:02<00:16, 74.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1623.7312384094178 is not greater than 1624.3911227294284. Delta is -0.659884320010633

🛑 Panic mode ACTIVÉ le 2020-03-16 00:00:00

Model is not converging.  Current: 1627.0769951224358 is not greater than 1627.1107071759266. Delta is -0.03371205349071715
Model is not converging.  Current: 1627.7033000853603 is not greater than 1629.1618307244128. Delta is -1.4585306390524693
Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.9324033318721 is not greater than 1584.9791755015315. Delta is -1.0467721696593344
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  79%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                            | 4600/5847 [01:02<00:15, 82.77it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  79%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                            | 4609/5847 [01:03<00:16, 74.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1591.7443636218125 is not greater than 1592.0675443410912. Delta is -0.3231807192787528
Model is not converging.  Current: 1592.9706261014942 is not greater than 1593.972098361667. Delta is -1.0014722601727044
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  79%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                           | 4618/5847 [01:03<00:16, 73.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  79%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                           | 4626/5847 [01:03<00:17, 69.07it/s]

✅ Panic mode DÉSACTIVÉ le 2020-04-30 00:00:00

Model is not converging.  Current: 1578.1520697223934 is not greater than 1578.8806698660644. Delta is -0.7286001436709739
Model is not converging.  Current: 1565.5622946213357 is not greater than 1565.7776453511692. Delta is -0.2153507298335171
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  79%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                           | 4634/5847 [01:03<00:18, 65.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.6909309209843 is not greater than 1558.345834883672. Delta is -0.6549039626877402
Model is not converging.  Current: 1566.0979613987981 is not greater than 1566.1060871884126. Delta is -0.00812578961449617
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  79%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                           | 4642/5847 [01:03<00:17, 67.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                           | 4656/5847 [01:03<00:23, 51.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.7158883324714 is not greater than 1544.8771058260552. Delta is -0.16121749358376292
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                          | 4668/5847 [01:04<00:21, 53.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.0677376182746 is not greater than 1551.0684409562377. Delta is -0.0007033379631593561
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                          | 4675/5847 [01:04<00:23, 49.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.0067968508192 is not greater than 1517.2343196528416. Delta is -0.22752280202234942
Model is not converging.  Current: 1546.7831215440822 is not greater than 1547.4614853858861. Delta is -0.6783638418039573
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.3184220943488 is not greater than 1538.4624590439657. Delta is -0.1440369496169751
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                          | 4684/5847 [01:04<00:21, 54.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.0780259503777 is not greater than 1539.2404305256728. Delta is -0.16240457529511332
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                          | 4690/5847 [01:04<00:24, 47.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.5929509554705 is not greater than 1526.6225651217442. Delta is -0.02961416627363178
Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.0107601764587 is not greater than 1525.3384413825702. Delta is -0.32768120611149243
Model is not converging.  Current: 1530.7902684175685 is not greater than 1531.2970655461413. Delta is -0.5067971285727708
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  80%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                         | 4702/5847 [01:04<00:19, 59.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.9274472453249 is not greater than 1483.941905638103. Delta is -0.014458392778124107
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                         | 4709/5847 [01:04<00:18, 60.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1512.1763255190153 is not greater than 1512.1916473926574. Delta is -0.015321873642051287
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                         | 4716/5847 [01:05<00:19, 57.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.8282485599393 is not greater than 1521.894250055154. Delta is -1.0660014952147776
Model is not converging.  Current: 1502.4962802026937 is not greater than 1503.4512159120686. Delta is -0.9549357093749222
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                         | 4723/5847 [01:05<00:19, 59.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.0511826991826 is not greater than 1517.1592744555576. Delta is -0.10809175637496082
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                         | 4730/5847 [01:05<00:18, 59.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1513.1455421641797 is not greater than 1513.2405202800023. Delta is -0.09497811582264148
Model is not converging.  Current: 1532.7519311027497 is not greater than 1532.8783806976255. Delta is -0.126449594875794
Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.1324351216026 is not greater than 1525.2270705442593. Delta is -0.09463542265666547
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                         | 4738/5847 [01:05<00:17, 64.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.7576514544455 is not greater than 1483.8060958553249. Delta is -0.04844440087936164
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                         | 4745/5847 [01:05<00:17, 63.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.4486769031473 is not greater than 1524.627984848382. Delta is -0.17930794523476834
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                        | 4752/5847 [01:05<00:17, 62.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.196469361624 is not greater than 1495.6437764392738. Delta is -0.4473070776498389
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.0352879666434 is not greater than 1524.6721112243174. Delta is -0.6368232576739956
Model is not converging.  Current: 1522.6095961986387 is not greater than 1522.945347035511. Delta is -0.33575083687242113
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  81%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                        | 4759/5847 [01:05<00:18, 60.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1527.7086453977315 is not greater than 1528.1719244191925. Delta is -0.46327902146094857
Model is not converging.  Current: 1504.3300466424794 is not greater than 1504.4000324346537. Delta is -0.06998579217429324
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.542477943823 is not greater than 1538.8421451925942. Delta is -0.2996672487711294
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                        | 4771/5847 [01:05<00:14, 72.03it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.7034049986378 is not greater than 1528.9757122105734. Delta is -0.2723072119356402
Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.6227807730909 is not greater than 1552.8152482357202. Delta is -0.19246746262933812
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                        | 4780/5847 [01:05<00:14, 75.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1558.5868363977022 is not greater than 1559.2436131736752. Delta is -0.6567767759729577
Model is not converging.  Current: 1546.4829784370131 is not greater than 1546.6219733671107. Delta is -0.1389949300976241
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                        | 4789/5847 [01:06<00:16, 65.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1561.0841636269527 is not greater than 1561.294655254858. Delta is -0.21049162790541232
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.2377534682778 is not greater than 1557.5508913266924. Delta is -0.3131378584146205
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                       | 4796/5847 [01:06<00:19, 52.84it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1560.2299805404518 is not greater than 1560.393914814567. Delta is -0.16393427411526318
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                       | 4802/5847 [01:06<00:22, 46.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.5393633864617 is not greater than 1540.1890390103786. Delta is -0.6496756239168917
Model is not converging.  Current: 1545.1325015542907 is not greater than 1545.635584173875. Delta is -0.5030826195843474
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.1784939147235 is not greater than 1549.4780006468952. Delta is -0.2995067321717215
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.0578302477604 is not greater than 1555.2197440280352. Delta is -0.16191378027474457
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                       | 4813/5847 [01:06<00:18, 55.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.2929164755162 is not greater than 1556.4815898888844. Delta is -0.18867341336817844
Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.9644312273062 is not greater than 1526.9918446407353. Delta is -0.027413413429030697
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  82%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                       | 4819/5847 [01:06<00:18, 54.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.8291342529872 is not greater than 1533.9594890022743. Delta is -0.13035474928710755
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  83%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                       | 4825/5847 [01:06<00:19, 52.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.4228659564988 is not greater than 1528.4329261189864. Delta is -0.010060162487661728
Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.1571817784857 is not greater than 1539.1709833399423. Delta is -0.01380156145660294
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.7105112307695 is not greater than 1541.7685439964655. Delta is -0.05803276569599802
Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.754915203295 is not greater than 1519.8380647868612. Delta is -0.08314958356618263
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                      | 4837/5847 [01:07<00:15, 65.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.6455780014667 is not greater than 1516.6938867577749. Delta is -0.048308756308188094
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.5776942920559 is not greater than 1535.6654899177831. Delta is -0.08779562572726718
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.5873765576086 is not greater than 1538.7494444956817. Delta is -0.16206793807305075
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                      | 4849/5847 [01:07<00:14, 70.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1498.9879891180015 is not greater than 1499.116389599108. Delta is -0.12840048110660973
Model is not converging.  Current: 1537.5365313703207 is not greater than 1537.640212509372. Delta is -0.10368113905133214
Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.6267961706 is not greater than 1519.690538892673. Delta is -0.06374272207290232
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.19732123729 is not greater than 1535.356763344132. Delta is -0.15944210684210702
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                      | 4861/5847 [01:07<00:13, 71.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1518.2884419270913 is not greater than 1518.3216416590963. Delta is -0.033199732004959515
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.526725640873 is not greater than 1540.6340984677015. Delta is -0.10737282682839577
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                      | 4870/5847 [01:07<00:13, 74.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.3378955129579 is not greater than 1540.4864060764958. Delta is -0.14851056353791137
Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.6641832019232 is not greater than 1538.2203997263798. Delta is -1.5562165244566586
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.0660653893995 is not greater than 1517.1719977334992. Delta is -0.10593234409975594
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  83%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                     | 4879/5847 [01:07<00:12, 75.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.794332593153 is not greater than 1530.0281600064006. Delta is -0.23382741324758172
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.2091483705847 is not greater than 1541.3694525460442. Delta is -0.16030417545948694
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                     | 4887/5847 [01:07<00:12, 74.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.1974013889828 is not greater than 1516.2500723386831. Delta is -0.05267094970031394
Model is not converging.  Current: 1538.804700017812 is not greater than 1538.9239680946423. Delta is -0.11926807683039442
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.6519640428714 is not greater than 1540.915842975937. Delta is -0.2638789330655982
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                     | 4897/5847 [01:07<00:12, 74.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.4425882622138 is not greater than 1539.461715506295. Delta is -0.019127244081118988
Model is not converging.  Current: 1518.1568478283905 is not greater than 1518.4815423071952. Delta is -0.32469447880475855
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.6569810184958 is not greater than 1540.8216591541686. Delta is -0.16467813567282974
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                     | 4906/5847 [01:07<00:12, 74.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.3633725798056 is not greater than 1533.5316268677334. Delta is -0.1682542879277662
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.2515019652792 is not greater than 1541.3703122627583. Delta is -0.11881029747905814
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                     | 4915/5847 [01:08<00:12, 74.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.2417850145534 is not greater than 1539.5260680215044. Delta is -0.28428300695100006
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.3649103736657 is not greater than 1536.508942672392. Delta is -0.14403229872641532
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.019180338407 is not greater than 1533.3789946903082. Delta is -0.3598143519011501
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1540.415525806367 is not greater than 1540.6415051660183. Delta is -0.2259793596513191
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  84%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                    | 4927/5847 [01:08<00:11, 78.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.663567737873 is not greater than 1543.8385234894565. Delta is -1.1749557515834113
Model is not converging.  Current: 1545.2273307099779 is not greater than 1545.3485187983736. Delta is -0.12118808839568374
Model is not converging.  Current: 1547.474874042717 is not greater than 1547.4926784887525. Delta is -0.01780444603559772
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  84%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                    | 4936/5847 [01:08<00:11, 80.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.0114112644285 is not greater than 1556.1949716939282. Delta is -0.18356042949972107
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  85%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                    | 4945/5847 [01:08<00:12, 74.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1554.7268160856468 is not greater than 1555.456078226279. Delta is -0.7292621406322723
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  85%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                    | 4954/5847 [01:08<00:11, 76.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.39821808583 is not greater than 1553.5015476623519. Delta is -0.10332957652190089
Model is not converging.  Current: 1556.221246005084 is not greater than 1556.365379204029. Delta is -0.14413319894515553
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.213823770431 is not greater than 1555.8008293735406. Delta is -0.5870056031096738
Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.2186171066448 is not greater than 1551.4715303980124. Delta is -0.2529132913675767
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  85%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                    | 4966/5847 [01:08<00:10, 83.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1539.4852953008308 is not greater than 1539.497886953664. Delta is -0.012591652833179978
Model is not converging.  Current: 1557.1170385588916 is not greater than 1557.2248802738873. Delta is -0.10784171499562945
Model is not converging.  Current: 1551.9154047273962 is not greater than 1552.7720708943727. Delta is -0.8566661669765381
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  85%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                   | 4977/5847 [01:08<00:09, 90.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.0477594095792 is not greater than 1555.4387661263263. Delta is -0.3910067167471425
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.3065444860138 is not greater than 1553.598979927415. Delta is -0.29243544140126687
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.3998604120509 is not greater than 1553.524899365961. Delta is -0.12503895391000697
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.3967642118307 is not greater than 1553.939549716889. Delta is -0.5427855050581911
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  85%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                   | 4987/5847 [01:08<00:11, 75.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.5892547764972 is not greater than 1550.0306051195405. Delta is -0.44135034304326837
Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.025490661252 is not greater than 1535.1632258796694. Delta is -0.13773521841744696
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  85%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                   | 4996/5847 [01:09<00:11, 73.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.9172009247911 is not greater than 1536.0331388659572. Delta is -0.1159379411660666
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.6561564817034 is not greater than 1550.018760393442. Delta is -0.3626039117386881
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  86%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                   | 5004/5847 [01:09<00:11, 75.20it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.463732634846 is not greater than 1553.4850242194686. Delta is -0.021291584622531445
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.647217855624 is not greater than 1542.7655990995424. Delta is -0.11838124391852034
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                  | 5014/5847 [01:09<00:10, 77.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.549019686793 is not greater than 1536.8303423115306. Delta is -0.2813226247376406
Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.1011162348993 is not greater than 1526.2025739281692. Delta is -0.1014576932698219
Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.4030481136044 is not greater than 1524.4535131423997. Delta is -0.05046502879531545
Model is not converging.  Current: 1518.952396193161 is not greater than 1519.1053882223798. Delta is -0.15299202921892174
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                  | 5026/5847 [01:09<00:09, 83.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1532.0872246794818 is not greater than 1532.1595874630061. Delta is -0.07236278352434056
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                  | 5035/5847 [01:09<00:09, 84.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.7029521572185 is not greater than 1531.7961513509142. Delta is -0.09319919369568197
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1531.5220846010877 is not greater than 1531.6389625611953. Delta is -0.11687796010755847
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  86%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                  | 5044/5847 [01:09<00:11, 71.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1524.305694521584 is not greater than 1524.4835673212863. Delta is -0.17787279970229974
Model is not converging.  Current: 1528.1219161672855 is not greater than 1528.235696213813. Delta is -0.11378004652760865
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  86%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                  | 5053/5847 [01:09<00:10, 74.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1522.423541785341 is not greater than 1522.4604982957037. Delta is -0.0369565103626428
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.7422480855132 is not greater than 1520.798339055832. Delta is -0.05609097031879173
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1519.7798325938527 is not greater than 1519.8340878627625. Delta is -0.05425526890985566
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                 | 5062/5847 [01:09<00:10, 74.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.3916565961001 is not greater than 1520.459197186237. Delta is -0.0675405901367867
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                 | 5070/5847 [01:10<00:11, 68.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                 | 5078/5847 [01:10<00:12, 61.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1536.3766478725033 is not greater than 1536.4115404705044. Delta is -0.03489259800107902
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                 | 5085/5847 [01:10<00:12, 61.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                 | 5092/5847 [01:10<00:12, 61.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.9469990884088 is not greater than 1551.1188278554657. Delta is -0.17182876705692252
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.5751439884184 is not greater than 1555.5953467085274. Delta is -0.020202720108954964
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.7694481412893 is not greater than 1559.875663703885. Delta is -0.10621556259570752
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                | 5101/5847 [01:10<00:11, 66.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1564.3793616856167 is not greater than 1564.454159202317. Delta is -0.07479751670030055
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1570.3096271814527 is not greater than 1570.5643652473889. Delta is -0.25473806593618065
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  87%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                | 5110/5847 [01:10<00:10, 70.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1570.7128851778677 is not greater than 1570.915971361626. Delta is -0.20308618375815968
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1571.7817816692775 is not greater than 1571.864003375901. Delta is -0.08222170662338613
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1544.7009338038888 is not greater than 1544.748437131429. Delta is -0.04750332754019837
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                | 5119/5847 [01:10<00:09, 74.97it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.3268892460558 is not greater than 1559.7199400437453. Delta is -0.39305079768951146
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                | 5128/5847 [01:10<00:09, 75.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1560.6131799782033 is not greater than 1560.8176235775443. Delta is -0.2044435993409479
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1542.0477960125402 is not greater than 1542.1094579740327. Delta is -0.06166196149251846
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1561.171857810839 is not greater than 1561.3026202932408. Delta is -0.1307624824019058
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1543.618500810115 is not greater than 1543.6567609091453. Delta is -0.0382600990303672
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  88%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                | 5140/5847 [01:11<00:08, 84.98it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1555.5446077595789 is not greater than 1555.7127892692072. Delta is -0.1681815096283117
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1527.4160911906172 is not greater than 1527.6795193634523. Delta is -0.26342817283511977
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  88%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏               | 5149/5847 [01:11<00:08, 83.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.0010016053411 is not greater than 1541.064340620405. Delta is -0.06333901506377515
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.4732947327147 is not greater than 1533.5003456749032. Delta is -0.02705094218845261
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  88%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍               | 5158/5847 [01:11<00:08, 85.31it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1562.23934804456 is not greater than 1562.440388617785. Delta is -0.2010405732248728
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1550.3328727354053 is not greater than 1550.3512509962623. Delta is -0.018378260856934503
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  88%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋               | 5167/5847 [01:11<00:08, 84.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1529.509499257985 is not greater than 1529.5288879527334. Delta is -0.019388694748386115
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1527.7923205716304 is not greater than 1527.8377919918241. Delta is -0.04547142019373496
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.195402614687 is not greater than 1526.3995991180661. Delta is -0.20419650337908024
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  89%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉               | 5179/5847 [01:11<00:07, 83.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1535.6346735201216 is not greater than 1535.6387792389355. Delta is -0.004105718813889325
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.3362521601057 is not greater than 1533.38722014669. Delta is -0.0509679865842827
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  89%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████               | 5188/5847 [01:11<00:08, 81.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.525706907727 is not greater than 1527.6291987402017. Delta is -1.103491832474674
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.4046338106232 is not greater than 1516.4508947480524. Delta is -0.046260937429224214
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  89%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍              | 5200/5847 [01:11<00:07, 83.36it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.2556533962497 is not greater than 1523.313591706583. Delta is -0.057938310333383924
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  89%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌              | 5209/5847 [01:11<00:07, 80.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1507.3574962892174 is not greater than 1507.3775756422656. Delta is -0.020079353048231496
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1533.7381281565183 is not greater than 1534.246014664788. Delta is -0.5078865082696211
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  89%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊              | 5218/5847 [01:11<00:07, 79.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.778392658811 is not greater than 1521.607560467741. Delta is -0.8291678089299239
Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.9278082052017 is not greater than 1515.1816821033412. Delta is -0.2538738981395454
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1522.8556765094409 is not greater than 1522.9232976841279. Delta is -0.06762117468701945
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  89%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████              | 5227/5847 [01:12<00:07, 78.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.3095508470306 is not greater than 1517.4587320948667. Delta is -0.14918124783616804
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1511.1487178727737 is not greater than 1511.2096976952157. Delta is -0.060979822442050136
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏             | 5236/5847 [01:12<00:07, 81.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.4794038528378 is not greater than 1526.6744682382089. Delta is -1.1950643853710972
Model is not converging.  Current: 1522.7704108407195 is not greater than 1522.7833760833364. Delta is -0.012965242616928663
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍             | 5245/5847 [01:12<00:07, 80.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1512.969501219916 is not greater than 1513.6106246856077. Delta is -0.6411234656916349
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1499.023653329529 is not greater than 1499.1542076199971. Delta is -0.13055429046812606
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌             | 5254/5847 [01:12<00:07, 82.60it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1510.5438506857613 is not greater than 1511.0339956842959. Delta is -0.4901449985345607
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊             | 5263/5847 [01:12<00:07, 82.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.415410328246 is not greater than 1494.448530567798. Delta is -0.03312023955186305
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1507.5701642799181 is not greater than 1507.7833023830178. Delta is -0.21313810309970904
Model is not converging.  Current: 1503.1695958747293 is not greater than 1503.4672899766338. Delta is -0.29769410190442613
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  90%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████             | 5274/5847 [01:12<00:06, 89.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.1749581312097 is not greater than 1494.3426331228363. Delta is -0.16767499162665445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.1108183961182 is not greater than 1495.4138453460369. Delta is -0.30302694991860335
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.2570592991603 is not greater than 1488.262703546943. Delta is -0.005644247782583989
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.6472869006163 is not greater than 1496.3137837744612. Delta is -0.6664968738448351
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  90%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎            | 5284/5847 [01:12<00:06, 80.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.3428763132645 is not greater than 1495.5242732985228. Delta is -0.18139698525828862
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.3482369919197 is not greater than 1501.5155260923711. Delta is -0.16728910045139855
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.9209534953648 is not greater than 1493.948898277196. Delta is -0.027944781831138243
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  91%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍            | 5293/5847 [01:12<00:06, 80.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.4817154556263 is not greater than 1488.6227016675862. Delta is -0.14098621195989836
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.2725534752178 is not greater than 1495.3173307513334. Delta is -0.04477727611561022
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1497.998338538006 is not greater than 1498.1664694891867. Delta is -0.16813095118072852
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  91%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊            | 5305/5847 [01:12<00:06, 87.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1478.6081020537365 is not greater than 1478.6430317765696. Delta is -0.034929722833112464
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.554206749382 is not greater than 1491.584826345456. Delta is -0.030619596073847788
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1479.6606745285515 is not greater than 1479.7919783674736. Delta is -0.13130383892212194
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  91%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████            | 5317/5847 [01:13<00:05, 89.98it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.066496099099 is not greater than 1488.2010956460108. Delta is -0.13459954691188614
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.259686375403 is not greater than 1490.269369429955. Delta is -0.009683054552169779
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.30660756633 is not greater than 1496.5019327289751. Delta is -0.1953251626450765
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  91%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎           | 5329/5847 [01:13<00:05, 93.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.7513426887192 is not greater than 1488.7894405414645. Delta is -0.03809785274529531
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.1754718676452 is not greater than 1487.2177750052085. Delta is -0.04230313756329451
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.2570888785108 is not greater than 1492.966331321568. Delta is -0.7092424430572919
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  91%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌           | 5339/5847 [01:13<00:05, 92.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1486.9249699546401 is not greater than 1487.4177032630764. Delta is -0.4927333084362999
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.1235170775778 is not greater than 1485.1522118026548. Delta is -0.02869472507700266
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  91%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊           | 5349/5847 [01:13<00:05, 91.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.7242463654109 is not greater than 1488.870272809305. Delta is -0.14602644389424313
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1496.2745985125298 is not greater than 1496.5584911411952. Delta is -0.28389262866539866
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  92%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉           | 5359/5847 [01:13<00:05, 84.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.5825325767498 is not greater than 1485.5830710315183. Delta is -0.0005384547685025609
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.8533262554079 is not greater than 1493.1752679236977. Delta is -0.32194166828980997
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  92%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏          | 5368/5847 [01:13<00:05, 84.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.3588036626302 is not greater than 1488.5960866341616. Delta is -0.23728297153138556
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.2796420290665 is not greater than 1483.3233640842095. Delta is -0.04372205514300731
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.7084291241824 is not greater than 1485.8048376768422. Delta is -0.09640855265979553
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1494.5107493468006 is not greater than 1494.7181720237313. Delta is -0.2074226769307188
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  92%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍          | 5380/5847 [01:13<00:05, 88.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.564497752215 is not greater than 1495.6795200194078. Delta is -0.11502226719289865
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.367261408124 is not greater than 1484.4268277968515. Delta is -0.05956638872748954
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.19548604377 is not greater than 1493.406852568114. Delta is -0.21136652434393
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1492.611595042216 is not greater than 1492.6565301984886. Delta is -0.0449351562724587
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  92%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋          | 5392/5847 [01:13<00:05, 89.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1482.124619365559 is not greater than 1482.1439630893574. Delta is -0.019343723798328938
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.2540306092649 is not greater than 1483.2672742199443. Delta is -0.013243610679410267
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.888152257244 is not greater than 1485.2667660920572. Delta is -0.37861383481322264
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  92%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉          | 5401/5847 [01:14<00:05, 88.29it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.2808505673238 is not greater than 1488.4892356296366. Delta is -0.20838506231280007
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.3116231997944 is not greater than 1484.6210751283986. Delta is -0.3094519286041759
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  93%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏         | 5410/5847 [01:14<00:05, 76.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.9010214115729 is not greater than 1488.923607523041. Delta is -0.02258611146817202
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.2324377736675 is not greater than 1483.4494393402856. Delta is -0.21700156661813708
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  93%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎         | 5419/5847 [01:14<00:05, 77.70it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.0669659871262 is not greater than 1484.1163512472333. Delta is -0.0493852601071012
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1500.3421897123733 is not greater than 1502.2357300563222. Delta is -1.893540343948871
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  93%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌         | 5428/5847 [01:14<00:05, 72.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.30246969168 is not greater than 1490.9273553756946. Delta is -0.6248856840145436
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.3557907020408 is not greater than 1490.4314694417747. Delta is -0.07567873973380301
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.946693327704 is not greater than 1484.2511836058814. Delta is -0.3044902781773544
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  93%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋         | 5437/5847 [01:14<00:05, 73.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.2594741935425 is not greater than 1483.2712359632158. Delta is -0.011761769673285016
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.2168188419898 is not greater than 1491.3398114662975. Delta is -0.12299262430769886
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1475.9074479158132 is not greater than 1475.91751779582. Delta is -0.010069880006767562
Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.4131537073854 is not greater than 1488.317476337535. Delta is -0.9043226301496361
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  93%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████         | 5449/5847 [01:14<00:04, 82.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1477.288537277856 is not greater than 1477.8277378632238. Delta is -0.5392005853677801
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.0370441970033 is not greater than 1489.7350712372518. Delta is -0.6980270402484621
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  93%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏        | 5458/5847 [01:14<00:04, 81.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.2387678925284 is not greater than 1481.240565182351. Delta is -0.0017972898226616962
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1482.3975612820875 is not greater than 1482.4662973335778. Delta is -0.06873605149030482
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  94%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍        | 5467/5847 [01:14<00:04, 77.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.640780883535 is not greater than 1490.5174080698469. Delta is -0.8766271863119073
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1482.8001753519288 is not greater than 1482.811280653025. Delta is -0.01110530109622232
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  94%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌        | 5476/5847 [01:15<00:05, 73.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.1568929288958 is not greater than 1484.1645630120158. Delta is -0.007670083120046911
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1488.2468063868907 is not greater than 1488.4063169687267. Delta is -0.15951058183600253
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  94%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉        | 5488/5847 [01:15<00:04, 82.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.7253884609158 is not greater than 1491.0231837493066. Delta is -0.29779528839071645
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.5990881230205 is not greater than 1493.6657200422555. Delta is -0.06663191923507839
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1486.4938671145114 is not greater than 1486.5404022698312. Delta is -0.04653515531981611
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1485.8128366752162 is not greater than 1486.079089483983. Delta is -0.2662528087666942
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  94%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏       | 5500/5847 [01:15<00:03, 87.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1487.4184642006492 is not greater than 1487.8473911248109. Delta is -0.42892692416171485
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1484.9842664722737 is not greater than 1485.4424239143088. Delta is -0.4581574420351444
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  94%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍       | 5510/5847 [01:15<00:03, 90.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1481.2036037945009 is not greater than 1481.2474946844675. Delta is -0.04389088996663304
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  94%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌       | 5520/5847 [01:15<00:03, 87.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1483.8367787077502 is not greater than 1483.8651516306172. Delta is -0.028372922866992667
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1490.6975960685095 is not greater than 1490.731861056126. Delta is -0.03426498761655239
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1493.1100067209406 is not greater than 1493.3757044200268. Delta is -0.26569769908610397
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  95%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊       | 5529/5847 [01:15<00:04, 78.74it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  95%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████       | 5538/5847 [01:15<00:04, 76.02it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1495.213098055988 is not greater than 1495.8066907772534. Delta is -0.5935927212653951
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  95%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏      | 5546/5847 [01:15<00:03, 76.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.896496902959 is not greater than 1490.0931014400066. Delta is -0.19660453704773317
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1489.8947820771039 is not greater than 1490.000256922747. Delta is -0.10547484564312981
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1501.2829184477155 is not greater than 1501.3273424484462. Delta is -0.0444240007307144
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  95%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍      | 5554/5847 [01:16<00:03, 76.19it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1505.668388510152 is not greater than 1506.6279183176005. Delta is -0.9595298074484617
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 1517.3622298159491 is not greater than 1519.5812618727468. Delta is -2.219032056797687
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  95%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋      | 5566/5847 [01:16<00:03, 86.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1491.2981184788002 is not greater than 1491.3438886748465. Delta is -0.0457701960463055
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1510.9551460884181 is not greater than 1510.9692795575147. Delta is -0.014133469096577755
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1523.3120946569588 is not greater than 1523.3541633474995. Delta is -0.04206869054064555
Model is not converging.  Current: 1512.1586674673629 is not greater than 1512.224710642657. Delta is -0.06604317529422588
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  95%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉      | 5578/5847 [01:16<00:02, 94.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1534.9702672749443 is not greater than 1535.1504781442306. Delta is -0.18021086928638397
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1515.13717212455 is not greater than 1515.3378539168984. Delta is -0.200681792348405
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.1622206803925 is not greater than 1525.202006381079. Delta is -0.039785700686479686
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1514.6417225409605 is not greater than 1514.8120699076658. Delta is -0.17034736670530037
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  96%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏     | 5590/5847 [01:16<00:02, 101.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1525.395481247465 is not greater than 1525.503219652421. Delta is -0.10773840495585318
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  96%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍     | 5601/5847 [01:16<00:02, 91.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1516.0264953976316 is not greater than 1516.4506098159006. Delta is -0.42411441826902774
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1522.1625447984418 is not greater than 1522.4526016184611. Delta is -0.29005682001934474
Model is not converging.  Current: 1520.992016635591 is not greater than 1521.0240688380632. Delta is -0.032052202472186764
Model is not converging.  Current: 1526.2121194877489 is not greater than 1526.77690294809. Delta is -0.5647834603412321
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  96%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋     | 5611/5847 [01:16<00:02, 89.82it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 1552.9250105092556 is not greater than 1553.315763637004. Delta is -0.3907531277484395
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.3698418511412 is not greater than 1551.0599745304605. Delta is -1.6901326793192766
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  96%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉     | 5621/5847 [01:16<00:02, 84.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1541.4623873899106 is not greater than 1541.8162141903308. Delta is -0.35382680042016545
Model is not converging.  Current: 1559.377720621425 is not greater than 1559.6233208487272. Delta is -0.24560022730224773
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1549.5158047494035 is not greater than 1549.7570507653625. Delta is -0.24124601595895
Model is not converging.  Current: 1553.6190206338895 is not greater than 1553.7353046687003. Delta is -0.11628403481086025
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  96%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏    | 5632/5847 [01:16<00:02, 84.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1571.051562300084 is not greater than 1573.260169136035. Delta is -2.208606835951059
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1579.002614035056 is not greater than 1580.7739327208353. Delta is -1.7713186857793062
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1586.8808004506493 is not greater than 1590.9962845577502. Delta is -4.115484107100883
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  97%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍    | 5644/5847 [01:16<00:02, 90.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.6905528632756 is not greater than 1583.786674892219. Delta is -0.096122028943455
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1590.677249857361 is not greater than 1591.0379130608223. Delta is -0.36066320346139946
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1583.8850867029369 is not greater than 1584.1471632260425. Delta is -0.2620765231056339
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1598.7875721213534 is not greater than 1598.8884132625135. Delta is -0.10084114116011733
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  97%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋    | 5656/5847 [01:17<00:02, 93.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1601.717581973284 is not greater than 1601.7945459121158. Delta is -0.07696393883179553
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1601.9398787695156 is not greater than 1602.8040421950195. Delta is -0.8641634255038753
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1604.0252995029807 is not greater than 1604.45903739919. Delta is -0.43373789620932257
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1604.8639711272729 is not greater than 1605.165685320158. Delta is -0.3017141928851288
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  97%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉    | 5668/5847 [01:17<00:01, 95.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1595.999401903957 is not greater than 1596.0748513631902. Delta is -0.07544945923314117
Model is not converging.  Current: 1608.7938323013918 is not greater than 1609.4255858880865. Delta is -0.6317535866946855
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1597.8765433849385 is not greater than 1597.9935547368248. Delta is -0.11701135188627632
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1609.7415096770183 is not greater than 1609.881006682873. Delta is -0.1394970058547642
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  97%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏   | 5680/5847 [01:17<00:01, 97.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1611.7126794101885 is not greater than 1611.805950881134. Delta is -0.0932714709456377
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1603.79409048054 is not greater than 1604.0041997101434. Delta is -0.21010922960340395
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1601.285989048633 is not greater than 1601.6611647459695. Delta is -0.37517569733654454
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1604.0325840973157 is not greater than 1604.5424716556863. Delta is -0.5098875583705649
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  97%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌   | 5692/5847 [01:17<00:01, 98.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1603.6833921230889 is not greater than 1604.133978412113. Delta is -0.45058628902415876
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1615.144454882885 is not greater than 1615.596876641229. Delta is -0.4524217583441441
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  98%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋   | 5702/5847 [01:17<00:01, 97.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1599.926045482014 is not greater than 1600.03560112041. Delta is -0.10955563839615934
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1584.631353253796 is not greater than 1584.8647279663107. Delta is -0.23337471251466013
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  98%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉   | 5712/5847 [01:17<00:01, 97.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1617.1148985910745 is not greater than 1617.7764673623083. Delta is -0.6615687712337603
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1618.7637755821067 is not greater than 1618.8930964515055. Delta is -0.12932086939872534
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1608.9627224804321 is not greater than 1608.9647318047032. Delta is -0.0020093242710572667
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1611.9976128847486 is not greater than 1612.138346067947. Delta is -0.1407331831983356
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  98%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏  | 5722/5847 [01:17<00:01, 83.32it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1638.8094656778974 is not greater than 1639.097715784168. Delta is -0.2882501062706524
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1640.0023768512908 is not greater than 1640.1006215498246. Delta is -0.09824469853379014
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  98%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍  | 5731/5847 [01:17<00:01, 76.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1649.8583378486485 is not greater than 1650.3932063695265. Delta is -0.5348685208780353
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  98%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌  | 5740/5847 [01:18<00:01, 75.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1659.4268774895636 is not greater than 1659.6075412104085. Delta is -0.18066372084490467
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1663.8227366556587 is not greater than 1663.8250371692502. Delta is -0.0023005135915354913
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1650.0949498227144 is not greater than 1650.245940151553. Delta is -0.15099032883858854
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  98%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊  | 5752/5847 [01:18<00:01, 79.15it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  99%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████  | 5761/5847 [01:18<00:01, 81.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1686.7867931549492 is not greater than 1688.3650255435566. Delta is -1.5782323886073755
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  99%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎ | 5773/5847 [01:18<00:00, 83.36it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  99%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌ | 5782/5847 [01:18<00:00, 82.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  99%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋ | 5791/5847 [01:18<00:00, 81.18it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  99%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉ | 5800/5847 [01:18<00:00, 71.67it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode:  99%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏| 5809/5847 [01:18<00:00, 72.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1698.41201679723 is not greater than 1698.572667303626. Delta is -0.16065050639599576
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode: 100%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎| 5818/5847 [01:19<00:00, 75.75it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode: 100%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌| 5826/5847 [01:19<00:00, 76.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
Model is not converging.  Current: 1697.7883059549786 is not greater than 1697.9388236244968. Delta is -0.15051766951819445
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode: 100%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋| 5834/5847 [01:19<00:00, 73.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 1695.0319209681036 is not greater than 1695.0621147875913. Delta is -0.03019381948774935
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode: 100%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉| 5842/5847 [01:19<00:00, 73.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 1693.8629301018634 is not greater than 1693.8706043609184. Delta is -0.00767425905496566
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/fromnumeric.py:3723: RuntimeWarning: Degrees of freedom <= 0 for slice
  return _methods._var(a, axis=axis, dtype=dtype, out=out, ddof=ddof,
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:222: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  arrmean = um.true_divide(arrmean, div, out=arrmean, casting='unsafe',
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/numpy/core/_methods.py:254: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  ret = ret.dtype.type(ret / rcount)
📊 HMM 4 régimes + Panic Mode: 100%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████| 5847/5847 [01:19<00:00, 73.57it/s]

📊 Résultats finaux :
Rendement annualisé : 7.39%
Volatilité annualisée : 0.14

benchmark ma100

import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Télécharger les données BTC-USD (ou tout autre actif)
data = yf.download('BTC-USD', start='2014-01-01', end='2025-01-01')
# Calculer les log-returns
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
# Calculer la moyenne mobile sur 100 jours (MA100)
data['MA100'] = data['Close'].rolling(100).mean()
data.dropna(inplace=True)

# Générer le signal simple basé sur MA100
positions = []
dates = []
returns_strategy = []

for t in range(len(data) - 1):
    # Forcer la conversion en float pour éviter l'ambiguïté
    current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
    current_MA100 = float(data['MA100'].iloc[t])
    # Signal binaire simple : long si Close > MA100, sinon short
    if current_close > current_MA100:
        position = 1
    else:
        position = -1
    # Appliquer la position au retour du lendemain
    r_tomorrow = data['Log_Returns'].iloc[t + 1]
    positions.append(position)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])
    returns_strategy.append(position * r_tomorrow)

# Construire le DataFrame des résultats
df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy
}).set_index('Date')

df['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df.index]).cumprod()

# Graphique comparatif
plt.figure(figsize=(14,6))
plt.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Market'], '--', label='Buy & Hold', color='gray')
plt.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='MA100 Strategy', color='red')
plt.title("Performance : Buy & Hold vs MA100 Strategy")
plt.ylabel("Capital cumulé (base 1)")
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# Calcul des statistiques de performance
mean = df['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol = df['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe = mean / vol

print("Performance MA100 Strategy :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé = {mean:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée = {vol:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe Ratio = {sharpe:.2f}")

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_48926/473680330.py:21: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

Performance MA100 Strategy :
Rendement annualisé = 39.39%
Volatilité annualisée = 57.97%
Sharpe Ratio = 0.68

HMM V1

import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm

# 1. Télécharger les données du SP500 (ici '^GSPC')
data = yf.download('ETH-USD', start='2014-01-01', end='2025-01-01')
# Utilisation du "Close" pour ce code
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
# Calcul de la MA100 pour le filtre de tendance (MA100)
data['MA100'] = data['Close'].rolling(100).mean()
data.dropna(inplace=True)
log_returns = data['Log_Returns'].values

# 2. Paramètres du rolling
window = 300    # Fenêtre pour capter rapidement la dynamique
refit_every = 10  # Réestimation plus fréquente
positions, dates, returns_strategy = [], [], []
regime_list = []

for t in tqdm(range(window, len(data) - 1), desc="Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états"):
    if (t - window) % refit_every != 0:
        continue

    window_returns = log_returns[t - window:t].reshape(-1, 1)
    model = GaussianHMM(n_components=4, covariance_type='full', n_iter=300)
    
    try:
        if np.var(window_returns) < 1e-8:
            continue
        model.fit(window_returns)
        if not np.allclose(model.transmat_.sum(axis=1), 1):
            continue
        if not np.all(np.isfinite(model.covars_)):
            continue
    except:
        continue

    # Décodeur Viterbi pour obtenir la séquence d'états sur la fenêtre
    viterbi_states = model.predict(window_returns)
    
    # Reclassification : trier les états selon leur volatilité via la trace des covariances 
    # (on considère 0 = état le moins volatil et 3 = état le plus volatil)
    if model.covars_.ndim == 3:
        vols = [np.trace(model.covars_[i]) for i in range(4)]
    else:
        vols = model.covars_.flatten()
    sorted_idx = np.argsort(vols)  
    remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sorted_idx)}
    
    # On récupère l'état du dernier jour de la fenêtre et on le reclasse
    last_state_original = viterbi_states[-1]
    last_state_reclassified = remap[last_state_original]
    
    # Définition du signal selon l'état reclassé :
    # Nous définissons une échelle continue sur 4 états :
    # état 0 (calme)   -> signal = +1
    # état 1 (intermédiaire) -> signal = +0.5
    # état 2 (intermédiaire) -> signal = -0.5
    # état 3 (panique) -> signal = -1
    if last_state_reclassified == 0:
        signal = 1.0
    elif last_state_reclassified == 1:
        signal = 0.5
    elif last_state_reclassified == 2:
        signal = -0.5
    elif last_state_reclassified == 3:
        signal = -1.0
    else:
        signal = 0

    # Filtre de tendance : si le prix actuel est inférieur ou égal à la MA100, on neutralise le signal
    current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
    current_MA100 = float(data['MA100'].iloc[t])
    if current_close <= current_MA100:
        signal = 0

    r_tomorrow = log_returns[t + 1]
    positions.append(signal)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])
    returns_strategy.append(signal * r_tomorrow)
    regime_list.append(last_state_reclassified)

# 3. Construction du DataFrame des résultats
df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Regime': regime_list
}).set_index('Date')

df['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df.index]).cumprod()

# 4. Graphique comparatif avec affichage de la MA100
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(14,6))
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Market'], '--', label='Buy & Hold', color='gray')
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='HMM Simple Strategy à 4 états', color='red')
ax1.set_ylabel("Capital cumulé (base 1)")
ax1.grid(True)
ax1.legend(loc='upper left')

# Axe secondaire pour afficher la MA100
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(data.index, data['MA100'], label='MA100', color='blue', alpha=0.4)
ax2.set_ylabel("MA100")
ax2.legend(loc='upper right')

plt.title("Performance : Buy & Hold vs HMM Simple (4 états, avec MA100)")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 5. Statistiques finales
mean_simple = df['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol_simple = df['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_simple = mean_simple / vol_simple

print("Performance HMM Simple à 4 états sur BTC-USD :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé = {mean_simple:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée = {vol_simple:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe Ratio = {sharpe_simple:.2f}")

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   0%|                                                                                                                                                | 0/2210 [00:00<?, ?it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 496.80985542903585 is not greater than 496.81259403538604. Delta is -0.0027386063501921853
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   0%|▋                                                                                                                                      | 11/2210 [00:00<00:25, 85.39it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   1%|█▉                                                                                                                                    | 31/2210 [00:00<00:18, 120.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   2%|██▌                                                                                                                                   | 43/2210 [00:00<00:20, 106.11it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   3%|████▎                                                                                                                                 | 71/2210 [00:00<00:14, 142.98it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   4%|█████▌                                                                                                                                | 91/2210 [00:00<00:14, 149.53it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   5%|██████▋                                                                                                                              | 111/2210 [00:00<00:13, 150.13it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   6%|███████▉                                                                                                                             | 131/2210 [00:00<00:15, 136.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   7%|█████████                                                                                                                            | 151/2210 [00:01<00:15, 129.32it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   8%|██████████▎                                                                                                                          | 171/2210 [00:01<00:16, 124.91it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 535.7271052931438 is not greater than 535.7359068621024. Delta is -0.008801568958574535
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:   9%|███████████▍                                                                                                                         | 191/2210 [00:01<00:15, 133.74it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  10%|████████████▊                                                                                                                         | 211/2210 [00:01<00:20, 99.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  10%|█████████████▉                                                                                                                       | 231/2210 [00:01<00:18, 108.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  11%|██████████████▋                                                                                                                      | 244/2210 [00:02<00:19, 102.49it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  12%|███████████████▍                                                                                                                     | 256/2210 [00:02<00:19, 101.66it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  12%|████████████████▎                                                                                                                    | 271/2210 [00:02<00:17, 110.15it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  13%|█████████████████▌                                                                                                                   | 291/2210 [00:02<00:15, 121.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 536.8509316318358 is not greater than 536.8636907588788. Delta is -0.012759127042954788
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  14%|██████████████████▋                                                                                                                  | 311/2210 [00:02<00:14, 129.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 552.53424016961 is not greater than 552.5595872982794. Delta is -0.025347128669409358
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 562.5606859068947 is not greater than 562.5618635243598. Delta is -0.001177617465032199
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  15%|████████████████████▌                                                                                                                | 341/2210 [00:02<00:12, 154.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  16%|█████████████████████▋                                                                                                               | 361/2210 [00:02<00:11, 158.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  17%|██████████████████████▉                                                                                                              | 381/2210 [00:02<00:11, 159.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 569.476268963707 is not greater than 569.4780272391691. Delta is -0.0017582754621798813
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  19%|████████████████████████▋                                                                                                            | 411/2210 [00:03<00:10, 170.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 559.3968058386564 is not greater than 559.4125808067984. Delta is -0.01577496814195456
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  20%|██████████████████████████▌                                                                                                          | 441/2210 [00:03<00:09, 189.85it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  21%|███████████████████████████▋                                                                                                         | 461/2210 [00:03<00:09, 182.89it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  22%|█████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                       | 491/2210 [00:03<00:09, 186.75it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 538.3365074693285 is not greater than 538.3456512709952. Delta is -0.009143801666709805
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  24%|███████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                     | 521/2210 [00:03<00:08, 205.20it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  25%|█████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                   | 551/2210 [00:03<00:08, 198.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  26%|██████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                  | 572/2210 [00:03<00:08, 184.28it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  27%|████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                | 601/2210 [00:04<00:09, 169.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  28%|█████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                               | 621/2210 [00:04<00:09, 166.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  29%|███████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                             | 651/2210 [00:04<00:08, 175.86it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  31%|████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                            | 681/2210 [00:04<00:08, 182.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                          | 701/2210 [00:04<00:08, 178.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  33%|███████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                         | 731/2210 [00:04<00:07, 201.25it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                      | 771/2210 [00:04<00:06, 213.73it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  36%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                     | 793/2210 [00:05<00:06, 215.12it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  37%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                    | 815/2210 [00:05<00:06, 205.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  38%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                  | 836/2210 [00:05<00:07, 185.73it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                 | 855/2210 [00:05<00:09, 142.24it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  40%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                | 881/2210 [00:05<00:09, 146.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  41%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                              | 901/2210 [00:05<00:09, 139.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  42%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                             | 921/2210 [00:05<00:08, 143.90it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  43%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                            | 941/2210 [00:06<00:08, 143.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  43%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                           | 961/2210 [00:06<00:08, 142.37it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  45%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                         | 991/2210 [00:06<00:07, 160.38it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                       | 1011/2210 [00:06<00:07, 166.13it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  47%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                      | 1031/2210 [00:06<00:06, 171.58it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  48%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                     | 1051/2210 [00:06<00:06, 168.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                   | 1081/2210 [00:06<00:06, 181.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  50%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                  | 1101/2210 [00:07<00:06, 178.39it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  51%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                 | 1121/2210 [00:07<00:06, 178.29it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                               | 1151/2210 [00:07<00:05, 186.75it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                             | 1181/2210 [00:07<00:05, 195.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                            | 1201/2210 [00:07<00:05, 187.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 523.1202036558669 is not greater than 523.1585129344761. Delta is -0.038309278609176545
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                          | 1231/2210 [00:07<00:05, 184.08it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  57%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                         | 1251/2210 [00:07<00:05, 177.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                       | 1281/2210 [00:07<00:04, 190.26it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 524.6648215280488 is not greater than 524.6648472384495. Delta is -2.5710400677780854e-05
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  59%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                      | 1301/2210 [00:08<00:05, 180.51it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  60%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                     | 1321/2210 [00:08<00:04, 183.96it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                   | 1351/2210 [00:08<00:04, 202.83it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  62%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                  | 1372/2210 [00:08<00:04, 175.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  63%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                 | 1391/2210 [00:08<00:04, 171.94it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  64%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                               | 1411/2210 [00:08<00:04, 170.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  65%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                              | 1441/2210 [00:08<00:04, 182.03it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  67%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                            | 1471/2210 [00:09<00:03, 191.51it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  67%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                           | 1491/2210 [00:09<00:04, 179.49it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  68%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                         | 1511/2210 [00:09<00:04, 168.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  69%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                        | 1531/2210 [00:09<00:04, 158.93it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  70%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                       | 1551/2210 [00:09<00:04, 153.24it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  71%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                      | 1571/2210 [00:09<00:03, 163.67it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  72%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                     | 1591/2210 [00:09<00:03, 172.04it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  73%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                   | 1621/2210 [00:10<00:03, 156.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  74%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                  | 1641/2210 [00:10<00:03, 162.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 634.5971663094018 is not greater than 634.6001985218206. Delta is -0.003032212418816016
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                | 1671/2210 [00:10<00:02, 182.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 664.4194485976759 is not greater than 664.4310456617706. Delta is -0.011597064094644338
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 665.3301893724214 is not greater than 665.35010983128. Delta is -0.019920458858564416
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  77%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                              | 1701/2210 [00:10<00:02, 202.99it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  78%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                            | 1731/2210 [00:10<00:02, 225.70it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  80%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                          | 1771/2210 [00:10<00:01, 236.93it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  81%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                        | 1801/2210 [00:10<00:01, 242.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 720.9991366339276 is not greater than 721.1073517960247. Delta is -0.10821516209705351
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                      | 1831/2210 [00:10<00:01, 236.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 711.701451240611 is not greater than 711.7112716631627. Delta is -0.009820422551683805
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  84%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                    | 1861/2210 [00:10<00:01, 240.26it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  86%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                   | 1891/2210 [00:11<00:01, 241.28it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 713.5332244563905 is not greater than 713.5973229864967. Delta is -0.06409853010620736
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  87%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                 | 1921/2210 [00:11<00:01, 256.21it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 694.3382669897054 is not greater than 694.376020793701. Delta is -0.03775380399554251
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 691.1887299537985 is not greater than 691.2079238789531. Delta is -0.019193925154581848
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 689.0919165697485 is not greater than 689.1127816882896. Delta is -0.02086511854110995
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  88%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌               | 1951/2210 [00:11<00:01, 246.15it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  89%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████              | 1976/2210 [00:11<00:00, 244.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 675.8650604961106 is not greater than 675.8790814217218. Delta is -0.014020925611248458
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 665.0559710658476 is not greater than 665.0769075324135. Delta is -0.020936466565899536
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  91%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████            | 2011/2210 [00:11<00:00, 239.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 646.4913531864552 is not greater than 646.4962545978806. Delta is -0.004901411425407787
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  93%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌         | 2051/2210 [00:11<00:00, 268.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  95%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉       | 2091/2210 [00:11<00:00, 287.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 620.945686522558 is not greater than 620.9524869463875. Delta is -0.006800423829417923
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  96%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋     | 2121/2210 [00:11<00:00, 284.04it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 629.8898050844174 is not greater than 629.9073845686898. Delta is -0.017579484272459922
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  97%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍   | 2151/2210 [00:12<00:00, 256.53it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états:  99%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎ | 2181/2210 [00:12<00:00, 234.04it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 600.4967368464257 is not greater than 600.5997442618659. Delta is -0.10300741544017455
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3864060814.py:75: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMM Simple à 4 états: 100%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████| 2210/2210 [00:12<00:00, 179.31it/s]

Performance HMM Simple à 4 états sur BTC-USD :
Rendement annualisé = 60.46%
Volatilité annualisée = 41.27%
Sharpe Ratio = 1.46

V3

import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

# 1. Télécharger les données BTC-USD (Bitcoin)
data = yf.download('CL=F', start='2004-01-01', end='2025-01-01')
# Utilisation du "Close" pour ce code
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
# Calcul de la moyenne mobile sur 100 jours pour le filtre de tendance (MA100)
data['MA100'] = data['Close'].rolling(100).mean()
data.dropna(inplace=True)
log_returns = data['Log_Returns'].values

# 2. Paramètres du rolling
window = 300    # Fenêtre plus courte pour capter rapidement la dynamique
refit_every = 10  # Réestimation plus fréquente pour suivre les changements
positions, dates, returns_strategy = [], [], []
regimes_rolling = []

# Boucle rolling sur les données
for t in tqdm(range(window, len(data) - 1), desc="Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD"):
    
    if (t - window) % refit_every != 0:
        continue
    
    window_returns = log_returns[t - window:t].reshape(-1, 1)
    model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=300)
    
    try:
        if np.var(window_returns) < 1e-8:
            continue
        model.fit(window_returns)
        if not np.allclose(model.transmat_.sum(axis=1), 1):
            continue
        if not np.all(np.isfinite(model.covars_)):
            continue
    except:
        continue

    # Obtenir les probabilités d'état sur la fenêtre et retenir celle du dernier jour
    proba = model.predict_proba(window_returns)
    last_proba = proba[-1]
    
    # Reclasser dynamiquement les états en fonction de la volatilité (trace des covariances)
    if model.covars_.ndim == 3:
        vols = [np.trace(model.covars_[i]) for i in range(3)]
    else:
        vols = model.covars_.flatten()
    sorted_idx = np.argsort(vols)  # On suppose : 0 = état de faible volatilité (calme), 2 = état de forte volatilité (panique)
    remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sorted_idx)}
    reordered_proba = np.zeros(3)
    for i in range(3):
        reordered_proba[remap[i]] = last_proba[i]
    
    # -------------------------
    # Ajout de la modélisation AR(1) pour une dynamique de volatilité (HMMSV)
    #
    # On estime pour chaque état i un AR(1) sur log(R²) dans la fenêtre.
    # On utilise une condition sur la probabilité (par exemple, proba > 0.5) pour sélectionner les périodes appartenant à cet état.
    log_r2 = np.log(window_returns.flatten()**2 + 1e-8)
    sigma_states = np.zeros(3)
    for i in range(3):
        idx = np.where(proba[:, i] > 0.5)[0]
        if len(idx) < 3:
            sigma_states[i] = np.nan
        else:
            y_ar = log_r2[idx]
            x_ar = np.roll(y_ar, 1)[1:]
            y_ar_fit = y_ar[1:]
            model_ar = LinearRegression().fit(x_ar.reshape(-1, 1), y_ar_fit)
            phi = model_ar.coef_[0]
            mu = model_ar.intercept_ / (1 - phi)
            h_ar = np.zeros(len(idx))
            h_ar[0] = mu
            for j in range(1, len(idx)):
                # Si les indices sont consécutifs, on propage via AR(1), sinon on réinitialise
                if idx[j] == idx[j-1] + 1:
                    h_ar[j] = mu + phi * (h_ar[j-1] - mu)
                else:
                    h_ar[j] = mu
            sigma_states[i] = np.exp(h_ar[-1] / 2)  # Volatilité prévisionnelle pour cet état

    # Calcul de la volatilité globale prévisionnelle comme moyenne pondérée des sigma_states,
    # en utilisant les probabilités reclassées (si certaines valeurs sont NaN, on les ignore)
    valid = ~np.isnan(sigma_states)
    if np.sum(valid) > 0:
        sigma_weighted = np.sum(reordered_proba[valid]*sigma_states[valid]) / np.sum(reordered_proba[valid])
    else:
        sigma_weighted = 0.02  # valeur par défaut

    # -------------------------
    # Filtre de tendance : comparer le Close et le MA100 (conversion en float)
    current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
    current_MA100 = float(data['MA100'].iloc[t])
    if current_close > current_MA100:
        # Tendance haussière : booster l'exposition long et atténuer le short
        long_weight = 2.0
        short_weight = -0.25
    else:
        # Tendance baissière : réduire l'exposition long et rester agressif short
        long_weight = 0.75
        short_weight = -1.0

    # Signal issu du HMM de base (pondéré) :
    hmm_signal = reordered_proba[0] * long_weight + reordered_proba[2] * short_weight
    # Optionnellement, on peut moduler le signal en fonction de la volatilité prévisionnelle.
    # Par exemple, si la volatilité prévisionnelle est trop élevée, réduire l'exposition.
    threshold = 0.03  # Par exemple, 3% de volatilité journalier attendue
    if sigma_weighted > threshold:
        final_signal = hmm_signal * 0.5  # réduction de l'exposition si vol trop élevée
    else:
        final_signal = hmm_signal

    # -------------------------
    r_tomorrow = log_returns[t + 1]
    positions.append(final_signal)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])
    returns_strategy.append(final_signal * r_tomorrow)
    regimes_rolling.append(np.argmax(reordered_proba))

# 3. Construction du DataFrame des résultats
df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Regime': regimes_rolling
}).set_index('Date')

df['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df.index]).cumprod()

# 4. Graphique comparatif avec affichage de la MA100
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(14,6))
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Market'], '--', label='Buy & Hold', color='gray')
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='HMMSV optimisé', color='blue')
ax1.set_ylabel("Capital cumulé (base 1)")
ax1.grid(True)
ax1.legend(loc='upper left')

# Axe secondaire pour afficher la MA100
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(data.index, data['MA100'], label='MA100', color='orange', alpha=0.5)
ax2.set_ylabel("MA100")
ax2.legend(loc='upper right')

plt.title("Performance : Buy & Hold vs HMMSV sur BTC-USD (avec MA100)")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 5. Statistiques finales
mean = df['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol = df['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe = mean / vol

print("Approximate SV-HMM with rolling volatility-adjusted HMM probabilities and AR(1)-based volatility forecast")
print(f"Rendement annualisé = {mean:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée = {vol:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe Ratio = {sharpe:.2f}")
print(f"Volatilité prévisionnelle (moyenne pondérée) = {sigma_weighted:.4f}")

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/pandas/core/internals/blocks.py:393: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log
  result = func(self.values, **kwargs)
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   0%|                       | 0/4877 [00:00<?, ?it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   0%|              | 11/4877 [00:00<01:57, 41.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 716.3101001029584 is not greater than 716.3460453300855. Delta is -0.035945227127172075
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   0%|              | 21/4877 [00:00<01:30, 53.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 716.1119569192241 is not greater than 716.1303799196038. Delta is -0.01842300037969835
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   1%|              | 31/4877 [00:00<01:29, 54.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 718.691995342734 is not greater than 718.7164715123024. Delta is -0.02447616956840193
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   1%|              | 41/4877 [00:01<02:30, 32.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 717.1352778258724 is not greater than 717.1429537840753. Delta is -0.00767595820286715
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   1%|▏             | 51/4877 [00:01<02:49, 28.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 716.318246441395 is not greater than 716.4300193466369. Delta is -0.1117729052418781
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   1%|▏             | 61/4877 [00:01<02:56, 27.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 719.8916369933936 is not greater than 719.9059828414473. Delta is -0.014345848053721966
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   1%|▏             | 71/4877 [00:02<02:39, 30.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 719.5566449844741 is not greater than 719.602456265687. Delta is -0.045811281212877475
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   2%|▏             | 81/4877 [00:02<02:08, 37.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   2%|▎             | 91/4877 [00:02<01:52, 42.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 718.8319553564434 is not greater than 718.859675523997. Delta is -0.02772016755363893
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   2%|▎            | 101/4877 [00:02<01:34, 50.28it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   2%|▎            | 111/4877 [00:03<02:19, 34.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   2%|▎            | 121/4877 [00:03<02:51, 27.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   3%|▎            | 131/4877 [00:04<03:11, 24.83it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   3%|▍            | 141/4877 [00:04<03:36, 21.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 748.1124879287228 is not greater than 748.1536004709932. Delta is -0.04111254227041172
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   3%|▍            | 151/4877 [00:05<03:23, 23.17it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   3%|▍            | 161/4877 [00:05<03:36, 21.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   4%|▍            | 171/4877 [00:05<03:23, 23.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 750.2154630064293 is not greater than 750.2980562244427. Delta is -0.08259321801335773
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   4%|▍            | 181/4877 [00:06<03:15, 24.06it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 750.8155258289141 is not greater than 750.829965136638. Delta is -0.014439307723819184
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   4%|▌            | 191/4877 [00:06<03:02, 25.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   4%|▌            | 201/4877 [00:07<03:01, 25.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   4%|▌            | 211/4877 [00:07<02:25, 32.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   5%|▌            | 221/4877 [00:07<02:00, 38.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 759.0258838733124 is not greater than 759.0853938981254. Delta is -0.059510024812993834
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   5%|▌            | 231/4877 [00:07<02:02, 37.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 765.2982183464288 is not greater than 765.3015143230792. Delta is -0.0032959766504063737
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   5%|▋            | 241/4877 [00:07<01:43, 44.91it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   5%|▋            | 251/4877 [00:07<01:29, 51.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   5%|▋            | 261/4877 [00:07<01:17, 59.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   6%|▋            | 271/4877 [00:08<01:27, 52.70it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   6%|▋            | 281/4877 [00:08<01:22, 55.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 779.7268357295629 is not greater than 779.746368423268. Delta is -0.0195326937050595
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   6%|▊            | 301/4877 [00:08<01:14, 61.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   6%|▊            | 311/4877 [00:08<01:11, 63.87it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 776.0371369386218 is not greater than 776.0856249615955. Delta is -0.04848802297374277
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   7%|▊            | 321/4877 [00:08<01:15, 60.08it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   7%|▉            | 331/4877 [00:09<01:12, 63.03it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   7%|▉            | 341/4877 [00:09<01:07, 67.20it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   7%|▉            | 351/4877 [00:09<01:11, 63.14it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   7%|▉            | 361/4877 [00:09<01:04, 69.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 767.3097930851624 is not greater than 767.3177151842197. Delta is -0.00792209905728214
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   8%|▉            | 371/4877 [00:09<01:19, 56.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 763.3048089177865 is not greater than 763.3211941506444. Delta is -0.01638523285782867
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   8%|█            | 381/4877 [00:09<01:14, 60.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 761.2328982156421 is not greater than 761.2608059317525. Delta is -0.02790771611046239
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   8%|█            | 391/4877 [00:10<01:29, 50.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 762.8973183348243 is not greater than 762.9276950346273. Delta is -0.030376699803014162
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   8%|█            | 401/4877 [00:10<01:39, 44.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   8%|█            | 411/4877 [00:10<01:25, 51.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 758.8269551774536 is not greater than 758.9770325393278. Delta is -0.15007736187419596
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 756.4009909089666 is not greater than 756.4089584552181. Delta is -0.007967546251506974
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   9%|█▏           | 431/4877 [00:10<01:07, 66.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 763.0361365819564 is not greater than 763.16303040104. Delta is -0.12689381908364794
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   9%|█▏           | 441/4877 [00:10<01:02, 70.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 761.6269838047616 is not greater than 761.6504772814175. Delta is -0.023493476655858103
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   9%|█▏           | 451/4877 [00:11<01:04, 68.57it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:   9%|█▏           | 461/4877 [00:11<01:05, 66.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 764.184767327087 is not greater than 764.186139768071. Delta is -0.0013724409840278895
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  10%|█▎           | 471/4877 [00:11<01:11, 61.88it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 763.2421977410712 is not greater than 763.3493674009887. Delta is -0.10716965991753113
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  10%|█▎           | 481/4877 [00:11<01:10, 62.35it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 771.2577085798464 is not greater than 771.2685968483873. Delta is -0.010888268540952595
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  10%|█▎           | 491/4877 [00:11<01:07, 64.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 776.0311391691564 is not greater than 776.3878364924847. Delta is -0.35669732332826243
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  10%|█▎           | 501/4877 [00:11<01:04, 68.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  10%|█▎           | 511/4877 [00:12<01:31, 47.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 770.82402078847 is not greater than 770.9290842566406. Delta is -0.1050634681706697
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  11%|█▍           | 521/4877 [00:12<01:58, 36.64it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  11%|█▍           | 531/4877 [00:12<02:03, 35.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 769.1730224367307 is not greater than 769.1989839455596. Delta is -0.025961508828913793
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  11%|█▍           | 541/4877 [00:13<01:51, 38.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  11%|█▍           | 551/4877 [00:13<01:41, 42.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 765.8030724095145 is not greater than 765.8033808852874. Delta is -0.00030847577295389783
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  12%|█▍           | 561/4877 [00:13<01:34, 45.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 759.0705555006112 is not greater than 759.0713348374228. Delta is -0.0007793368115471822
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  12%|█▌           | 571/4877 [00:13<01:52, 38.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 753.3147026074672 is not greater than 753.3147735683704. Delta is -7.096090314462344e-05
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  12%|█▌           | 581/4877 [00:14<01:47, 40.01it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  12%|█▌           | 591/4877 [00:14<01:44, 41.14it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  12%|█▌           | 601/4877 [00:14<01:37, 43.66it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  13%|█▋           | 611/4877 [00:14<01:32, 46.36it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  13%|█▋           | 621/4877 [00:14<01:29, 47.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 761.8543323392283 is not greater than 761.8719160815064. Delta is -0.01758374227802051
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  13%|█▋           | 631/4877 [00:15<01:16, 55.42it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  13%|█▋           | 641/4877 [00:15<01:24, 50.00it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 753.9015694597016 is not greater than 753.9078225203568. Delta is -0.006253060655240006
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  13%|█▋           | 651/4877 [00:15<01:21, 51.66it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  14%|█▊           | 661/4877 [00:15<01:24, 49.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  14%|█▊           | 671/4877 [00:16<01:51, 37.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  14%|█▊           | 681/4877 [00:16<02:49, 24.77it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  14%|█▊           | 691/4877 [00:16<02:20, 29.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 767.6614100274733 is not greater than 767.8220573466562. Delta is -0.16064731918288544
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 768.7308435989946 is not greater than 768.7323811106752. Delta is -0.0015375116805671496
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  15%|█▉           | 711/4877 [00:17<01:52, 36.99it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  15%|█▉           | 721/4877 [00:17<02:14, 30.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 760.4666437611025 is not greater than 760.4815681865372. Delta is -0.014924425434628574
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 749.416911561105 is not greater than 749.4378147828729. Delta is -0.020903221767866853
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  15%|█▉           | 741/4877 [00:18<01:36, 42.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  15%|██           | 751/4877 [00:18<01:26, 47.58it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  16%|██           | 761/4877 [00:18<01:26, 47.45it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  16%|██           | 771/4877 [00:18<01:36, 42.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 733.3485021990812 is not greater than 733.5055654166282. Delta is -0.15706321754703367
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  16%|██           | 781/4877 [00:18<01:28, 46.38it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  16%|██           | 791/4877 [00:19<01:35, 42.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  16%|██▏          | 801/4877 [00:19<01:45, 38.69it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  17%|██▏          | 811/4877 [00:19<01:51, 36.32it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  17%|██▏          | 821/4877 [00:20<01:59, 33.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  17%|██▏          | 831/4877 [00:20<01:58, 34.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 657.5874910054647 is not greater than 657.5939433207255. Delta is -0.006452315260844443
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  17%|██▏          | 841/4877 [00:20<01:54, 35.19it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  17%|██▎          | 851/4877 [00:21<02:03, 32.69it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  18%|██▎          | 861/4877 [00:21<02:05, 31.92it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  18%|██▎          | 871/4877 [00:21<02:18, 28.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  18%|██▎          | 881/4877 [00:21<02:01, 32.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  18%|██▍          | 891/4877 [00:22<02:09, 30.77it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  18%|██▍          | 901/4877 [00:22<02:05, 31.63it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  19%|██▍          | 911/4877 [00:22<01:52, 35.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 570.4787868467806 is not greater than 570.4805111895265. Delta is -0.0017243427458879523
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  19%|██▍          | 921/4877 [00:23<02:09, 30.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  19%|██▍          | 931/4877 [00:23<02:10, 30.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  19%|██▌          | 941/4877 [00:23<01:46, 36.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  19%|██▌          | 951/4877 [00:24<01:45, 37.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  20%|██▌          | 961/4877 [00:24<01:40, 38.89it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  20%|██▌          | 971/4877 [00:24<02:05, 31.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 555.14002478163 is not greater than 555.1407449581444. Delta is -0.0007201765143918237
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  20%|██▌          | 981/4877 [00:24<01:56, 33.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  20%|██▋          | 991/4877 [00:25<02:24, 26.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  21%|██▍         | 1001/4877 [00:25<02:20, 27.56it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  21%|██▍         | 1011/4877 [00:26<02:29, 25.91it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  21%|██▌         | 1021/4877 [00:26<02:28, 26.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  21%|██▌         | 1031/4877 [00:27<02:42, 23.71it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  21%|██▌         | 1041/4877 [00:27<02:14, 28.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  22%|██▌         | 1051/4877 [00:27<01:49, 35.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  22%|██▌         | 1061/4877 [00:27<01:49, 34.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  22%|██▋         | 1071/4877 [00:28<01:39, 38.25it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  22%|██▋         | 1081/4877 [00:28<01:31, 41.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  22%|██▋         | 1091/4877 [00:28<01:48, 34.95it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  23%|██▋         | 1101/4877 [00:28<01:45, 35.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  23%|██▋         | 1111/4877 [00:29<01:35, 39.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 605.8570409501583 is not greater than 605.8576433744652. Delta is -0.0006024243068623036
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  23%|██▊         | 1121/4877 [00:29<01:47, 34.90it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  23%|██▊         | 1131/4877 [00:29<01:38, 37.96it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  23%|██▊         | 1141/4877 [00:29<01:51, 33.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  24%|██▊         | 1151/4877 [00:30<01:49, 34.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  24%|██▊         | 1161/4877 [00:30<01:45, 35.09it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  24%|██▉         | 1171/4877 [00:30<01:55, 32.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  24%|██▉         | 1181/4877 [00:31<01:50, 33.57it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  24%|██▉         | 1191/4877 [00:31<01:52, 32.70it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  25%|██▉         | 1201/4877 [00:31<01:45, 34.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  25%|██▉         | 1211/4877 [00:32<01:49, 33.45it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  25%|███         | 1221/4877 [00:32<02:00, 30.31it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  25%|███         | 1231/4877 [00:32<01:44, 35.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  25%|███         | 1241/4877 [00:32<01:32, 39.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 738.8334502041677 is not greater than 739.0110451940187. Delta is -0.17759498985105893
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  26%|███         | 1251/4877 [00:33<01:31, 39.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  26%|███         | 1261/4877 [00:33<01:29, 40.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 742.9180931139724 is not greater than 742.9348187601689. Delta is -0.016725646196505295
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  26%|███▏        | 1271/4877 [00:33<01:25, 42.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 745.9562899631098 is not greater than 745.9647154681019. Delta is -0.008425504992032984
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  26%|███▏        | 1281/4877 [00:33<01:20, 44.67it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 752.5849533021583 is not greater than 752.6384636450774. Delta is -0.053510342919139475
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  26%|███▏        | 1291/4877 [00:33<01:14, 47.96it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  27%|███▏        | 1301/4877 [00:34<01:17, 45.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  27%|███▏        | 1311/4877 [00:34<01:10, 50.71it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  27%|███▎        | 1321/4877 [00:34<01:00, 58.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 766.4484441644528 is not greater than 766.4554278421753. Delta is -0.006983677722473658
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  27%|███▎        | 1331/4877 [00:34<00:54, 64.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  27%|███▎        | 1341/4877 [00:34<00:56, 63.06it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  28%|███▎        | 1351/4877 [00:34<00:58, 59.96it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  28%|███▎        | 1361/4877 [00:35<01:04, 54.92it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  28%|███▎        | 1371/4877 [00:35<01:09, 50.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 785.4329597891646 is not greater than 785.4876027316939. Delta is -0.05464294252931268
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  28%|███▍        | 1381/4877 [00:35<01:08, 51.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  29%|███▍        | 1391/4877 [00:35<01:07, 51.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  29%|███▍        | 1401/4877 [00:35<01:13, 47.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 782.191592739112 is not greater than 782.2250811423409. Delta is -0.033488403228830066
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  29%|███▍        | 1411/4877 [00:36<01:17, 44.45it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  29%|███▍        | 1421/4877 [00:36<01:14, 46.60it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  29%|███▌        | 1431/4877 [00:36<01:14, 46.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 791.5377176560787 is not greater than 791.5525926042742. Delta is -0.01487494819548374
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  30%|███▌        | 1441/4877 [00:36<01:19, 43.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 776.7227686404902 is not greater than 776.7556218888111. Delta is -0.032853248320861894
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  30%|███▌        | 1451/4877 [00:37<01:24, 40.49it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  30%|███▌        | 1461/4877 [00:37<01:20, 42.69it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 775.612567389669 is not greater than 775.6281246670244. Delta is -0.015557277355355836
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  30%|███▌        | 1471/4877 [00:37<01:34, 36.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 767.2996405032909 is not greater than 767.3063926991917. Delta is -0.0067521959008445265
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  30%|███▋        | 1481/4877 [00:38<01:37, 34.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 765.2193702133342 is not greater than 765.2255074476323. Delta is -0.00613723429808033
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  31%|███▋        | 1491/4877 [00:38<01:21, 41.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 773.4320172578828 is not greater than 773.4421390741566. Delta is -0.010121816273795048
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  31%|███▋        | 1501/4877 [00:38<01:31, 36.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 773.6134797301955 is not greater than 773.6145396032341. Delta is -0.0010598730385709132
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  31%|███▋        | 1511/4877 [00:38<01:20, 41.57it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  31%|███▋        | 1521/4877 [00:39<01:37, 34.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 768.417620238899 is not greater than 768.4465622318297. Delta is -0.028941992930754168
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  31%|███▊        | 1531/4877 [00:39<02:03, 27.09it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  32%|███▊        | 1541/4877 [00:40<02:16, 24.42it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  32%|███▊        | 1551/4877 [00:40<02:22, 23.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 755.253772571175 is not greater than 755.2666235557309. Delta is -0.012850984555939249
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  32%|███▊        | 1561/4877 [00:40<02:13, 24.83it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  32%|███▊        | 1571/4877 [00:41<01:54, 28.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 745.2211125737001 is not greater than 745.2427714447605. Delta is -0.021658871060367346
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  32%|███▉        | 1581/4877 [00:41<01:44, 31.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  33%|███▉        | 1591/4877 [00:41<01:45, 31.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 745.7625993137917 is not greater than 745.773917128839. Delta is -0.01131781504727769
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  33%|███▉        | 1601/4877 [00:41<01:32, 35.58it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  33%|███▉        | 1611/4877 [00:42<01:45, 31.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  33%|███▉        | 1621/4877 [00:42<01:39, 32.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 747.64535185795 is not greater than 747.6704570194586. Delta is -0.025105161508577112
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  33%|████        | 1631/4877 [00:42<01:30, 35.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 751.2962430273495 is not greater than 751.3139749278896. Delta is -0.017731900540070455
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  34%|████        | 1641/4877 [00:43<01:28, 36.65it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  34%|████        | 1651/4877 [00:43<01:28, 36.39it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  34%|████        | 1661/4877 [00:43<01:25, 37.43it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  34%|████        | 1671/4877 [00:43<01:25, 37.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 750.2509037262796 is not greater than 750.2935386128855. Delta is -0.042634886605924294
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  34%|████▏       | 1681/4877 [00:44<01:22, 38.64it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  35%|████▏       | 1691/4877 [00:44<01:22, 38.63it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  35%|████▏       | 1701/4877 [00:44<01:13, 43.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  35%|████▏       | 1711/4877 [00:44<01:11, 44.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 759.6089418738488 is not greater than 759.6490686590394. Delta is -0.04012678519052315
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  35%|████▏       | 1721/4877 [00:45<01:08, 45.80it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  35%|████▎       | 1731/4877 [00:45<01:08, 46.21it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  36%|████▎       | 1741/4877 [00:45<01:12, 43.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 758.9298023075129 is not greater than 758.9313923613871. Delta is -0.0015900538742243953
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  36%|████▎       | 1751/4877 [00:45<01:12, 43.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 759.4886742949744 is not greater than 759.550325436704. Delta is -0.06165114172961239
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  36%|████▎       | 1761/4877 [00:46<01:18, 39.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 764.6550071224001 is not greater than 764.9158092484231. Delta is -0.2608021260230089
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  36%|████▎       | 1771/4877 [00:46<01:04, 48.24it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  37%|████▍       | 1781/4877 [00:46<01:16, 40.56it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  37%|████▍       | 1791/4877 [00:46<01:22, 37.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  37%|████▍       | 1801/4877 [00:47<01:20, 38.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 766.1092024154606 is not greater than 766.1657271250917. Delta is -0.056524709631162295
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  37%|████▍       | 1811/4877 [00:47<01:13, 41.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 786.3931930932343 is not greater than 786.4121612272864. Delta is -0.01896813405210196
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  37%|████▍       | 1821/4877 [00:47<01:12, 42.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 778.6945901623637 is not greater than 778.7202834865477. Delta is -0.025693324183976074
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  38%|████▌       | 1831/4877 [00:47<01:05, 46.55it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  38%|████▌       | 1841/4877 [00:47<00:57, 52.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 798.6484164876322 is not greater than 798.7303053923617. Delta is -0.081888904729567
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  38%|████▌       | 1851/4877 [00:47<00:56, 53.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 808.8781382529736 is not greater than 809.0519762701616. Delta is -0.17383801718801806
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  38%|████▌       | 1861/4877 [00:48<01:02, 48.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 820.2950481380888 is not greater than 820.2982830116648. Delta is -0.003234873576047903
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  38%|████▌       | 1871/4877 [00:48<01:01, 48.86it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 805.0755704463579 is not greater than 805.2842398947001. Delta is -0.20866944834222068
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  39%|████▋       | 1881/4877 [00:48<01:01, 48.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 830.802942610276 is not greater than 831.3357126196883. Delta is -0.5327700094122747
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  39%|████▋       | 1891/4877 [00:48<01:05, 45.89it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  39%|████▋       | 1901/4877 [00:49<01:05, 45.35it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 843.5676260138323 is not greater than 843.6816505714708. Delta is -0.11402455763845865
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  39%|████▋       | 1911/4877 [00:49<01:13, 40.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 848.6229942859009 is not greater than 849.2561942044571. Delta is -0.6331999185562154
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  39%|████▋       | 1921/4877 [00:49<01:04, 46.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 848.6512175746473 is not greater than 849.2839681265552. Delta is -0.632750551907975
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  40%|████▊       | 1931/4877 [00:49<01:05, 44.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 841.7032911359829 is not greater than 841.8699088628413. Delta is -0.1666177268583624
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  40%|████▊       | 1941/4877 [00:50<01:12, 40.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 832.7191212458848 is not greater than 832.7364880582707. Delta is -0.0173668123858306
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  40%|████▊       | 1951/4877 [00:50<01:15, 38.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 838.0604681339564 is not greater than 838.1050606900513. Delta is -0.044592556094926294
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  40%|████▊       | 1961/4877 [00:50<01:18, 36.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 842.6138172235555 is not greater than 842.6335892222702. Delta is -0.019771998714645633
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  40%|████▊       | 1971/4877 [00:50<01:15, 38.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 848.76775421172 is not greater than 849.054338646606. Delta is -0.28658443488598095
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  41%|████▊       | 1981/4877 [00:51<01:05, 44.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 833.1805969396341 is not greater than 833.2325873578137. Delta is -0.05199041817957095
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  41%|████▉       | 1991/4877 [00:51<01:05, 44.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 846.0690366921234 is not greater than 846.0690372117105. Delta is -5.195870471652597e-07
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  41%|████▉       | 2001/4877 [00:51<01:02, 45.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 847.1963479217299 is not greater than 847.800979794796. Delta is -0.6046318730661824
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  41%|████▉       | 2011/4877 [00:51<00:55, 51.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 841.2994305944366 is not greater than 841.3359477976743. Delta is -0.036517203237735885
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  41%|████▉       | 2021/4877 [00:51<00:52, 54.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 849.9129493578293 is not greater than 849.9204956597912. Delta is -0.007546301961838253
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  42%|████▉       | 2031/4877 [00:51<00:57, 49.44it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  42%|█████       | 2041/4877 [00:52<01:07, 42.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 872.8948801370543 is not greater than 872.9156132704768. Delta is -0.020733133422481842
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  42%|█████       | 2051/4877 [00:52<01:04, 43.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 878.9709939815868 is not greater than 879.0379905823629. Delta is -0.06699660077606495
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  42%|█████       | 2061/4877 [00:52<01:01, 45.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 877.3510367977676 is not greater than 877.4304211842526. Delta is -0.07938438648500323
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  42%|█████       | 2071/4877 [00:52<01:04, 43.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 877.0117761361802 is not greater than 877.0626694574051. Delta is -0.05089332122497581
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  43%|█████       | 2081/4877 [00:53<01:11, 39.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 878.0718432023114 is not greater than 878.2086528889033. Delta is -0.1368096865919597
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  43%|█████▏      | 2091/4877 [00:53<01:11, 39.08it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  43%|█████▏      | 2101/4877 [00:53<01:03, 43.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 895.3169851957741 is not greater than 895.4340192624497. Delta is -0.11703406667561467
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  43%|█████▏      | 2111/4877 [00:53<01:06, 41.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 891.9311598973835 is not greater than 892.0234531181487. Delta is -0.09229322076521385
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  43%|█████▏      | 2121/4877 [00:54<01:04, 42.84it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  44%|█████▏      | 2131/4877 [00:54<01:04, 42.75it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  44%|█████▎      | 2141/4877 [00:54<01:00, 44.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  44%|█████▎      | 2151/4877 [00:54<00:57, 47.12it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  44%|█████▎      | 2161/4877 [00:55<00:59, 45.71it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  45%|█████▎      | 2171/4877 [00:55<00:58, 46.38it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  45%|█████▎      | 2181/4877 [00:55<00:58, 45.92it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  45%|█████▍      | 2191/4877 [00:55<00:55, 48.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  45%|█████▍      | 2201/4877 [00:55<00:59, 45.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  45%|█████▍      | 2211/4877 [00:56<00:53, 49.56it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  46%|█████▍      | 2221/4877 [00:56<00:54, 48.72it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  46%|█████▍      | 2231/4877 [00:56<01:04, 41.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 923.9526741069262 is not greater than 923.9611078792373. Delta is -0.008433772311036591
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  46%|█████▌      | 2241/4877 [00:56<01:06, 39.93it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  46%|█████▌      | 2251/4877 [00:57<01:03, 41.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 922.3573787031927 is not greater than 922.3675514305432. Delta is -0.010172727350550304
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  46%|█████▌      | 2261/4877 [00:57<00:56, 46.19it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  47%|█████▌      | 2271/4877 [00:57<01:02, 41.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  47%|█████▌      | 2281/4877 [00:57<01:08, 37.84it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  47%|█████▋      | 2291/4877 [00:58<01:11, 36.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 910.4564271475523 is not greater than 910.4918409915964. Delta is -0.03541384404411474
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  47%|█████▋      | 2301/4877 [00:58<01:07, 37.95it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  47%|█████▋      | 2311/4877 [00:58<01:05, 39.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 917.0306590329171 is not greater than 917.0564087663415. Delta is -0.025749733424390797
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  48%|█████▋      | 2321/4877 [00:58<01:09, 36.92it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  48%|█████▋      | 2331/4877 [00:59<01:07, 37.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 913.1282535328796 is not greater than 913.4867077744597. Delta is -0.35845424158003425
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  48%|█████▊      | 2341/4877 [00:59<01:06, 38.42it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 897.1006844228629 is not greater than 897.1268869441907. Delta is -0.026202521327832073
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  48%|█████▊      | 2351/4877 [00:59<00:57, 44.19it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  48%|█████▊      | 2361/4877 [00:59<00:54, 46.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  49%|█████▊      | 2371/4877 [01:00<00:56, 44.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 866.0680380106288 is not greater than 866.0996075717566. Delta is -0.03156956112775333
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  49%|█████▊      | 2381/4877 [01:00<00:58, 42.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 848.1062093588166 is not greater than 848.1681955092707. Delta is -0.061986150454117706
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  49%|█████▉      | 2391/4877 [01:00<01:10, 35.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 837.356050687453 is not greater than 837.385932052588. Delta is -0.029881365134997395
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  49%|█████▉      | 2401/4877 [01:00<01:12, 34.15it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  49%|█████▉      | 2411/4877 [01:01<01:05, 37.69it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  50%|█████▉      | 2421/4877 [01:01<01:10, 34.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  50%|█████▉      | 2431/4877 [01:01<01:05, 37.56it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  50%|██████      | 2441/4877 [01:01<01:02, 38.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 786.6081630049123 is not greater than 786.612387994811. Delta is -0.004224989898716558
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  50%|██████      | 2451/4877 [01:02<01:14, 32.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  50%|██████      | 2461/4877 [01:02<01:26, 28.07it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  51%|██████      | 2471/4877 [01:03<01:33, 25.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 757.0049993901339 is not greater than 757.020615872658. Delta is -0.01561648252413761
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  51%|██████      | 2481/4877 [01:03<01:18, 30.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  51%|██████▏     | 2491/4877 [01:03<01:21, 29.39it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  51%|██████▏     | 2501/4877 [01:04<01:15, 31.43it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  51%|██████▏     | 2511/4877 [01:04<01:06, 35.49it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  52%|██████▏     | 2521/4877 [01:04<01:07, 34.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  52%|██████▏     | 2531/4877 [01:04<01:06, 35.36it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  52%|██████▎     | 2541/4877 [01:05<01:04, 36.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  52%|██████▎     | 2551/4877 [01:05<01:05, 35.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  53%|██████▎     | 2561/4877 [01:06<01:24, 27.53it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  53%|██████▎     | 2571/4877 [01:06<01:25, 26.89it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  53%|██████▎     | 2581/4877 [01:06<01:16, 30.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 661.0863830832614 is not greater than 661.0961205263109. Delta is -0.009737443049516514
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  53%|██████▍     | 2591/4877 [01:07<01:17, 29.43it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  53%|██████▍     | 2601/4877 [01:07<01:29, 25.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  54%|██████▍     | 2611/4877 [01:07<01:19, 28.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 648.5429030346318 is not greater than 648.5713274531371. Delta is -0.028424418505323956
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  54%|██████▍     | 2621/4877 [01:08<01:15, 30.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  54%|██████▍     | 2631/4877 [01:08<01:37, 23.06it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  54%|██████▍     | 2641/4877 [01:09<01:45, 21.28it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  54%|██████▌     | 2651/4877 [01:09<01:33, 23.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 620.704604462468 is not greater than 620.7369752476345. Delta is -0.03237078516656311
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  55%|██████▌     | 2661/4877 [01:09<01:17, 28.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  55%|██████▌     | 2671/4877 [01:10<01:15, 29.38it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  55%|██████▌     | 2681/4877 [01:10<01:13, 29.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 624.3919850173451 is not greater than 624.3970526307347. Delta is -0.0050676133896558895
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  55%|██████▌     | 2691/4877 [01:10<01:06, 32.72it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  55%|██████▋     | 2701/4877 [01:11<01:49, 19.83it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  56%|██████▋     | 2711/4877 [01:12<01:51, 19.51it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  56%|██████▋     | 2721/4877 [01:12<01:36, 22.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 624.57510116268 is not greater than 624.5808173013281. Delta is -0.005716138648153901
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  56%|██████▋     | 2731/4877 [01:12<01:23, 25.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  56%|██████▋     | 2741/4877 [01:13<01:31, 23.25it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  56%|██████▊     | 2751/4877 [01:13<01:36, 22.12it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  57%|██████▊     | 2761/4877 [01:14<01:45, 20.04it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  57%|██████▊     | 2771/4877 [01:14<01:40, 21.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 635.6690373823546 is not greater than 635.670536702519. Delta is -0.0014993201643846987
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  57%|██████▊     | 2781/4877 [01:14<01:19, 26.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  57%|██████▊     | 2791/4877 [01:15<01:09, 29.89it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  57%|██████▉     | 2801/4877 [01:15<01:06, 31.41it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  58%|██████▉     | 2811/4877 [01:15<01:07, 30.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 633.0938617214056 is not greater than 633.0949285131998. Delta is -0.0010667917941873384
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  58%|██████▉     | 2821/4877 [01:16<01:04, 32.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  58%|██████▉     | 2831/4877 [01:16<00:55, 36.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  58%|██████▉     | 2841/4877 [01:16<00:53, 37.93it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  58%|███████     | 2851/4877 [01:16<00:49, 40.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  59%|███████     | 2861/4877 [01:16<00:44, 45.72it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  59%|███████     | 2871/4877 [01:17<00:40, 50.00it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  59%|███████     | 2881/4877 [01:17<00:44, 44.36it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  59%|███████     | 2891/4877 [01:17<00:42, 47.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 660.6585966606818 is not greater than 660.6592595434737. Delta is -0.0006628827918575553
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  59%|███████▏    | 2901/4877 [01:17<00:39, 49.44it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  60%|███████▏    | 2911/4877 [01:17<00:41, 47.49it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  60%|███████▏    | 2921/4877 [01:18<00:49, 39.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 683.7940460150055 is not greater than 683.7955767958626. Delta is -0.00153078085713787
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  60%|███████▏    | 2931/4877 [01:18<01:02, 31.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  60%|███████▏    | 2941/4877 [01:19<01:14, 25.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  61%|███████▎    | 2951/4877 [01:19<00:59, 32.44it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  61%|███████▎    | 2961/4877 [01:19<00:49, 39.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 723.7805751727598 is not greater than 723.7857237736076. Delta is -0.005148600847860507
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  61%|███████▎    | 2971/4877 [01:19<00:43, 44.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 727.228175158892 is not greater than 727.2343702907549. Delta is -0.006195131862909875
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  61%|███████▎    | 2981/4877 [01:19<00:43, 43.95it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  61%|███████▎    | 2991/4877 [01:20<00:42, 44.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 736.5393202233097 is not greater than 736.5416605156614. Delta is -0.002340292351732387
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  62%|███████▍    | 3001/4877 [01:20<00:37, 50.69it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  62%|███████▍    | 3011/4877 [01:20<00:40, 45.68it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 743.6059339699988 is not greater than 743.7626733190901. Delta is -0.15673934909136733
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  62%|███████▍    | 3021/4877 [01:20<00:44, 41.71it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  62%|███████▍    | 3031/4877 [01:20<00:38, 47.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 751.4325793151044 is not greater than 751.4452383019436. Delta is -0.012658986839255704
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  62%|███████▍    | 3041/4877 [01:21<00:33, 54.15it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  63%|███████▌    | 3051/4877 [01:21<00:34, 53.19it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 763.2166676238834 is not greater than 763.2222169134543. Delta is -0.005549289570922156
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  63%|███████▌    | 3061/4877 [01:21<00:34, 52.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 764.4429485870111 is not greater than 764.5670665133772. Delta is -0.12411792636612518
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  63%|███████▌    | 3071/4877 [01:21<00:40, 44.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  63%|███████▌    | 3081/4877 [01:22<00:58, 30.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 777.9939894969704 is not greater than 778.0004948540736. Delta is -0.0065053571032649415
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  63%|███████▌    | 3091/4877 [01:22<00:55, 31.91it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  64%|███████▋    | 3101/4877 [01:23<01:06, 26.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  64%|███████▋    | 3111/4877 [01:23<01:02, 28.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  64%|███████▋    | 3121/4877 [01:23<01:05, 26.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 806.8128646674971 is not greater than 806.834929962232. Delta is -0.022065294734829877
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  64%|███████▋    | 3131/4877 [01:24<00:54, 32.09it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  64%|███████▋    | 3141/4877 [01:24<00:53, 32.72it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  65%|███████▊    | 3151/4877 [01:24<00:51, 33.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 820.4060680924939 is not greater than 820.445223542695. Delta is -0.03915545020106492
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  65%|███████▊    | 3161/4877 [01:24<00:50, 33.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 826.2752113289184 is not greater than 826.2909337018882. Delta is -0.015722372969776188
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  65%|███████▊    | 3171/4877 [01:25<00:51, 32.91it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 826.0182622067491 is not greater than 826.0248296626347. Delta is -0.006567455885601703
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  65%|███████▊    | 3181/4877 [01:25<00:51, 32.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  65%|███████▊    | 3191/4877 [01:25<00:58, 29.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 823.1778152446061 is not greater than 823.18272268567. Delta is -0.004907441063892293
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  66%|███████▉    | 3201/4877 [01:26<00:46, 35.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 821.1322101726042 is not greater than 821.2621419798128. Delta is -0.1299318072085498
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  66%|███████▉    | 3211/4877 [01:26<00:49, 33.47it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  66%|███████▉    | 3221/4877 [01:26<00:49, 33.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 822.5352461211776 is not greater than 822.5580959141982. Delta is -0.022849793020668585
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  66%|███████▉    | 3231/4877 [01:27<00:50, 32.75it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  66%|███████▉    | 3241/4877 [01:27<00:56, 29.00it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  67%|███████▉    | 3251/4877 [01:28<01:04, 25.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 813.901372721457 is not greater than 813.9015411208061. Delta is -0.00016839934903600806
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  67%|████████    | 3261/4877 [01:28<01:03, 25.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  67%|████████    | 3271/4877 [01:28<01:08, 23.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  67%|████████    | 3281/4877 [01:29<01:22, 19.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 824.3915979408328 is not greater than 824.4074704732969. Delta is -0.015872532464186406
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  67%|████████    | 3291/4877 [01:29<01:05, 24.34it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  68%|████████    | 3301/4877 [01:29<00:52, 29.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  68%|████████▏   | 3311/4877 [01:30<00:53, 29.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  68%|████████▏   | 3321/4877 [01:30<00:56, 27.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  68%|████████▏   | 3331/4877 [01:30<00:47, 32.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 825.928544744318 is not greater than 825.9341274733355. Delta is -0.0055827290175329836
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  69%|████████▏   | 3341/4877 [01:31<00:39, 39.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 810.6075926712095 is not greater than 810.6816333449822. Delta is -0.0740406737726289
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  69%|████████▏   | 3351/4877 [01:31<00:34, 43.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 808.6831424454313 is not greater than 808.6952708981037. Delta is -0.012128452672413914
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  69%|████████▎   | 3361/4877 [01:32<01:05, 23.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  69%|████████▎   | 3371/4877 [01:32<01:11, 21.10it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  69%|████████▎   | 3381/4877 [01:33<01:25, 17.55it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  70%|████████▎   | 3391/4877 [01:33<01:14, 19.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 773.7654297686969 is not greater than 773.8214858941609. Delta is -0.05605612546401062
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  70%|████████▎   | 3401/4877 [01:34<01:02, 23.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  70%|████████▍   | 3411/4877 [01:35<01:47, 13.67it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  70%|████████▍   | 3421/4877 [01:35<01:26, 16.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  70%|████████▍   | 3431/4877 [01:36<01:25, 16.98it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  71%|████████▍   | 3441/4877 [01:36<01:15, 19.07it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  71%|████████▍   | 3451/4877 [01:36<01:00, 23.70it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  71%|████████▌   | 3461/4877 [01:37<00:53, 26.56it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  71%|████████▌   | 3471/4877 [01:37<00:42, 33.26it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  71%|████████▌   | 3481/4877 [01:37<00:41, 33.42it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  72%|████████▌   | 3491/4877 [01:37<00:41, 33.33it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  72%|████████▌   | 3501/4877 [01:38<00:36, 37.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 754.7514720451466 is not greater than 754.7890815022602. Delta is -0.03760945711360364
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  72%|████████▋   | 3511/4877 [01:38<00:38, 35.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 752.8961504914892 is not greater than 752.8991492477711. Delta is -0.002998756281954229
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  72%|████████▋   | 3521/4877 [01:38<00:33, 40.84it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  72%|████████▋   | 3531/4877 [01:38<00:31, 43.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 738.8206102594172 is not greater than 738.8292417844762. Delta is -0.008631525058945044
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  73%|████████▋   | 3541/4877 [01:38<00:27, 47.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  73%|████████▋   | 3551/4877 [01:39<00:31, 42.45it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  73%|████████▊   | 3561/4877 [01:39<00:34, 37.94it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  73%|████████▊   | 3571/4877 [01:39<00:36, 36.04it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  73%|████████▊   | 3581/4877 [01:40<00:36, 35.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  74%|████████▊   | 3591/4877 [01:40<00:38, 33.11it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  74%|████████▊   | 3601/4877 [01:40<00:36, 34.65it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  74%|████████▉   | 3611/4877 [01:41<00:36, 34.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 728.795247945218 is not greater than 728.8293201717065. Delta is -0.03407222648854713
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  74%|████████▉   | 3621/4877 [01:41<00:32, 38.72it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  74%|████████▉   | 3631/4877 [01:41<00:29, 42.61it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  75%|████████▉   | 3641/4877 [01:41<00:28, 42.86it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  75%|████████▉   | 3651/4877 [01:41<00:24, 49.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  75%|█████████   | 3661/4877 [01:41<00:22, 53.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 737.1942143544633 is not greater than 737.2027303044928. Delta is -0.008515950029504893
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  75%|█████████   | 3671/4877 [01:42<00:20, 57.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 718.9619793182428 is not greater than 718.9717041388928. Delta is -0.009724820650035326
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  75%|█████████   | 3681/4877 [01:42<00:23, 50.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 697.2640714326086 is not greater than 697.4521600426813. Delta is -0.18808861007266842
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  76%|█████████   | 3691/4877 [01:42<00:20, 57.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 674.5366570379804 is not greater than 674.5543541977504. Delta is -0.017697159770023063
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  76%|█████████   | 3701/4877 [01:42<00:18, 65.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  76%|█████████▏  | 3711/4877 [01:42<00:21, 53.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 637.9916604981613 is not greater than 638.019430832064. Delta is -0.027770333902708444
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  76%|█████████▏  | 3721/4877 [01:42<00:20, 56.64it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  77%|█████████▏  | 3731/4877 [01:43<00:17, 64.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 622.657490459349 is not greater than 622.6617224801846. Delta is -0.004232020835615913
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  77%|█████████▏  | 3741/4877 [01:43<00:18, 61.27it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  77%|█████████▏  | 3751/4877 [01:43<00:26, 43.18it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  77%|█████████▎  | 3761/4877 [01:43<00:29, 37.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  77%|█████████▎  | 3771/4877 [01:44<00:34, 32.29it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  78%|█████████▎  | 3781/4877 [01:44<00:33, 32.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 624.7274718216952 is not greater than 624.7712230520393. Delta is -0.04375123034412809
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  78%|█████████▎  | 3791/4877 [01:44<00:28, 38.64it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  78%|█████████▎  | 3801/4877 [01:45<00:25, 42.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  78%|█████████▍  | 3811/4877 [01:45<00:40, 26.12it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  78%|█████████▍  | 3821/4877 [01:46<00:42, 24.83it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  79%|█████████▍  | 3831/4877 [01:46<00:42, 24.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  79%|█████████▍  | 3841/4877 [01:47<00:54, 19.00it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  79%|█████████▍  | 3851/4877 [01:47<00:47, 21.57it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  79%|█████████▌  | 3861/4877 [01:48<00:48, 21.13it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  79%|█████████▌  | 3871/4877 [01:48<00:45, 22.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 613.1537935220604 is not greater than 613.1647894733018. Delta is -0.010995951241397961
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  80%|█████████▌  | 3881/4877 [01:48<00:39, 25.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  80%|█████████▌  | 3891/4877 [01:49<00:37, 26.07it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  80%|█████████▌  | 3901/4877 [01:49<00:35, 27.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  80%|█████████▌  | 3911/4877 [01:49<00:35, 27.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  80%|█████████▋  | 3921/4877 [01:50<00:36, 26.25it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  81%|█████████▋  | 3931/4877 [01:51<01:01, 15.35it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 598.6708375053895 is not greater than 598.6712809150519. Delta is -0.0004434096623526784
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  81%|█████████▋  | 3941/4877 [01:52<00:54, 17.10it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  81%|█████████▋  | 3951/4877 [01:52<00:50, 18.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  81%|█████████▋  | 3961/4877 [01:52<00:45, 19.93it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  81%|█████████▊  | 3971/4877 [01:53<00:49, 18.26it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 641.3860258880003 is not greater than 641.4430374844035. Delta is -0.05701159640318565
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  82%|█████████▊  | 3981/4877 [01:53<00:44, 20.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  82%|█████████▊  | 3991/4877 [01:54<00:57, 15.37it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  82%|█████████▊  | 4001/4877 [01:56<01:15, 11.64it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  82%|█████████▊  | 4011/4877 [01:57<01:12, 11.98it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  82%|█████████▉  | 4021/4877 [01:57<01:03, 13.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  83%|█████████▉  | 4031/4877 [01:57<00:50, 16.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 732.8364847033063 is not greater than 732.8517997984898. Delta is -0.015315095183495941
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  83%|█████████▉  | 4041/4877 [01:58<00:43, 19.24it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  83%|█████████▉  | 4051/4877 [01:58<00:37, 22.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  83%|█████████▉  | 4061/4877 [01:58<00:33, 24.45it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  83%|██████████  | 4071/4877 [01:58<00:27, 29.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  84%|██████████  | 4081/4877 [01:59<00:22, 35.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  84%|██████████  | 4091/4877 [01:59<00:20, 38.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  84%|██████████  | 4101/4877 [01:59<00:18, 41.20it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  84%|██████████  | 4111/4877 [01:59<00:20, 36.63it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  84%|██████████▏ | 4121/4877 [02:00<00:21, 35.31it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  85%|██████████▏ | 4131/4877 [02:00<00:23, 32.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  85%|██████████▏ | 4141/4877 [02:00<00:25, 28.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 749.9880032869801 is not greater than 750.0273316061146. Delta is -0.039328319134483536
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  85%|██████████▏ | 4151/4877 [02:01<00:23, 31.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 750.7959573436223 is not greater than 750.8317457446572. Delta is -0.03578840103489256
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  85%|██████████▏ | 4161/4877 [02:01<00:19, 35.87it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  86%|██████████▎ | 4171/4877 [02:01<00:21, 33.55it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  86%|██████████▎ | 4181/4877 [02:02<00:21, 32.95it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  86%|██████████▎ | 4191/4877 [02:02<00:21, 32.50it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  86%|██████████▎ | 4201/4877 [02:02<00:21, 31.12it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  86%|██████████▎ | 4211/4877 [02:03<00:21, 31.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 694.1813457582035 is not greater than 694.1905426569524. Delta is -0.009196898748882631
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  87%|██████████▍ | 4221/4877 [02:03<00:17, 36.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 701.9773922237862 is not greater than 701.9784434494834. Delta is -0.0010512256972106115
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  87%|██████████▍ | 4231/4877 [02:03<00:16, 39.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  87%|██████████▍ | 4241/4877 [02:03<00:19, 32.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  87%|██████████▍ | 4251/4877 [02:04<00:24, 25.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  87%|██████████▍ | 4261/4877 [02:04<00:22, 27.91it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  88%|██████████▌ | 4271/4877 [02:04<00:18, 32.05it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  88%|██████████▌ | 4281/4877 [02:05<00:16, 36.13it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  88%|██████████▌ | 4291/4877 [02:05<00:16, 36.23it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  88%|██████████▌ | 4301/4877 [02:05<00:16, 35.06it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  88%|██████████▌ | 4311/4877 [02:05<00:15, 37.57it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  89%|██████████▋ | 4321/4877 [02:06<00:16, 33.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  89%|██████████▋ | 4331/4877 [02:06<00:17, 31.32it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  89%|██████████▋ | 4341/4877 [02:07<00:17, 31.52it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  89%|██████████▋ | 4351/4877 [02:07<00:18, 27.93it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  89%|██████████▋ | 4361/4877 [02:07<00:17, 29.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  90%|██████████▊ | 4371/4877 [02:07<00:15, 33.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  90%|██████████▊ | 4381/4877 [02:08<00:17, 29.09it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  90%|██████████▊ | 4391/4877 [02:08<00:17, 28.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  90%|██████████▊ | 4401/4877 [02:09<00:16, 28.71it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  90%|██████████▊ | 4411/4877 [02:09<00:17, 27.25it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  91%|██████████▉ | 4421/4877 [02:09<00:13, 32.74it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  91%|██████████▉ | 4431/4877 [02:09<00:12, 36.69it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  91%|██████████▉ | 4441/4877 [02:10<00:10, 43.35it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  91%|██████████▉ | 4451/4877 [02:10<00:09, 46.01it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  91%|██████████▉ | 4461/4877 [02:10<00:11, 37.66it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  92%|███████████ | 4471/4877 [02:10<00:10, 39.44it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 660.5840307302385 is not greater than 660.5910682041332. Delta is -0.007037473894683899
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  92%|███████████ | 4481/4877 [02:11<00:10, 38.33it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  92%|███████████ | 4491/4877 [02:11<00:09, 42.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 674.9110199608933 is not greater than 674.9225070375367. Delta is -0.011487076643334149
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  92%|███████████ | 4511/4877 [02:11<00:06, 56.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 684.9144923502135 is not greater than 684.9797523742783. Delta is -0.06526002406474163
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  93%|███████████ | 4521/4877 [02:11<00:06, 59.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 685.356777062604 is not greater than 685.375791430022. Delta is -0.019014367417980793
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  93%|███████████▏| 4531/4877 [02:11<00:05, 65.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  93%|███████████▏| 4541/4877 [02:12<00:06, 51.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  93%|███████████▏| 4551/4877 [02:12<00:06, 50.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 709.0599683948362 is not greater than 709.0684198841052. Delta is -0.008451489268963996
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  94%|███████████▏| 4561/4877 [02:12<00:06, 47.29it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  94%|███████████▏| 4571/4877 [02:12<00:06, 49.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 709.6931820262267 is not greater than 709.6966132370408. Delta is -0.003431210814028418
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  94%|███████████▎| 4581/4877 [02:12<00:05, 54.23it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  94%|███████████▎| 4591/4877 [02:12<00:05, 55.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 712.3188520669663 is not greater than 712.3205807439296. Delta is -0.0017286769632391952
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  95%|███████████▎| 4611/4877 [02:13<00:03, 68.29it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  95%|███████████▎| 4621/4877 [02:13<00:03, 64.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  95%|███████████▍| 4631/4877 [02:13<00:05, 48.09it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 724.21607763442 is not greater than 724.7617188959426. Delta is -0.5456412615226327
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  95%|███████████▍| 4641/4877 [02:14<00:05, 42.44it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  95%|███████████▍| 4651/4877 [02:14<00:05, 44.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 733.0894672623141 is not greater than 733.1847970522178. Delta is -0.09532978990375796
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  96%|███████████▍| 4661/4877 [02:14<00:04, 46.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  96%|███████████▍| 4671/4877 [02:14<00:04, 46.03it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  96%|███████████▌| 4681/4877 [02:14<00:04, 42.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 742.5486736534682 is not greater than 742.5607757529989. Delta is -0.012102099530693522
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  96%|███████████▌| 4691/4877 [02:15<00:04, 39.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  96%|███████████▌| 4701/4877 [02:15<00:03, 45.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 749.0503142701824 is not greater than 749.1459499013374. Delta is -0.09563563115500529
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  97%|███████████▌| 4711/4877 [02:15<00:03, 46.94it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  97%|███████████▌| 4721/4877 [02:15<00:03, 49.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 757.2973216118987 is not greater than 757.3322227387121. Delta is -0.034901126813338124
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  97%|███████████▋| 4731/4877 [02:16<00:03, 44.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 762.1402074134585 is not greater than 762.1408340000837. Delta is -0.0006265866252306296
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  97%|███████████▋| 4741/4877 [02:16<00:02, 48.90it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  98%|███████████▋| 4761/4877 [02:16<00:02, 55.97it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 771.7477243604467 is not greater than 771.7518954688752. Delta is -0.00417110842852253
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  98%|███████████▋| 4771/4877 [02:16<00:02, 48.86it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  98%|███████████▊| 4781/4877 [02:16<00:01, 51.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 772.9414537338656 is not greater than 772.9519823891559. Delta is -0.010528655290272582
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  98%|███████████▊| 4791/4877 [02:17<00:01, 48.75it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  98%|███████████▊| 4801/4877 [02:17<00:01, 39.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 771.3367410841056 is not greater than 771.3438411507213. Delta is -0.007100066615748801
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  99%|███████████▊| 4811/4877 [02:17<00:01, 41.37it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  99%|███████████▊| 4821/4877 [02:18<00:01, 35.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 758.0706751078789 is not greater than 758.3774484638591. Delta is -0.30677335598022637
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  99%|███████████▉| 4831/4877 [02:18<00:01, 35.33it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD:  99%|███████████▉| 4841/4877 [02:18<00:00, 37.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 750.9209050191702 is not greater than 750.9248488668687. Delta is -0.0039438476985651505
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 748.4941763811971 is not greater than 748.5231884371134. Delta is -0.029012055916268764
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD: 100%|███████████▉| 4861/4877 [02:18<00:00, 49.80it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_51300/2445616600.py:97: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV sur BTC-USD: 100%|████████████| 4877/4877 [02:19<00:00, 35.06it/s]

Performance HMMSV optimisé sur BTC-USD :
Rendement annualisé = 48.00%
Volatilité annualisée = 33.66%
Sharpe Ratio = 1.43
Volatilité prévisionnelle (moyenne pondérée) = 0.0101

V3 MODIF

import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm

# 1. Télécharger les données du SP500 (ici '^GSPC')
data = yf.download('CL=F', start='2014-01-01', end='2025-01-01')
# Utilisation du "Close" pour ce code
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
# Calcul de la MA100 pour le filtre de tendance (MA100)
data['MA100'] = data['Close'].rolling(100).mean()
data.dropna(inplace=True)
log_returns = data['Log_Returns'].values

# 2. Paramètres du rolling
window = 300   # Fenêtre pour capter rapidement la dynamique
refit_every = 10  # Réestimation plus fréquente
positions, dates, returns_strategy, regime_list = [], [], [], []

# Paramètres pour la modulation de volatilité
vol_threshold = 0.03         # Seuil de volatilité attendu (exemple: 3% de volatilité journalière)
modulation_factor = 0.5      # Facteur de réduction de signal si volatilité trop forte
epsilon = 1e-8               # Petite constante pour éviter log(0)

for t in tqdm(range(window, len(data)-1), desc="Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100"):
    if (t - window) % refit_every != 0:
        continue

    # Extraction de la fenêtre d'observations
    window_returns = log_returns[t-window:t].reshape(-1, 1)
    
    # Ajustement de l'HMM (ici avec 3 états)
    model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=300)
    try:
        if np.var(window_returns) < 1e-8:
            continue
        model.fit(window_returns)
        if not np.allclose(model.transmat_.sum(axis=1), 1):
            continue
        if not np.all(np.isfinite(model.covars_)):
            continue
    except:
        continue
    
    # Extraction des probabilités d'appartenance via predict_proba
    proba = model.predict_proba(window_returns)
    last_proba = proba[-1]
    
    # Reclassification des états en fonction de la volatilité
    if model.covars_.ndim == 3:
        vols = [np.trace(model.covars_[i]) for i in range(3)]
    else:
        vols = model.covars_.flatten()
    sorted_idx = np.argsort(vols)  # ordre croissant: 0 = état le moins volatil, 2 = état le plus volatil
    remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sorted_idx)}
    reordered_proba = np.zeros(3)
    for i in range(3):
        reordered_proba[remap[i]] = last_proba[i]
    
    # Construction du signal de base à partir des probabilités
    # On assume que :
    # - l'état 0 correspond à un régime "calme" (signal haussier),
    # - l'état 2 correspond à un régime "panique" (signal baissier),
    # et on ignore l'état intermédiaire (signal pondéré par 0).
    # Le choix des poids dépend de la tendance du marché observée.
    current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
    current_MA100 = float(data['MA100'].iloc[t])
    if current_close > current_MA100:
        w_long = 2.0
        w_short = -0.25
    else:
        w_long = 0.75
        w_short = -1.0
    signal_base = reordered_proba[0]*w_long + reordered_proba[2]*w_short
    
    # Estimation dynamique de la volatilité par un modèle AR(1) sur log(r^2)
    log_sq = np.log(window_returns**2 + epsilon)
    # Construction des paires (lag 1) pour ajuster y_t = phi * y_{t-1} + c
    X = log_sq[:-1].flatten()
    Y = log_sq[1:].flatten()
    try:
        phi, c = np.polyfit(X, Y, 1)
    except:
        continue
    h_last = log_sq[-1, 0]
    sigma_forecast = np.exp(h_last/2)
    
    # Modulation du signal par la volatilité prévue
    if sigma_forecast > vol_threshold:
        signal_modulated = signal_base * modulation_factor
    else:
        signal_modulated = signal_base
    
    # Application du filtre MA100: si le prix actuel est inférieur ou égal à la MA100, 
    # on neutralise le signal
    if current_close <= current_MA100:
        signal_final = 0
    else:
        signal_final = signal_modulated
    
    # Calcul du rendement du jour suivant et enregistrement du signal
    r_tomorrow = log_returns[t+1]
    positions.append(signal_final)
    dates.append(data.index[t+1])
    returns_strategy.append(signal_final * r_tomorrow)
    regime_list.append(np.argmax(reordered_proba))

# 3. Construction du DataFrame des résultats
df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Regime': regime_list
}).set_index('Date')

df['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df.index]).cumprod()

# 4. Graphique comparatif avec affichage de la MA100
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(14,6))
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Market'], '--', label='Buy & Hold', color='gray')
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='HMMSV Optimisé avec MA100', color='blue')
ax1.set_ylabel("Capital cumulé (base 1)")
ax1.grid(True)
ax1.legend(loc='upper left')

ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(data.index, data['MA100'], label='MA100', color='orange', alpha=0.5)
ax2.set_ylabel("MA100")
ax2.legend(loc='upper right')

plt.title("Performance : Buy & Hold vs HMMSV Optimisé (avec MA100)")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 5. Statistiques finales
mean_model3 = np.mean(df['Return_Strategy']) * 252
vol_model3 = np.std(df['Return_Strategy']) * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe_model3 = mean_model3 / vol_model3

print("Performance HMMSV Optimisé avec MA100 sur BTC-USD :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé = {mean_model3:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée = {vol_model3:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe Ratio = {sharpe_model3:.2f}")

YF.download() has changed argument auto_adjust default to True

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/pandas/core/internals/blocks.py:329: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log
  result = func(self.values, **kwargs)
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   0%|                                                                                                                                             | 0/2364 [00:00<?, ?it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   0%|                                                                                                                                     | 1/2364 [00:00<30:42,  1.28it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   1%|█▏                                                                                                                                  | 21/2364 [00:00<01:13, 31.94it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   2%|██▎                                                                                                                                 | 41/2364 [00:01<00:38, 60.27it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   3%|███▉                                                                                                                               | 71/2364 [00:01<00:21, 106.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 646.5075822052492 is not greater than 646.5230315861371. Delta is -0.015449380887957886
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   4%|█████▌                                                                                                                            | 101/2364 [00:01<00:15, 148.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 644.4446530217456 is not greater than 644.4456808756261. Delta is -0.001027853880486873
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 628.9905134041696 is not greater than 628.9911407580179. Delta is -0.0006273538482446384
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   6%|███████▏                                                                                                                          | 131/2364 [00:01<00:12, 175.90it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   7%|████████▊                                                                                                                         | 161/2364 [00:01<00:11, 185.80it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 624.889183445518 is not greater than 624.8903389125999. Delta is -0.0011554670818441082
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:   8%|██████████▌                                                                                                                       | 191/2364 [00:01<00:11, 190.40it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 628.6064239525322 is not greater than 628.6164081916934. Delta is -0.009984239161212827
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  10%|████████████▋                                                                                                                     | 231/2364 [00:01<00:09, 220.43it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 638.6502782900135 is not greater than 638.6567976336801. Delta is -0.006519343666582245
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  11%|██████████████▎                                                                                                                   | 261/2364 [00:01<00:08, 235.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  12%|████████████████                                                                                                                  | 291/2364 [00:01<00:08, 242.53it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  14%|█████████████████▋                                                                                                                | 321/2364 [00:02<00:08, 248.86it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  15%|███████████████████▎                                                                                                              | 351/2364 [00:02<00:08, 246.15it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  16%|████████████████████▋                                                                                                             | 377/2364 [00:02<00:08, 245.52it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 665.098834577423 is not greater than 665.1006245573295. Delta is -0.0017899799065617117
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  17%|██████████████████████▏                                                                                                           | 403/2364 [00:02<00:08, 229.44it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  18%|███████████████████████▍                                                                                                          | 427/2364 [00:02<00:08, 230.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 709.3281808233431 is not greater than 709.3300621763128. Delta is -0.0018813529696899423
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  19%|████████████████████████▊                                                                                                         | 451/2364 [00:02<00:09, 207.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 725.9031397959719 is not greater than 725.9492129668544. Delta is -0.0460731708824369
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 732.7009646352612 is not greater than 732.8629882806802. Delta is -0.16202364541891257
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 736.6219229632032 is not greater than 736.6286271686795. Delta is -0.006704205476239622
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 732.8505097570898 is not greater than 732.9917899694709. Delta is -0.14128021238116162
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  21%|███████████████████████████                                                                                                       | 491/2364 [00:02<00:07, 240.55it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 740.1214674157168 is not greater than 740.1388098151222. Delta is -0.017342399405379183
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  22%|████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                     | 521/2364 [00:02<00:07, 230.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  23%|██████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                   | 551/2364 [00:03<00:07, 236.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 768.2124191123219 is not greater than 768.3546046556544. Delta is -0.14218554333251632
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 781.0244317753327 is not greater than 781.061135393785. Delta is -0.036703618452293085
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  25%|███████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                  | 581/2364 [00:03<00:07, 246.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 794.9528389691475 is not greater than 794.9866451643275. Delta is -0.033806195179977294
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 800.0670680453925 is not greater than 800.0705562647843. Delta is -0.0034882193917837867
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 805.4722784441592 is not greater than 805.502300980347. Delta is -0.030022536187743754
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  26%|█████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                | 611/2364 [00:03<00:07, 237.78it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 806.4502430316775 is not greater than 806.8661098514375. Delta is -0.4158668197600264
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 816.5693081371243 is not greater than 816.5816443019245. Delta is -0.012336164800217375
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  27%|███████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                              | 641/2364 [00:03<00:06, 247.21it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 823.2387976836714 is not greater than 823.3956264697855. Delta is -0.15682878611414708
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  28%|████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                             | 671/2364 [00:03<00:06, 253.58it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 816.3521093799347 is not greater than 816.4192409873662. Delta is -0.06713160743140634
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 826.0994600227261 is not greater than 826.1141080412619. Delta is -0.01464801853580866
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 824.2371203339653 is not greater than 824.2413659223826. Delta is -0.004245588417234103
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 825.0130988598563 is not greater than 825.0193498808326. Delta is -0.006251020976264954
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████                                                                                           | 711/2364 [00:03<00:06, 271.73it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  31%|████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                         | 741/2364 [00:03<00:05, 276.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 817.9638955247314 is not greater than 818.0157419103382. Delta is -0.05184638560683652
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  33%|██████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                       | 771/2364 [00:03<00:05, 278.21it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 824.4774460004811 is not greater than 824.5307839641811. Delta is -0.0533379636999598
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  34%|████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                      | 801/2364 [00:04<00:05, 275.91it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 829.3415470210084 is not greater than 829.3926419106322. Delta is -0.05109488962375508
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  35%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                    | 831/2364 [00:04<00:05, 277.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 812.266105895571 is not greater than 812.3085478602387. Delta is -0.04244196466777339
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 781.3742451998563 is not greater than 781.3974035357668. Delta is -0.02315833591046612
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  37%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                  | 871/2364 [00:04<00:05, 284.25it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 777.0037206321156 is not greater than 777.0053304342808. Delta is -0.0016098021652624084
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  38%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                | 901/2364 [00:04<00:05, 281.79it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  39%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                              | 930/2364 [00:04<00:05, 284.00it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 776.846385887613 is not greater than 776.9623131270744. Delta is -0.11592723946137085
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  41%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                             | 959/2364 [00:04<00:05, 269.90it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 765.3511072293417 is not greater than 765.4885192038179. Delta is -0.13741197447620834
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 763.8223452343392 is not greater than 763.9601011892566. Delta is -0.13775595491745207
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  42%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                           | 987/2364 [00:04<00:05, 272.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 752.5415477787932 is not greater than 752.6375697829154. Delta is -0.09602200412223283
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 754.0555427999388 is not greater than 754.087225624841. Delta is -0.03168282490219099
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 742.9009654186153 is not greater than 742.9427079965994. Delta is -0.04174257798410963
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  43%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                         | 1015/2364 [00:04<00:05, 262.57it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  44%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                        | 1042/2364 [00:04<00:05, 222.67it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 736.4030810247934 is not greater than 736.4077961102355. Delta is -0.004715085442057898
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  45%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                      | 1066/2364 [00:05<00:07, 176.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  46%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                     | 1091/2364 [00:05<00:06, 185.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 731.1846307593174 is not greater than 731.22587311534. Delta is -0.04124235602262161
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  47%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                   | 1121/2364 [00:05<00:06, 205.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 735.602274436971 is not greater than 735.7277171602415. Delta is -0.12544272327045292
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 741.1947635952566 is not greater than 741.2280828268282. Delta is -0.0333192315715678
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 743.6016361242711 is not greater than 743.6120754533913. Delta is -0.010439329120231378
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  49%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                 | 1161/2364 [00:05<00:05, 232.12it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  50%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                | 1191/2364 [00:05<00:04, 238.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 647.5264445175505 is not greater than 647.5826429877386. Delta is -0.056198470188064675
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 636.6615549297708 is not greater than 636.6862940276174. Delta is -0.02473909784657735
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 624.9197452790698 is not greater than 624.9236891649211. Delta is -0.003943885851299456
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  52%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                              | 1221/2364 [00:05<00:04, 251.98it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  53%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                             | 1247/2364 [00:05<00:05, 204.06it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  54%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                           | 1271/2364 [00:06<00:05, 186.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  55%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                          | 1292/2364 [00:06<00:06, 173.39it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 616.6265500748794 is not greater than 616.7113661595265. Delta is -0.08481608464705914
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  55%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                         | 1311/2364 [00:06<00:06, 172.74it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  56%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                        | 1331/2364 [00:06<00:06, 170.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 615.4376330572429 is not greater than 615.4410685911536. Delta is -0.003435533910646882
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 615.1557515781748 is not greater than 615.1733976578867. Delta is -0.017646079711880702
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 620.503923389604 is not greater than 620.5232114226499. Delta is -0.019288033045882003
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  58%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                      | 1371/2364 [00:06<00:04, 206.66it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 614.2027288466173 is not greater than 614.2160834134197. Delta is -0.013354566802377121
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  60%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                    | 1411/2364 [00:06<00:04, 235.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  61%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                  | 1441/2364 [00:06<00:03, 251.11it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 646.6280133227546 is not greater than 646.6328673803383. Delta is -0.004854057583770555
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  63%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                | 1481/2364 [00:07<00:03, 267.39it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 697.9395299934544 is not greater than 697.9524484548447. Delta is -0.012918461390313496
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  64%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                              | 1511/2364 [00:07<00:03, 260.45it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  65%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                             | 1541/2364 [00:07<00:03, 241.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  66%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                           | 1566/2364 [00:07<00:03, 209.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 741.0232673902635 is not greater than 741.0546785504655. Delta is -0.031411160201969324
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  67%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                          | 1588/2364 [00:07<00:03, 207.95it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  68%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                         | 1610/2364 [00:07<00:03, 196.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 739.6136116961072 is not greater than 739.6202459495495. Delta is -0.006634253442257432
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  69%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                        | 1630/2364 [00:07<00:03, 188.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 758.180826822143 is not greater than 758.2639962385186. Delta is -0.08316941637565378
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  70%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                       | 1651/2364 [00:07<00:04, 174.69it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  71%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                     | 1671/2364 [00:08<00:04, 163.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  72%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                    | 1691/2364 [00:08<00:03, 170.08it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  73%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                   | 1721/2364 [00:08<00:03, 199.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  74%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                  | 1742/2364 [00:08<00:03, 195.02it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  75%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                | 1762/2364 [00:08<00:03, 175.82it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  76%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                               | 1791/2364 [00:08<00:03, 170.85it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  77%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                             | 1821/2364 [00:08<00:02, 184.09it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  78%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                            | 1841/2364 [00:09<00:03, 165.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  79%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                           | 1871/2364 [00:09<00:02, 174.99it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  80%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                         | 1901/2364 [00:09<00:02, 189.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 651.9530977162967 is not greater than 651.9583639956805. Delta is -0.005266279383818073
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  82%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                       | 1931/2364 [00:09<00:02, 202.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  83%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                     | 1971/2364 [00:09<00:01, 228.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 670.9212949154862 is not greater than 670.9226926992293. Delta is -0.0013977837430729778
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 675.5688772843376 is not greater than 675.6596254975434. Delta is -0.09074821320575666
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 682.006565770877 is not greater than 682.0068439414654. Delta is -0.000278170588330795
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 685.7581495783792 is not greater than 685.7613132162815. Delta is -0.0031636379022756955
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  85%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                   | 2011/2364 [00:09<00:01, 259.63it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  86%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                 | 2041/2364 [00:09<00:01, 268.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 712.2611092968422 is not greater than 712.2622542789164. Delta is -0.0011449820742654993
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 708.8779919304735 is not greater than 708.9660631306537. Delta is -0.08807120018013848
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 709.4257957541804 is not greater than 709.4391102727368. Delta is -0.01331451855639898
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 711.9438910405925 is not greater than 711.9555083104942. Delta is -0.011617269901762484
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  88%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌               | 2081/2364 [00:09<00:00, 298.49it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 713.0495068875226 is not greater than 713.1265094181939. Delta is -0.0770025306712796
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 716.0272988367761 is not greater than 716.100399949007. Delta is -0.07310111223091553
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 721.6431614845375 is not greater than 721.7823751498544. Delta is -0.13921366531690182
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 721.6645195305679 is not greater than 721.6924716754282. Delta is -0.02795214486036457
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  90%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎            | 2131/2364 [00:10<00:00, 318.34it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 734.2815888995691 is not greater than 734.3326066719745. Delta is -0.05101777240543015
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  92%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍          | 2171/2364 [00:10<00:00, 300.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 740.7314129369616 is not greater than 740.7501536677844. Delta is -0.01874073082274208
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 749.7220768296087 is not greater than 749.92748643476. Delta is -0.205409605151317
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 752.5982319185748 is not greater than 752.6079809769029. Delta is -0.00974905832811146
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  94%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋        | 2211/2364 [00:10<00:00, 295.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 756.4433390917578 is not greater than 756.4516629315399. Delta is -0.008323839782065079
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 765.3995202572066 is not greater than 765.4469222977056. Delta is -0.04740204049892327
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 773.1496014089352 is not greater than 773.157107699063. Delta is -0.007506290127821558
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  95%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊      | 2251/2364 [00:10<00:00, 298.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 769.0246360375503 is not greater than 769.0295031000798. Delta is -0.004867062529456234
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 769.9594297403756 is not greater than 769.9595409009182. Delta is -0.00011116054258764052
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  97%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌    | 2282/2364 [00:10<00:00, 300.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 770.3985485080142 is not greater than 770.4560115520188. Delta is -0.05746304400463487
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  98%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏  | 2313/2364 [00:10<00:00, 288.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 756.35202171774 is not greater than 756.4343925398083. Delta is -0.08237082206835566
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 754.2267752819721 is not greater than 754.5596277635366. Delta is -0.3328524815644869
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100:  99%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎| 2351/2364 [00:10<00:00, 289.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 759.9455126025821 is not greater than 759.9645626655416. Delta is -0.019050062959536262
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/3839994625.py:68: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling HMMSV avec filtre MA100: 100%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████| 2364/2364 [00:10<00:00, 217.92it/s]

Performance HMMSV Optimisé avec MA100 sur BTC-USD :
Rendement annualisé = 64.86%
Volatilité annualisée = 40.84%
Sharpe Ratio = 1.59

V2

print("Shape du DataFrame :", data.shape)
print(data.head())

Shape du DataFrame : (0, 6)
Empty DataFrame
Columns: [(Adj Close, CL=F), (Close, CL=F), (High, CL=F), (Low, CL=F), (Open, CL=F), (Volume, CL=F)]
Index: []

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm

# 1. Chargement des données depuis fichier local (Stooq)
data = pd.read_csv("/Users/jeremy.duriez/Desktop/^spx_d.csv")
data = data[::-1]
data = data.rename(columns=str.strip)
data['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(data['Date'])
data.set_index('Date', inplace=True)
data = data[data.index >= '2000-01-01']

# 2. Calcul des log-returns et MA100
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data['MA100'] = data['Close'].rolling(100).mean()
data.dropna(inplace=True)
log_returns = data['Log_Returns'].values

# 3. Paramètres de la stratégie
window = 1000
refit_every = 30
positions, dates, returns_strategy, regime_list = [], [], [], []

for t in tqdm(range(window, len(data) - 1), desc="Rolling HMM Optimisé"):
    if (t - window) % refit_every != 0:
        continue

    window_returns = log_returns[t - window:t].reshape(-1, 1)
    model = GaussianHMM(n_components=4, covariance_type='full', n_iter=500)

    try:
        if np.var(window_returns) < 1e-8:
            continue
        model.fit(window_returns)
        if not np.allclose(model.transmat_.sum(axis=1), 1):
            continue
        if not np.all(np.isfinite(model.covars_)):
            continue
    except:
        continue

    proba = model.predict_proba(window_returns)
    last_proba = proba[-1]

    # Reclassement des régimes selon la volatilité
    if model.covars_.ndim == 3:
        vols = [np.trace(model.covars_[i]) for i in range(4)]
    else:
        vols = model.covars_.flatten()
    sorted_idx = np.argsort(vols)
    remap = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sorted_idx)}

    reordered_proba = np.zeros(4)
    for i in range(4):
        reordered_proba[remap[i]] = last_proba[i]

    # Signal pondéré par proba et régimes
    signal_continuous = (
        +1.0 * reordered_proba[0] +
        +0.5 * reordered_proba[1] +
        -0.5 * reordered_proba[2] +
        -1.0 * reordered_proba[3]
    )

    # Ajustement selon la tendance (MA100)
    current_close = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
    current_MA100 = float(data['MA100'].iloc[t])
    if current_close > current_MA100:
        signal_final = signal_continuous * 1.2
    else:
        signal_final = signal_continuous * 0.7

    # Ajustement selon la volatilité récente (risk control)
    recent_vol = np.std(log_returns[t - 20:t])
    if recent_vol > 0.02:
        signal_final *= 0.5

    r_tomorrow = log_returns[t + 1]
    positions.append(signal_final)
    dates.append(data.index[t + 1])
    returns_strategy.append(signal_final * r_tomorrow)
    regime_list.append(np.argmax(reordered_proba))

# 4. Résultats
df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Regime': regime_list
}).set_index('Date')

df['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df['Cumulative_Market'] = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df.index]).cumprod()

# 5. Visualisation
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(14,6))
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Market'], '--', label='Buy & Hold (S&P 500)', color='gray')
ax1.plot(df.index, df['Cumulative_Strategy'], label='HMM Optimisé (4 états)', color='red')
ax1.set_ylabel("Capital cumulé (base 1)")
ax1.grid(True)
ax1.legend(loc='upper left')

ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(data.index, data['MA100'], label='MA100', color='blue', alpha=0.4)
ax2.set_ylabel("MA100")
ax2.legend(loc='upper right')

plt.title("Performance : Buy & Hold vs HMM Optimisé (S&P 500, 4 états, MA100, scaling dynamique)")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# 6. Statistiques
mean = df['Return_Strategy'].mean() * 252
vol = df['Return_Strategy'].std() * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe = mean / vol
drawdown = (df['Cumulative_Strategy'] / df['Cumulative_Strategy'].cummax() - 1).min()

print("📊 Performance HMM Optimisé sur S&P 500 :")
print(f"Rendement annualisé = {mean:.2%}")
print(f"Volatilité annualisée = {vol:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe Ratio = {sharpe:.2f}")
print(f"Max Drawdown = {drawdown:.2%}")

Rolling HMM Optimisé:   0%|                                                                                                                                                        | 0/5287 [00:00<?, ?it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:   0%|                                                                                                                                                | 1/5287 [00:00<13:06,  6.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3135.3051730003385 is not greater than 3135.3924154099973. Delta is -0.08724240965875651
Rolling HMM Optimisé:   1%|█▋                                                                                                                                            | 61/5287 [00:00<00:23, 219.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3133.217903971512 is not greater than 3133.250625283779. Delta is -0.03272131226685815
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:   7%|██████████▍                                                                                                                                  | 391/5287 [00:02<00:39, 122.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3022.3451763608196 is not greater than 3022.351002884109. Delta is -0.005826523289670149
Rolling HMM Optimisé:   8%|███████████▏                                                                                                                                 | 421/5287 [00:03<00:39, 123.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3019.9086180173194 is not greater than 3020.3401806925317. Delta is -0.43156267521226255
Rolling HMM Optimisé:   9%|████████████                                                                                                                                 | 451/5287 [00:03<00:33, 142.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3038.8484952980402 is not greater than 3038.8919163618966. Delta is -0.043421063856385445
Rolling HMM Optimisé:   9%|████████████▊                                                                                                                                | 481/5287 [00:03<00:28, 167.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  10%|██████████████▍                                                                                                                              | 541/5287 [00:03<00:30, 157.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3021.723281293749 is not greater than 3021.7495318170895. Delta is -0.02625052334042266
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  11%|███████████████▏                                                                                                                             | 571/5287 [00:03<00:26, 175.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3080.006239731446 is not greater than 3080.2911680041066. Delta is -0.28492827266063614
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  11%|████████████████                                                                                                                             | 601/5287 [00:04<00:24, 191.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3172.4566273954065 is not greater than 3172.4745534104695. Delta is -0.017926015063039813
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  12%|████████████████▊                                                                                                                            | 631/5287 [00:04<00:29, 159.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3205.571144757543 is not greater than 3205.5985800960007. Delta is -0.027435338457507896
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  14%|███████████████████▏                                                                                                                         | 721/5287 [00:05<00:41, 109.99it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3195.785263043789 is not greater than 3195.802317524485. Delta is -0.01705448069560589
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  15%|████████████████████▊                                                                                                                        | 781/5287 [00:05<00:38, 117.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3274.528652038736 is not greater than 3274.554591811505. Delta is -0.02593977276910664
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  16%|██████████████████████▍                                                                                                                      | 841/5287 [00:06<00:31, 139.95it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  16%|███████████████████████▏                                                                                                                     | 871/5287 [00:06<00:28, 153.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3213.301869979449 is not greater than 3214.08312588465. Delta is -0.7812559052013057
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  18%|████████████████████████▊                                                                                                                    | 931/5287 [00:06<00:27, 159.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3340.233056017505 is not greater than 3340.2646128603214. Delta is -0.0315568428163715
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  19%|██████████████████████████▍                                                                                                                  | 991/5287 [00:06<00:28, 152.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3312.640831744332 is not greater than 3313.1526201147076. Delta is -0.5117883703755979
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  21%|█████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                              | 1111/5287 [00:07<00:23, 180.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3323.257631552363 is not greater than 3323.707641812962. Delta is -0.45001026059890137
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  22%|███████████████████████████████                                                                                                             | 1171/5287 [00:07<00:20, 199.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3485.749731190333 is not greater than 3486.5328333309467. Delta is -0.7831021406136642
Model is not converging.  Current: 3571.011944259551 is not greater than 3571.081687807355. Delta is -0.06974354780413705
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  24%|█████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                          | 1261/5287 [00:08<00:18, 216.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3489.4428971155326 is not greater than 3491.6362249697845. Delta is -2.1933278542519474
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  25%|██████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                         | 1321/5287 [00:08<00:16, 240.89it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  26%|███████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                        | 1351/5287 [00:08<00:16, 245.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3492.081187147619 is not greater than 3492.2788443865297. Delta is -0.1976572389107787
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  26%|████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                       | 1381/5287 [00:08<00:17, 218.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3468.279806069997 is not greater than 3468.967086703025. Delta is -0.6872806330279673
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  27%|██████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                     | 1441/5287 [00:09<00:19, 192.69it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  28%|██████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                     | 1471/5287 [00:09<00:21, 181.05it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  28%|███████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                    | 1501/5287 [00:09<00:20, 180.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3472.8414442914996 is not greater than 3472.9106665089917. Delta is -0.06922221749209712
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  30%|█████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                  | 1561/5287 [00:09<00:21, 172.44it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  31%|██████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                 | 1621/5287 [00:10<00:19, 187.00it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  31%|███████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                | 1651/5287 [00:10<00:20, 175.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  32%|████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                               | 1681/5287 [00:10<00:21, 170.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  32%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                              | 1711/5287 [00:10<00:20, 172.88it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  33%|██████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                              | 1741/5287 [00:10<00:19, 182.00it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  33%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                             | 1771/5287 [00:10<00:17, 196.99it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  34%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                            | 1801/5287 [00:11<00:17, 204.37it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3483.1773824678994 is not greater than 3484.014887556482. Delta is -0.8375050885824749
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  35%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                           | 1831/5287 [00:11<00:17, 200.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3464.4042167600346 is not greater than 3465.1564993389966. Delta is -0.7522825789619674
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  36%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                                                          | 1891/5287 [00:11<00:15, 219.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3466.5583815682735 is not greater than 3467.5091959704555. Delta is -0.9508144021820044
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  37%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                        | 1951/5287 [00:11<00:13, 240.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3415.1858906521215 is not greater than 3415.2256964656567. Delta is -0.039805813535167545
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  37%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                       | 1981/5287 [00:11<00:14, 234.35it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  38%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                      | 2011/5287 [00:11<00:14, 226.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3426.3623837261875 is not greater than 3429.7290219655515. Delta is -3.366638239363965
Model is not converging.  Current: 3414.2675826252585 is not greater than 3414.7315700055683. Delta is -0.4639873803098453
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  39%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                     | 2071/5287 [00:12<00:11, 273.14it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3417.9382233626175 is not greater than 3418.023722566322. Delta is -0.08549920370433028
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  40%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                    | 2101/5287 [00:12<00:12, 245.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3382.7605150280397 is not greater than 3383.18425079531. Delta is -0.4237357672705002
Model is not converging.  Current: 3391.5251064260337 is not greater than 3391.8602948561615. Delta is -0.33518843012780053
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  41%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                  | 2161/5287 [00:12<00:13, 238.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3379.2677544164117 is not greater than 3379.395115073942. Delta is -0.12736065753051662
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  43%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                               | 2281/5287 [00:13<00:12, 236.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3394.102748534707 is not greater than 3395.134746860969. Delta is -1.0319983262616006
Model is not converging.  Current: 3386.8967954271006 is not greater than 3386.9499686569807. Delta is -0.053173229880030703
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  44%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                              | 2341/5287 [00:13<00:14, 205.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3319.1666579522275 is not greater than 3319.232479949247. Delta is -0.06582199701961144
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  45%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                             | 2371/5287 [00:13<00:14, 204.51it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  45%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                            | 2401/5287 [00:13<00:13, 210.02it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3337.526075190574 is not greater than 3337.7689583206775. Delta is -0.24288313010356433
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  46%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                           | 2431/5287 [00:13<00:13, 218.42it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  47%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                          | 2491/5287 [00:14<00:18, 151.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3347.089873507194 is not greater than 3347.1301962968364. Delta is -0.04032278964223224
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  48%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                         | 2521/5287 [00:14<00:16, 168.00it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  48%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                        | 2551/5287 [00:14<00:15, 179.07it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  49%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                       | 2581/5287 [00:14<00:15, 176.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3341.142093953894 is not greater than 3341.21986627104. Delta is -0.07777231714590016
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  49%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                      | 2611/5287 [00:14<00:13, 196.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3322.818857854698 is not greater than 3322.840926026319. Delta is -0.02206817162095831
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  50%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                      | 2641/5287 [00:15<00:14, 187.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3266.8912629723677 is not greater than 3267.0346799377753. Delta is -0.14341696540759585
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  51%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                     | 2671/5287 [00:15<00:14, 180.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3240.7478767728635 is not greater than 3240.7482280534773. Delta is -0.00035128061381328735
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  51%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                    | 2701/5287 [00:15<00:14, 184.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3261.4728171111296 is not greater than 3261.6588175285187. Delta is -0.18600041738909567
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                   | 2731/5287 [00:15<00:13, 190.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3245.935378136858 is not greater than 3246.8123640205526. Delta is -0.8769858836944877
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  53%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                  | 2791/5287 [00:15<00:12, 201.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3204.6843462317524 is not greater than 3204.6942527146375. Delta is -0.009906482885071455
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  53%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                 | 2821/5287 [00:15<00:12, 197.76it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                | 2851/5287 [00:16<00:12, 190.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3197.7394897974445 is not greater than 3197.8389070430044. Delta is -0.09941724555983456
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  54%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                               | 2881/5287 [00:16<00:11, 208.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3181.651978975747 is not greater than 3181.9548107147266. Delta is -0.30283173897942106
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  55%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                               | 2911/5287 [00:16<00:10, 216.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3118.3462144792334 is not greater than 3118.785005660261. Delta is -0.4387911810276819
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                              | 2941/5287 [00:16<00:10, 218.22it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3119.3799460182345 is not greater than 3119.4747946538446. Delta is -0.0948486356101057
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  56%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                             | 2971/5287 [00:16<00:10, 213.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3076.095850846472 is not greater than 3076.3798465293926. Delta is -0.283995682920704
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  57%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                            | 3001/5287 [00:16<00:10, 214.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3045.2137433000235 is not greater than 3045.910175339787. Delta is -0.6964320397637493
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  57%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                           | 3031/5287 [00:16<00:09, 228.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2985.1019670724654 is not greater than 2985.4093456687924. Delta is -0.3073785963269984
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  58%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                           | 3061/5287 [00:17<00:10, 220.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2945.367309635842 is not greater than 2945.3836809919358. Delta is -0.016371356093713985
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                        | 3151/5287 [00:17<00:14, 150.61it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  60%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                       | 3181/5287 [00:17<00:14, 146.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2847.9776273242724 is not greater than 2848.017974909976. Delta is -0.040347585703784716
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  61%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                       | 3211/5287 [00:18<00:13, 157.35it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2802.1087245072454 is not greater than 2802.1815702464783. Delta is -0.07284573923288917
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  61%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                      | 3241/5287 [00:18<00:11, 171.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2797.8715179930723 is not greater than 2797.8719113218954. Delta is -0.00039332882306553074
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  62%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                     | 3271/5287 [00:18<00:11, 174.46it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2802.1871870340137 is not greater than 2802.205243938885. Delta is -0.018056904871173174
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  62%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                    | 3301/5287 [00:18<00:10, 194.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2835.3558570883097 is not greater than 2835.594078993976. Delta is -0.23822190566625068
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  63%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                   | 3331/5287 [00:18<00:10, 181.81it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  64%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                  | 3391/5287 [00:19<00:14, 134.89it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2861.8518123802514 is not greater than 2861.959462544396. Delta is -0.1076501641446157
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  65%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                | 3451/5287 [00:19<00:12, 146.77it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2858.9374926206715 is not greater than 2859.4718651709986. Delta is -0.5343725503271344
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  66%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                               | 3481/5287 [00:19<00:10, 164.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2870.119083244273 is not greater than 2870.137525300132. Delta is -0.018442055858940876
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  67%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                              | 3541/5287 [00:20<00:11, 157.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2860.0198015267633 is not greater than 2860.131220083775. Delta is -0.11141855701180248
Model is not converging.  Current: 2885.4882978162304 is not greater than 2885.489795174181. Delta is -0.0014973579504840018
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  69%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                           | 3631/5287 [00:20<00:11, 147.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  70%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                          | 3691/5287 [00:21<00:08, 185.39it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2932.76355706793 is not greater than 2932.9785943058027. Delta is -0.2150372378728207
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  70%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                         | 3721/5287 [00:21<00:07, 205.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2939.958208076792 is not greater than 2939.979471603137. Delta is -0.021263526345137507
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  71%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                        | 3751/5287 [00:21<00:08, 172.36it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 2950.432272149961 is not greater than 2950.6368300558615. Delta is -0.20455790590040124
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  72%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                       | 3811/5287 [00:21<00:07, 209.18it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3031.3868403224014 is not greater than 3031.4011011806356. Delta is -0.01426085823413814
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  73%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                     | 3871/5287 [00:21<00:06, 203.13it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3023.3381840910065 is not greater than 3024.343473204091. Delta is -1.0052891130844728
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  74%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                    | 3901/5287 [00:21<00:06, 218.10it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3023.20787618907 is not greater than 3023.61998410237. Delta is -0.4121079133001331
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  75%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                   | 3961/5287 [00:22<00:08, 159.38it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3114.0970304192433 is not greater than 3114.3146891020497. Delta is -0.21765868280635914
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  75%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                  | 3991/5287 [00:22<00:07, 181.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3146.0740440869863 is not greater than 3146.316136633504. Delta is -0.24209254651759693
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  77%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                | 4051/5287 [00:22<00:06, 179.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3277.699199905497 is not greater than 3277.739537828296. Delta is -0.040337922798698855
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  77%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                | 4081/5287 [00:23<00:06, 190.03it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Model is not converging.  Current: 3394.1437537769352 is not greater than 3394.1735963574442. Delta is -0.029842580509011896
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  78%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                               | 4111/5287 [00:23<00:06, 190.05it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3335.6677194884423 is not greater than 3335.7695368232175. Delta is -0.10181733477520538
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  78%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                              | 4141/5287 [00:23<00:05, 201.85it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3408.862629365333 is not greater than 3408.893756388796. Delta is -0.031127023463341175
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  79%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                             | 4171/5287 [00:23<00:05, 190.45it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3352.4193315682674 is not greater than 3353.2454203490947. Delta is -0.8260887808273765
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  79%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                            | 4201/5287 [00:23<00:05, 205.81it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3422.048591107449 is not greater than 3422.105942487313. Delta is -0.057351379864030605
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  80%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                            | 4231/5287 [00:23<00:05, 199.41it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3424.2130362885805 is not greater than 3424.2749801690843. Delta is -0.061943880503804394
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  81%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                           | 4261/5287 [00:23<00:04, 212.90it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  81%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                          | 4291/5287 [00:24<00:04, 210.96it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3520.3501787337223 is not greater than 3522.0921621412253. Delta is -1.741983407503085
Model is not converging.  Current: 3501.2202583196 is not greater than 3501.576735868623. Delta is -0.35647754902311135
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  82%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                        | 4351/5287 [00:24<00:03, 244.73it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  83%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                       | 4411/5287 [00:24<00:04, 216.13it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  84%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                      | 4441/5287 [00:24<00:03, 216.37it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  85%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                     | 4471/5287 [00:24<00:04, 197.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3471.2822559806705 is not greater than 3471.458670107492. Delta is -0.17641412682132795
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  85%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                    | 4501/5287 [00:24<00:03, 204.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3437.2650554325814 is not greater than 3437.588566379822. Delta is -0.32351094724072027
Model is not converging.  Current: 3412.3773930849266 is not greater than 3413.1220353018634. Delta is -0.7446422169368816
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  86%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                   | 4561/5287 [00:25<00:02, 242.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3366.321618974891 is not greater than 3366.371421316026. Delta is -0.04980234113509141
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  87%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                  | 4591/5287 [00:25<00:03, 228.10it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  88%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                | 4651/5287 [00:25<00:02, 224.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  90%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌              | 4741/5287 [00:26<00:03, 180.41it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  90%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎             | 4771/5287 [00:26<00:02, 182.01it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3186.976787675874 is not greater than 3187.377192356734. Delta is -0.40040468085999237
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  91%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉            | 4831/5287 [00:26<00:02, 196.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3160.007136273534 is not greater than 3160.085147821267. Delta is -0.07801154773324015
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  92%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋           | 4861/5287 [00:26<00:02, 198.98it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  93%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌          | 4891/5287 [00:26<00:01, 209.68it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  93%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎         | 4921/5287 [00:27<00:01, 184.48it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3097.9160565000216 is not greater than 3098.021508504799. Delta is -0.10545200477736216
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  94%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████         | 4951/5287 [00:27<00:01, 180.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3017.203383641895 is not greater than 3017.2203050693956. Delta is -0.016921427500619757
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  94%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉        | 4981/5287 [00:27<00:01, 193.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3068.9784737774125 is not greater than 3069.0401850735666. Delta is -0.06171129615404425
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  95%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋       | 5011/5287 [00:27<00:01, 204.04it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  96%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎     | 5071/5287 [00:27<00:01, 187.02it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  96%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████     | 5101/5287 [00:28<00:01, 163.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 3003.258268942222 is not greater than 3003.825593327776. Delta is -0.5673243855540022
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  98%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍  | 5191/5287 [00:28<00:00, 178.47it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling HMM Optimisé:  99%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ | 5251/5287 [00:28<00:00, 156.40it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Rolling HMM Optimisé: 100%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████| 5287/5287 [00:29<00:00, 180.86it/s]

📊 Performance HMM Optimisé sur S&P 500 :
Rendement annualisé = -6.23%
Volatilité annualisée = 12.19%
Sharpe Ratio = -0.51
Max Drawdown = -12.25%

SVHMM volatility forecast

import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM
from tqdm import tqdm
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

# --- Step 0: reproducible jitter
rng = np.random.default_rng(42)
jitter_scale = 1e-8

# --- Step 1: Download data, compute returns & shifted MA100
data = yf.download('AAPL', start='2004-01-01', end='2025-01-01')
data['Log_Returns'] = np.log(data['Close'] / data['Close'].shift(1))
data['MA100']       = data['Close'].shift(1).rolling(100).mean()
data.dropna(inplace=True)

log_returns = data['Log_Returns'].values

# --- Step 2: Parameters
window           = 300
refit_every      = 10
transaction_cost = 0.001   # 0.1% round‑trip cost

# Storage
positions        = []
dates            = []
returns_strategy = []
regimes_rolling  = []

# State carried between refits
current_signal   = 0.0
current_regime   = 1
current_sigma    = 0.0

# --- Step 3: Rolling window, daily P&L
for t in tqdm(range(window, len(data) - 1), desc="Rolling SV‑HMM"):
    # only refit every refit_every days
    if (t - window) % refit_every == 0:
        window_ret = log_returns[t-window:t].reshape(-1,1)
        if np.var(window_ret) < 1e-8:
            # too little variance, skip
            pass
        else:
            try:
                # add tiny noise to avoid degenerate covariances
                wr = window_ret + rng.normal(0, jitter_scale, window_ret.shape)

                # fit HMM
                model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full', n_iter=300)
                model.fit(wr)

                # posterior probs
                proba      = model.predict_proba(wr)
                last_proba = proba[-1]

                # reorder by vol
                vols       = [np.trace(cov) for cov in model.covars_]
                order      = np.argsort(vols)
                p_reord    = np.array([ last_proba[i] for i in order ])

                # AR(1) on log‐sq‐returns to forecast sigma per state
                lr2 = np.log(wr.flatten()**2 + 1e-8)
                sigma_states = np.zeros(3)
                for i in range(3):
                    idx = np.where(proba[:,i] > 0.5)[0]
                    if len(idx) >= 5:
                        y  = lr2[idx]
                        x  = y[:-1]; y1 = y[1:]
                        ar = LinearRegression().fit(x.reshape(-1,1), y1)
                        phi = ar.coef_[0]
                        if abs(phi) < 1:
                            mu = ar.intercept_/(1-phi)
                            h  = mu + phi*(y1[-1] - mu)
                            sigma_states[i] = np.exp(h/2)
                        else:
                            sigma_states[i] = np.nan
                    else:
                        sigma_states[i] = np.nan

                valid = ~np.isnan(sigma_states)
                if valid.any():
                    current_sigma = (p_reord[valid]*sigma_states[valid]).sum() / p_reord[valid].sum()

                # trend filter via shifted MA100
                price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
                ma100 = float(data['MA100'].iloc[t])
                if price > ma100:
                    lw, sw = 2.0, -0.25
                else:
                    lw, sw = 0.75, -1.0

                # build signal
                hmm_sig        = p_reord[0]*lw + p_reord[2]*sw
                current_signal = 0.5*hmm_sig if current_sigma > 0.03 else hmm_sig
                current_regime = int(np.argmax(p_reord))

            except Exception as e:
                print(f"[t={t} {data.index[t].date()}] HMM fit failed: {e}")
                # keep prior current_signal/regime/sigma

    # apply daily P&L
    r_next = log_returns[t+1]
    cost   = transaction_cost * abs(current_signal - (positions[-1] if positions else 0.0))
    pnl    = current_signal * r_next - cost

    positions.append(current_signal)
    returns_strategy.append(pnl)
    regimes_rolling.append(current_regime)
    dates.append(data.index[t+1])

# --- Step 4: Build results
df_hmm = pd.DataFrame({
    'Date': dates,
    'Position': positions,
    'Return_Strategy': returns_strategy,
    'Regime': regimes_rolling
}).set_index('Date')

df_hmm['Cumulative_Strategy'] = (1 + df_hmm['Return_Strategy']).cumprod()
df_hmm['Cumulative_Market']   = (1 + data['Log_Returns'].loc[df_hmm.index]).cumprod()

# --- Step 5: Metrics
daily    = df_hmm['Return_Strategy']
mean_ann = daily.mean() * 252
vol_ann  = daily.std()  * np.sqrt(252)
sharpe   = mean_ann / vol_ann

print("SV‑HMM Approx. with daily P&L & costs")
print(f"Annual Return    = {mean_ann:.2%}")
print(f"Annual Volatility= {vol_ann:.2%}")
print(f"Sharpe Ratio     = {sharpe:.2f}")
print(f"Last σ forecast  = {current_sigma:.4f}")

# --- Step 6: Plot
plt.figure(figsize=(12,6))
plt.plot(df_hmm.index, df_hmm['Cumulative_Market'],   '--', label='Buy & Hold')
plt.plot(df_hmm.index, df_hmm['Cumulative_Strategy'],  label='SV‑HMM Strat')
plt.legend(); plt.title("SV‑HMM Strategy vs. Buy & Hold")
plt.grid(True); plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed
Rolling SV‑HMM:   0%|                                                                                                                                                              | 0/4884 [00:00<?, ?it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 689.6162610704761 is not greater than 689.6281737314922. Delta is -0.011912661016140191
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 684.5814409229816 is not greater than 684.5970502237803. Delta is -0.015609300798701042
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   0%|▋                                                                                                                                                   | 21/4884 [00:00<00:23, 206.54it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   1%|█▌                                                                                                                                                  | 51/4884 [00:00<00:18, 259.63it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 691.1172462716135 is not greater than 691.2988963898692. Delta is -0.18165011825578858
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   2%|██▍                                                                                                                                                 | 81/4884 [00:00<00:18, 264.77it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 685.3152173357503 is not greater than 685.3526419216462. Delta is -0.03742458589590569
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   2%|███▋                                                                                                                                               | 121/4884 [00:00<00:15, 299.17it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 688.4468902818154 is not greater than 688.4532627870863. Delta is -0.006372505270860529
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 684.9621206730676 is not greater than 685.0591419149392. Delta is -0.09702124187163008
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   3%|████▌                                                                                                                                              | 151/4884 [00:00<00:19, 247.29it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 689.6501838812676 is not greater than 689.721430656972. Delta is -0.07124677570436688
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   4%|█████▍                                                                                                                                             | 181/4884 [00:00<00:18, 255.61it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 684.7783647716502 is not greater than 684.779194676291. Delta is -0.0008299046407955757
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 686.3203193098188 is not greater than 686.3403905512619. Delta is -0.02007124144301997
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   5%|██████▋                                                                                                                                            | 221/4884 [00:00<00:17, 272.15it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 689.2484537815369 is not greater than 689.2562310699273. Delta is -0.007777288390343529
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   5%|███████▍                                                                                                                                           | 249/4884 [00:00<00:17, 265.08it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 690.8657904514822 is not greater than 690.8781860686281. Delta is -0.012395617145898541
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   6%|████████▎                                                                                                                                          | 276/4884 [00:01<00:18, 247.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 693.6393340645808 is not greater than 693.6402340826156. Delta is -0.000900018034826644
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 697.2074344900274 is not greater than 697.2249776138724. Delta is -0.017543123845030095
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   6%|█████████▎                                                                                                                                         | 311/4884 [00:01<00:17, 262.07it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 698.8176686848516 is not greater than 698.8196677097228. Delta is -0.0019990248712247194
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   7%|██████████▎                                                                                                                                        | 341/4884 [00:01<00:17, 262.78it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 705.8635927380074 is not greater than 705.8801665984661. Delta is -0.016573860458720446
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   8%|███████████▏                                                                                                                                       | 371/4884 [00:01<00:17, 252.90it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 712.8682681640265 is not greater than 712.8937963246274. Delta is -0.02552816060085661
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   8%|████████████▎                                                                                                                                      | 411/4884 [00:01<00:17, 261.06it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 727.5995051573293 is not greater than 727.6213501339755. Delta is -0.021844976646207215
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:   9%|█████████████▎                                                                                                                                     | 441/4884 [00:01<00:16, 264.56it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  10%|██████████████                                                                                                                                     | 468/4884 [00:01<00:18, 239.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 747.7284344513375 is not greater than 747.7338953335784. Delta is -0.005460882240868159
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 750.6189975861141 is not greater than 750.6254088701608. Delta is -0.006411284046635046
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  10%|██████████████▊                                                                                                                                    | 493/4884 [00:01<00:19, 226.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 739.3154652627231 is not greater than 739.4400495614824. Delta is -0.12458429875925958
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 735.17581836335 is not greater than 735.1767635533566. Delta is -0.0009451900066324015
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  11%|███████████████▋                                                                                                                                   | 521/4884 [00:02<00:18, 237.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 725.7014755502616 is not greater than 725.7584229262811. Delta is -0.056947376019479634
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  11%|████████████████▌                                                                                                                                  | 551/4884 [00:02<00:18, 229.74it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 738.776223986374 is not greater than 738.7912534396961. Delta is -0.015029453322085828
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 730.6041893548363 is not greater than 730.6362238300128. Delta is -0.03203447517648783
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  12%|█████████████████▍                                                                                                                                 | 581/4884 [00:02<00:20, 212.18it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  13%|██████████████████▍                                                                                                                                | 611/4884 [00:02<00:20, 203.88it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  13%|███████████████████                                                                                                                                | 632/4884 [00:02<00:22, 190.52it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  13%|███████████████████▌                                                                                                                               | 652/4884 [00:02<00:22, 186.58it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  14%|████████████████████▏                                                                                                                              | 671/4884 [00:02<00:24, 175.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 688.7664042471275 is not greater than 688.7818470777229. Delta is -0.015442830595361556
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 686.0248879684365 is not greater than 686.1862075334926. Delta is -0.16131956505614653
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  15%|█████████████████████▍                                                                                                                             | 711/4884 [00:03<00:18, 221.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 678.6033361635868 is not greater than 678.6133326804153. Delta is -0.009996516828437052
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  15%|██████████████████████                                                                                                                             | 734/4884 [00:03<00:19, 214.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 670.8164329352734 is not greater than 670.9106838680974. Delta is -0.09425093282402486
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  16%|██████████████████████▉                                                                                                                            | 761/4884 [00:03<00:20, 205.76it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 651.8653005678341 is not greater than 651.8714171584867. Delta is -0.0061165906525957325
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  16%|████████████████████████                                                                                                                           | 801/4884 [00:03<00:18, 218.32it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 635.1188943761646 is not greater than 635.1674038078644. Delta is -0.04850943169981292
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  17%|█████████████████████████                                                                                                                          | 831/4884 [00:03<00:17, 229.20it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  18%|█████████████████████████▉                                                                                                                         | 861/4884 [00:03<00:17, 230.36it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  18%|██████████████████████████▊                                                                                                                        | 891/4884 [00:03<00:18, 220.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 601.8929656362965 is not greater than 601.9017868902285. Delta is -0.00882125393206934
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 604.7310895702 is not greater than 604.7406573844263. Delta is -0.009567814226329574
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  19%|███████████████████████████▋                                                                                                                       | 921/4884 [00:03<00:17, 226.22it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  19%|████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                                      | 951/4884 [00:04<00:17, 226.36it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  20%|█████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                                     | 974/4884 [00:04<00:18, 206.89it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  20%|█████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                                    | 1001/4884 [00:04<00:18, 206.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 629.717721838401 is not greater than 629.7227451997828. Delta is -0.005023361381859104
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  21%|██████████████████████████████▊                                                                                                                   | 1031/4884 [00:04<00:16, 228.30it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 647.3919884361624 is not greater than 647.415912059397. Delta is -0.023923623234622937
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  22%|███████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                                  | 1061/4884 [00:04<00:17, 224.33it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 662.5962633474908 is not greater than 662.596575694851. Delta is -0.0003123473602499871
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  22%|████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                                 | 1091/4884 [00:04<00:16, 233.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 680.5844971923027 is not greater than 680.5939548484537. Delta is -0.009457656150971161
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  23%|█████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                                                | 1121/4884 [00:04<00:15, 239.47it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 735.8844385423139 is not greater than 735.9552068069091. Delta is -0.07076826459524455
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 741.231259941577 is not greater than 741.4558842233378. Delta is -0.22462428176072535
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  24%|██████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                                               | 1161/4884 [00:04<00:13, 276.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 749.9511984732493 is not greater than 749.9597576620924. Delta is -0.008559188843150878
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 765.0354391593042 is not greater than 765.094360743628. Delta is -0.058921584323798015
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 765.5637065827297 is not greater than 765.5773517464693. Delta is -0.013645163739624877
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  25%|███████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                              | 1201/4884 [00:05<00:12, 292.63it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:386: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in true_divide
  self._covars_ = ((covars_prior + c_n) /
Model is not converging.  Current: 781.0799336707149 is not greater than 781.4230409029456. Delta is -0.3431072322306363
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 783.1399466243798 is not greater than 783.2745628306761. Delta is -0.13461620629630033
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 779.4095199760723 is not greater than 779.4208604641159. Delta is -0.011340488043629193
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  25%|█████████████████████████████████████                                                                                                             | 1241/4884 [00:05<00:11, 309.62it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 788.1622283475394 is not greater than 788.3065115989076. Delta is -0.1442832513681651
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 792.8568061621987 is not greater than 792.9528345147932. Delta is -0.09602835259443054
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=1510 2010-05-26] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  26%|██████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                           | 1281/4884 [00:05<00:11, 311.40it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 793.4202796602427 is not greater than 793.4548513693896. Delta is -0.034571709146916874
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 798.5478028097981 is not greater than 798.6812057858722. Delta is -0.13340297607408047
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  27%|███████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                          | 1321/4884 [00:05<00:11, 320.70it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 794.0428549279849 is not greater than 794.0647794808788. Delta is -0.021924552893892724
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 800.4124854032534 is not greater than 800.6082460004749. Delta is -0.1957605972214651
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 804.8502693139076 is not greater than 805.0023095839036. Delta is -0.15204026999606413
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 816.9639875553269 is not greater than 817.6442040450243. Delta is -0.6802164896973864
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  28%|████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                                         | 1371/4884 [00:05<00:10, 344.78it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 814.7095939215758 is not greater than 814.8505574138202. Delta is -0.14096349224439564
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 821.9512316204551 is not greater than 822.2429293632297. Delta is -0.2916977427745451
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  29%|██████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                                       | 1411/4884 [00:05<00:10, 333.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 818.0322806174115 is not greater than 818.1265870116545. Delta is -0.09430639424294895
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 830.0008865417816 is not greater than 830.3562043056288. Delta is -0.3553177638472107
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=1680 2011-01-27] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 831.8632140909639 is not greater than 831.9988385354193. Delta is -0.13562444445540223
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  30%|███████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                      | 1451/4884 [00:05<00:10, 334.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 834.5982171462249 is not greater than 834.6399315782643. Delta is -0.04171443203938452
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 830.8213157051132 is not greater than 830.8262326885457. Delta is -0.004916983432508459
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 828.6556776504955 is not greater than 828.7241827400568. Delta is -0.06850508956131307
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  30%|████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                     | 1485/4884 [00:05<00:10, 334.72it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  31%|█████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                    | 1519/4884 [00:06<00:10, 331.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 838.4349143797145 is not greater than 838.4393297089532. Delta is -0.004415329238668164
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 838.0398222142715 is not greater than 838.0642841386339. Delta is -0.0244619243624129
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 844.5903183170077 is not greater than 844.622372175631. Delta is -0.03205385862327148
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  32%|██████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                   | 1553/4884 [00:06<00:10, 308.45it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=1800 2011-07-20] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 826.1573368115875 is not greater than 826.168584721405. Delta is -0.01124790981748447
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  32%|███████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                  | 1585/4884 [00:06<00:10, 304.11it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 820.4746168238058 is not greater than 820.5231386088043. Delta is -0.048521784998456496
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 820.4679448119795 is not greater than 820.4730441733267. Delta is -0.0050993613472201105
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 822.0163610362016 is not greater than 822.0508864372707. Delta is -0.034525401069117834
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  33%|████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                                 | 1621/4884 [00:06<00:11, 295.73it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 821.6446609725452 is not greater than 821.6561200444498. Delta is -0.011459071904596385
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 827.0387311269358 is not greater than 827.187556736284. Delta is -0.1488256093482505
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  34%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                                | 1651/4884 [00:06<00:11, 288.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 813.1561466588771 is not greater than 813.4312230775097. Delta is -0.2750764186325796
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 804.4151561678125 is not greater than 804.5734030013317. Delta is -0.15824683351922886
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 813.163270007649 is not greater than 813.3562747262488. Delta is -0.19300471859980917
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 797.9256557399616 is not greater than 797.9398832719357. Delta is -0.014227531974142948
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  35%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                               | 1691/4884 [00:06<00:10, 301.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 797.4864067979832 is not greater than 797.5684008081203. Delta is -0.08199401013700935
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 789.6406839156576 is not greater than 789.6788922920881. Delta is -0.038208376430475255
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.0242394392374 is not greater than 794.0590203131667. Delta is -0.03478087392932139
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  35%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                              | 1731/4884 [00:06<00:10, 300.66it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 794.4602361210596 is not greater than 794.6674807440475. Delta is -0.20724462298790058
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 783.15242527418 is not greater than 783.1641988260598. Delta is -0.011773551879741717
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 791.3798087666357 is not greater than 791.3807826151907. Delta is -0.0009738485549632969
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  36%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                                                             | 1771/4884 [00:06<00:09, 319.17it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 796.1385554003482 is not greater than 796.431047934297. Delta is -0.2924925339488027
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.4477658837022 is not greater than 794.4914420573551. Delta is -0.04367617365289789
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 788.432813641648 is not greater than 788.4346634056986. Delta is -0.001849764050689373
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  37%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                           | 1811/4884 [00:06<00:09, 312.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 797.5798492012158 is not greater than 797.5915761902048. Delta is -0.011726988989039455
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.1748631682241 is not greater than 794.2113134052565. Delta is -0.036450237032454424
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.5762620102457 is not greater than 794.6929130028852. Delta is -0.11665099263950651
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=2080 2012-08-28] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 786.846801564968 is not greater than 786.8516947238192. Delta is -0.004893158851132284
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  38%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                          | 1851/4884 [00:07<00:09, 313.86it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 786.6788681062607 is not greater than 786.7132020652431. Delta is -0.034333958982415425
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  39%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                                         | 1883/4884 [00:07<00:09, 306.71it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 778.7968073683211 is not greater than 778.8041624686173. Delta is -0.007355100296194905
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 777.7542793495567 is not greater than 777.7975240548899. Delta is -0.043244705333222555
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 775.3470641268419 is not greater than 775.365250787688. Delta is -0.018186660846026825
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  39%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                        | 1914/4884 [00:07<00:09, 302.17it/s]

[t=2160 2012-12-24] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 772.4298731227855 is not greater than 772.459587167448. Delta is -0.029714044662568995
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 772.7970455285748 is not greater than 772.8195822802945. Delta is -0.02253675171971281
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  40%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                       | 1945/4884 [00:07<00:10, 288.16it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 766.8716041446935 is not greater than 766.8958686230447. Delta is -0.024264478351256002
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 769.498364084119 is not greater than 769.524696248061. Delta is -0.02633216394201554
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  41%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                      | 1981/4884 [00:07<00:10, 274.55it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 776.3173513235822 is not greater than 776.3382343665611. Delta is -0.02088304297888044
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 783.6345004338053 is not greater than 783.684577301972. Delta is -0.05007686816668411
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 784.4328512618363 is not greater than 784.4403002903593. Delta is -0.007449028523069501
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 786.6139352520132 is not greater than 786.6172060286882. Delta is -0.0032707766749808798
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  41%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                                     | 2021/4884 [00:07<00:09, 287.47it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 784.3298003679445 is not greater than 784.3443168181841. Delta is -0.014516450239625556
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 777.6895699875272 is not greater than 777.7069950171503. Delta is -0.017425029623154842
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  42%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                                    | 2061/4884 [00:07<00:09, 298.17it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 777.967217625511 is not greater than 778.125550915445. Delta is -0.15833328993403484
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 779.7777401921352 is not greater than 779.8065904121278. Delta is -0.02885021999259152
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  43%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                                                   | 2101/4884 [00:07<00:09, 299.03it/s]

[t=2340 2013-09-12] HMM fit failed: transmat_ rows must sum to 1 (got row sums of [0. 1. 1.])

Model is not converging.  Current: 779.3292414307351 is not greater than 779.3602012388255. Delta is -0.03095980809041521
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 787.7485830177479 is not greater than 787.8589903330341. Delta is -0.11040731528612469
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 793.6253955593352 is not greater than 793.6311527156178. Delta is -0.005757156282584219
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  44%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                                  | 2131/4884 [00:08<00:09, 297.27it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 795.4220918114613 is not greater than 795.4641421919099. Delta is -0.04205038044858611
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 808.4430464659125 is not greater than 808.4475708799887. Delta is -0.004524414076172434
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 833.9104488579815 is not greater than 833.9140081414635. Delta is -0.0035592834819908603
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  45%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                                                | 2181/4884 [00:08<00:08, 318.53it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 836.2212172649246 is not greater than 836.3108307221011. Delta is -0.08961345717648328
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 836.2721595281255 is not greater than 836.3406934841512. Delta is -0.06853395602570345
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 845.2662652432222 is not greater than 845.2995546887846. Delta is -0.03328944556244551
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 848.5265803006736 is not greater than 848.5695448082151. Delta is -0.04296450754156922
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  45%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                               | 2221/4884 [00:08<00:08, 322.90it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 845.8042166226564 is not greater than 845.9449249468468. Delta is -0.14070832419031376
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  46%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                              | 2261/4884 [00:08<00:07, 330.20it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 876.0998473592093 is not greater than 876.2652039190336. Delta is -0.16535655982431763
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 867.9858292698133 is not greater than 868.068039632273. Delta is -0.08221036245970481
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 882.6825638803706 is not greater than 882.8385935971866. Delta is -0.156029716815965
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  47%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                             | 2294/4884 [00:08<00:07, 329.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 882.7628206669881 is not greater than 882.8998396978476. Delta is -0.13701903085950562
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 885.2709572964939 is not greater than 885.492026853352. Delta is -0.22106955685808316
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  48%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                            | 2331/4884 [00:08<00:07, 326.15it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 885.3668356042502 is not greater than 885.4666465884019. Delta is -0.09981098415164524
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 901.5184373634625 is not greater than 901.585547452292. Delta is -0.06711008882950864
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 897.7102289404419 is not greater than 897.7306167136315. Delta is -0.020387773189668223
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  48%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                           | 2364/4884 [00:08<00:07, 325.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 883.8797089608146 is not greater than 883.9715173701923. Delta is -0.09180840937767698

[t=2610 2014-10-08] HMM fit failed: transmat_ rows must sum to 1 (got row sums of [1. 1. 0.])

/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 883.6016786915299 is not greater than 883.7061792520834. Delta is -0.10450056055356072
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 869.2141409665937 is not greater than 869.253065552405. Delta is -0.038924585811287216
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  49%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                          | 2397/4884 [00:08<00:07, 323.50it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 872.7916653021877 is not greater than 872.8001912513118. Delta is -0.008525949124191357
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 870.4069015655043 is not greater than 870.6427587514603. Delta is -0.23585718595597882
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 871.4960284631992 is not greater than 871.8656306191162. Delta is -0.36960215591705037
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  50%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                         | 2430/4884 [00:08<00:07, 324.72it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 870.7737150207222 is not greater than 870.9472180522207. Delta is -0.17350303149851243
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 877.1050965226823 is not greater than 877.1177405554602. Delta is -0.012644032777870962
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 870.0941110318504 is not greater than 870.0983256139625. Delta is -0.0042145821121266636
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  50%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                        | 2463/4884 [00:09<00:07, 310.04it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 865.880311114738 is not greater than 865.9420349861929. Delta is -0.06172387145488756
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 867.2740511446685 is not greater than 867.5683988440854. Delta is -0.2943476994169032
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 869.322004937029 is not greater than 869.3668964285647. Delta is -0.04489149153573635
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  51%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                       | 2495/4884 [00:09<00:07, 309.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 866.7013322409289 is not greater than 866.9838800801168. Delta is -0.28254783918794146
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  52%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                      | 2527/4884 [00:09<00:07, 309.83it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 829.7830249312156 is not greater than 829.9033233908259. Delta is -0.12029845961035335
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  52%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                     | 2559/4884 [00:09<00:07, 311.71it/s]

[t=2800 2015-07-13] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs
[t=2820 2015-08-10] HMM fit failed: transmat_ rows must sum to 1 (got row sums of [1. 1. 0.])

/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 810.2596988631215 is not greater than 810.307744591577. Delta is -0.048045728455576864
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 818.1334887626416 is not greater than 818.2462973723436. Delta is -0.11280860970202866
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  53%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                    | 2591/4884 [00:09<00:08, 268.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 812.9816411995457 is not greater than 812.9960573403843. Delta is -0.014416140838534375
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 815.8137891594262 is not greater than 815.9744633448299. Delta is -0.16067418540376366
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 813.0829541899806 is not greater than 813.0846738993012. Delta is -0.0017197093205822966
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  54%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                                                   | 2621/4884 [00:09<00:08, 270.98it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 803.8425580792107 is not greater than 803.845840198756. Delta is -0.003282119545360729
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=2870 2015-10-20] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 792.3423897398296 is not greater than 792.3488824632634. Delta is -0.0064927234337801565
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 795.0227785712522 is not greater than 795.1882096295093. Delta is -0.165431058257127
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.8327569019532 is not greater than 794.8373690266723. Delta is -0.004612124719074018
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  54%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                                                  | 2661/4884 [00:09<00:07, 282.08it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 790.3724585743329 is not greater than 790.3962786480332. Delta is -0.023820073700335342
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 808.9385655947117 is not greater than 808.9553257322224. Delta is -0.016760137510686945
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  55%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                                 | 2691/4884 [00:09<00:07, 279.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 790.7438143175923 is not greater than 790.757783906024. Delta is -0.013969588431677948
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 804.2056279543041 is not greater than 804.4927755381922. Delta is -0.2871475838880997
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 808.5746007321837 is not greater than 808.5967525968204. Delta is -0.022151864636612117
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  56%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                                | 2731/4884 [00:10<00:07, 297.30it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 806.219851410302 is not greater than 806.3604310674808. Delta is -0.1405796571788187
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 808.3787430411924 is not greater than 808.5315291449853. Delta is -0.15278610379289148
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 806.1872814201344 is not greater than 806.2452210231286. Delta is -0.057939602994224515
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 809.1377241165673 is not greater than 809.1933566765713. Delta is -0.055632560004028164
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  57%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                               | 2771/4884 [00:10<00:06, 315.95it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 807.2661428835704 is not greater than 807.304776058995. Delta is -0.03863317542459299
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 801.356971527281 is not greater than 801.4481271365362. Delta is -0.09115560925522459
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 808.4024616577059 is not greater than 808.5451999267791. Delta is -0.14273826907322018
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  58%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                              | 2811/4884 [00:10<00:06, 322.43it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 811.8959309868585 is not greater than 811.9793339405413. Delta is -0.08340295368282113
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 822.599169318617 is not greater than 822.61903386346. Delta is -0.01986454484301703
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  58%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                             | 2844/4884 [00:10<00:06, 321.54it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.

[t=3090 2016-09-02] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs
[t=3150 2016-11-29] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 836.4570428272501 is not greater than 836.4674351979836. Delta is -0.010392370733484313
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 844.6868301533577 is not greater than 844.7065443924455. Delta is -0.019714239087761598
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  59%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                            | 2877/4884 [00:10<00:06, 315.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 856.420110224748 is not greater than 856.7081600466666. Delta is -0.288049821918662
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 862.938367134073 is not greater than 863.0494126934618. Delta is -0.11104555938879912
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 862.2120407326365 is not greater than 862.2509627988087. Delta is -0.03892206617217653
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  60%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                           | 2909/4884 [00:10<00:06, 306.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 872.4045608294763 is not greater than 872.7349805262292. Delta is -0.33041969675286964
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 867.6525368890186 is not greater than 867.6567492979024. Delta is -0.004212408883745411
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 894.107041572647 is not greater than 894.1692609749723. Delta is -0.06221940232535417
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  60%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                          | 2940/4884 [00:10<00:06, 303.07it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 911.1013567089277 is not greater than 911.2022202892238. Delta is -0.1008635802960498
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 907.2988554980774 is not greater than 907.3371008811934. Delta is -0.038245383115963705
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 924.2109871988092 is not greater than 924.634017981212. Delta is -0.4230307824027477
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  61%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                                                         | 2971/4884 [00:10<00:06, 281.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 929.5182475792883 is not greater than 930.3225673837908. Delta is -0.8043198045024837
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 923.123079243564 is not greater than 923.3269204684179. Delta is -0.20384122485393164
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 921.2372154829133 is not greater than 921.6815059852495. Delta is -0.44429050233623
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  62%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                                        | 3011/4884 [00:10<00:06, 307.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 921.6982138540641 is not greater than 921.7087325076525. Delta is -0.010518653588405869
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 930.4420347467144 is not greater than 930.6130749363144. Delta is -0.17104018960003486
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 929.3802635172066 is not greater than 929.3991101847392. Delta is -0.018846667532670835
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 919.7549748119401 is not greater than 919.9260095915737. Delta is -0.17103477963360092
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  62%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                                      | 3051/4884 [00:11<00:05, 315.23it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 931.398169875016 is not greater than 931.7290787300093. Delta is -0.33090885499325395
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 945.4579340986148 is not greater than 946.942789700553. Delta is -1.484855601938193
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 941.4104094934788 is not greater than 942.1063777456059. Delta is -0.6959682521270452
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 927.3856651602916 is not greater than 927.4359129366595. Delta is -0.05024777636788258
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  63%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                     | 3091/4884 [00:11<00:05, 328.28it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 943.0146767743711 is not greater than 943.2018557346363. Delta is -0.1871789602652143
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 942.7041257657972 is not greater than 943.0484897000109. Delta is -0.34436393421367484
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 941.6907770540643 is not greater than 941.8219550526591. Delta is -0.13117799859480783
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  64%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                    | 3124/4884 [00:11<00:05, 326.92it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 935.96427640562 is not greater than 935.9784679886234. Delta is -0.014191583003366759
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 945.6586249992615 is not greater than 946.0968303718548. Delta is -0.43820537259330195
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 916.5222709368145 is not greater than 916.8236822141076. Delta is -0.3014112772931412
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 903.4042677830536 is not greater than 903.6133486637201. Delta is -0.20908088066653363
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  65%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                                   | 3161/4884 [00:11<00:05, 318.60it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 918.7528593183138 is not greater than 918.7596843171967. Delta is -0.006824998882962063
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 911.6316111861909 is not greater than 911.8432718989202. Delta is -0.2116607127293264
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 877.9388817878847 is not greater than 877.9744927553357. Delta is -0.03561096745102077
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 893.7331620069097 is not greater than 893.8148243087185. Delta is -0.08166230180881939
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  66%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                                  | 3201/4884 [00:11<00:05, 327.59it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 870.1633514672928 is not greater than 870.3288467418066. Delta is -0.16549527451377344
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 879.1261950165463 is not greater than 879.5617232792505. Delta is -0.4355282627042243
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 880.2695303849091 is not greater than 880.3785993839043. Delta is -0.1090689989952125
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  66%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                 | 3241/4884 [00:11<00:04, 344.59it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 876.5675998291978 is not greater than 876.8000612140286. Delta is -0.23246138483079903
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 876.9205611088943 is not greater than 877.1756341378367. Delta is -0.25507302894243367
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 883.2932255466451 is not greater than 883.3695992432923. Delta is -0.07637369664723792
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  67%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                                | 3276/4884 [00:11<00:04, 342.82it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 875.8741155873118 is not greater than 876.0328798378517. Delta is -0.15876425053988896
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 888.7768015150185 is not greater than 889.1560773640183. Delta is -0.3792758489997823
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 885.1378547699793 is not greater than 886.0846802224421. Delta is -0.9468254524628037
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 876.2344429233832 is not greater than 876.3310986303952. Delta is -0.09665570701201887
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  68%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                                               | 3311/4884 [00:11<00:04, 321.48it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 857.2829107311013 is not greater than 857.5293383923911. Delta is -0.246427661289772
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 855.0493660421142 is not greater than 855.553310195858. Delta is -0.5039441537437597
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Rolling SV‑HMM:  69%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                             | 3351/4884 [00:11<00:04, 315.81it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=3620 2018-10-11] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs
[t=3650 2018-11-23] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs
[t=3670 2018-12-24] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  69%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                            | 3391/4884 [00:12<00:04, 312.58it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 781.7664106117988 is not greater than 781.9101266296116. Delta is -0.14371601781272147
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  70%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                           | 3423/4884 [00:12<00:04, 297.00it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 792.9715152670934 is not greater than 793.10836616228. Delta is -0.13685089518662608
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  71%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                                          | 3453/4884 [00:12<00:05, 277.12it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 801.3185963376145 is not greater than 801.3258599943852. Delta is -0.007263656770646776
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 803.5503929406927 is not greater than 803.6828542626515. Delta is -0.1324613219587718
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 794.5069799390585 is not greater than 794.5974002560768. Delta is -0.09042031701824271
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  71%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████                                          | 3481/4884 [00:12<00:06, 233.65it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 793.6872112573773 is not greater than 793.7005007457623. Delta is -0.013289488384998549
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 802.686829009445 is not greater than 802.8602134903753. Delta is -0.17338448093028092
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 804.9641749116741 is not greater than 804.9699790251935. Delta is -0.00580411351938892
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  72%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                                        | 3521/4884 [00:12<00:05, 265.34it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 790.9256656900649 is not greater than 790.98041471234. Delta is -0.05474902227513212
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 777.1124862628144 is not greater than 777.1645679034493. Delta is -0.05208164063492404
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 786.1077427155427 is not greater than 786.5929862546197. Delta is -0.48524353907703244
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 779.3069145600961 is not greater than 779.3678867780412. Delta is -0.06097221794516372
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  73%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                       | 3561/4884 [00:12<00:04, 282.54it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 788.3056108007385 is not greater than 788.3113350935658. Delta is -0.00572429282738085
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 773.7011274264665 is not greater than 773.7790786109024. Delta is -0.0779511844358467
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 772.9811840682504 is not greater than 772.9881965919147. Delta is -0.007012523664343462
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  74%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                      | 3601/4884 [00:12<00:04, 293.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 782.4995705007395 is not greater than 782.5757770429218. Delta is -0.07620654218226264
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 788.5553323290088 is not greater than 788.6722482890315. Delta is -0.11691596002265214
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 797.3843570134713 is not greater than 797.393771859724. Delta is -0.009414846252639109
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  74%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                     | 3632/4884 [00:12<00:04, 297.80it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 801.4618797600265 is not greater than 801.4904954442773. Delta is -0.02861568425078076
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 820.2711345399314 is not greater than 820.3044240570753. Delta is -0.03328951714388495
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  75%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                    | 3663/4884 [00:13<00:04, 299.93it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 804.1730534811193 is not greater than 804.2167146468886. Delta is -0.043661165769322
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 807.7495637858646 is not greater than 807.7789798665386. Delta is -0.029416080674081968
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 792.9006473045279 is not greater than 792.9197073551243. Delta is -0.019060050596408473
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  76%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                                   | 3694/4884 [00:13<00:03, 300.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 784.5368837860917 is not greater than 784.9306278479665. Delta is -0.3937440618748269
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 778.297480337635 is not greater than 778.3021939058199. Delta is -0.00471356818491131
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 774.6390815216881 is not greater than 774.6658753066502. Delta is -0.026793784962023892
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  76%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌                                  | 3731/4884 [00:13<00:03, 307.56it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 772.8109506622017 is not greater than 772.852050118766. Delta is -0.04109945656432501
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 769.8622926063836 is not greater than 769.8928310391717. Delta is -0.030538432788148384
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 773.0008313954513 is not greater than 773.0062972970021. Delta is -0.005465901550792296
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  77%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                 | 3771/4884 [00:13<00:03, 308.79it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 760.9397907624119 is not greater than 761.1156187349891. Delta is -0.1758279725771672
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 753.9200676090611 is not greater than 753.9284126006535. Delta is -0.008344991592366569
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  78%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                                | 3802/4884 [00:13<00:03, 298.52it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 731.23966947604 is not greater than 731.3172240243531. Delta is -0.07755454831305997
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 724.3228062202573 is not greater than 724.3619024756684. Delta is -0.039096255411095626
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 718.4258821313823 is not greater than 718.6580500477529. Delta is -0.23216791637059941
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  79%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                               | 3841/4884 [00:13<00:03, 308.16it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 717.277683642081 is not greater than 717.2922555898242. Delta is -0.014571947743206692
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 716.9651425853797 is not greater than 716.972653623641. Delta is -0.007511038261327485
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 709.9869708792878 is not greater than 710.0187982894605. Delta is -0.031827410172695636
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  79%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                              | 3872/4884 [00:13<00:03, 305.64it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 712.2862114233312 is not greater than 712.2925846370974. Delta is -0.0063732137662100286
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  80%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                             | 3908/4884 [00:13<00:03, 320.62it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  81%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                            | 3941/4884 [00:14<00:03, 265.48it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 690.3199634566012 is not greater than 690.3810223389959. Delta is -0.06105888239471824
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  81%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                           | 3971/4884 [00:14<00:03, 247.68it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 746.8236729951035 is not greater than 746.8405075088234. Delta is -0.016834513719913957
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  82%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                          | 4011/4884 [00:14<00:03, 275.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 744.5412179128458 is not greater than 744.5422138184434. Delta is -0.0009959055976196396
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 750.1206103091679 is not greater than 750.1606161590037. Delta is -0.04000584983577937
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  83%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                         | 4041/4884 [00:14<00:03, 277.49it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  83%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋                        | 4071/4884 [00:14<00:03, 261.80it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 769.9903060610706 is not greater than 770.0268328192516. Delta is -0.0365267581810258
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 787.8118311560326 is not greater than 787.8241638365022. Delta is -0.012332680469626212
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 796.4283868150789 is not greater than 796.450547890555. Delta is -0.022161075476105907
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  84%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                       | 4111/4884 [00:14<00:02, 296.24it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 801.1381305010502 is not greater than 801.1620583816912. Delta is -0.023927880640940202
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=4360 2021-09-21] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  85%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊                      | 4142/4884 [00:14<00:02, 264.60it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 805.6480148253827 is not greater than 805.6701898071893. Delta is -0.02217498180664279
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  86%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▉                     | 4181/4884 [00:14<00:02, 288.97it/s]

[t=4430 2021-12-30] HMM fit failed: transmat_ rows must sum to 1 (got row sums of [0. 1. 1.])

Model is not converging.  Current: 809.0980944962226 is not greater than 809.1099723055564. Delta is -0.011877809333782352
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 815.0407607423431 is not greater than 815.0702852913106. Delta is -0.02952454896751533
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 810.7819558605585 is not greater than 810.788586591124. Delta is -0.0066307305655755044
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 802.6975694443275 is not greater than 802.7707855977347. Delta is -0.073216153407202
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  86%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                   | 4221/4884 [00:15<00:02, 303.31it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 793.2307784630826 is not greater than 793.2510169181921. Delta is -0.020238455109506504
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 802.7248359717228 is not greater than 802.7810964171108. Delta is -0.056260445388033986
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 781.5851615826687 is not greater than 781.5908199718465. Delta is -0.005658389177824574
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  87%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏                  | 4253/4884 [00:15<00:02, 304.97it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 772.3219432411161 is not greater than 772.3264970109736. Delta is -0.004553769857579937
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 779.351398038232 is not greater than 779.3516021177596. Delta is -0.00020407952763434878
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  88%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎                 | 4291/4884 [00:15<00:01, 302.57it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 766.1084446955948 is not greater than 766.17959212458. Delta is -0.07114742898522763
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  89%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍                | 4331/4884 [00:15<00:01, 319.95it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 737.247418423971 is not greater than 737.26645824914. Delta is -0.0190398251689885
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 733.9248382121642 is not greater than 733.937086290365. Delta is -0.012248078200741475
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  89%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋               | 4371/4884 [00:15<00:01, 324.70it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 723.619093044799 is not greater than 723.6212146448659. Delta is -0.0021216000668573542
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 723.3977769112156 is not greater than 723.4575214772715. Delta is -0.0597445660558833
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 723.0578790652085 is not greater than 723.1533413515081. Delta is -0.09546228629960751
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  90%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊              | 4411/4884 [00:15<00:01, 325.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 726.6665248552312 is not greater than 726.7020777045942. Delta is -0.03555284936305725
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 734.3843077216007 is not greater than 734.434401179054. Delta is -0.050093457453272094
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  91%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████             | 4451/4884 [00:15<00:01, 326.00it/s]/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 737.2633557109153 is not greater than 737.2692976818313. Delta is -0.005941970915955608
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  92%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▎           | 4491/4884 [00:15<00:01, 333.33it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 745.5051935900491 is not greater than 745.5356460916142. Delta is -0.03045250156515067
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=4730 2023-03-13] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs
[t=4760 2023-04-25] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 746.3188043150009 is not greater than 746.3305639112497. Delta is -0.011759596248793969
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  93%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍          | 4531/4884 [00:15<00:01, 322.84it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 782.0361079298468 is not greater than 782.089065866843. Delta is -0.05295793699622209
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 790.1549792596038 is not greater than 790.1551042080611. Delta is -0.00012494845725541381
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 795.5834418791926 is not greater than 795.695700656363. Delta is -0.11225877717038202
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 797.4268408723237 is not greater than 797.476964794972. Delta is -0.05012392264825394
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  94%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▋         | 4571/4884 [00:16<00:00, 339.46it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 804.3498324155103 is not greater than 804.3806005636463. Delta is -0.03076814813607598

[t=4820 2023-07-21] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 812.7402551691729 is not greater than 812.788558857582. Delta is -0.04830368840907795
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  94%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊        | 4611/4884 [00:16<00:00, 346.51it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 824.8333508943068 is not greater than 824.867020533942. Delta is -0.033669639635149906
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 838.100538038966 is not greater than 838.1153173195801. Delta is -0.014779280614106938
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 845.8326685119076 is not greater than 845.9577675760228. Delta is -0.12509906411514748
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 859.6636299828175 is not greater than 859.7156304262901. Delta is -0.05200044347259336
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  95%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████       | 4651/4884 [00:16<00:00, 336.76it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 855.8353460579087 is not greater than 855.8682214797045. Delta is -0.0328754217957794
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 876.8120681306474 is not greater than 876.8178723349776. Delta is -0.005804204330161156
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 881.4535736743111 is not greater than 881.5118224607947. Delta is -0.05824878648365939
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  96%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▏     | 4691/4884 [00:16<00:00, 346.63it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 887.0046876656588 is not greater than 887.0048320495092. Delta is -0.00014438385039738932
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 890.8070582524824 is not greater than 890.8291022163776. Delta is -0.022043963895157503
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 885.6630520178768 is not greater than 885.7770114022813. Delta is -0.11395938440455211
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 892.3214383287709 is not greater than 892.4912104850913. Delta is -0.16977215632039133
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  97%|█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▍    | 4731/4884 [00:16<00:00, 344.83it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 883.4388372110525 is not greater than 883.5079004769894. Delta is -0.06906326593696122
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])

[t=4970 2024-02-26] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 885.2781798532276 is not greater than 885.4043658956599. Delta is -0.12618604243232312
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 854.3308114004165 is not greater than 854.3440818361837. Delta is -0.01327043576725373
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 872.064212739195 is not greater than 872.0688608389794. Delta is -0.0046480997843900695
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  98%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▌   | 4771/4884 [00:16<00:00, 346.39it/s]/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
/Users/jeremy.duriez/opt/anaconda3/lib/python3.9/site-packages/hmmlearn/hmm.py:352: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  self.means_ = ((means_weight * means_prior + stats['obs'])
Some rows of transmat_ have zero sum because no transition from the state was ever observed.
Model is not converging.  Current: 871.1312919442233 is not greater than 871.6151833296015. Delta is -0.48389138537811505
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 862.493964949194 is not greater than 862.6138710928851. Delta is -0.11990614369108243
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  99%|███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊  | 4811/4884 [00:16<00:00, 335.57it/s]Model is not converging.  Current: 865.1568031254286 is not greater than 865.2016847874611. Delta is -0.04488166203248056
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 861.5374211290185 is not greater than 861.5617580476747. Delta is -0.024336918656217676
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 856.2218886152059 is not greater than 856.2259826225419. Delta is -0.00409400733599341
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM:  99%|████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▊ | 4845/4884 [00:16<00:00, 322.73it/s]

[t=5090 2024-08-16] HMM fit failed: array must not contain infs or NaNs

Model is not converging.  Current: 859.0333826807192 is not greater than 859.0637296947912. Delta is -0.03034701407193552
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 871.5836982797307 is not greater than 871.8612841502603. Delta is -0.2775858705296059
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 874.8522284598112 is not greater than 875.0185031526962. Delta is -0.1662746928850538
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Model is not converging.  Current: 874.1610633237485 is not greater than 874.301636207605. Delta is -0.140572883856521
/var/folders/vw/zzmp8l0n22dfgqwqwtcs06340000gn/T/ipykernel_65341/497333274.py:87: FutureWarning: Calling float on a single element Series is deprecated and will raise a TypeError in the future. Use float(ser.iloc[0]) instead
  price = float(data['Close'].iloc[t])
Rolling SV‑HMM: 100%|██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████| 4884/4884 [00:17<00:00, 287.04it/s]

SV‑HMM Approx. with daily P&L & costs
Annual Return    = 35.00%
Annual Volatility= 37.02%
Sharpe Ratio     = 0.95
Last σ forecast  = 0.0058